Findings show that people (not technology) will drive change, revenue is the ultimate goal, and HE is globalising, but gradually
"What will higher education look like in 2020?" Tackling this broad question was a departure from the usual data-led work of the Observatory on Borderless Higher Education where I am director. The short answer is that 2020 is only seven years away and, with a bit of luck, things should not get much worse.
The approach of our recent Horizon Scanning report for the International Unit and Leadership Foundation for Higher Education was dictated partly by the current landscape of higher education and further shaped by judgement. Its frame of reference included transnational education (TNE), Moocs, and ongoing debates around the sustainability of recruitment and international mobility. Other contributing factors were funding, student trends, trade liberalisation and the role of international rankings.
The paper concludes with a note on disruptive political change – while intended to be relevant to planning and policy decisions, it is descriptive and analytical rather than prescriptive. Here are three key digests from its findings: