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Why The Future Of Innovation Is Simulation

The result is now clear to just about everyone on the planet.  The smartest guys in the room were no match for terabytes of data and smart algorithms.  There is no one “theory of the case” anymore, but thousands of them, being run constantly.  The point isn’t to be right, but to become less wrong over time.


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ComplexInsight's curator insight, July 27, 2013 2:41 AM

Eric Bonabeau's team at Icosystems have helped pioneer commercial application of agent based modelling applications. It's nice to see them get some recognition in the Forbes article. However the article itself would have been much stronger if it had opened its scope and mentioned other teams such as Argonne National Labs (Repast), George Mason University (Mason), Uri Wilensky and the CCL team at NorthWestern (NetLogo). Technical University of Berlin/Federal Institute Zurich and Senozon (Matsim) amongst many others. All these teams have built platforms that are slowly but surely moving agent based simulation from academic theory to important real world applications and adoption. Nevertheless - good article and nice to see this being covered by the wider press.

luiy's curator insight, September 4, 2013 4:27 PM

When the Thomas Edison was asked about success amidst failure, he said that “If I find 10,000 ways something won’t work, I haven’t failed. I am not discouraged, because every wrong attempt discarded is another step forward.”


If Thomas Edison was alive today he would say that innovation is 1% inspiration and 99% simulation (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

With that kind of dedication, it’s no wonder that Edison  was awarded over 1000 patents, including the light bulb, the phonograph and the motion picture camera, making him one of the most prolific inventors in history.

It also becomes clear why he regarded success as “1% inspiration and 99% perspiration.”  Failing 10,000 times is a physical and mental undertaking that far exceeds most people’s endurance.  Today, however, a new breed of innovators are outsourcing failure to computer simulations and it’s changing everything we thought we knew about business strategy.

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Which famous economist are you most similar to?

Which famous economist are you most similar to? | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

Which famous economist are you most similar to? To find out, answer the questions below and watch your dot move around the graph. Click on blue circles to see economist webpages. Click on questions to see survey data.

All questions and data were taken from the excellent IGM Economic Experts Panel, a survey of a diverse set of economists.


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An evolutionary, ecosystem view of economies

An evolutionary, ecosystem view of economies | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it
To understand market perturbations like crashes and bubbles, SFI Distinguished Professor Geoffrey West and three co-authors advocate a revised view that treats an economy like biologists would think about an ecosystem rife with evolutionary dynamics.
"Here, we emphasize the importance of an ecosystems perspective: it is precisely due to the web of interdependencies among all companies that the unrestrained growth of one, or a few, companies leads to systematic imbalance."
The growth of such imbalances, they say, is a result of evolutionary processes often leading to feedback loops. Drawing on their recent paper in Proceedings of the Royal Society A, for example, the authors suggest that two mechanisms "act as catalysts for the emergence of a crisis. The first is banks copying the business models of the most (short-term) successful bank, which leads to loss of both diversity and resilience. The second is investors such as fund managers increasing their appetite for risk by trying to outperform competitors."

Via Ashish Umre
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Rationality in collective decision-making by ant colonies

Economic models of animal behaviour assume that decision-makers are rational, meaning that they assess options according to intrinsic fitness value and not by comparison with available alternatives. This expectation is frequently violated, but the significance of irrational behaviour remains controversial. One possibility is that irrationality arises from cognitive constraints that necessitate short cuts like comparative evaluation. If so, the study of whether and when irrationality occurs can illuminate cognitive mechanisms. We applied this logic in a novel setting: the collective decisions of insect societies. We tested for irrationality in colonies of Temnothorax ants choosing between two nest sites that varied in multiple attributes, such that neither site was clearly superior. In similar situations, individual animals show irrational changes in preference when a third relatively unattractive option is introduced. In contrast, we found no such effect in colonies. We suggest that immunity to irrationality in this case may result from the ants’ decentralized decision mechanism. A colony's choice does not depend on site comparison by individuals, but instead self-organizes from the interactions of multiple ants, most of which are aware of only a single site. This strategy may filter out comparative effects, preventing systematic errors that would otherwise arise from the cognitive limitations of individuals.


Via Jorge Louçã, NESS
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The sharing economy: promise and tension

The sharing economy: promise and tension | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it
For proponents of the “sharing economy” or of “collaborative consumption”, owning a car that spends more than 92% of its time parked is nothing more than an under-utilisation

Via Manu Fernandez
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The Microeconomics of Complex Economies - Evolutionary, Institutional, and Complexity Perspectives

The Microeconomics of Complex Economies - Evolutionary, Institutional, and Complexity Perspectives | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

by Wolfram Elsner, Torsten Heinrich, Henning Schwardt

 

The Microeconomics of Complex Economies uses game theory, modeling approaches, formal techniques, and computer simulations to teach useful, accessible approaches to real modern economies. It covers topics of information and innovation, including national and regional systems of innovation; clustered and networked firms; and open-source/open-innovation production and use. Its final chapter on policy perspectives and decisions confirms the value of the toolset.

