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The Bounds of Reason: Game Theory and the Unification of the Behavioral Sciences (by Herbert Gintis)

The Bounds of Reason: Game Theory and the Unification of the Behavioral Sciences

~ Herbert Gintis (author) More about this product
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Game theory is central to understanding human behavior and relevant to all of the behavioral sciences--from biology and economics, to anthropology and political science. However, as The Bounds of Reason demonstrates, game theory alone cannot fully explain human behavior and should instead complement other key concepts championed by the behavioral disciplines. Herbert Gintis shows that just as game theory without broader social theory is merely technical bravado, so social theory without game theory is a handicapped enterprise. This edition has been thoroughly revised and updated.

Reinvigorating game theory, The Bounds of Reason offers innovative thinking for the behavioral sciences.

 

 


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Rogers 14'01'' - YouTube

14 Minutes from X-Center Network April 23-25, 2014 Annual Conference Vienna Austria _Speaker Roger Jones_Topic Population explosion
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The future lies in uncertainty

 

Statisticians have celebrated a lot recently. 2013 marked the 300th anniversary of Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi, which used probability theory to explore the properties of statistics as more observations were taken. It was also the 250th anniversary of Thomas Bayes' essay on how humans can sequentially learn from experience, steadily updating their beliefs as more data become available (1). And it was the International Year of Statistics (2). Now that the bunting has been taken down, it is a good time to take stock of recent developments in statistical science and examine its role in the age of Big Data.
Much enthusiasm for statistics hangs on the ever-increasing availability of large data sets, particularly when something has to be ranked or classified. These situations arise, for example, when deciding which book to recommend, working out where your arm is when practicing golf swings in front of a games console, or (if you're a security agency) deciding whose private e-mail to read first. Purely data-based approaches, under the title of machine-learning, have been highly successful in speech recognition, real-time interpretation of moving images, and online translation.

 

The future lies in uncertainty
. D. J. Spiegelhalter

Science 18 July 2014:
Vol. 345 no. 6194 pp. 264-265
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1251122


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Complexity Digest's curator insight, July 18, 6:25 PM

“Predicting the past is very easy. Predicting the future is not so easy” -Ignacio Méndez

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Coaction versus reciprocity in continuous-time models of cooperation

Cooperating animals frequently show closely coordinated behaviours organized by a continuous flow of information between interacting partners. Such real-time coaction is not captured by the iterated prisoner׳s dilemma and other discrete-time reciprocal cooperation games, which inherently feature a delay in information exchange. Here, we study the evolution of cooperation when individuals can dynamically respond to each other׳s actions.


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Friendship and natural selection

More than any other species, humans form social ties to individuals who are neither kin nor mates, and these ties tend to be with similar people. Here, we show that this similarity extends to genotypes. Across the whole genome, friends’ genotypes at the single nucleotide polymorphism level tend to be positively correlated (homophilic). In fact, the increase in similarity relative to strangers is at the level of fourth cousins. However, certain genotypes are also negatively correlated (heterophilic) in friends. And the degree of correlation in genotypes can be used to create a “friendship score” that predicts the existence of friendship ties in a hold-out sample. A focused gene-set analysis indicates that some of the overall correlation in genotypes can be explained by specific systems; for example, an olfactory gene set is homophilic and an immune system gene set is heterophilic, suggesting that these systems may play a role in the formation or maintenance of friendship ties. Friends may be a kind of “functional kin.” Finally, homophilic genotypes exhibit significantly higher measures of positive selection, suggesting that, on average, they may yield a synergistic fitness advantage that has been helping to drive recent human evolution.

 

Friendship and natural selection
Nicholas A. Christakis and James H. Fowler

PNAS

http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1400825111

 


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The Internet Of Things Will Need Millions Of Developers By 2020

The Internet Of Things Will Need Millions Of Developers By 2020 | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
As big as Internet of Things could be, the only real way to measure its value is by developer counts, not sensor counts.

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50 Sensor applications for a Smarter World. Get Inspired!

50 Sensor applications for a Smarter World. Get Inspired! | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
More than 50 billion devices will be connected to the Internet by 2020, but this new connectivity revolution has already started. Libelium publishes a compilation of 50 cutting edge Internet of Things applications grouped by vertical markets.

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Nat Sones's curator insight, March 4, 2013 12:41 PM

Internet of things, world of connection. The cities of today and tomorrow will be as driven by devices as individual people are now. 

Paco Prieto's curator insight, April 5, 2013 9:15 AM

Muy interesante. !! Fantásticas aplicaciones en el mundo del agua !! @juanpaespi

roberto gilli's curator insight, September 25, 2013 4:41 AM

Great list of applications of sensors grids.

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▶ Dirk Helbing on complexity in economic theory

This interview with Dirk Helbing on the Future of the economy is part of the Futurium Talking Futures interview series. More information is available here: https://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/interviews ;


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Eli Levine's curator insight, February 28, 12:12 AM

Indeed, it is when we shut the door and turn our backs on those and that which do us harm, that we'll actually realize some real benefits amongst this species.


Think about it.

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▶ Jeffrey Johnson: From networks to hypernetworks in complex systems science

Complex systems have multilevel dynamics emerging from interactions between their parts. Networks have provided deep insights into those dynamics, but only represent relations between two things while the generality is relations between many things. Hypergraphs and their related Galois connections have long been used to model such relations, but their set theoretic nature has inadequate and inappropriate structure. Simplicial complexes can better represent relations between many things but they too have limitations. Hypersimplices, which are defined as simplices in which the relational structure is explicit, overcome these limitations. Hypernetworks, which in the simplest cases are sets of hypersimplices, have a multidimensional connectivity structure which constrains those dynamics represented by patterns of numbers over the hypersimplices and their vertices. The dynamics of hypernetwork also involve the formation and disintegration of hypersimplices, which are seen as structural events related to system time. Hypernetworks provide algebraic structure able to represent multilevel systems and combine their top-down and bottom-up micro, meso and macro-dynamics. Hypernetworks naturally generalise graphs, hypergraphs and networks. These ideas will be presented in a graphical way through examples which also show the relevance of hypernetworks to policy. It will be argued that hypernetworks are necessary if not sufficient for a science of complex systems and its applications. The talk will be aimed at a general audience and no prior knowledge will be assumed.

 

10th ECCO / GBI seminar series. Spring 2014

From networks to hypernetworks in complex systems science

April 18, 2014, Brussels

Jeffrey Johnson Open University, UK

Slides, references and more: http://ecco.vub.ac.be/?q=node/231 


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Liz Rykert's curator insight, May 10, 9:32 PM

I am fascinated with the role of networks in complex systems as the scaffolds that connect and conduct.  

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▶ Seth Lloyd: Quantum Machine Learning

Machine learning algorithms find patterns in big data sets. This talk presents quantum machine learning algorithms that give exponential speed-ups over their best existing classical counterparts. The algorithms work by mapping the data set into a quantum state (big quantum data) that contains the data in quantum superposition. Quantum coherence is then used to reveal patterns in the data. The quantum algorithms scale as the logarithm of the size of the database.

 

Seth Lloyd visited the Quantum AI Lab at Google LA to give a tech talk on "Quantum Machine Learning." This talk took place on January 29, 2014.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkBPp9UovVU


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How languages evolve - Alex Gendler

How languages evolve - Alex Gendler | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
Over the course of human history, thousands of languages have developed from what was once a much smaller number. How did we end up with so many? And how do we keep track of them all? Alex Gendler explains how linguists group languages into language families, demonstrating how these linguistic trees give us crucial insights into the past.

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▶ Dirk Helbing: How to Create a Better World - YouTube

It probably started with Linux, then came Wikipedia and Open Street Map. Crowd-sourced information systems are central for the Digital Society to thrive. So, what's next? I will introduce a number of concepts such as the Planetary Nervous System, Global Participatory Platform, Interactive Virtual Worlds, User-Controlled Information Filters and Reputation Systems, and the Digital Data Purse. I will also introduce ideas such as the Social Mirror, Intercultural Adapter, the Social Protector and Social Money as tools to create a better world. These can help us to avoid systemic instabilities, market failures, tragedies of the commons, and exploitation, and to create the framework for a Participatory Market Society, where everyone can be better off.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_Lphxknozc


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▶ Crystal Ball, Magic Wand, or Invisible Hand?

Crystal Ball, Magic Wand, or Invisible Hand?
How to Master our Future in Times of Digital Revolution.

Dirk Helbing

Opening keynote address delivered at CESUN 2014, Hoboken (New York City), on June 9.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYjX7qlq-AY


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What humans can learn from semi-intelligent slime

What humans can learn from semi-intelligent slime | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

Inspired by biological design and self-organizing systems, artist Heather Barnett co-creates with physarum polycephalum, a eukaryotic microorganism that lives in cool, moist areas. What can people learn from the semi-intelligent slime mold? Watch this talk to find out.

