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Rogers 14'01'' - YouTube

14 Minutes from X-Center Network April 23-25, 2014 Annual Conference Vienna Austria _Speaker Roger Jones_Topic Population explosion
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How Wikipedia Data Is Revolutionizing Flu Forecasting | MIT Technology Review

How Wikipedia Data Is Revolutionizing Flu Forecasting | MIT Technology Review | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
Epidemiologist want to forecast disease like meteorologists forecast rain. And the way people browse Wikipedia could be the key, they say.
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Networks of Military Alliances, Wars, and International Trade

We investigate the role of networks of alliances in preventing (multilateral) interstate wars. We first show that, in the absence of international trade, no network of alliances is peaceful and stable. We then show that international trade induces peaceful and stable networks: trade increases the density of alliances so that countries are less vulnerable to attack and also reduces countries' incentives to attack an ally. We present historical data on wars and trade, noting that the dramatic drop in interstate wars since 1950, and accompanying densification and stabilization of alliances, are consistent with the model but not other prominent theories.

 

Networks of Military Alliances, Wars, and International Trade
Matthew O. Jackson, Stephen M. Nei

http://arxiv.org/abs/1405.6400


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Site-specific group selection drives locally adapted group compositions

Group selection may be defined as selection caused by the differential extinction or proliferation of groups. The socially polymorphic spider Anelosimus studiosus exhibits a behavioural polymorphism in which females exhibit either a ‘docile’ or ‘aggressive’ behavioural phenotype. Natural colonies are composed of a mixture of related docile and aggressive individuals, and populations differ in colonies’ characteristic docile:aggressive ratios. Using experimentally constructed colonies of known composition, here we demonstrate that population-level divergence in docile:aggressive ratios is driven by site-specific selection at the group level—certain ratios yield high survivorship at some sites but not others. Our data also indicate that colonies responded to the risk of extinction: perturbed colonies tended to adjust their composition over two generations to match the ratio characteristic of their native site, thus promoting their long-term survival in their natal habitat. However, colonies of displaced individuals continued to shift their compositions towards mixtures that would have promoted their survival had they remained at their home sites, regardless of their contemporary environment. Thus, the regulatory mechanisms that colonies use to adjust their composition appear to be locally adapted. Our data provide experimental evidence of group selection driving collective traits in wild populations.

 

Site-specific group selection drives locally adapted group compositions
• Jonathan N. Pruitt & Charles J. Goodnight

Nature 514, 359–362 (16 October 2014) http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature1381


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Arjen ten Have's curator insight, October 17, 7:49 AM

Now the really interesting part would be of course to explain this emergent groups selection by gene selection. How do we define or, if you wish, describe the Evolutionary Stable Strategy that is behind this interesting phenomenon. What can we as human society learn from this?

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At the Far Ends of a New Universal Law

At the Far Ends of a New Universal Law | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

Systems of many interacting components — be they species, integers or subatomic particles — kept producing the same statistical curve, which had become known as the Tracy-Widom distribution. This puzzling curve seemed to be the complex cousin of the familiar bell curve, or Gaussian distribution, which represents the natural variation of independent random variables like the heights of students in a classroom or their test scores. Like the Gaussian, the Tracy-Widom distribution exhibits “universality,” a mysterious phenomenon in which diverse microscopic effects give rise to the same collective behavior. “The surprise is it’s as universal as it is,” said Tracy, a professor at the University of California, Davis.

 

http://www.quantamagazine.org/20141015-at-the-far-ends-of-a-new-universal-law/


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Gary Bamford's curator insight, October 29, 4:16 AM

Possibly a lesson for the 'Big Data' analytics you intent to perform, when you have the time!

Damien Thouvenin's curator insight, October 29, 10:15 AM

Un article intéressant : la courbe de fréquence d'apparition d'un état dans un réseau interconnectant de nombreux éléments (de nombreux systèmes complexes donc) ne suit pas la fameuse courbe de Gauss mais plutôt celle, asymétrique, de la distribution Tracy-Widom. Le modèle a été prouvé pour un certain nombre de cas mais on ne sait pas encore identifier les critères nécessaires et suffisants à son apparition mais cela semble corroborer les effets de seuil que l'on constate dans les réseaux massivement interconnectés.