Written so chapters can be used independently, the book includes simulation packages and pedagogical supplements. Its formal, accessible treatment of complexity goes beyond the scopes of neoclassical and mainstream economics. The highly interdependent economy of the 21st century demands a reconsideration of orthodox economic theories.


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Science in a Complex World: A small group of Santa Fe researchers changed economic thinking

Science in a Complex World: A small group of Santa Fe researchers changed economic thinking | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

Economics is a stately subject, prim and respectable, one that’s altered little since its modern foundations were laid in Victorian times. Now it is changing rapidly, thanks to the work of a small group of researchers over the last two decades in New Mexico. (...)

 

By W. Brian Arthur


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Complex networks analysis in socioeconomic models

This chapter aims at reviewing complex networks models and methods that were either developed for or applied to socioeconomic issues, and pertinent to the theme of New Economic Geography. After an introduction to the foundations of the field of complex networks, the present summary adds insights on the statistical mechanical approach, and on the most relevant computational aspects for the treatment of these systems. As the most frequently used model for interacting agent-based systems, a brief description of the statistical mechanics of the classical Ising model on regular lattices, together with recent extensions of the same model on small-world Watts-Strogatz and scale-free Albert-Barabasi complex networks is included. Other sections of the chapter are devoted to applications of complex networks to economics, finance, spreading of innovations, and regional trade and developments. The chapter also reviews results involving applications of complex networks to other relevant socioeconomic issues, including results for opinion and citation networks. Finally, some avenues for future research are introduced before summarizing the main conclusions of the chapter.


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Scaling and Predictability in Stock Markets: A Comparative Study

Scaling and Predictability in Stock Markets: A Comparative Study | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

Most people who invest in stock markets want to be rich, thus, many technical methods have been created to beat the market. If one knows the predictability of the price series in different markets, it would be easier for him/her to make the technical analysis, at least to some extent. Here we use one of the most basic sold-and-bought trading strategies to establish the profit landscape, and then calculate the parameters to characterize the strength of predictability. According to the analysis of scaling of the profit landscape, we find that the Chinese individual stocks are harder to predict than US ones, and the individual stocks are harder to predict than indexes in both Chinese stock market and US stock market. Since the Chinese (US) stock market is a representative of emerging (developed) markets, our comparative study on the markets of these two countries is of potential value not only for conducting technical analysis, but also for understanding physical mechanisms of different kinds of markets in terms of scaling.

 

 


Via Bernard Ryefield
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▶ Dirk Helbing on complexity in economic theory

This interview with Dirk Helbing on the Future of the economy is part of the Futurium Talking Futures interview series. More information is available here: https://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/en/interviews ;


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Eli Levine's curator insight, February 28, 12:12 AM

Indeed, it is when we shut the door and turn our backs on those and that which do us harm, that we'll actually realize some real benefits amongst this species.


Think about it.

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The Bitcoin Economy [INFOGRAPHIC]

The Bitcoin Economy [INFOGRAPHIC] | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it
Everything you need to know.

Via Jean-Philippe BOCQUENET, NESS
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Delineating Geographical Regions with Networks of Human Interactions in an Extensive Set of Countries

Delineating Geographical Regions with Networks of Human Interactions in an Extensive Set of Countries | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

Large-scale networks of human interaction, in particular country-wide telephone call networks, can be used to redraw geographical maps by applying algorithms of topological community detection. The geographic projections of the emerging areas in a few recent studies on single regions have been suggested to share two distinct properties: first, they are cohesive, and second, they tend to closely follow socio-economic boundaries and are similar to existing political regions in size and number. Here we use an extended set of countries and clustering indices to quantify overlaps, providing ample additional evidence for these observations using phone data from countries of various scales across Europe, Asia, and Africa: France, the UK, Italy, Belgium, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, and Ivory Coast. In our analysis we use the known approach of partitioning country-wide networks, and an additional iterative partitioning of each of the first level communities into sub-communities, revealing that cohesiveness and matching of official regions can also be observed on a second level if spatial resolution of the data is high enough. The method has possible policy implications on the definition of the borderlines and sizes of administrative regions.

 

Sobolevsky S, Szell M, Campari R, Couronné T, Smoreda Z, et al. (2013) Delineating Geographical Regions with Networks of Human Interactions in an Extensive Set of Countries. PLoS ONE 8(12): e81707. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081707


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Minsky's Creators Talk Economic Modeling, Bitcoin, and Chaos Theory

Minsky's Creators Talk Economic Modeling, Bitcoin, and Chaos Theory | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

The software's designers talked with SourceForge about the challenges of simulating economic models, especially in turbulent times.


