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Cities and Stability: Urbanization, Redistribution, and Regime Survival in China: Jeremy Wallace: 9780199378999: Amazon.com: Books

Cities and Stability: Urbanization, Redistribution, and Regime Survival in China

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Cities and Stability: Urbanization, Redistribution, and Regime Survival in China [Jeremy Wallace] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. China's management of urbanization is an under-appreciated factor in the regime's longevity.
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ALNAP | Megacities forum on building urban resilience RA 10121: Achievements, challenges, and implementation progress

Megacities forum on building urban resilience RA 10121: Achievements, challenges, and implementation progress http://t.co/Yq5Tm3zXcN
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The Eccentric Genius Whose Time May Have Finally Come (Again)

The Eccentric Genius Whose Time May Have Finally Come (Again) | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
Resurrecting the legacy of a man who understood, and feared, the future of automation.

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Eli Levine's curator insight, June 15, 2014 10:22 AM

Indeed, what will we do if and when we have no more work to do?  Leisure time Is only so good for humans (in my experience of being stuck with leisure time).

 

While I'm more inclined to accept chips in the brain to enhance and correct for the biological errors in perceiving and working with reality, I'm also leery of the potential for outsiders to hack them if they're not done right, or for an EMP burst to knock people out permanently.  Technology is racing faster than our ability to keep up, consider and figure out the potential kinks BEFORE we make our moves.  Even when this species is being highly intelligent, we still show ourselves to be nothing more than inconsiderate and non-sensing monkeys.

 

Think about it.

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Are Big, Rich Cities Greener Than Poor Ones?

Are Big, Rich Cities Greener Than Poor Ones? | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
When it comes to cities, being big and rich is better for the planet than being big and poor, according to a new study of carbon dioxide emissions from cities around the world. But is this correct?

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Netconomics: Novel Forecasting Techniques from the Combination of Big Data, Network Science and Economics

Netconomics: Novel Forecasting Techniques from the Combination of Big Data, Network Science and Economics | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

The combination of the network theoretic approach with recently available abundant economic data leads to the development of novel analytic and computational tools for modelling and forecasting key economic indicators. The main idea is to introduce a topological component into the analysis, taking into account consistently all higher-order interactions. We present three basic methodologies to demonstrate different approaches to harness the resulting network gain. First, a multiple linear regression optimisation algorithm is used to generate a relational network between individual components of national balance of payment accounts. This model describes annual statistics with a high accuracy and delivers good forecasts for the majority of indicators. Second, an early-warning mechanism for global financial crises is presented, which combines network measures with standard economic indicators. From the analysis of the cross-border portfolio investment network of long-term debt securities, the proliferation of a wide range of over-the-counter-traded financial derivative products, such as credit default swaps, can be described in terms of gross-market values and notional outstanding amounts, which are associated with increased levels of market interdependence and systemic risk. Third, considering the flow-network of goods traded between G-20 economies, network statistics provide better proxies for key economic measures than conventional indicators. For example, it is shown that a country's gate-keeping potential, as a measure for local power, projects its annual change of GDP generally far better than the volume of its imports or exports.


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Resilience of Natural Gas Networks during Conflicts, Crises and Disruptions

Resilience of Natural Gas Networks during Conflicts, Crises and Disruptions | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

Human conflict, geopolitical crises, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters can turn large parts of energy distribution networks offline. Europe's current gas supply network is largely dependent on deliveries from Russia and North Africa, creating vulnerabilities to social and political instabilities. During crises, less delivery may mean greater congestion, as the pipeline network is used in ways it has not been designed for. Given the importance of the security of natural gas supply, we develop a model to handle network congestion on various geographical scales. We offer a resilient response strategy to energy shortages and quantify its effectiveness for a variety of relevant scenarios. In essence, Europe's gas supply can be made robust even to major supply disruptions, if a fair distribution strategy is applied.

 


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How Virtual Gaming Worlds Are Revealing the Nature of Human Hierarchies

How Virtual Gaming Worlds Are Revealing the Nature of Human Hierarchies | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
The way players form into groups in online games reveals that hierarchies are an inevitable product of the human condition, say complexity scientists.

