cyberscratchpad
Follow
Find
92 views | +0 today
cyberscratchpad
nervous textile
Curated by Wolf Hesse
Your new post is loading...
Your new post is loading...
Rescooped by Wolf Hesse from Papers
Scoop.it!

How to Save Human Lives with Complexity Science

We discuss models and data of crowd disasters, crime, terrorism, war and disease spreading to show that conventional recipes, such as deterrence strategies, are not effective and sufficient to contain them. The failure of many conventional approaches results from their neglection of feedback loops, instabilities and/or cascade effects, due to which equilibrium models do often not provide a good picture of the actual system behavior. However, the complex and often counter-intuitive behavior of social systems and their macro-level collective dynamics can be understood by means of complexity science, which enables one to address the aforementioned problems more successfully. We highlight that a suitable system design and management can help to stop undesirable cascade effects and to enable favorable kinds of self-organization in the system. In such a way, complexity science can help to save human lives.

 

How to Save Human Lives with Complexity Science
Dirk Helbing, Dirk Brockmann, Thomas Chadefaux, Karsten Donnay, Ulf Blanke, Olivia Woolley-Meza, Mehdi Moussaid, Anders Johansson, Jens Krause, Sebastian Schutte, Matjaz Perc

http://arxiv.org/abs/1402.7011


Via Complexity Digest
Wolf Hesse's insight:

#activism

#scrape #prep

more...
Eli Levine's curator insight, March 2, 2014 8:56 PM

This makes more intuitive sense than the linear-equilibrium stuff, in all honesty.  The more we know, the better we'll be at resolving these common problems.

 

Think about it.

Liz Rykert's curator insight, March 3, 2014 5:34 PM

Here is the critical summary: "We highlight that a suitable system design and management can help to stop undesirable cascade effects and to enable favorable kinds of self-organization in the system. In such a way, complexity science can help to save human lives."

Scooped by Wolf Hesse
Scoop.it!

Dengue Outbreak in Singapore · Global Voices

Dengue Outbreak in Singapore · Global Voices | cyberscratchpad | Scoop.it
Singapore recorded 4,632 dengue cases in 2012. This year it went up to 9,847 already. This is a record high for Singapore which last experienced a dengue outbreak in 2005.
more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Wolf Hesse
Scoop.it!

Bracket's PHPServer

A php live dev server. Now available for download at https://github.com/AboutWebLLC/brackets-PHPServer
Wolf Hesse's insight:

theme developers!

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Wolf Hesse
Scoop.it!

Chinese Hackers Infiltrate New York Times Computers

Chinese Hackers Infiltrate New York Times Computers | cyberscratchpad | Scoop.it
The timing of the attacks coincided with reporting for an investigation that found that the relatives of China’s prime minister had accumulated a fortune worth several billion dollars through business dealings.
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Wolf Hesse from Papers
Scoop.it!

Complexity and the Limits of Revolution: What Will Happen to the Arab Spring?

The recent social unrest across the Middle East and North Africa has deposed dictators who had ruled for decades. While the events have been hailed as an "Arab Spring" by those who hope that repressive autocracies will be replaced by democracies, what sort of regimes will eventually emerge from the crisis remains far from certain. Here we provide a complex systems framework, validated by historical precedent, to help answer this question. We describe the dynamics of governmental change as an evolutionary process similar to biological evolution, in which complex organizations arise by replication, variation and competitive selection. Different kinds of governments, however, have differing levels of complexity. Democracies must be more systemically complex than autocracies because of their need to incorporate large numbers of people in decision-making. This difference has important implications for the relative robustness of democratic and autocratic governments after revolutions. Revolutions may disrupt existing evolved complexity, limiting the potential for building more complex structures quickly. Insofar as systemic complexity is reduced by revolution, democracy is harder to create in the wake of unrest than autocracy. Applying this analysis to the Middle East and North Africa, we infer that in the absence of stable institutions or external assistance, new governments are in danger of facing increasingly insurmountable challenges and reverting to autocracy.

Alexander S. Gard-Murray, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Complexity and the Limits of Revolution: What Will Happen to the Arab Spring? arXiv (in press) , December 11, 2012.
http://www.necsi.edu/research/social/revolutions/
Via Complexity Digest
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Wolf Hesse from Competitive intelligence news
Scoop.it!

McKinsey: Social media spying to become crucial competitor intelligence approach

McKinsey: Social media spying to become crucial competitor intelligence approach | cyberscratchpad | Scoop.it
The role of social media insights is set to expand beyond simply consumer data and product feedback to become a key input into competitive strategy, McKinsey predicts.

Via Aqute Intelligence
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Wolf Hesse from Digital Marketing & Communications
Scoop.it!

Social Media Isn’t About Campaigns It’s About Strategy

Social Media Isn’t About Campaigns It’s About Strategy | cyberscratchpad | Scoop.it
When I talk to people about social media or see how companies are using the tools, the pervasive impression is that it is still used primarily in a campaign orientated way. Social media folks will be required to show evidence of their Facebook campaign or some viral video on YouTube in order to be regarded as a success.

Via Alex Butler
more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Wolf Hesse
Scoop.it!

Revolutionizing Cities -- The Sharing Economy

Sharing - the new way.  In the last few years in San Francisco, innovation enabled by technology has fundamentally changed what, where and how we share.
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Wolf Hesse from Papers
Scoop.it!