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Hedonometer

Hedonometer | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

Hedonometer.org is an instrument that measures the happiness of large populations in real time.


Via Claudia Mihai
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luiy's curator insight, February 5, 6:16 AM
Happiness

It’s what most people say they want. So how do we know how happy people are? You can’t improve or understand what you can’t measure. In a blow to happiness, we’re very good at measuring economic indices and this means we tend to focus on them. With hedonometer.org we’ve created an instrument that measures the happiness of large populations in real time.

 

Our hedonometer is based on people’s online expressions, capitalizing on data-rich social media, and we’re measuring how people present themselves to the outside world. For our first version of hedonometer.org, we’re using Twitter as a source but in principle we can expand to any data source in any language (more below). We’ll also be adding an API soon.

 

So this is just a start — we invite you to explore the Twitter time series and let us know what you think.

Eli Levine's curator insight, February 5, 11:03 AM

Isn't this what we're all looking for?

Happiness, health and well being?

 

There's a very good reason how Thomas Jefferson said "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness", rather than property.

 

Yet we've confused the two to such an extent that we end up having neither on the general, collective sense (which basically boils down to being the majority of the individuals living in a society).

 

Think about it.

Jean-Michel Livowsky's curator insight, February 6, 6:42 AM

La mesure électronique du bonheur et du bien-être... Le Bhoutan et le «bonheur national brut»  n'ont qu'a bien se tenir, il est vrai que le concept a été enterré depuis peu...

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Lost in the City: Revisiting Milgram's Experiment in the Age of Social Networks

Lost in the City: Revisiting Milgram's Experiment in the Age of Social Networks | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

As more and more users access social network services from smart devices with GPS receivers, the available amount of geo-tagged information makes repeating classical experiments possible on global scales and with unprecedented precision. Inspired by the original experiments of Milgram, we simulated message routing within a representative sub-graph of the network of Twitter users with about 6 million geo-located nodes and 122 million edges. We picked pairs of users from two distant metropolitan areas and tried to find a route between them using local geographic information only; our method was to forward messages to a friend living closest to the target. We found that the examined network is navigable on large scales, but navigability breaks down at the city scale and the network becomes unnavigable on intra-city distances. This means that messages usually arrived to the close proximity of the target in only 3–6 steps, but only in about 20% of the cases was it possible to find a route all the way to the recipient, in spite of the network being connected.


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Complexity in Economics: Cutting Edge Research (New Economic Windows): Marisa Faggini, Anna Parziale: 9783319051840: Amazon.com: Books

Complexity in Economics: Cutting Edge Research (New Economic Windows)

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Complexity in Economics: Cutting Edge Research (New Economic Windows) [Marisa Faggini, Anna Parziale] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. In this book, leading experts discuss innovative components of complexity theory and chaos theory in economics. The underlying perspective is that investigations of economic phenomena should view these phenomena not as deterministic
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International Student Initiative For Pluralism in Economics

International Student Initiative For Pluralism  in Economics | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

It is not only the world economy that is in crisis. The teaching of economics is in crisis too, and this crisis has consequences far beyond the university walls. What is taught shapes the minds of the next generation of policymakers, and therefore shapes the societies we live in. We, 42 associations of economics students from 19 different countries, believe it is time to reconsider the way economics is taught. We are dissatisfied with the dramatic narrowing of the curriculum that has taken place over the last couple of decades. This lack of intellectual diversity does not only restrain education and research. It limits our ability to contend with the multidimensional challenges of the 21st century - from financial stability, to food security and climate change. The real world should be brought back into the classroom, as well as debate and a pluralism of theories and methods. This will help renew the discipline and ultimately create a space in which solutions to society’s problems can be generated.(...)


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Using Complex Networks to Characterize International Business Cycles

Using Complex Networks to Characterize International Business Cycles | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

Background

 

There is a rapidly expanding literature on the application of complex networks in economics that focused mostly on stock markets. In this paper, we discuss an application of complex networks to study international business cycles.

Methodology/Principal Findings

 

We construct complex networks based on GDP data from two data sets on G7 and OECD economies. Besides the well-known correlation-based networks, we also use a specific tool for presenting causality in economics, the Granger causality. We consider different filtering methods to derive the stationary component of the GDP series for each of the countries in the samples. The networks were found to be sensitive to the detrending method. While the correlation networks provide information on comovement between the national economies, the Granger causality networks can better predict fluctuations in countries’ GDP. By using them, we can obtain directed networks allows us to determine the relative influence of different countries on the global economy network. The US appears as the key player for both the G7 and OECD samples.


