The bad news is that job creation, as widely feared, slowed as 2013 began and some hefty tax hikes took effect. The good news it that history has been rewritten and...
Rob Perhamus's insight:
It will require adding an average of 200,000 jobs per month for a period of 90 months(7.5 years) to return participation rates to 66% with a 6% unemployment rate.
I am going to add the links to BLS and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator in this post at the bottom. In the event that links are not allowed. I will explain how readers might find the same.
I wished to know how long it might take and how many jobs must be created each month to return to a 66% participation and 6% unemployment. With a few iterations, I found that an average of 200,000 jobs per month must be created for a period of 90 months(7.5 years) to achieve my desired "normal" targets.
Should the links not be allowed: Search on the phrase "Labor force participation" This should link you the BLS data and a chart showing history. With this data in mind, go to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator. You will need to enter the term Jobs Calculator in the search on that page.
The BLS data will show that for nearly 20 years, from 1989 through 2008, the labor participation rate was in the 66 to 67% range. In 2008, you will see a somewhat rapid decline to less than 64%, that is holding. With this in mind, you may adjust the numbers in the Fed's jobs calculator for your needs.
I am curious to see if any other readers might wish to use the same sources to arrive at different conclusions, or please let me know why this is not a valid approach to use. Thanks!
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