 

http://on.ted.com/sz7m


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X Center Network – Mathematical Model for the Dynamic Behavior of the Demographic Transition by Roger D. Jones

X Center Network – Mathematical Model for the Dynamic Behavior of the Demographic Transition by Roger D. Jones | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
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Early Warning Signs in Social-Ecological Networks

Early Warning Signs in Social-Ecological Networks | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

A number of social-ecological systems exhibit complex behavior associated with nonlinearities, bifurcations, and interaction with stochastic drivers. These systems are often prone to abrupt and unexpected instabilities and state shifts that emerge as a discontinuous response to gradual changes in environmental drivers. Predicting such behaviors is crucial to the prevention of or preparation for unwanted regime shifts. Recent research in ecology has investigated early warning signs that anticipate the divergence of univariate ecosystem dynamics from a stable attractor. To date, leading indicators of instability in systems with multiple interacting components have remained poorly investigated. This is a major limitation in the understanding of the dynamics of complex social-ecological networks. Here, we develop a theoretical framework to demonstrate that rising variance—measured, for example, by the maximum element of the covariance matrix of the network—is an effective leading indicator of network instability. We show that its reliability and robustness depend more on the sign of the interactions within the network than the network structure or noise intensity. Mutualistic, scale free and small world networks are less stable than their antagonistic or random counterparts but their instability is more reliably predicted by this leading indicator. These results provide new advances in multidimensional early warning analysis and offer a framework to evaluate the resilience of social-ecological networks.


Early Warning Signs in Social-Ecological Networks.

PLoS ONE 9(7): e101851. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0101851 (2014)

Suweis Samir, D'Odorico Paolo


Code of the analysis available at https://github.com/suweis


http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0101851


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How collective comparisons emerge without individual comparisons of the options

Collective decisions in animal groups emerge from the actions of individuals who are unlikely to have global information. Comparative assessment of options can be valuable in decision-making. Ant colonies are excellent collective decision-makers, for example when selecting a new nest-site.


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Why parks and green spaces are important for smart cities? | Place I Live

Why parks and green spaces are important for smart cities? | Place I Live | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

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judycurtis's curator insight, June 26, 12:50 PM

Smart cities have to do with quality of life.

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5 reasons the Maker Movement will drive the Internet of Things

5 reasons the Maker Movement will drive the Internet of Things | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

[June 2014]: Making things is cool again! James Mack, KORE Marketing & Channel Development Manager lays the case for why hobbyists and makers are the ones who will move the IoT forward.


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judycurtis's curator insight, July 10, 5:33 PM

Creativity, rapid prototyping, working around limitations, reducing complexity, and community development are the factors cited by James Mack of KORE that show that it is the makers who'll be the greatest contributors to the IoT era.

Ulrich Rousseau's curator insight, July 11, 9:11 AM

et au moins autant de raison de donner aux makers les outils pour développer l'internet des objets

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Susan Llewelyn Leach - Smart Avenue, Barcelona | Future Cities

Susan Llewelyn Leach - Smart Avenue, Barcelona | Future Cities | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it
Paseo de Gracia, Barcelona's elegant shopping boulevard, is being transformed into the city's smartest.

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judycurtis's curator insight, July 18, 9:47 AM

Josep Ramon Ferrer, Barcelona's Smart City director, sees these innovations as part of an inevitable progression. Just as the public couldn't imagine being in an urban environment where there is no water, electricity, or sewers, he says, in the future, it will be inconceivable not to have smart technology.

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▶ Chaos, Complexity, and Public Policy

Irene Sanders Executive Director and Founder of the Washington Center for Complexity and Public Policy and author of "Strategic Thinking and the New Science: Planning in the Midst of Chaos, Complexity, and Change."

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXxs-JtvkkQ


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Eli Levine's curator insight, February 11, 2:09 PM

A way cool panel discussion.  I wish I could be a full practitioner of this new, empirically based governing and political strategic thinking.

Liz Rykert's curator insight, February 12, 10:34 AM

Loving these new video resources for understanding complexity and it applications.

Luciano Lampi's curator insight, March 23, 9:16 PM

are our politicians aware of these concepts?

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What ants teach us about the brain, cancer and the Internet

What ants teach us about the brain, cancer and the Internet | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

Ecologist Deborah Gordon studies ants wherever she can find them -- in the desert, in the tropics, in her kitchen ... In this fascinating talk, she explains her obsession with insects most of us would happily swat away without a second thought. She argues that ant life provides a useful model for learning about many other topics, including disease, technology and the human brain.

