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Uneasy Money - The State We’re In

Uneasy Money - The State We’re In | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it
Among modern macroeconomists, Williamson observes, the freshwater-saltwater distinction is no longer meaningful or relevant. Everyone is now, more or less, on the same page; differences are worked out collegially in seminars, workshops, conferences and in the top academic journals without the rancor and disrespect in which Krugman indulges himself
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Jesse's Café Américain: Money Supply Figures: Monetary Inflation But Real Economy Is Dysfunctional

Jesse's Café Américain: Money Supply Figures: Monetary Inflation But Real Economy Is Dysfunctional | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it

The 'velocity of money' is a calculation that shows the relationship between money supply and real economic activity as a ratio. It is falling to new lows. Some might even use the word 'plummet.' There is lots of new money, but not so much real activity.  The standard economic answer would be that the US is in a liquidity trap, and the recovery will have lags in employment gains.   The money is added, and then recovery follows, with employment showing the longest delay.  The standard remedy would be to create more jobs, artificially if necessary.

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This Table Demonstrates With Colors Why You Should Diversify Your Commodities Portfolio

This Table Demonstrates With Colors Why You Should Diversify Your Commodities Portfolio | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it
USFunds Periodic Commodities Table
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Calculated Risk: Personal Income increased 2.6% in December, Spending increased 0.2%

Calculated Risk: Personal Income increased 2.6% in December, Spending increased 0.2% | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it
This graph shows real PCE by month for the last few years. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.   PCE for both October and November was revised up slightly.

PCE will probably be a little weak in Q1 because of the payroll tax increase, however, I still expect PCE to increase between 1.5% to 2.0% annualized in Q1.
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Bill Gross: "Credit Supernova!" | Zero Hedge

Bill Gross: "Credit Supernova!" | Zero Hedge | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it
Our credit-based financial markets and the economy it supports are levered, fragile and increasingly entropic – it is running out of energy and time. When does money run out of time?
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Josh Brown Explains The Huge Mistake That A Bunch Of Investors Are Going To Make Right Now

Josh Brown Explains The Huge Mistake That A Bunch Of Investors Are Going To Make Right Now | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it
Everyone is bullish? Uh-oh, sell!
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Crumbling Infrastructure Has Real and Enduring Costs

Crumbling Infrastructure Has Real and Enduring Costs | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it

Anyone who travels abroad can see that the United States no longer has a world-class infrastructure. And there’s hard evidence to back up that impression. The World Economic Forum compiles a massive annual “Global Competitiveness Report.” The 2012-2013 edition finds that the United States has fallen well behind many members of the European Union, Canada, and Asian countries such as Singapore, Japan, and South Korea in the overall quality of its infrastructure. We rank 18th in railroads, 19th in ports, 20th in roads, 30th in airports, and 33rd in the quality of our electrical system.

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Experimental and Behavioral Economics: Bargaining and Taxi-Cabs: three papers

Experimental and Behavioral Economics: Bargaining and Taxi-Cabs: three papers | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it

There are three papers that have recently used taxicabs, or Autorickshaws, as it is, to study bargaining and discrimination in prices among various customers. Well, three I have been aware of, at least...

These are (in alphabetical order)

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The crazy economics of mining asteroids for gold and platinum

The crazy economics of mining asteroids for gold and platinum | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it
Not one but two companies have now decided that they're going to mine asteroids to collect gold and platinum.
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Friday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Winston Churchill's land tax; Morgan Stanley's 'nuclear holocaust' bonds; 5 years of 'Brexit' uncertainty; Jon Stewart's 'Global Warming hoax'; China's corrupt Hukou s...

Friday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Winston Churchill's land tax; Morgan Stanley's 'nuclear holocaust' bonds; 5 years of 'Brexit' uncertainty; Jon Stewart's 'Global Warming hoax'; China's corrupt Hukou s... | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it

3. Five years of uncertainty ahead of 'Brexit' - Reuters' Hugo Dixon explains what British Prime Minister David Cameron's pledge to hold an 'in-out' referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union means for the economy.

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Reemerging from negative equity – Over 1.4 million American borrowers pull out of negative equity in 2012. Will this have an impact on nationwide inventory?

Reemerging from negative equity – Over 1.4 million American borrowers pull out of negative equity in 2012. Will this have an impact on nationwide inventory? | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it

The big story of 2012 was the incredible decline in available housing inventory for sale.  This trend appears to be continuing and is adding a tremendous amount of pressure on the current market especially for those looking to buy.  Ironically, the increase of real estate values will also revive many home owners from their zombie slumber in negative equity.  Over 1.4 million borrowers came out of a negative equity position in 2012.  This is a large number given...

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Calafia Beach Pundit: The big news is a weaker yen

Calafia Beach Pundit: The big news is a weaker yen | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it

This next chart shows how the value of the yen has been an important factor driving the Japanese equity market. Beginning in 2007, the yen surged from 123 to its all-time high against the dollar in late 2011—a staggering increase of 62%. This coincided quite closely to the 55% decline in the value of the Japanese stock market over the same period. Tight money not only gave Japan a case of deflation, it severely depressed the value of the Japanese equity market. Now, with the yen down 13% since mid-November, the Nikkei 225 is up 26% in dollar terms—a remarkable reversal of fortune.

