Economia y sistemas complejos
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Economia y sistemas complejos
temas interdisciplinarios sobre economia y complejidad
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A Complex Systems Science Approach to Healthcare Costs and Quality

There is a mounting crisis in delivering affordable healthcare in the US. For decades, key decision makers in the public and private sectors have considered cost-effectiveness in healthcare a top priority. Their actions have focused on putting a limit on fees, services, or care options. However, they have met with limited success as costs have increased rapidly while the quality isn't commensurate with the high costs. A new approach is needed. Here we provide eight scientifically-based steps for improving the healthcare system. The core of the approach is promoting the best use of resources by matching the people and organization to the tasks they are good at, and providing the right incentive structure. Harnessing costs need not mean sacrificing quality. Quality service and low costs can be achieved by making sure the right people and the right organizations deliver services. As an example, the frequent use of emergency rooms for non-emergency care demonstrates the waste of resources of highly capable individuals and facilities resulting in high costs and ineffective care. Neither free markets nor managed care guarantees the best use of resources. A different oversight system is needed to promote the right incentives. Unlike managed care, effective oversight must not interfere with the performance of care. Otherwise, cost control only makes care more cumbersome. The eight steps we propose are designed to dramatically improve the effectiveness of the healthcare system, both for those who receive services and those who provide them.

 

A Complex Systems Science Approach to Healthcare Costs and Quality
Yaneer Bar-Yam with Shlomiya Bar-Yam, Karla Z. Bertrand, Nancy Cohen, Alexander S. Gard-Murray, Helen P. Harte, Luci Leykum

http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.0034


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5th Annual Complexity in Business Conference

The Annual Complexity in Business Conference endeavors to be the premier meeting for the intersection of Complex Systems and Business. The 5th annual conference will be a one and a half day event and will include talks by thought leaders and an audience blend of academics and industry practitioners. We are very excited to announce that this year we will be having a concurrent track during the conference and will be accepting abstract submissions from the public. We are looking forward to a lively set of interactions among a very distinguished group of researchers and business leaders. On Thursday, November 7 at 3:00 p.m. a series of talks at the Ronald Reagan Building will kick off the conference, followed by a cocktail reception and dinner at a D.C. restaurant.

 


5th Annual Complexity in Business Conference Thursday and Friday, November 7 and 8, 2013 • Washington, DC 

http://www.rhsmith.umd.edu/ccb/conference/2013/


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Economics: A tale of cash and credit

The macroeconomist Felix Martin covers a vast geographical and historical spread in his argument that we have it all wrong about money. Money: The Unauthorised Biography reveals that credit has a crucial role in society, but that many misunderstandings persist about the relationship of credit to gold or fiat money. The latest views on microeconomic theory get no airing here, yet such developments point to a scientific shift towards an information-processing and network analysis of money and credit markets in a dynamic evolving economy.

 

Economics: A tale of cash and credit

Martin Shubik
Nature 498, 35 (06 June 2013) http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/498035a


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Employment Growth through Labor Flow Networks

Employment Growth through Labor Flow Networks | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

It is conventional in labor economics to treat all workers who are seeking new jobs as belonging to a labor pool, and all firms that have job vacancies as an employer pool, and then match workers to jobs. Here we develop a new approach to study labor and firm dynamics. By combining the emerging science of networks with newly available employment micro-data, comprehensive at the level of whole countries, we are able to broadly characterize the process through which workers move between firms. Specifically, for each firm in an economy as a node in a graph, we draw edges between firms if a worker has migrated between them, possibly with a spell of unemployment in between. An economy's overall graph of firm-worker interactions is an object we call the labor flow network (LFN). This is the first study that characterizes a LFN for an entire economy. We explore the properties of this network, including its topology, its community structure, and its relationship to economic variables. It is shown that LFNs can be useful in identifying firms with high growth potential. We relate LFNs to other notions of high performance firms. Specifically, it is shown that fewer than 10% of firms account for nearly 90% of all employment growth. We conclude with a model in which empirically-salient LFNs emerge from the interaction of heterogeneous adaptive agents in a decentralized labor market.