 

António F Fonseca's curator insight, November 2, 6:38 AM

A new powerful law. Curiosly very similar to the profile of the quantity of retweets on Twitter.

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Technological integration and hyperconnectivity: Tools for promoting extreme human lifespans

Artificial, neurobiological, and social networks are three distinct complex adaptive systems (CASs), each containing discrete processing units (nodes, neurons, and humans, respectively). Despite the apparent differences, these three networks are bound by common underlying principles which describe the behavior of the system in terms of the connections of its components, and its emergent properties. The longevity (long-term retention and functionality) of the components of each of these systems is also defined by common principles. Here, I will examine some properties of the longevity and function of the components of artificial and neurobiological systems, and generalize these to the longevity and function of the components of social CAS. In other words, I will show that principles governing the long-term functionality of computer nodes and of neurons, may be extrapolated to the study of the long-term functionality of humans (or more precisely, of the noemes, an abstract combination of “existence” and “digital fame”). The study of these phenomena can provide useful insights regarding practical ways that can be used to maximize human longevity. The basic law governing these behaviors is the “Law of Requisite Usefulness,” which states that the length of retention of an agent within a CAS is proportional to the agent's contribution to the overall adaptability of the system.

 

Technological integration and hyperconnectivity: Tools for promoting extreme human lifespans
Marios Kyriazis

Complexity
Early View

http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cplx.21626


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Liz Rykert's curator insight, November 2, 11:58 AM

Interesting article that looks at neural networks and computer networks and human networks and concludes one can learn form these two and apply them to human networks.


Quote: "show that principles governing the long-term functionality of computer nodes and of neurons, may be extrapolated to the study of the long-term functionality of humans"

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Reducing Cascading Failure Risk by Increasing Infrastructure Network Interdependency

Increased coupling between critical infrastructure networks, such as power and communications, has important implications for the reliability and security of these networks. To understand the implications of power-communications coupling, researchers have studied interdependent network models and reported that increased coupling can increase system vulnerability [1, 2]. However, these results come from models that have substantially different mechanisms of cascading, relative to those found in actual power and communications networks. This paper reports on two sets of experiments that compare the network vulnerability implications resulting from simple topological models and models that more accurately capture the dynamics of cascading in power systems. In the first set of experiments, we compare a simple model of intra-network cascading to a power grid model and find that the power grid model reveals that power grids have a higher level of vulnerability, relative to what would be inferred from a topological contagion model. In a second set of experiments, we compare the coupled topological model from [1] to three different physics-based models of power grids coupled to communication networks. Again, the results show that more accurate models lead to very different conclusions. In all but the most extreme case, the physics-based power grid models suggest that increased power-communications coupling decreases vulnerability. This is opposite from what one would conclude from the model in [1], in which zero coupling is optimal. Finally, an extreme case, in which communications failures immediately cause grid failures, suggests that if systems are poorly designed, increased coupling can be harmful.

 

Reducing Cascading Failure Risk by Increasing Infrastructure Network Interdependency
Mert Korkali, Jason G. Veneman, Brian F. Tivnan, Paul D.H. Hines

http://arxiv.org/abs/1410.6836


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San Francisco Is Smarter Than You Are

San Francisco Is Smarter Than You Are | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

Its achievements are undeniable. Having hosted what some historians call the greatest creation of wealth in human history,1 the San Francisco Bay Area had the fastest growth rate in the United States in 2012,2 the highest per-capita gross domestic product,3 one of the highest average IQs,4 and has been called one of the country’s greenest cities.5 If cities were people, then San Francisco would certainly be called a genius. But are we willing to extend that term to a city, or should we insist that genius is contained within the confines of the human head?


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The Aging Brain

Should we consider aging a natural part of life or an illness? When it comes to the brain, research has tended to focus on the negative side of aging—Alzheimer's disease, for example. Yet all of us know individuals who continue to be mentally sharp their whole lives. And history repeatedly offers proof—Titian, Socrates, da Vinci, and so on—that great creativity and insight can come with maturity.