 

http://on.ted.com/h0Emb ;


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Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos - Steven Strogatz, Cornell University - YouTube

Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos - Steven Strogatz, Cornell University - YouTube | Complex Systems and X-Events | Scoop.it

This course of 25 lectures, filmed at Cornell University in Spring 2014, is intended for newcomers to nonlinear dynamics and chaos. It closely follows Prof. Strogatz's book, "Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: With Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering." The mathematical treatment is friendly and informal, but still careful. Analytical methods, concrete examples, and geometric intuition are stressed. The theory is developed systematically, starting with first-order differential equations and their bifurcations, followed by phase plane analysis, limit cycles and their bifurcations, and culminating with the Lorenz equations, chaos, iterated maps, period doubling, renormalization, fractals, and strange attractors. A unique feature of the course is its emphasis on applications. These include airplane wing vibrations, biological rhythms, insect outbreaks, chemical oscillators, chaotic waterwheels, and even a technique for using chaos to send secret messages. In each case, the scientific background is explained at an elementary level and closely integrated with the mathematical theory. The theoretical work is enlivened by frequent use of computer graphics, simulations, and videotaped demonstrations of nonlinear phenomena. The essential prerequisite is single-variable calculus, including curve sketching, Taylor series, and separable differential equations. In a few places, multivariable calculus (partial derivatives, Jacobian matrix, divergence theorem) and linear algebra (eigenvalues and eigenvectors) are used. Fourier analysis is not assumed, and is developed where needed. Introductory physics is used throughout. Other scientific prerequisites would depend on the applications considered, but in all cases, a first course should be adequate preparation

 

Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos - Steven Strogatz, Cornell University

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLbN57C5Zdl6j_qJA-pARJnKsmROzPnO9V


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Jean-Michel Livowsky's curator insight, June 2, 3:22 AM

Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos...

Jean-Michel Livowsky's curator insight, June 2, 3:23 AM

Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos

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▶ Towards a Self-Regulating Society

Towards a Self-Regulating Society. Dirk Helbing, ETH Zurich. 2014/05/20

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Anne Landreat's curator insight, June 17, 7:12 AM

Vers une société auto-régulée. En Anglais.

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The Fascinating World of Complex Systems

Part 1:             http://www.multimedia.ethz.ch/campus/zurichmeetsny/?doi=10.3930/ETHZ/AV-80b92958-97b0-4ad7-b07f-b15192931efc&autostart=false
 
Part 2:             http://www.multimedia.ethz.ch/campus/zurichmeetsny/?doi=10.3930/ETHZ/AV-1db36e67-b2d7-4229-8973-ef1bb54dde27&autostart=false
  
http://www.complexsys.org/publicprograms.html


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june holley's curator insight, July 9, 8:40 AM

Videos on complex systems.

Tom Cockburn's curator insight, July 17, 4:07 AM

Interesting

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▶ Global Brain: Web as Self-organizing Distributed Intelligence - Francis Heylighen

Distributed intelligence is an ability to solve problems and process information that is not localized inside a single person or computer, but that emerges from the coordinated interactions between a large number of people and their technological extensions. The Internet and in particular the World-Wide Web form a nearly ideal substrate for the emergence of a distributed intelligence that spans the planet, integrating the knowledge, skills and intuitions of billions of people supported by billions of information-processing devices. This intelligence becomes increasingly powerful through a process of self-organization in which people and devices selectively reinforce useful links, while rejecting useless ones. This process can be modeled mathematically and computationally by representing individuals and devices as agents, connected by a weighted directed network along which "challenges" propagate. Challenges represent problems, opportunities or questions that must be processed by the agents to extract benefits and avoid penalties. Link weights are increased whenever agents extract benefit from the challenges propagated along it. My research group is developing such a large-scale simulation environment in order to better understand how the web may boost our collective intelligence. The anticipated outcome of that process is a "global brain", i.e. a nervous system for the planet that would be able to tackle both global and personal problems.

 

Summer School in cognitive Science: Web Science and the Mind Institut des sciences cognitives, UQAM, Montréal, Canada http://www.summer14.isc.uqam.ca/

http://www.isc.uqam.ca/ ;

FRANCIS HEYLIGHEN, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, ECCO - Evolution, Complexity and Cognition research group

Towards a Global Brain: the Web as a Self-organizing, Distributed Intelligence

http://youtu.be/w2sznrVtiLg


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Tom Cockburn's curator insight, July 17, 4:06 AM

Apart from outraging some religious groups and upsetting some neo- luddites,this sounds interesting,provided we have some checks and balances/ failsafe options too