 

Guerrero OA, Axtell RL (2013) Employment Growth through Labor Flow Networks. PLoS ONE 8(5): e60808. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0060808


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Big Data Needs a Big Theory to Go with It

Big Data Needs a Big Theory to Go with It | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

As the world becomes increasingly complex and interconnected, some of our biggest challenges have begun to seem intractable. What should we do about uncertainty in the financial markets? How can we predict energy supply and demand? How will climate change play out? How do we cope with rapid urbanization? Our traditional approaches to these problems are often qualitative and disjointed and lead to unintended consequences. To bring scientific rigor to the challenges of our time, we need to develop a deeper understanding of complexity itself.


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Luciano Lampi's curator insight, May 30, 2013 9:25 AM

A concise and objective tour over CAS!

Víctor Farré's curator insight, June 4, 2013 6:00 AM

Si integramos la complejdad en una nueva teoría más holística, paradojicamente llegamos a la conclusión de que se podfrán hacer algunas predicciones probabilisticas sobre algunos parámetros escogidos de sistemas complejos como el mercado financiero de base digital. En resumen se podrá establecer la probabilidad de un crash financiero en los próximos siete años. Big Deal! 

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Life in the City Is Essentially One Giant Math Problem

Life in the City Is Essentially One Giant Math Problem | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it
Experts in the emerging field of quantitative urbanism believe that many aspects of modern cities can be reduced to mathematical formulas
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The predictability of consumer visitation patterns

We consider hundreds of thousands of individual economic transactions to ask: how predictable are consumers in their merchant visitation patterns? Our results suggest that, in the long-run, much of our seemingly elective activity is actually highly predictable. Notwithstanding a wide range of individual preferences, shoppers share regularities in how they visit merchant locations over time. Yet while aggregate behavior is largely predictable, the interleaving of shopping events introduces important stochastic elements at short time scales. These short- and long-scale patterns suggest a theoretical upper bound on predictability, and describe the accuracy of a Markov model in predicting a person's next location. We incorporate population-level transition probabilities in the predictive models, and find that in many cases these improve accuracy. While our results point to the elusiveness of precise predictions about where a person will go next, they suggest the existence, at large time-scales, of regularities across the population.

 

The predictability of consumer visitation patterns

Coco Krumme, Alejandro Llorente, Manuel Cebrian, Alex ("Sandy") Pentland & Esteban Moro

Scientific Reports 3, Article number: 1645 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep01645


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The Economic Complexity Observatory | Macro Connections

The Economic Complexity Observatory | Macro Connections | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it
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The Economic Complexity Observatory

The Economic Complexity Observatory is a multidisciplinary effort between the Macro Connections group at the MIT Media Lab and the Center for International Development at Harvard University. The goal of the observatory is to develop new tools that can help visualize and make sense of large volumes of data that are relevant for macroeconomic development decision making.

Currently the observatory is serving more than 1,000,000 different interactive visualizations, connecting hundreds of countries to their export destinations and to the products that they trade.

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The dynamic of Spain's population follows the maximum entropy principle

The dynamic of Spain's population follows the maximum entropy principle | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it
A team of Spanish and Argentinean researchers have verified that the distribution of the inhabitants in each Spanish province evolves in accordance with the maximum entropy principle in the field of physics.
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...Un equipo de investigadores españoles y argentinos han comprobado que la distribución de los habitantes en cada provincia española evoluciona de acuerdo con el principio de máxima entropía en el campo de la física. Por lo tanto, esta evolución es predecible. Los resultados han permitido a los autores a proponer un "socio-termodinámico" teoría que aplica las leyes de la termodinámica a la conducta humana colectiva.

 más en: http://phys.org/news/2013-03-dynamic-spain-population-maximum-entropy.html # JCP

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Sistemas complejos y el Tribunal Supremo de Estados Unidos

Sistemas complejos y el Tribunal Supremo de Estados Unidos | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it
Un algoritmo basado en la red de relaciones internas entre los miembros del tribunal predice sus decisiones con más acierto que los expertos legales conocedores del caso.
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Building a better model

Building a better model | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it
MOST contemporary macroeconomic models are built around the idea of “equilibrium”. Put crudely, this means that an economy expanding at its...
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La Economía desde la perspectiva de los Sistemas Complejos mediante Modelos Basados en Agentes.