Social Relationships and the Emergence of Social Networks

In complex social systems such as those of many mammals, including humans, groups (and hence ego-centric social networks) are commonly structured in discrete layers. We describe a computational model for the development of social relationships based on agents' strategies for social interaction that favour more less-intense, or fewer more-intense partners. A trust-related process controls the formation and decay of relationships as a function of interaction frequency, the history of interaction, and the agents' strategies. A good fit of the observed layers of human social networks was found across a range of model parameter settings. Social interaction strategies which favour interacting with existing strong ties or a time-variant strategy produced more observation-conformant results than strategies favouring more weak relationships. Strong-tie strategies spread in populations under a range of fitness conditions favouring wellbeing, whereas weak-tie strategies spread when fitness favours foraging for food. The implications for modelling the emergence of social relationships in complex structured social networks are discussed.

 

Alistair Sutcliffe, Di Wang and Robin Dunbar (2012)

Social Relationships and the Emergence of Social Networks

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 15 (4) 3
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/15/4/3.html


Via Complexity Digest
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Wolf Hesse from Papers
Scoop.it!

When Networks Network

When Networks Network | cyberscratchpad | Scoop.it

When networks depend on other networks, such as a communications network that relies on a power grid, failure can cascade back and forth between the two. This behavior may explain sudden breakdowns in interacting systems. Thus, the effects of an attack on a single node can reduce an übernetwork  that starts with 12 operating nodes to just four.

Once studied solo, systems display surprising behavior when they interact.

 


Via FuturICT, Complexity Digest
more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Wolf Hesse
Scoop.it!

Announcing the release of the .NET Framework for Windows Phone ...

Announcing the release of the .NET Framework for Windows Phone ... | cyberscratchpad | Scoop.it
The .NET blog discusses new features in the .NET Framework and important issues for .NET developers.
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Wolf Hesse from Decision Intelligence
Scoop.it!

Netimperative | News | Today’s top stories

Netimperative | News | Today’s top stories | cyberscratchpad | Scoop.it

Via Lorien Pratt
more...
Lorien Pratt's curator insight, November 24, 2013 6:05 PM

More on the theme of Taleb's thesis: How Big Data can lead to false certainty.

Scooped by Wolf Hesse
Scoop.it!

Bausatz für eine Zivilisation

Bausatz für eine Zivilisation | cyberscratchpad | Scoop.it
Wir können autark leben, ohne unseren Lebensstandard aufgeben zu müssen, ist die Botschaft der Open Source Ecology-Bewegung – dazu braucht es nur das Know-how und dessen Verbreitung.
more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Wolf Hesse
Scoop.it!

SRI International | An Independent Nonprofit Research Institute

SRI International | An Independent Nonprofit Research Institute | cyberscratchpad | Scoop.it
SRI International is an independent, nonprofit research institute that conducts contract research and development for government agencies, businesses and foundations.
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Wolf Hesse from New Modern Education
Scoop.it!

What Is Critical Thinking?

What Is Critical Thinking? | cyberscratchpad | Scoop.it
Professor Paul Gary Wyckoff articulates the critical thinking skills he wants his students to learn.

Via Chen Quan
more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Wolf Hesse
Scoop.it!

$50 Android Smartphones Are Disrupting Africa Much Faster Than You Think, Says Wikipedia’s Jimmy Wales | TechCrunch

$50 Android Smartphones Are Disrupting Africa Much Faster Than You Think, Says Wikipedia’s Jimmy Wales | TechCrunch | cyberscratchpad | Scoop.it
What phone does Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales have in his pocket? An unlocked Android-powered 3G smartphone, made by Huawei – which was selling for $85 on the streets of Kenya last year and now goes for $50.
more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Wolf Hesse
Scoop.it!

Accelerate!

Accelerate! | cyberscratchpad | Scoop.it

Perhaps the greatest challenge business leaders face today is how to stay competitive amid constant turbulence and disruption.

 

/ 2. Build and maintain a guiding coalition.

 

The core of a strategy network is the guiding coalition (GC), which is made up of volunteers from throughout the organization. In my work with clients, people fill out applications to be on the GC. With a sufficient sense of urgency, you may get 10 times as many applications as there are roles in the network’s core.The GC is selected to represent each of the hierarchy’s departments and levels, with a broad range of skills. It must be made up of people whom the leadership trusts, and must include at least a few outstanding leaders and managers. This ensures that the GC can gather and process information as no hierarchy ever could.

more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Wolf Hesse from Peer2Politics
Scoop.it!

Wikipedia and Network Effects

Wikipedia and Network Effects | cyberscratchpad | Scoop.it

Encouragement that the Wikipedia model—a model that relies on the collective wisdom of a large number of unpaid volunteers—could be viable was provided by the NASA ClickWorkers experiment, which ran from November 2000 to September 2001. In the experiment by NASA, unpaid volunteers visited NASA’s website to mark and classify craters and “honeycomb” terrain on Mars. (4) The study produced two surprising and interesting results. First, people are willing to engage in an unpaid, novel, and productive experience merely for the fun of it. Second, an amalgamation of data contributed by many unskilled volunteers can be virtually indistinguishable from the output of a trained worker. Thus, large groups of people are capable of producing high-quality work for free.


Via jean lievens
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Wolf Hesse from Papers
Scoop.it!

Optimization of multiple criteria: Pareto efficiency and fast heuristics should be more popular than they are

It is self-evident that multiple criteria lead to conflicting situations unless they are independent, and complete inde- pendence is quite uncommon in reality. We illustrate by means of a simple example: Driving a car from point A to point B takes time and consumes gasoline. Clearly, everybody wants to reach B as quickly as possible and the gas- oline costs should be minimal. Every car requires more gasoline to drive faster and so we are dealing with two naive pseudo-optima: (i) the shortest time to reach B from A and (ii) the most economic speed to drive from A to B, and needless to say these two optima will be different.

 

Optimization of multiple criteria: Pareto efficiency and fast heuristics should be more popular than they are

Peter Schuster

Complexity
Article first published online: 11 OCT 2012

http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cplx.21426


Via Complexity Digest
more...
No comment yet.