“Remarkably, the online players exhibit the same type of structured hierarchical layers as the societies studied by anthropologists, where each of these layers is three to four times the size of the lower layer,” say Fuchs and co.

That’s an interesting result. That the same hierarchy emerges in wildly different situations suggests that whatever produces this effect is independent of the environment. In other words, it must be an innate property of human social behavior.


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Control Profiles of Complex Networks

Control Profiles of Complex Networks | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

Studying the control properties of complex networks provides insight into how designers and engineers can influence these systems to achieve a desired behavior. Topology of a network has been shown to strongly correlate with certain control properties; here we uncover the fundamental structures that explain the basis of this correlation. We develop the control profile, a statistic that quantifies the different proportions of control-inducing structures present in a network. We find that standard random network models do not reproduce the kinds of control profiles that are observed in real-world networks. The profiles of real networks form three well-defined clusters that provide insight into the high-level organization and function of complex systems.


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Ambiguous words probably make communicating easier

Ambiguous words probably make communicating easier | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

“Ambiguity is, against our intuitions, a major player in making human language so powerful,” says Sole.

Words with multiple meanings are a universal feature of language -- think “ticket,” which could get you into a movie or make you pay a fine, depending on context. The distribution of meanings per word is thought to follow a power law, an observation linguist George Zipf attributed to a “least effort” principle: speaking clearly takes effort, but so does understanding ambiguous speech. The compromise is that some words have multiple meanings, while most don’t.


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Spatial correlation analysis of cascading failures: Congestions and Blackouts

Spatial correlation analysis of cascading failures: Congestions and Blackouts | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
Cascading failures have become major threats to network robustness due to their potential catastrophic consequences, where local perturbations can induce global propagation of failures. Unlike failures spreading via direct contacts due to structural interdependencies, overload failures usually propagate through collective interactions among system components. Despite the critical need in developing protection or mitigation strategies in networks such as power grids and transportation, the propagation behavior of cascading failures is essentially unknown. Here we find by analyzing our collected data that jams in city traffic and faults in power grid are spatially long-range correlated with correlations decaying slowly with distance. Moreover, we find in the daily traffic, that the correlation length increases dramatically and reaches maximum, when morning or evening rush hour is approaching. Our study can impact all efforts towards improving actively system resilience ranging from evaluation of design schemes, development of protection strategies to implementation of mitigation programs.

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tom cockburn's curator insight, June 25, 2014 2:08 PM

Could be far reaching in its significance

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Don't Believe Everything You Hear; Preserving Relevant Information by Discarding Social Information

Integrating information gained by observing others via Social Bayesian Learning can be beneficial for an agent's performance, but can also enable population wide information cascades that perpetuate false beliefs through the agent population. We show how agents can influence the observation network by changing their probability of observing others, and demonstrate the existence of a population-wide equilibrium, where the advantages and disadvantages of the Social Bayesian update are balanced. We also use the formalism of relevant information to illustrate how negative information cascades are characterized by processing increasing amounts of non-relevant information.

 

Don't Believe Everything You Hear; Preserving Relevant Information by Discarding Social Information
Christoph Salge, Daniel Polani

http://arxiv.org/abs/1406.1034


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Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems can Contribute

We discuss models and data of crowd disasters, crime, terrorism, war and disease spreading to show that conventional recipes, such as deterrence strategies, are often not effective and sufficient to contain them. Many common approaches do not provide a good picture of the actual system behavior, because they neglect feedback loops, instabilities and cascade effects. The complex and often counter-intuitive behavior of social systems and their macro-level collective dynamics can be better understood by means of complexity science. We highlight that a suitable system design and management can help to stop undesirable cascade effects and to enable favorable kinds of self-organization in the system. In such a way, complexity science can help to save human lives.