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De las epidemias a la bolsa de valores. Revista Ciencias (UNAM) número 64 octubre-diciembre 2001

De las epidemias a la bolsa de valores.                                                   Revista Ciencias  (UNAM) número 64 octubre-diciembre 2001 | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it
Revista ciencias de la Facultad de Ciencias de la Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

 

De las epidemias a la bolsa de valores

 

 Ricardo Mansilla  

 

Comprender los procesos de propagación de enfermedades es un problema que se aborda con gran apoyo matemático.

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The Diffusion of Microfinance

How do the network positions of the first individuals in a society to receive information about a new product affect its eventual diffusion? To answer this question, we develop a model of information diffusion through a social network that discriminates between information passing (individuals must be aware of the product before they can adopt it, and they can learn from their friends) and endorsement (the decisions of informed individuals to adopt the product might be influenced by their friends’ decisions). We apply it to the diffusion of microfinance loans, in a setting where the set of potentially first-informed individuals is known. We then propose two new measures of how “central” individuals are in their social network with regard to spreading information; the centrality of the first-informed individuals in a village helps significantly in predicting eventual adoption.

The Diffusion of Microfinance
Abhijit Banerjee, Arun G. Chandrasekhar, Esther Duflo, Matthew O. Jackson

Science 26 July 2013:
Vol. 341 no. 6144
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1236498


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Socionomy, the Economy 2.0

Dirk Helbing, ETH Zurich.

 

2013/07/08, Lipari Summer School on Computational Complex Systems.

 

http://vimeo.com/70774996


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Complexity Explorer

Complexity Explorer | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it
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Complexity Economics: Interviews with Doyne Farmer and Brian Arthur

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Horizons in Social Sciences 2013

Horizons in Social Sciences 2013 | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

Nowadays there is an ongoing intense scientific debate around the definition of the foundational concepts as well as about the most appropriate methodological approaches to deal with the understanding of social dynamics. The challenge of understanding human behaviors is complex and intricate. Humans are intentional (and not necessarily rational) and the dynamics of social behavior are influenced by multitude of factors. In particular, with the advent of the Big Data era– i.e. the explosion of available datasets from technological mediated communication – that challenge has increased its complexity. If on the one hand we can have access to an enormous set of observable social and mobility traces, on the other hand there is a lack of theoretical concepts to ground and interpret data as an expression of individual and social behavior. The event is intended to gather the most proficient scientists and companies working at the edge of the computational social science and big data to detail the new frontiers and challenges with an interdisciplinary, tight and non reductionist approach.The symposium is open to all researchers, scientists and practitioners.

 

Invited Speakers: Alessandro Vespignani, David Lazer, Nicola Santoro

 

July 11, 2013 - IMT Lucca, Italy

http://networks.imtlucca.it/index.php/events


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Dmitry Alexeev's curator insight, June 28, 2013 12:12 AM

this is what we will do when manage all current stuff - build a social bacteria network)

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Statistics shows that economic prosperity needs both high scientific productivity and complex technological knowledge, but in different ways

Statistical analyses ... showed that ...scientific productivity correlates stronger with Gross National Income than technological sophistication; that science is important for economic growth among developed economies, whereas technical complexity is more important for the economic development of poorer countries; and that per capita scientific productivity seems to reach an upper limit in the most developed countries... 

 

Statistics shows that economic prosperity needs both high scientific productivity and complex technological knowledge, but in different ways. Jaffe K., Rios, A. & Florez, A. Interciencia 38: 150-156, 2013.

http://atta.labb.usb.ve/Klaus/art194.pdf


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Mathematicians analyze social divisions using cell phone data

Mathematicians analyze social divisions using cell phone data | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it
Differences divide us. Human society fractures along lines defined by politics, religion, ethnicity, and perhaps most fundamentally, language.
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Rethinking Economics Using Complexity Theory

In this paper we argue that if we want to find a more satisfactory approach to tackling the major socio-economic problems we are facing, we need to thoroughly rethink the basic assumptions of macroeconomics and financial theory. Making minor modifications to the standard models to remove “imperfections” is not enough, the whole framework needs to be revisited.

