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Model risk: Risk measures when models may be wrong

Risk forecasting is central to financial regulations, risk management, and macroprudential policy. This column raises concerns about the reliance on risk forecasting, since risk forecast models have high levels of model risk – especially when the models are needed the most, during crises. Policymakers should be wary of relying solely on such models. Formal model-risk analysis should be a part of the regulatory design process.

ESRC's insight:

Article is co-written by Jon DanielssonDirector of the ESRC funded Systemic Risk Centre, London School of Economics

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Cost of no Brexit deal will be “widespread, damaging and pervasive” 

Cost of no Brexit deal will be “widespread, damaging and pervasive”  | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

Professor Anand Menon, Director of the UK in a Changing Europe on Radio 4's Today programme (20.7.17 from 1:15)

ESRC's insight:

Professor Anand Menon, Director of the ESRC-funded UK in a Changing Europe initiative discusses their recently published Cost of no deal report. The report indicates that the consequences of the UK failing to reach a deal with the EU will be “widespread, damaging and pervasive”.

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The relationship between zero hour contracts and poor mental health

The relationship between zero hour contracts and poor mental health | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

Bekka Chaplin investigates the relationship between being on a zero hour contract and poor mental health following research from the UCL Institute of Education.

ESRC's insight:

The Centre for Longitudinal Studies is funded by the ESRC.

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This noise can alter how you perceive your fingers - Futurity

This noise can alter how you perceive your fingers - Futurity | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it
You know that rising-pitch sound cartoons use when something's stretching? Experiments reveal its strange effect on our perception.
ESRC's insight:

Funding for this research came from the the Economic and Social Research Council and the Arts and Humanities Research Council.

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Reality Check: Are we living happily ever after? - BBC News

Reality Check: Are we living happily ever after? - BBC News | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

Divorce rates have fallen but does that mean relationships are becoming more stable? Reality Check asks whether we are becoming a nation of couples living happily ever after. 

ESRC's insight:

This article cites data from ESRC funded research from: the Millennium Cohort Study, Institute for Fiscal Studies and Understanding Society. 

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Sing when you're women: why it's time to take female sports fans seriously

Sing when you're women: why it's time to take female sports fans seriously | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it
The struggles of being a female sports fan.
ESRC's insight:

Stacey Pope is Associate Professor in the School of Applied Social Sciences at Durham University, and received ESRC funding. 

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Market competition and mass participation ‘reduces diversity’

Market competition and mass participation ‘reduces diversity’ | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

Expanding university enrolment across the world has resulted in universities ‘imitating each other’, says leading scholar.

ESRC's insight:

The Centre for Global Higher Education receives ESRC funding

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Jisc Futures: data sharing is a key part of research – and not just for 'parasites'

Jisc Futures: data sharing is a key part of research – and not just for 'parasites' | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it
Does the UK have the best structures in place to fund data-driven research? asks Steven Hill
ESRC's insight:

Article cites ESRC's Secondary Data Analysis Initiative, 

which aims to deliver high-quality research through better use of major data resources created by the ESRC and other agencies.

 

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Cambium's curator insight, July 11, 5:02 PM

Data sharing is  key to drive translation of exploratory research into smarter innovative applications that can have significant impact - Learn more about a tried and tested process to do this

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Find out if you live in one of London's best areas for fast internet

Find out if you live in one of London's best areas for fast internet | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

Homes near Google’s £1 billion London headquarters enjoy Britain’s fastest internet while swathes of the capital suffer some of the worst speeds in the country, a new interactive map has revealed.

ESRC's insight:

The Consumer Data Research Centre (CDRC) is funded by ESRC

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Why a kiss is never just a kiss

Why a kiss is never just a kiss | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

A Relate study recently reveals one in five men do not believe kissing is cheating.

ESRC's insight:

Article cites Professor Robin Dunbar who received ESRC funding for his research.

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UK research chief 'will not direct science' - BBC News

UK research chief 'will not direct science' - BBC News | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it
The new head of UK research has said that he won't centrally direct scientific research.
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Prof Sir Mark Walport will be responsible for all public research spending in Britain next year. Currently, UK research is funded by nine separate organisations, including ESRC. 

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HPRU awarded two grants from the Economic and Social Research Council

HPRU awarded two grants from the Economic and Social Research Council | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

The projects were funded under theme 4 of the cross-Research Council initiative on AMR: ‘Behaviour within and beyond the healthcare setting’.

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The NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infection (HCAI) and Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) has been awarded two grants from ESRC.

 

 
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Health benefits of moderate drinking may be overstated, study finds

The benefits of light alcohol consumption, as well as the risks associated with not drinking at all, might not be as great as previously thought, according to Penn State researchers who examined the drinking habits of middle-aged adults.

ESRC's insight:

The research was based on the ESRC-funded National Child Development Study at the Centre for Longitudinal Studies

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Centre for Economic Performance report on UK pay and living standards

Higher price inflation as a result of sterling’s depreciation following the vote to leave the EU, coupled with nominal wage growth stuck at a norm of 2% a year, means that once again the UK faces falling real wages, threatening family living standards.

ESRC's insight:

The article highlights findings from the ESRC-funded Centre for Economic Performance

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New 'wellbeing indicators' to help councils understand their residents published

New 'wellbeing indicators' to help councils understand their residents published | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

Councils will now be able to tailor their services to residents' needs by drawing on a wide-ranging set of data concerning 'wellbeing'.

