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Predicting the Impact of Renewable Energy

Predicting the Impact of Renewable Energy | Sustainable Energy | Scoop.it

I couldn’t make this year’s Renewable Energy Finance Forum – Wall Street, though I did peruse the notes that my colleague Tom Konrad of AltEnergyStocks forwarded to me.  Among the many details, I noticed this rather broad statement: “Historically, we have under-predicted.”  He went on to explain: “NREL’s 1998 prediction of the penetration of renewables for 2020 was only 30% of  the 2013 number.”  In other words, we’re headed to beat the expectation for 2020 by an enormous margin.

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A Smart Energy Strategy in Japan: What's the Vision?

A Smart Energy Strategy in Japan: What's the Vision? | Sustainable Energy | Scoop.it

Japan’s national energy strategy experienced a 9.0 quake of its own in 2011 as a result of the twin incidents of the March 11 tsunami and subsequent Fukushima nuclear accident. It rattled many assumptions about energy sources and electrical grid configurations for its major corporations too. A recent Silicon Valley Technology Forum hosted by Fujitsu served as an excellent opportunity to hear how these large-scale events have shaped thinking and R&D in the leading information and communications (ICT) company in Japan, which also happens to be the third largest ICT company in the world. Their thoughts and R&D can help contribute to North American ideas and directions to improve our energy surety as well as grid reliability and resiliency that the Smart Grid’s modernization activities must deliver.

Fujitsu’s Smart Energy vision focuses on three trends:

  1. local generation and consumption
  2. increased sensing and remote control in transmission and distribution grids
  3. increased demand response (DR) technologies and distribution grid-sited storage.
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Electric Power Grid Expansion Essential to Ensure Reliable Future Energy Supplies

Electric Power Grid Expansion Essential to Ensure Reliable Future Energy Supplies | Sustainable Energy | Scoop.it
Another focus of the research activities is the interconnection of the electric power grid with the existing gas distribution network in order to use gas distribution networks as energy storages. The Helmholtz Association will subsidise the Energy Alliance with 3.2 million Euros from its Initiative and Networking Fund in 2013 and 2014.
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Sustainable Energy Roadmaps | Worldwatch Institute

Sustainable Energy Roadmaps | Worldwatch Institute | Sustainable Energy | Scoop.it

Transitioning from a carbon-intensive economy to a low-carbon future presents challenges and opportunities for developing countries. The Sustainable Energy Roadmaps help countries successfully navigate the change to an infrastructure capable of meeting the energy challenges of the 21st century.


The approach examines a country’s potential for renewable energy production such as wind, solar, small hydropower and biomass. Existing energy infrastructure is analyzed to identify the potential for, and hurdles to, increased efficiency and energy storage. At the same time, current socio-economic and policy environments are factored into the analysis to identify barriers to low-carbon development and determine international best practices to suggest how they can be overcome. Equally important, funding options that might be available from private, public, and multilateral institutions to help bring renewable energy projects into being are assessed.

The project strengthens government and civil society capacity, enhances stakeholder engagement, and advances policies that combat climate change...


Learn more about the program and sustainable energy roadmaps at the article link.


Via Lauren Moss, Stephane Bilodeau
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Michelle Coe's curator insight, October 10, 2013 1:27 PM

Some US states need to follow this roadmap!

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IEA Predicts Global Demand for Gas to Rise 50% by 2035

IEA Predicts Global Demand for Gas to Rise 50% by 2035 | Sustainable Energy | Scoop.it
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has launched the 2012 edition of its comprehensive publication, the World Energy Outlook (WEO). One of its stand-out predictions is that the United States could be close to self-sufficient in energy by 2035.
Via Audrey Moreaux
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International Energy Agency Changes its Tune: Predicts Catastrophic 6C Increase in Global Temp by 2050

International Energy Agency Changes its Tune: Predicts Catastrophic 6C Increase in Global Temp by 2050 | Sustainable Energy | Scoop.it

"Commenting on global CO2 emissions data last month, Birol said the trend is “perfectly in line” with a temperature increase of 6 degrees C by 2050. That, he added, “would have devastating consequences for the planet.”"


Via Dave Howe
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Why Energy Experts Get Things Wrong So Often

Why Energy Experts Get Things Wrong So Often | Sustainable Energy | Scoop.it

"Partisans across the opinion spectrum are vulnerable to occasional bouts of ideologically induced insanity." -- Philip Tetlock

After the unpredicted fall of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s due primarily to an oil price shock, Philip Tetlock, a U.S. psychologist, started to question the wisdom of experts.

It seemed rather incredible to Tetlock that political commentators, including Soviet scholars, had uniformly failed to forecast the dissolution of the world's second mightiest empire. Tetlock wondered why and how they could be so blind and dumb?

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Australia Could be Powered by 100% Renewable Energy Within 10 Years

Australia Could be Powered by 100% Renewable Energy Within 10 Years | Sustainable Energy | Scoop.it

It’s perhaps a bit surprising that Australia—with its sunny self-presentation—is not only the world’s largest exporter of coal, but at 28 billion tonnes of CO2 per year creates the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the world. In tandem with this, the country also has immense potential for generating renewable energy; it really is quite sunny, with large areas of open land and surrounded by water. So much so, claims a report by the University of Melbourne and the collaborative Zero Carbon Australia Project, that the country could be powered by solar and wind energy alone within 10 years—if the political will existed.

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Getting It Wrong: A Brief History of Energy Forecasts

Getting It Wrong: A Brief History of Energy Forecasts | Sustainable Energy | Scoop.it

History would suggest that little or none of what the IEA, or anyone else, projects will come to pass.  As my forthcoming book, U.S. Energy Policy and the Pursuit of Failure (Cambridge University Press), details, energy forecasts of the past 60 or so years have been so far off that they would be comical but for the fact that the government often spent billions of taxpayer dollars because of them.

Hans De Keulenaer's insight:

The purpuse of forecasting is creating the future. It is not prediction.

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Stephane Bilodeau's curator insight, December 24, 2012 9:15 AM

"Recent forecasts argue the U.S. will be energy independent in the next decade or maybe two. Or at least North America will be energy independent, with the U.S. taking the place of Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer.  The U.S. will also be a net energy exporter—meaning we will export a greater energy equivalent of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal than we will import in oil.  Press reports of these studies seem at times to be near euphoric:  at last, energy independence!"


But just how seriously we should take projections—no one likes the word “forecast”—that extend out two decades or more...


So many other considerations have to be taken into account in the World Energy Balance :  Population growth, Developping countries' fast "development", Climate change impacts, etc.



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Long Term County Energy Plan Revealed

Long Term County Energy Plan Revealed | Sustainable Energy | Scoop.it
The CEP lists six primary areas in which the county intends to implement the plan: buildings, district energy, renewable energy, transportation, county government actions, and education and human behavior.
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Report: 80% of U.S Electricity Can Be Supplied by Renewables by 2050

Report: 80% of U.S Electricity Can Be Supplied by Renewables by 2050 | Sustainable Energy | Scoop.it
Renewable energy can supply 80% of US electricity demand by 2050, concludes a report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Renewabl.
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