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Graphs of the day (2). Mediterranean current accounts, 2012 third quarter

Graphs of the day (2). Mediterranean current accounts, 2012 third quarter | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it
Today, Eurostat published new data on current accounts, third quarter of 2012. For the first time since the introduction of the Euro the combined current account of Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal as well as the current accounts of the individual countries showed surpluses (caveat: not seasonally adjusted!). Good news? Yes and no.
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Restoring Fiscal Policy in the Monetary Union » TripleCrisis

What is to be done to solve the European debt problem? In our view, fiscal policy enhancing growth and central bank interventions to reduce the interest rates on sovereign securities are necessary. To enact them, a satisfactory answer must be given to the moral hazard problem regarding the behaviour of national authorities: if the Euro governments help out national governments that are in budget difficulties, what is to prevent these nations from engaging in irresponsible budget policies in the future?

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True Economics: 23/1/2013: IMF WEO Update: Euro Area snapshot

True Economics: 23/1/2013: IMF WEO Update: Euro Area snapshot | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

The chart clearly shows that the euro area remains the weak point for global growth and that this picture is likely to continue in 2013 and 2014. More importantly, the revisions since October 2012 show that the IMF pessimism about the euro area growth prospects is getting deeper, compared to other economies.

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The Catalonian issue proceeds

The Catalonian issue proceeds | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it
The non-binding and largely symbolic resolution – which states that the people of Catalonia have a democratic right to decide on their sovereignty – was passed with 85 votes for, 41 against and two abstentions in the 135-seat legislature.
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EconoSpeak: Why Britain Needs the EU Less than the Rest of Europe

This is the subject of a stimulating piece in The Current Moment.  The short version, embellished with my cynical spin, goes like this: more or less all of Europe inherited a mixed economy social contract from the ruins of WWII.  This remains generally popular among the public.  Nevertheless, elites want to unwind it..

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Ibex Salad: Correcting our last post (question remains)

Ibex Salad: Correcting our last post (question remains) | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

Correction of the chart in the last post - this time using the proper figures properly. Still the same question. Why is the Spanish construction industry using twice as much labour to produce one home as it did prior to 2009?

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How can Europe overcome the crisis – by Robert Misik

How can Europe overcome the crisis – by Robert Misik | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it
“The euro zone slips into the  Merkel-recession”, writes Robert Misik in the German Trades Union Federation’s magazine AGAINST APERTURE. But, he adds, there are realistic alternatives. Some economists have developed ambitious plans. The DGB a Marshall Plan for Europe is one such.  Clickhere to go to Misic’s webpage or read on…


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European demos not impressed by Cameron - Grahnlaw

European demos not impressed by Cameron - Grahnlaw | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

More from the European demos unimpressed by the speech from UK prime minister David Cameron on less or no European Union for his country a few years hence.

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mainly macro: When National Interest and Party Advantage Conflict

mainly macro: When National Interest and Party Advantage Conflict | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

Ministers are meant to represent their portfolio - and most of the time the complaint is that they do this too much, with too little regard to wider interests. Again the cynic might say that is natural enough, because their own personal political capital is bound up with the perceived success of that ministry. So a Chancellor who was totally focused on being a Chancellor, in a situation where the economy was doing badly, would be banging the table against anything that put a recovery at risk. Now perhaps George Osborne...

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Magpie's Asymmetric Warfare: Spain, Catalunya, UK and Taxes.

The Parlament (nope, that's not a typo, that's how it's spelt in Catalonian) approved, 85 votes against 41, a declaration that the Catalonian people have the right to decide its own sovereignty. The Catalonian left, the Esquerra, voted in favour of it; the local PP (centre-right) and PSC (PSOE local branch) opposed. (See here, Spanish)

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Cameron’s EU Policy Uncertainty

Cameron’s EU Policy Uncertainty | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

I believe that small is beautiful, and that the European Union system is big and fragile. I am all for free trade, freedom of movement and immigration. But as for regulatory, monetary and fiscal integration — which is the direction that Europe has taken, especially since the self-inflicted Euro crisis that grew out the fundamentally flawed Euro system — how can Europe be responsive to its citizens when they are so numerous, so diverse and so geographically and linguistically dispersed? How can it be viable to have the same regulatory and political framework for Poland, Spain, Austria, Britain, Denmark and Greece?