ESRC's insight:

The What Works Centre for Wellbeing receives funding from the ESRC.

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Large gap between incomes across country, inequality and poverty study finds

Large gap between incomes across country, inequality and poverty study finds | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

The average household income in the South East is almost 25% higher than in the West Midlands.

ESRC's insight:

This article refers to  a report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, who receive funding from the ESRC.

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UK Data Service's curator insight, July 20, 5:38 AM
This article covers research which uses data held by the UK Data Service.

Report: Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: 2017 https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/9539

Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 1997-2016: Secure Access

Family Expenditure Survey

Family Resources Survey

Households Below Average Income

Labour Force Survey

Understanding Society
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Big majority of Labour members 'want UK to stay in single market'

Big majority of Labour members 'want UK to stay in single market' | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it
Research could put pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to adjust Brexit stance, given his desire to give power to party grassroots
ESRC's insight:

Article cites  research undertaken as part of the Party Members Project funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. 

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Best Age to Start a Family, Series 10, Bringing Up Britain - BBC Radio 4

Best Age to Start a Family, Series 10, Bringing Up Britain - BBC Radio 4 | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

Best Age to Start a Family

Fertility experts say don't delay but 50 % of UK babies are born to women over 30. The number of men having babies over 50 has risen by two thirds in last 16 years alone. Mariella Frostrup is joined by experts to discuss whether biology is at odds with the pressures of modern life.

ESRC's insight:

Guest panelist Professor Melinda Mills is an ESRC Council member and panelist Professor Heather Joshi works for the Centre for Longitudinal Studies, an ESRC funded research centre.

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Teachers ‘70% more likely’ to leave schools in poorer areas | Schools Week

Teachers ‘70% more likely’ to leave schools in poorer areas | Schools Week | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

"Teachers at the most deprived secondary schools are 70 per cent more likely to leave their jobs than those working in the most affluent areas, leaving their pupils struggling as a result of the constant stream of inexperienced staff, a new report has found."

ESRC's insight:

The Commission on Inequality in Education used findings from the 1970 British Cohort Study and the Millennium Cohort Study; both are carried out by the ESRC funded Centre for Longitudinal Studies. 

 

 

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MBE for Beth Thompson in Queen's Birthday Honours | Wellcome

MBE for Beth Thompson in Queen's Birthday Honours | Wellcome | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it
Beth Thompson, Wellcome's Head of Policy (UK and EU), has been awarded an MBE for her work on the EU Data Protection Regulation.
ESRC's insight:

Beth has led a consortium of funders including the ESRC and other organisations to ensure that the law supports research.

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Mapped: London's best and worst broadband (City workers, look away now)

Mapped: London's best and worst broadband (City workers, look away now) | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

If you're a finance worker with broadband problems, a new map may provide the reason behind it: the City of London has among the worst broadband speeds

ESRC's insight:

The Consumer Data Research Centre (CDRC) is funded by ESRC

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Cigarette packaging deterrents: BBC Points West 05/07/2017

Cigarette packaging deterrents: BBC Points West 05/07/2017 | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

Interview with Dr Olivia Maynard

Clip starts at 06:30 and concludes at 09:15

ESRC's insight:

Dr Olivia Maynard, of the University of Bristol, was a finalist for Outstanding Early Career Impact at the ESRC Celebrating Impact Prize 2014. 

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Young adults on zero-hour contracts suffer worse physical and mental health, study finds

Young adults on zero-hour contracts suffer worse physical and mental health, study finds | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

Young adults on zero-hour contracts suffer worse physical and mental health, study finds latest on ITV News. All the Health news

ESRC's insight:

Article cites findings from the ESRC-funded Centre for Longitudinal Studies

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UK Data Service's curator insight, July 12, 4:03 AM
This article covers research which uses data held by the UK Data Service.

Report: Economic activity and health – Initial findings from the Next Steps Age 25 Sweep

Next Steps (formerly the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE1))
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Academic takes on huge project to compile complete oral history of Gibraltar - Gibraltar News Olive Press

Academic takes on huge project to compile complete oral history of Gibraltar - Gibraltar News Olive Press | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

A GIBRALTARIAN academic is compiling a complete oral history of the Rock. Dr Andrew Canessa, a professor at the University of Essex, will release the first book in the series in January 2018. It uses around 400 interviews to explore how Gibraltar has evolved since the 20th century and aims to examine the ‘range and

ESRC's insight:

Dr Canessa received an ESRC grant for his research ‘Bordering on Britishness: an Oral History of Gibraltar in the 20th Century’, with the backing of The Gibraltar Government.

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Report shows opposition to ‘Hard Brexit’

Report shows opposition to ‘Hard Brexit’ | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

Study indicates popular preference for 'Norway model', but highlights 'significant misunderstanding' in Brexit debate

ESRC's insight:

The report was co-authored by Prof Catherine Barnard from the ESRC-funded UK in a Changing Europe initiative

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Don’t judge poverty by income – or a page on Facebook

Don’t judge poverty by income – or a page on Facebook | ESRC press coverage | Scoop.it

A warm winter coat. A damp-free home. Fresh fruit and veg. A week’s holiday every year. Are these the bare necessities of life in the UK?

ESRC's insight:

The article refers to a study which used findings from the ESRC-funded Understanding Society survey

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UK Data Service's curator insight, July 12, 3:35 AM
This article covers research which uses data held by the UK Data Service.

Households Below Average Income

Understanding Society