 

Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems can Contribute
Dirk Helbing, Dirk Brockmann, Thomas Chadefaux, Karsten Donnay, Ulf Blanke, Olivia Woolley-Meza, Mehdi Moussaid, Anders Johansson, Jens Krause, Sebastian Schutte, Matjaž Perc

Journal of Statistical Physics
June 2014,

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10955-014-1024-9


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Power and Fairness in a Generalized Ultimatum Game

Power is the ability to influence others towards the attainment of specific goals, and it is a fundamental force that shapes behavior at all levels of human existence. Several theories on the nature of power in social life exist, especially in the context of social influence. Yet, in bargaining situations, surprisingly little is known about its role in shaping social preferences. Such preferences are considered to be the main explanation for observed behavior in a wide range of experimental settings. In this work, we set out to understand the role of bargaining power in the stylized environment of a Generalized Ultimatum Game (GUG). We modify the payoff structure of the standard Ultimatum Game (UG) to investigate three situations: two in which the power balance is either against the proposer or against the responder, and a balanced situation. We find that other-regarding preferences, as measured by the amount of money donated by participants, do not change with the amount of power, but power changes the offers and acceptance rates systematically. Notably, unusually high acceptance rates for lower offers were observed. This finding suggests that social preferences may be invariant to the balance of power and confirms that the role of power on human behavior deserves more attention.

 

 

Power and Fairness in a Generalized Ultimatum Game
Giovanni Luca Ciampaglia, Sergi Lozano, Dirk Helbing
PLoS ONE 9(6): e99039
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0099039   ;

 


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Science and responsibility - The Asian Age

Science and responsibility - The Asian Age | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
Science and responsibility
The Asian Age
Science realises it is a muddy system, complex in its intentions and consequences. Complexity and risk sciences have revealed science deals with uncertain knowledge.
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X Center Network

X Center Network | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

The X-Center Network is a global community of multi disciplinary researchers & practitioners (mathematicians, environmental systems scientists, economists, business operations researchers, psychologists, professors, sociologists)  from Austria, Finland, Germany, UK, Japan, Korea, France, Singapore and the US who have joined forces to build tools for decision makers and to research uncertainties, complexities and extreme events and their impact on human system

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Data Mining Reveals How Conspiracy Theories Emerge on Facebook

Data Mining Reveals How Conspiracy Theories Emerge on Facebook | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
Some people are more susceptible to conspiracy theories than others, say computational social scientists who have studied how false ideas jump the “credulity barrier” on Facebook.

Conspiracy theories seem to come about by a process in which ordinary satirical commentary or obviously false content somehow jumps the credulity barrier. And that seems to happen through groups of people who deliberately expose themselves to alternative sources of news.


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Eli Levine's curator insight, March 18, 2014 4:35 PM

Some people live closer to reality than others.

 

Not surprising.

 

But interesting from a social psychological point of view, which then feeds into a political view, which then leads to credulity and viability for an individual or an individual's beliefs.

 

Think about it.

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Creativity, like evolution, is merely a series of thefts

Creativity, like evolution, is merely a series of thefts | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
We can blame evolution for making us little more than the glorified karaoke singers we are. Or as Voltaire put it: "originality is nothing but judicious imitation"

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Eli Levine's curator insight, March 15, 2014 1:02 PM

It's all one built upon the other.


What I've been proposing for government is not going to alter the base goals of the political leaders.  In fact, I think it's going to improve their chances of being elected until death, if they follow it correctly, and ultimately preserve our social institutions until the eventual end of the species and, if our descendents are still around, beyond that.

 

What I'm observing, as a political and social scientist, is that through benevolently motivated, effectively sensed and executed policy for the sake of the other in the society, that governments tend to be able to last longer, be more legitimate in the eyes of the public and, ultimately, get carried on, with its members, throughout the generations.

 

Some people simply do not and will not have what it takes to act as these effective, benevolent and empirically grounded leaders, regardless of party affiliation and label.  That is how, I think, our current institutions are failing, because we've populated these political systems with people who don't care, won't care and/or don't have the sense to act for the effective sake of the other for their own sakes.  It's in our legislative systems as well as our administrative systems.  It's killing themselves as much as it's killing our people.  And it's just a brain type who doesn't get the concept of working with others, rather than over or against them.

 

Think about it.

Arjen ten Have's curator insight, March 18, 2014 9:08 AM

Basic but nice essay on how objects of use, creativity and biological evolution are all hung up on the same principles: Hey this works better, what if I combine it with that?

Costas Bouyioukos's curator insight, March 18, 2014 1:40 PM

Mark Pagel writes about our "ability" to innovate.

