The days of Latin American economies basking in the glow of high commodity prices, cheap cash and rampant Chinese demand appear to be over.
Nice article, highlighting argument that LATAM countries will be unequally affected in event of repatriation of capital flow back to US and other western economies, if/when interest rates rise. Those countries that have got their house more in order during the commodity supercycle of the last 15 years via stronger institutions, more sensible fiscal rules via investment of the proceeds of the good times into supply side policies etc will be less exposed to this capital outflow risk.
The postwar era has been staggeringly inflationary compared to the more distant past. When I was in my early teens in the 1970s, my mother kept a cupboard stuffed with goods such as coffee and sugar. She bought them when there was an offer, or she
Great article on relative merits of inflation v deflation. Key downside risk of deflation today on countries UK is increasing debt burden, particularly when they are already so highly indebted.
The absence of state capacity – that is, of the services and protections that people in rich countries take for granted – is one of the major causes of poverty and deprivation around the world. Unfortunately, the world’s rich countries currently are making things worse.
A large, colourfully painted sign hangs above the entrance to the depths of Jhanjra, the largest underground mine in West Bengal’s Raniganj coal belt. The left side shows Indian mining as it once was, with roughly drawn cartoon figures wielding
Interesting FT article which makes the mind wander around the limitations to, and conflicting priorities in, economic development, and on the impact of protectionism.
Coal India - India's state-backed monopoly (and largest miner in the world employing 350,000 staff) - isn't digging coal quickly or efficiently enough to meet the ravenous demand of Indian consumers and businesses. The government has to import coal to make up the shortfall and subsidising these costs isn’t sustainable. So it has set targets to boost production by 2020, accepting critics' view that this must be done if India is to become a global manufacturing powerhouse.
Will it suceed in doing this and how? Will allowing FDI in with its more efficient capital, and opening up the sector be a better development solution than the current state of affairs with Coal India? Or is the limiting factor to coal output the country’s business and physical infrastructure?
If India does succeed, obviously the trade off is all the negative externalities associated with worsening air pollution. Is there are better development strategy?
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