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Is There a Big Inflation Mystery in Greece? - Tim Duy's Fed Watch

Is There a Big Inflation Mystery in Greece? - Tim Duy's Fed Watch | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it
Tyler Cowen confuses me: The rates of price inflation in Greece have been running in the range of 0.8% to 2%...It’s funny how many people pretend to understand what is going on here.
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EURUSD Is Vulnerable Ahead Of 'LTRO Friday' | Zero Hedge

EURUSD Is Vulnerable Ahead Of 'LTRO Friday' | Zero Hedge | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it
ECB will release data on the early LTRO loans repayment tomorrow. The release will help gauge the liquidity needs of the European banking sector. Consensus expectations seem to be around EUR100bn.
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Cameron’s gamble — Crooked Timber

Cameron hasn’t said much about the changed terms he wants from the EU, but it is safe to say that he wants more market and less political and social integration and horrible stuff such more “flexible” labour markets (aka worse terms for workers). If anything, the uncertainty around the referendum will have a dampening effect on an economy that is already under water, making it easier for Labour to the extent to which low growth and jobs remain the real issues in the election

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Prakash Loungani: House Prices in Denmark

Prakash Loungani: House Prices in Denmark | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

The housing market remains vulnerable. Mortgage loans with variable rates and deferred amortization loans (interest-only for 10 years) account for 74 and 56 percent of the mortgages respectively. Given the high debt levels of Danish households, this creates a threat of higher delinquencies should rates rise or incomes fall.

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Marc to Market: Ten Things You Should Know about the LTRO

Marc to Market: Ten Things You Should Know about the LTRO | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

1. Banks that borrowed from the ECB under the Long Term Repo Operation (LTRO) can begin repaying, if they want. Banks must notify the ECB on a weekly basis about how much they want to repay. The ECB will publish amount to be paid back and the number of banks every Friday for the next few years, starting tomorrow.

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Bruegel - The Brussels-based think tank | blog

Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, Asia-Europe Economic Forum conference on European troubles, Asian worries, Brussels, 21 January 2013:  

Ladies and Gentlemen, dear friends, It is a great pleasure to speak to you tonight. I would like to express my appreciation to the Asia-Europe Economic Forum for its collective thinking on our common economic challenges.  The economic policy debate over recent years has been...

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Nominal GDP targeting for the UK, coming sometime, maybe? | Bond Vigilantes

Nominal GDP targeting for the UK, coming sometime, maybe? | Bond Vigilantes | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

This speech by Mark Carney, incoming Bank of England Governor, to the CFA Institute in Toronto, is potentially very important for UK monetary policy. He appears to suggest that targeting a level of Nominal GDP (NGDP) can be more powerful than an inflation target. Importantly he also emphasises the “history dependence” of such a policy regime, and that “bygones are not bygones”.

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Coppola Comment: The End of Britain?

Coppola Comment: The End of Britain? | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

There is a very scary bulletin from the investors' magazine MoneyWeek doing the rounds. It is entitled "The End of Britain", and forecasts an imminent disastrous financial collapse.

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The UK Unemployment Mystery - Economics Blog

The UK Unemployment Mystery - Economics Blog | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

In the 2007-13 recession, we have seen UK unemployment rise at a slower rate than previous recessions, and it has also been quicker to fall – even though evidence points to a unique triple dip recession. Why has unemployment been falling, when the economy is so weak?

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Testosterone Pit - Home - A Year After Declaring War On The Banks

Testosterone Pit - Home - A Year After Declaring War On The Banks | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

On January 22, 2012, French presidential candidate François Hollande shook up the banks: “It has no name, no face, no party, it will never be candidate, it will therefore never be elected, yet it governs: that enemy is the world of finance,” he said. It “freed itself from all rules” and “took control of the economy, of society, and even our lives.” He’d fight it, he said, and promised some tough reforms.

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Trust Your Instincts: BoE's Robert Jenkins: Stable banks need a stable financial system

In a Financial News column, Bank of England Financial Policy Committee member Robert Jenkins makes the argument that since the beginning of the financial crisis senior bankers have had a 'refresher course in basic banking' and are finally stumbling upon the simple fact that a new risk has emerged:  contagion.

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EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » Europe’s Debt Crisis Endgames—Stealth Solutions

EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » Europe’s Debt Crisis Endgames—Stealth Solutions | European Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

In his novella Chronicle of a Death Foretold (Crónica de Una Muerte Anunciada in the original Spanish), Gabriel Garcia Marquez commences at the end of the story gradually revealing the events leading up to a murder. The non-linear telling creates an unusual tension. With the conclusion known, only the precise steps leading to the tragedy remain unclear.

The probable endgame of Europe’s debt crisis is already known – de facto mutualisation of European debt and greater integration. But the precise events leading up to it are unknown. The story is being told backward.

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