This special issue of Science therefore looks at the mechanisms and contexts of successful brain aging. The developmental trajectory of the brain through the entire life span is affected by genetic, physical, and psychological factors. One thing we know already is that our mental lives benefit when we lead lives that are not only physically healthy but also intellectually challenging and socially engaged (...)


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Global groundwater crisis may get worse as the world warms

Global groundwater crisis may get worse as the world warms | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

The world is facing an increasingly dire groundwater depletion crisis, according to a NASA researcher. From India to Texas, people are rapidly depleting their valuable stores of groundwater — leading to the possibility that aquifers may be emptied within decades, a NASA researcher has warned.


In a recent commentary in the journal Nature Climate Change, Jay Famiglietti, who has helped lead the use of a NASA satellite system to detect groundwater changes around the world, warned of dramatic consequences to come if changes are not made to the way that societies manage water supplies. “Our overuse of groundwater puts our overall water security at far greater risk than we thought,” Famiglietti says.


Unlike surface water, which is replenished through precipitation, groundwater can take centuries to recharge. Yet humans are depleting groundwater at rates that far exceed the pace at which this water can be replenished.


Think of it this way: groundwater is analogous to a pension, a long-term investment that takes many years to pay off. If you withdraw more than you put in, you'll go bankrupt in the long run. Dams and reservoirs, meanwhile, are more like a checking account.


"Groundwater is being pumped at far greater rates than it can be naturally replenished, so that many of the largest aquifers on most continents are being mined, their precious contents never to be returned," Famiglietti, a researcher at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, wrote.


Famiglietti has used NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite system, which is capable of detecting the most subtle changes in Earth's gravitational field to spot land elevation changes, and thus water depletion, to publish a number of studies on groundwater in recent years. During the summer, for example, he contributed to a study that revealed that water users throughout the Colorado River Basin are tapping into groundwater supplies to make up for the lack of adequate supplies of surface water.


The study found that more than 75% of the water loss in the Colorado River Basin since 2004 came from groundwater. GRACE showed that between December 2004 and November 2013, the Colorado River basin lost nearly 53 million acre feet of freshwater, which is double the total volume of the country’s largest reservoir — Lake Mead in Arizona. More than three-quarters of the total — about 41 million acre feet — was from groundwater.


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Katelyn Sesny's curator insight, October 31, 11:41 AM

A lengthy but interesting article. The issue of the "Global Groundwater Crisis" might become a very huge problem in the near future. - UNIT 1

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The Connected Educator: All About Connectedness

The Connected Educator: All About Connectedness | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

Six educators share the insights, changes, and rewards observed and felt during their journey from unconnectedness to connectedness.


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Nik Peachey's curator insight, October 9, 1:33 PM

Some interesting personal stories from exerienced teachers.

Linda Ashida's curator insight, October 10, 10:32 AM

Examples from several Educators that will inspire others.

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How computers change the way we learn

How computers change the way we learn | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

Can technology improve the way we learn and think? Google’s head of research argues we're headed into a new era of education.


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Willem Kuypers's curator insight, October 31, 6:46 AM

Des applications pour apprendre les langues sont déjà beaucoup utilisées, mais l'article va plus loin.

Ivon Prefontaine's curator insight, November 8, 11:54 AM

This a conversation dating back to Socrates and others. It is not so much that it changes how we think although it does. The more important point is we remain aware and work with that understanding. How does it impact teaching and learning in the classroom?

 

@ivon_ehd1

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Leadership In The Age Of Complexity: From Hero To Host

Leadership In The Age Of Complexity: From Hero To Host | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
For too long, too many of us have been entranced by heroes. Perhaps it's our desire to not have to do the hard work, to rely on someone else to figure things out.