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Google Flu Trends gets it wrong three years running

Google Flu Trends gets it wrong three years running | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
The search giant's much-hyped flu tracker has been way out on its predictions for years – raising concerns over our reliance on big data

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The Science of ‘Paying It Forward’

The Science of ‘Paying It Forward’ | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
How generosity among strangers becomes socially contagious.

In recent years, social scientists have conducted experiments demonstrating that the effect of a single act of kindness can in fact ripple through a social network, setting off chains of generosity that reach far beyond the original act. But whether it is enough to merely witness a generous act, rather than actually benefit from one, has been an open question.


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Ancient food webs developed modern structure soon after mass extinction

Ancient food webs developed modern structure soon after mass extinction | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
Researchers from the Santa Fe Institute and the Smithsonian Institution have pieced together a highly detailed picture of feeding relationships among 700 mammal, bird, reptile, fish, insect, and plant species from a 48 million year old lake and forest ecosystem.

Their analysis of fossilized remains from the Messel deposit near Frankfurt, Germany, provides the most compelling evidence to date that ancient food webs were organized much like modern food webs. Their paper describing the research appears online and open access this week in Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.


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Eli Levine's curator insight, March 20, 2014 6:37 PM

There is, indeed, not much that is new in this world.

 

One would think that humans would learn to live in relative harmony with nature.


However, I do not think that the brain types of those with real political power (everyone from public to private elites), as well as the brain types of the people in the general pool of society are capable of doing this at this time.

 

Therefore, we are going to kill ourselves off in mass droves.

 

And we probably won't learn our lessons, in spite of the damage that we're going to inflict on ourselves.

 

Think about it.

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Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos - Steven Strogatz

Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos - Steven Strogatz | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

This course of 25 lectures, filmed at Cornell University in Spring 2014, is intended for newcomers to nonlinear dynamics and chaos. It closely follows Prof. Strogatz's book, "Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: With Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering." The mathematical treatment is friendly and informal, but still careful. Analytical methods, concrete examples, and geometric intuition are stressed. The theory is developed systematically, starting with first-order differential equations and their bifurcations, followed by phase plane analysis, limit cycles and their bifurcations, and culminating with the Lorenz equations, chaos, iterated maps, period doubling, renormalization, fractals, and strange attractors. A unique feature of the course is its emphasis on applications. These include airplane wing vibrations, biological rhythms, insect outbreaks, chemical oscillators, chaotic waterwheels, and even a technique for using chaos to send secret messages. In each case, the scientific background is explained at an elementary level and closely integrated with the mathematical theory. The theoretical work is enlivened by frequent use of computer graphics, simulations, and videotaped demonstrations of nonlinear phenomena. The essential prerequisite is single-variable calculus, including curve sketching, Taylor series, and separable differential equations. In a few places, multivariable calculus (partial derivatives, Jacobian matrix, divergence theorem) and linear algebra (eigenvalues and eigenvectors) are used. Fourier analysis is not assumed, and is developed where needed. Introductory physics is used throughout. Other scientific prerequisites would depend on the applications considered, but in all cases, a first course should be adequate preparation

 

Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos - Steven Strogatz, Cornell University

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLbN57C5Zdl6j_qJA-pARJnKsmROzPnO9V


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Jean-Michel Livowsky's curator insight, June 2, 2014 3:22 AM

Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos...

Jean-Michel Livowsky's curator insight, June 2, 2014 3:23 AM

Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos

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culturegraphy

culturegraphy | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

Culturegraphy investigates cultural information exchange over time also known as 'meme' spreading. These cultural networks can provide new insights into the rich interconnections of cultural development.


