Econometric Investigation of Economic Crisis
32 views | +0 today
Follow
Your new post is loading...
Your new post is loading...
Rescooped by Prof. Dr. Aysu Insel from "GE" | Global Economy - Küresel Ekonomi
Scoop.it!

Some Thoughts on Making Long-Term Forecasts for the World Economy

Some Thoughts on Making Long-Term Forecasts for the World Economy | Econometric Investigation of Economic Crisis | Scoop.it

Countries and international organizations working on longer-range development issues depend on long-term quantitative projections and scenario analysis. Such forecasting has become increasingly challenging, thanks to the rapid pace of globalization, technological progress, the interplay among them, and enhanced connectivity among people. As a result, seemingly isolated events can quickly lead to wide-ranging and lasting regional or even global consequences. This paper examines the problem of long-term economic forecasting in the face of increased complexity and uncertainty. With the benefit of hindsight, it scrutinizes past long-term qualitative and quantitative projections for the 1990s in order to draw lessons on how an institution can and should conduct long-term forecasting and policy analysis. The main conclusions are that policy makers and researchers across the world urgently need to see the big picture if they are to deal with the specific challenges and opportunities they will face over the long term as economies and global linkages undergo major structural changes under conditions of considerable uncertainty and volatility. Global institutions need to have strong research programs that work in close collaboration with other international organizations, academic centers, and independent experts on important long-term development issues ("blue sky" issues) and megatrends. These institutions need to build on their comparative strengths and form teams of in-house researchers and global experts who work on state-of-the-art models related to globalization, technological progress and innovations, climate change, demographic shifts, population, and labor force quality and their policy implications at both the global and country levels. Researchers should be encouraged to consider how global challenges such as financial crises, climate change, and infectious diseases can lead to breaks in economic trends and regime change and how such breaks affect economic activity. Alternative scenarios need to be created that incorporate the views of contrarian forecasters, including forecasts of possible shocks.


Via Aykut Kibritçioğlu
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Prof. Dr. Aysu Insel from "EE" | Economics & Economists - İktisat & İktisatçılar
Scoop.it!

What Do Economists Know?

What Do Economists Know? | Econometric Investigation of Economic Crisis | Scoop.it

How would you respond to a group of high school students when asked “What do economists know?”. Alan Budd’s answers will be familiar to readers of World Economics but bear repeating. Economics, unlike, say, Physics, tends to attract beliefs...


Via Aykut Kibritçioğlu
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Prof. Dr. Aysu Insel from "EE" | Economics & Economists - İktisat & İktisatçılar
Scoop.it!

İktisatla İlgili Makaleleri İnternette Nerede Aramalı?

İktisatla İlgili Makaleleri İnternette Nerede Aramalı? | Econometric Investigation of Economic Crisis | Scoop.it

İktisat öğrencileri ve araştırmacılarının ödev veya araştırmalarıyla ilgili kaynak (özellikle akademik makale) araştırırken başvurabilecekleri temel (internet) kaynakları bence şunlar:

JEL EconLitEconPapersSSRN Economics Research Network


Via Aykut Kibritçioğlu
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Prof. Dr. Aysu Insel from "EE" | Economics & Economists - İktisat & İktisatçılar
Scoop.it!

Krugman: "Plain ordinary macro has worked fine"

Krugman: "Plain ordinary macro has worked fine" | Econometric Investigation of Economic Crisis | Scoop.it

Still thinking my way through the Reinhart-Rogoff debacle and related issues, and I think there’s an important point to be made here about the state of macroeconomics.

 

You can already see quite a few people reacting to this affair by declaring that macro is humbug, we don’t know anything, and we should just ignore economists’ pronouncements. Some of the people saying this are economists themselves!

 

But the truth is that basic macroeconomics — IS-LM type macro, the stuff that’s in Econ 101 textbooks — has performed spectacularly well in the crisis.