Via Ides De Vos, Philippe Vallat
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X Center Network – Mathematical Model for the Dynamic Behavior of the Demographic Transition by Roger D. Jones

X Center Network – Mathematical Model for the Dynamic Behavior of the Demographic Transition by Roger D. Jones | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
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Mysterious Statistical Law May Finally Have an Explanation | WIRED

Mysterious Statistical Law May Finally Have an Explanation | WIRED | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
Imagine an archipelago where each island hosts a single tortoise species and all the islands are connected — say by rafts of flotsam. As the tortoises interact by dipping into one another’s food supplies, their populations fluctuate.
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How Jetlag Disrupts The Ticks of Your Microbial Clock

How Jetlag Disrupts The Ticks of Your Microbial Clock | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

Your genome is the same right now as it was yesterday, last week, last year, or the day you were born. But your microbiomes—the combined genes of all the trillions of microbes that share your body—have shifted since the sun came up this morning. And they will change again before the next sunrise.

 

http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/10/16/how-jetlag-disrupts-the-ticks-of-your-microbial-clock/


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Neural correlates of strategic reasoning during competitive games

Although human and animal behaviors are largely shaped by reinforcement and punishment, choices in social settings are also influenced by information about the knowledge and experience of other decision-makers. During competitive games, monkeys increased their payoffs by systematically deviating from a simple heuristic learning algorithm and thereby countering the predictable exploitation by their computer opponent. Neurons in the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) signaled the animal’s recent choice and reward history that reflected the computer’s exploitative strategy. The strength of switching signals in the dmPFC also correlated with the animal’s tendency to deviate from the heuristic learning algorithm. Therefore, the dmPFC might provide control signals for overriding simple heuristic learning algorithms based on the inferred strategies of the opponent.

 

Neural correlates of strategic reasoning during competitive games
Hyojung Seo, Xinying Cai, Christopher H. Donahue, Daeyeol Lee

Science 17 October 2014:
Vol. 346 no. 6207 pp. 340-343
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1256254


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On Ethical and Intellectual Failures in Contemporary Economics

Contemporary Anglo-American economics, which I admire, faces two major obstacles. First, in its drive at least since Milton Freedman to be a positive science free of normative issues, it ignores its own current intellectual foundations buried at the heart of its analysis of the “advantages of trade”: Fairness. Second, the major driver of economic growth in the past 50,000 years has been the explosion of goods and production capacities from perhaps 1,000 to 10,000 long ago, to perhaps 10 billion goods and production capacities today. Economics, lacking a theory for this explosion, deals with this explosion by ignoring it and treating it as “exogenous” to its theory.
The “Edgeworth Box” carries the heart of advantages of trade, demonstrating for properly curved isoutility curves a region where you and I are better-off trading some of my apples for some of your pears. The ratio of these in trade constitutes price. But spanning the region of advantages of trade is the famous CONTRACT CURVE, where we have exhausted all the advantages of trade. Different points on the curve correspond to different prices. But the Contract Curve is Pareto Optimal, motion on the curve can only make one of us better-off at the expense of the other. Critically, economics has NO THEORY for where we end up on the Contract Curve. Nor, since different points on the curve correspond to different prices, can PRICE settle the issue.
Using the Ultimatum Game I will show that FAIRNESS typically drives where we settle on the Contract Curve, as long as we do not have to trade with one another. Thus ethics enters economics at its foundation, yet cannot be mathematized, so is ignored in Freedman’s name of a positive science.
Perhaps more important, unlike physics, no laws entail the evolution of either the biosphere or the “econosphere.” There are no laws of motion whose integration would entail that evolution. Lacking an entailing theory of the growth of the economy in diversity, often of new goods and production capacities, economists ignore the most important feature of economic growth, wrongly treating it as “exogenous.”
The failures above are likely to play major roles in the lapse to mere greed in our major financial institutions, and in our inadequate capacities to help drive growth in much of the poverty-struck world.

 

Stuart Kauffman (2014), On Ethical and Intellectual Failures in Contemporary Economics, in Steven Horwitz , Roger Koppl (ed.) Entangled Political Economy (Advances in Austrian Economics, Volume 18) Emerald Group Publishing Limited, pp.259 - 282

 

http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/S1529-213420140000018012


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Data Mining Reveals How News Coverage Varies Around the World

Data Mining Reveals How News Coverage Varies Around the World | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
One interesting question about the nature of news is how well it reflects the pattern of real events around the world. It’s natural to assume that people living in a certain part of the world are more likely to read, see and hear about news from their own region. But what of the international news they get—how does that compare to the international news that people in other parts of the world receive?