Via Bernard Ryefield
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Eli Levine's curator insight, March 29, 3:13 PM

These are the natural laws and connections which exist amongst various economies and within each economy.  This shows the interconnectedness of the whole planet's economy and can give predictions as to what could happen if one particular economy were to crash and fall into valuelessness for humanity.

 

It's interesting that this research comes at a time in our history when the natural laws of social interactions are being violated by governments and elite groups everywhere.  What will happen if discontent turns into unrest and rebellions in the United States?  What happens if the authority of governments ceases to be legitimate, to the point where violence and anarchy take their place.  What will happen to the economy if the rule of law is no longer abided, and the mob takes over to deal with the perceived injustices that the elite groups have committed against the general public?

 

What happens when the environment gives way and our societies are no longer able to support the populations that are present?  What happens when people are forced to either starve or fight?

 

That's the direction that we're headed towards, I'm afraid. 

Funny how it is that the conservatives from all parties who enacted these policies, are leading to the very destruction of society that they're so afraid of.  Funny how it is that things get more delicate and likely to change significantly as they cling to their image of how the past was (and it is just an image of the past, not the real world as it was, is or will be).

 

Silly brains.

 

Think about it.

António F Fonseca's curator insight, March 31, 6:34 AM

Crisis transmission, lookout for USA, Ireland and Spain!

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La prospettiva della complessità nello studio dei sistemi urbani e regionali, e nell’economia in generale — ComplexLab

La prospettiva della complessità nello studio dei sistemi urbani e regionali, e nell’economia in generale — ComplexLab | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it
A cosa serve l'approccio della complessità...? Bertuglia e Vaio danno da sempre svariate risposte pratiche ed efficaci a numerosi ambiti anche delle Scienze Sociali, dell'Economia, dell'Urbanistica. Un articolo su come, in pratica, la Complessità ci aiuti a decidere e a vivere meglio.
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Remaking the industrial economy

Remaking the industrial economy | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

Visualize, for a moment, the industrial economy as a massive system of conveyor belts—one that directs materials and energy from resource-rich countries to manufacturing powerhouses, such as China, and then spirits the resulting products onward to the United States, Europe, and other destinations, where they are used, discarded, and replaced. While this image is an exaggeration, it does capture the essence of the linear, one-way production model that has dominated global manufacturing since the onset of the Industrial Revolution.

 

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/manufacturing/remaking_the_industrial_economy


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Generating Social Practices

Generating Social Practices | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

Changing consumer behaviour is key to reducing the environmental effects of industrialised societies. Social practice theories provide an integrated approach to understanding consumer behaviour. The mechanisms underlying the emergence and diffusion of social practices are however until now poorly understood. This paper presents a conceptual framework and an abstract agent-based simulation model for generating social practices which use and extend approaches from social practice theories. The main results are twofold. First, the simulation model is able to generate social practices, what confirms that the conceptual framework captures relevant elements and processes. Second, a new mechanism for behavioural lock-in is identified that provides additional insights into the widely acknowledged challenge of changing social practices and respective consumption.

by Georg Holtz 

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 17 (1) 17

Published: 31-Jan-2014

 


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Eli Levine's curator insight, February 7, 9:50 AM

The human world seems to be becoming more aware of ourselves.  Hopefully, we'll finally be able to pull away from the philosophical and embrace the scientifically groundable reality that is, actually, working around us and within us.

 

Hopefully, humans will be able to keep to this course passionately and true.

 

However, humans are en masse a fickle species.

 

One generation's Classicism becomes the next generation's Romanticism.

 

Ah well....

 

Most you can do is try!

 

Think about it.

Rescooped by Complejidady Economía from Complexity - Complex Systems Theory
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Complexity Studies in Economics, a new course on the éToile Platform

Complexity Studies in Economics, a new course on the éToile Platform | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

This course is anchored on the seven main sections associated with the key Economics areas where the complex systems studies approach to economy has been known to have important influence. These sections are: Section I: A Philosophical and Methodological approach to Economy using Complexity Sciences; Section II: The structure of interaction; Section III: Macroeconomics and Growth; Section IV: Financial Markets; Section V: International and Monetary Economy Dynamics; Section VI: Regional Economic Systems; Section VII: Evolutionary Economic Dynamics. Other than discussing the literature, the students will be invited to model, implement and discuss some of the underlying mentioned models using social simulation programming libraries.


Via Jorge Louçã, NESS, Bernard Ryefield
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Birds, bees, and banks: lessons from collapsing ecosystems

Birds, bees, and banks: lessons from collapsing ecosystems | Economia y sistemas complejos | Scoop.it

Figuring out why financial crises emerge in seemingly stable economies is tough. Widespread collapses are notoriously difficult to predict - to do so requires a comprehensive view of a complex, interconnected system. But help may be at hand: experts in finance are now looking to certain fields of ecology to help provide this viewpoint.


Via Claudia Mihai
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