According to seasonal analysis, precious metals usually peak in the late spring. However, a study of the past 12 years shows that its more apt to say that spring is a turning point.
By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
1. Huge rallies begin from these conditions
Below is the NYSE Gold Miners Index which is tracked by the GDX ETF. Look at the RSI. Not only did it reach a multi-decade low but it has remained oversold far longer than during the comparable periods.
In the four previous periods, the market rebounded suddenly and strongly in percentage terms. Meanwhile, the bullish percent index, a breath indicator is more oversold than in 2008. We plot the indicator with a 10-week moving average that shows it as far more oversold than in 2008. While this indicator does not go back that far, odds are it is likely at a 13-year low.
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