Today, we get an answer to these questions thanks to the work Haewoon Kwak and Jisun An at the Qatar Computing Research Institute in Qatar. These guys have analyzed the news agendas in different parts of the world to see how the coverage reflects actual events in other parts of the world. And to visualize the different news agendas, they’ve created cartograms to reflect the coverage. These are maps in which the land area of a country is distorted by the amount of news coverage it receives in a given region (the image above shows how international news is viewed in North America).

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The Grim Future if Ebola Goes Global

The Grim Future if Ebola Goes Global | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
As a reminder, the African Ebola epidemic is still roaring in three countries; two others have contained the disease, but it has now leaked to a sixth, Mali. The case count is 10,141, with 4,922 deaths. Last month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that if the epidemic continued on its current course, cases would hit 1.4 million by next January. Last week, Yale researchers said in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases that even current promises of international aid will not contain the epidemic

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Dynamics of Interacting Diseases

Dynamics of Interacting Diseases | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it


Forecasting epidemic outbreaks has long been the goal of health researchers. By modeling the interactions of two diseases occurring simultaneously, scientists show that specific parameters control the thresholds of epidemics.

 

Dynamics of Interacting Diseases
Joaquín Sanz, Cheng-Yi Xia, Sandro Meloni, and Yamir Moreno
Phys. Rev. X 4, 041005 (2014)

http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevX.4.041005

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A typology of street patterns

We propose a quantitative method to classify cities according to their street pattern. We use the conditional probability distribution of shape factor of blocks with a given area and define what could constitute the ‘fingerprint’ of a city. Using a simple hierarchical clustering method, these fingerprints can then serve as a basis for a typology of cities. We apply this method to a set of 131 cities in the world, and at an intermediate level of the dendrogram, we observe four large families of cities characterized by different abundances of blocks of a certain area and shape. At a lower level of the classification, we find that most European cities and American cities in our sample fall in their own sub-category, highlighting quantitatively the differences between the typical layouts of cities in both regions. We also show with the example of New York and its different boroughs, that the fingerprint of a city can be seen as the sum of the ones characterizing the different neighbourhoods inside a city. This method provides a quantitative comparison of urban street patterns, which could be helpful for a better understanding of the causes and mechanisms behind their distinct shapes.

 

A typology of street patterns
Rémi Louf, Marc Barthelemy

http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2014.0924

J. R. Soc. Interface 6 December 2014 vol. 11 no. 101 20140924

Also at http://arxiv.org/abs/1410.2094


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Resilient Cities as Complex Systems: Change, (Dis)Order and Disaster

Resilient Cities as Complex Systems: Change, (Dis)Order and Disaster | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
We need to further explore the interplay of threat, hazard and risks in our thinking about resilience, and particularly the governance of the resilient city. In this paper I outline a wider discussion on the typology of resilience. This can be used
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10 Reasons Why Students Aren't Using eTextbooks

10 Reasons Why Students Aren't Using eTextbooks | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

Here are several reasons why students aren't yet warming up to the idea of e-textbooks today.


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Edgar Mata's curator insight, October 18, 3:29 PM

¿Por qué lo estudiantes no utilizan libros de texto electrónicos?

Randy Nichols's curator insight, October 23, 5:08 PM

Ah.

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The Neuroscience Behind Stress and Learning

The Neuroscience Behind Stress and Learning | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

The highest-level executive thinking, making connections, and "aha" moments of insight and creative innovation are more likely to occur in an atmosphere of what Alfie Kohn calls exuberant discovery, where students of all ages retain that kindergarten enthusiasm of embracing each day with the joy of learning.


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Pamela D Lloyd's curator insight, October 31, 4:19 PM

While stress may be useful for learning not to touch a hot stove, it tends to inhibit the kind of learning that is most needed by students in today's world.

Josefina Santos's curator insight, November 25, 12:09 AM

Amazing