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Marc to Market: Great Graphic: Yen Since Onset of the Financial Crisis

Marc to Market: Great Graphic: Yen Since Onset of the Financial Crisis | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it

This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows the US dollar against the Japanese yen since the beginning of the financial crisis.  The dollar fell almost 40% from the peak in 2007 until the low in 2011.  

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“Screwed-up” logic

“Screwed-up” logic | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it

To him, debt is the driver of the process. Increase debt, generate inflation to erode the value of the debt and come out with “superior” growth!

He forgets that debt is endogenous. Why did the debt ratio rise during the “Great Moderation?” Maybe for the same reason that after being flat (in nominal terms) all through the “Great Inflation”), stock prices trended up for seventeen straight years between 1982 and 1999.

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Calculated Risk: LPS: Fewer Delinquencies in 2012, Highest level of Mortgage Originations since 2007

Calculated Risk: LPS: Fewer Delinquencies in 2012, Highest level of Mortgage Originations since 2007 | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it

LPS released their Mortgage Monitor report for December today. According to LPS, 7.17% of mortgages were delinquent in December, up from 7.12% in November, and down from 7.89% in December 2011.

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Noahpinion: Are jobless recoveries the Fed's fault?

Noahpinion: Are jobless recoveries the Fed's fault? | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it

So while I also think the Fed has probably been a little too focused on inflation since the experience of the 70s, my gut tells me we need to look elsewhere for the source of the jobless recovery phenomenon. My own guess is that financial...

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Stocks and Capital Flight - Old and New - Bruce Krasting

Stocks and Capital Flight - Old and New - Bruce Krasting | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it
  In my time I’ve watched a bunch of countries go south. In the 80’s it was all of South America. Poland, Yugoslavia and South Africa also hit the skids during those years.   There was an...
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Crumbling Infrastructure Has Real and Enduring Costs

Crumbling Infrastructure Has Real and Enduring Costs | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it
William Galston writes about America's sagging infrastructure and how a lack in its investment burdens the U.S. economy.
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MORGAN STANLEY: 'The Odds Favor A Government Shutdown'

MORGAN STANLEY: 'The Odds Favor A Government Shutdown' | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it

The government managed to get us passed the "fiscal cliff." But they did so by creating three more smaller, but still substantial "cliffs."

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The Real Reason Economics Is The Dismal Science…

The Real Reason Economics Is The Dismal Science… | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it
Just kidding- this is the real reason that economics is called the dismal science, but just go with me here. Economists are quick to point out that the true cost of something, whether it be a physi...
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The Teen Economists: Just Google It...

The Teen Economists: Just Google It... | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it
How Google searches can predict economic indicators and give us an accurate picture of today’s economy.
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Bill Ackman And Carl Icahn Just Brawled On CNBC In The Greatest Moment In Financial TV History

Bill Ackman And Carl Icahn Just Brawled On CNBC In The Greatest Moment In Financial TV History | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it
Must watch TV!
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The Fundamental View: Business Insider: Conspiracy Theories Relating To Germany’s Gold Repatriation are “Bunk”

The Fundamental View: Business Insider: Conspiracy Theories Relating To Germany’s Gold Repatriation are “Bunk” | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it

I choose again to harp on my comments made in my first post that spoke to no matter how the Germans chose to repatriate some of their gold, the story was going to spun by the usual conspiracy suspects in order for them to attempt to justify their long standing claims that the vaults in New York were empty.  Business Insider’s title actually goes right to the point.

Deutsche Bank commodity analysts Daniel Brebner and Xiao Fu recently weighed in on the German Bundesbank's decision for Business Insider and here’s what they had to say:

Brebner and Xiao write:

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Tim Toots His Horn - Bruce Krasting

Tim Toots His Horn - Bruce Krasting | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it

Today is the last day that Tim Geithner will be Treasury Secretary. The Treasury Department has a blog post that highlights Tim’s contributions. Coming from his co-workers, you’d expect fluff and accolades, and that is what was dished up (I’m sure Tim edited every word). The post lists 75 “accomplishments”. I found a few of those interesting.

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CONVERSABLE ECONOMIST: Over 65 and Working

CONVERSABLE ECONOMIST: Over 65 and Working | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it

The rising labor force participation of the elderly in the last two decades represents a remarkable social change. Here's a figure created with the ever-useful FRED website at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, showing the labor force participation rate of those over age 55, going back to the late 1940s.Through the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, the notion that more and more people would retire earlier and earlier seemed like an inexorable social trend.

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TheMoneyIllusion » Government spending in rich countries

TheMoneyIllusion » Government spending in rich countries | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it

It’s widely known that governments in rich countries spend much more than governments in poor countries, even as a share of GDP. There are a number of possible explanations of this pattern. Perhaps rich countries choose to consume more government services, such as education, health care and pensions.  Or maybe it’s hard to extract a lot of tax revenue in poor countries where corruption in endemic and many people are peasant farmers or unregistered small businesses.  (The fact that the least corrupt rich countries (the Nordics) are especially adept at collecting tax revenue is suggestive.)

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InvestorCentric: US Fiscal Policy Fine, Experts Say

InvestorCentric: US Fiscal Policy Fine, Experts Say | Featured at fifthestate.co | Scoop.it

By the way, where were the deficit hawks during the Bush years? Here's what Martin Wolf means by "If anything, the tightening has been too much and too fast":

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