Previous work indicates that over the past 20 years, the highest quality work have been published in an increasingly diverse and larger group of journals. In this paper we examine whether this diversification has also affected the handful of elite journals that are traditionally considered to be the best. We examine citation patterns over the past 40 years of 7 long-standing traditionally elite journals and 6 journals that have been increasing in importance over the past 20 years. To be among the top 5% or 1% cited papers, papers now need about twice as many citations as they did 40 years ago. Since the late 1980s and early 1990s elite journals have been publishing a decreasing proportion of these top cited papers. This also applies to the two journals that are typically considered as the top venues and often used as bibliometric indicators of "excellence", Science and Nature. On the other hand, several new and established journals are publishing an increasing proportion of most cited papers. These changes bring new challenges and opportunities for all parties. Journals can enact policies to increase or maintain their relative position in the journal hierarchy. Researchers now have the option to publish in more diverse venues knowing that their work can still reach the same audiences. Finally, evaluators and administrators need to know that although there will always be a certain prestige associated with publishing in "elite" journals, journal hierarchies are in constant flux so inclusion of journals into this group is not permanent.
The authors: "With all these new journals, elite and otherwise, researchers now have increasingly more venues where they can submit their papers, and benefit from a visibility and availability that formerly was possible only for the most widely distributed journals, the “elite” journals. Given the high rejection rates of elite journals, around 93% for Science, for example, researchers might prefer to save time and submit their papers to other journals that ultimately will reach the same audience faster and potentially obtain as many citations. In the digital age it is relatively easy to determine the actual citation rate of individual papers or authors, so the value of a journal’s reputation is now less important. Nevertheless, researchers might still prefer to publish in elite journals. Whether justifiable or not, journal reputation still has some value to the papers therein, through a Mathew effect (Larivière and Gingras 2010), particularly when the research is viewed and evaluated by non-experts."
Source:Are elite journals declining?Vincent Lariviere, George A. Lozano, Yves Gingras(Submitted on 24 Apr 2013)arXiv:1304.6460