 

Dirk Helbing and Alan Kirman: Rethinking Economics Using Complexity Theory http://www.soms.ethz.ch/paper_economics_complexity_theory


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ComplexInsight's curator insight, April 26, 2013 2:16 AM

One for some travel-time reading.

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Data from social networks are making social science more scientific

Data from social networks are making social science more scientific | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it
“FOUNDATION”, a novel by Isaac Asimov from the golden age of science fiction, imagines a science called psychohistory which enables its practitioners to predict...
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WEHIA 2013

WEHIA 2013 | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it
18th Annual Workshop on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents
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18th Workshop on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents (WEHIA 2013) offers an opportunity to present the latest research on various aspects of the economy as a complex system made up of multiple heterogeneous interacting agents. Research from different domains, at the crossing of various disciplines – economics, psychology, sociology, computer sciences, engineering, physics - are useful for developing more satisfactory approaches to (macro) econometrics and (macro) economic theory. These approaches have already brought some improvement in the understanding of problems facing the world economy, such as the financial crisis, segregation, unemployment and poverty, and the need for sustainable development. The workshop aims to make progress in understanding and solving them. 
Topics:Workshop topics will cover research in all areas benefitting by models of interacting agents. Contributions with empirical applications will be also appreciated. The topics include, but are not limited to:Agent-based Models and Simulators of the EconomyAggregation and Emergent MacroeconomicsEconophysics and Statistical Equilibrium ModelsExperimental EconomicsFinancial Fragility ModelsGeneral Equilibrium Model with Heterogeneous AgentsEconomic Development, Technological Change and GrowthSocio-economic and Financial NetworksPolicy Design with Agent-based ModelsBounded Rationality and Learning in EconomicsCollective decision and behaviors and Social IntelligenceEvolutionary Political EconomyEvolutionary Game TheoryMarket Structure and its EmergenceSustainability transtitions and climate change modelsSpatial agent models and urban complex adaptive systemsCalibration and Validation of Agent-based ModelsFormal Theories on Agent-based ApproachesPhilosophical issues of agent-based modeling
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Perspectives on a Hyperconnected World (pdf)


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Perspectives on a Hyperconnected World (pdf)

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How and why our conventional economic thinking causes global crises

(...) we are now living in a strongly coupled and strongly interdependent world, which poses new challenges. While it is probably unrealistic to go back beyond the level of networking and globalization we have reached, there is a great potential to develop new management approaches for our complex world based on suitable interaction rules and adaptive concepts, using real-time measurements.


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¿Cómo y por qué el pensamiento económico convencional provoca las crisis mundiales?

 

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The Evolutionary Ecology of Technological Innovations

The Evolutionary Ecology of Technological Innovations | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

Technological evolution has been compared to biological evolution by many authors over the last two centuries. As a parallel experiment of innovation involving economic, historical and social components, artifacts define a universe of evolving properties that displays episodes of diversification and extinction. Here we critically review previous work comparing the two types of evolution. Like biological evolution, technological evolution is driven by descent with variation and selection, and includes tinkering, convergence and contingency. At the same time there are essential differences that make the two types of evolution quite distinct. Major distinctions are illustrated by current specific examples, including the evolution of cornets and the historical dynamics of information technologies. Due to their fast and rich development, the later provide a unique opportunity to study technological evolution at all scales with unprecedented resolution. Despite the presence of patterns suggesting convergent trends between man-made systems end biological ones, they provide examples of planned design that have no equivalent with natural evolution.

 

The Evolutionary Ecology of Technological Innovations

Ricard V. Solé, Sergi Valverde, Marti Rosas Casals, Stuart Kauffman, Doyne Farmer, Niles Eldredge

SFI Working Paper 12-12-022

http://www.santafe.edu/research/working-papers/abstract/b1b04354b39d2aab7cbcc8a4ac97ef0e/


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La Economía evolutiva de las innovaciones tecnológicas.

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