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Simulating Congestion Dynamics of Train Rapid Transit Using Smart Card Data

Investigating congestion in train rapid transit systems (RTS) in today's urban cities is a challenge compounded by limited data availability and difficulties in model validation. Here, we integrate information from travel smart card data, a mathematical model of route choice, and a full-scale agent-based model of the Singapore RTS to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the congestion dynamics than can be obtained through analytical modelling alone. Our model is empirically validated, and allows for close inspection of the dynamics including station crowdedness, average travel duration, and frequency of missed trains—all highly pertinent factors in service quality. Using current data, the crowdedness in all 121 stations appears to be distributed log-normally. In our preliminary scenarios, we investigate the effect of population growth on service quality. We find that the current population (2 million) lies below a critical point; and increasing it beyond a factor of approximately 10% leads to an exponential deterioration in service quality. We also predict that incentivizing commuters to avoid the most congested hours can bring modest improvements to the service quality provided the population remains under the critical point. Finally, our model can be used to generate simulated data for statistical analysis when such data are not empirically available, as is often the case.

 

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2014.05.146

Simulating Congestion Dynamics of Train Rapid Transit Using Smart Card Data
N Othman, EF Legara, V Selvam, and C Monterola

Procedia Computer Science Vol. 29, 2014, Pages 1610–1620


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Effects of Deception in Social Networks

Honesty plays a crucial role in any situation where organisms exchange information or resources. Dishonesty can thus be expected to have damaging effects on social coherence if agents cannot trust the information or goods they receive. However, a distinction is often drawn between prosocial lies ('white' lies) and antisocial lying (i.e. deception for personal gain), with the former being considered much less destructive than the latter. We use an agent-based model to show that antisocial lying causes social networks to become increasingly fragmented. Antisocial dishonesty thus places strong constraints on the size and cohesion of social communities, providing a major hurdle that organisms have to overcome (e.g. by evolving counter-deception strategies) in order to evolve large, socially cohesive communities. In contrast, 'white' lies can prove to be beneficial in smoothing the flow of interactions and facilitating a larger, more integrated network. Our results demonstrate that these group-level effects can arise as emergent properties of interactions at the dyadic level. The balance between prosocial and antisocial lies may set constraints on the structure of social networks, and hence the shape of society as a whole.

 

Effects of Deception in Social Networks
Gerardo Iñiguez, Tzipe Govezensky, Robin Dunbar, Kimmo Kaski, Rafael A. Barrio

http://arxiv.org/abs/1406.1034


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Eli Levine's curator insight, June 9, 2014 2:16 AM

Accuracy is critical for the well being and survival of the individual and the society as a whole.  Honesty is essentially accuracy, although bear in mind, that there are times when information needs to be withheld, due to the fact that the presence of that information can have a negative and sometimes long lasting impact upon that individual and, potentially, upon the whole of the societal unit as a whole.

 

This kind of relates back to quantum physics, in my mind, since what we observe and how we observe it ends up leading to what happens in our universe, for better and for worse as well.  Information, its content and delivery, effects us in ways that we usually don't fathom.  But the general rule of thumb, that accurate information leads to healthier results for the system (be it an individual, an organization or a society) while inaccurate information leads to less than healthy results, no matter what the justification or reasoning behind it was in the first place.

 

Enjoy!

 

Think about it.

HRMG444 Group's curator insight, December 2, 2015 7:42 PM

It is very easy to create a perception of yourself as someone that you aren't on Social media.  The more you get involved in this fantasy character the more you start to believe your own deception.  Then once you are faced with the reality, there is potential for psychological damage effects.

 

http://arxiv.org/abs/1406.0673

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Emergence of criticality in living systems through adaptation and evolution: Practice Makes Critical

Empirical evidence has proliferated that living systems might operate at the vicinity of critical points with examples ranging from spontaneous brain activity to flock dynamics. Such systems need to cope with and respond to a complex ever-changing environment through the construction of useful internal maps of the world. Here we employ tools from statistical mechanics and information theory to prove that systems poised at criticality are much more efficient in ensuring that their internal maps are good proxies of reality. Analytical and computational evolutionary models vividly illustrate that a community of such systems dynamically self-tunes toward a critical state either as the complexity of the environment increases or even upon attempting to map with fidelity the other agents in the community. Our approach constitutes a general explanation for the emergence of critical-like behavior in complex adaptive systems.


Emergence of criticality in living systems through adaptation and evolution: Practice Makes Critical
Jorge Hidalgo, Jacopo Grilli, Samir Suweis, Miguel A. Munoz, Jayanth R. Banavar, Amos Maritan

http://arxiv.org/abs/1307.4325



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