Via Aykut Kibritçioğlu
more...
Aykut Kibritçioğlu's comment, April 26, 2013 5:52 AM
Bu yazısında, Paul Krugman; (1) Reinhart & Rogoff veya Alesina & Ardagna türü yaklaşımların ve (2) krizi aşmada onların bulgu ve politika önerilerine dayanarak "kemer sıktıran" (austerity) politikacıların sonradan iktisat(çılar) için yarattığı prestij kaybını çok iyi özetlemiş.
Scooped by Prof. Dr. Aysu Insel
Scoop.it!

Bahrain's medics politicised by crisis

Bahrain's medics politicised by crisis | Econometric Investigation of Economic Crisis | Scoop.it
Bahrain's medics have found themselves on the frontlines of a battle over medical neutrality as the aftershocks of the Arab Spring continue to rumble through the Gulf island kingdom, the BBC's Bill Law reports.
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Prof. Dr. Aysu Insel from "EE" | Economics & Economists - İktisat & İktisatçılar
Scoop.it!

Dave Giles: "Vintage Years in Econometrics - The 1930's"

Dave Giles: "Vintage Years in Econometrics - The 1930's" | Econometric Investigation of Economic Crisis | Scoop.it

We all know that when it comes to wine-making, some years yield better wine than others. If you like to sip a little wine while looking at pictures, then The Wine Advocate's "Vintage Chart" may appeal to you. (It's just a pity that they don't acknowledge the fact that there's more than one wine-producing region in New Zealand!) That got me thinking about vintage years for econometrics. Funny how the mind works, sometimes, isn't it? So, this post is for you budding students of econometrics. Our future lies with you, but it's not a bad thing to know something about our past! 

 

You've probably guessed already that this post is going to be the first of a series. No promises about when the others will appear, though!
In econometrics, what constitutes quality and importance is partly a matter of taste - just like wine! So, not all of you will agree with the choices I've made in the following compilation.


Via Aykut Kibritçioğlu
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Prof. Dr. Aysu Insel from "EE" | Economics & Economists - İktisat & İktisatçılar
Scoop.it!

Should economics rely on mathematical models?

Should economics rely on mathematical models? | Econometric Investigation of Economic Crisis | Scoop.it

Are economists too focused on mathematical models?

A blogging friend recently pointed me to a scholarly article discussing economics increasing reliance on mathematical models.

 

 

Dr. Gibson, an engineering and economics expert, takes a strong stance against the “allure” of mathematical models, arguing that they offer no significant contribution if the importance of common sense and human interaction is ignored.

 

He argues, “But while the mathematicians, some of them at least, are explicit about doing math for its own sake, engineers are hired to produce results and economists should be, too.”

 

According to Gibson, engineers realize that data and real-life experiments are the most important. A study reveals a different focus in economic papers.


Via Aykut Kibritçioğlu
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Prof. Dr. Aysu Insel from "GE" | Global Economy - Küresel Ekonomi
Scoop.it!

Two Policy Prescriptions for the Global Crisis by Kaushik Basu

Two Policy Prescriptions for the Global Crisis by Kaushik Basu | Econometric Investigation of Economic Crisis | Scoop.it

"One thing that experts know, and that non-experts do not, is that they know less than non-experts think they do." This much was evident at the just-completed Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group.


Via Aykut Kibritçioğlu
more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Prof. Dr. Aysu Insel
Scoop.it!

The 2011-2016 Outlook for Flat Panel Displays (FPDs) in The Middle East book download

Icon Group International


Download here http://boemnab.info/1/books/The-2011-2016-Outlook...

The 2011-2016 Outlook for Flat Panel Displays (FPDs) in The Middle East book download<br/><br/>Icon Group International<br/><br/><br/>Download here http://boemnab.info/1/books/The-2011-2016-Outlook... | Econometric Investigation of Economic Crisis | Scoop.it
The 2011-2016 Outlook for Flat Panel Displays (FPDs) in The Middle East book download

Icon Group International
http://t.co/VAGIQwy4tx
more...
No comment yet.