I’m back again with another look at the upcoming trading week on the Forex market. Today we will be looking at two possible trade setups, one currency pair that we should watch and a quick update on my GBP/USD bearish trade that I took last week.
I noted in yesterday's comments that neither US bonds or the gold market were acting like the typical safe haven trade that one would have normally expected to see during a time of crisis ( debt ceiling, government shutdown, etc.).
Gold was sold off on fears of a slowing economy as were the majority of commodities in yesterday's trading. Bonds were also dumped.
Today, we seem to have the exact opposite price action occurring - gold is up, the majority of commodity markets are in the green and the bond market was soaring earlier in the session. It is almost as if the big macro trade was back on today with the lower US Dollar spurring buying of commodities rather indiscriminately as was prone to happen during past episodes of that particular trade.
What I find almost bizarre is seeing report after report about analysts/investors worried about the current government shutdown being prolonged and a risk of a failure to get any sort of agreement to raise the debt ceiling which would result in either a credit downgrade of the US rating or default. such fears are preposterous in my view as the US takes in plenty of money to service its interest payments. However, think about this - the supposed fear is one of default or a credit downgrade and yet the lemmings cannot seem to stuff enough of these US government IOU's (bonds, notes, etc.) into their ...
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