Decision Intelligence
13.7K views | +4 today
Follow
 
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
onto Decision Intelligence
Scoop.it!

Data needs to be used: over 10 petabytes of U.S. Climate and Weather data coming soon

Data needs to be used: over 10 petabytes of U.S. Climate and Weather data coming soon | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is seeking ways to release vast new troves of its data, a move that could be a boon for businesses.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

The NOAA (and other agencies) have huge repositories of data.  This is a treasure trove, waiting to be unlocked, but we need the right key.  It's not just about willy-nilly data mining.  Instead, the treasure will come from targeted, decision-focused analysis to find causative, not spurious, relationships.


As humans, we're not very good at "connecting the dots" from todays here-and-now actions to tomorrow's effects at a distance.  Visualizing these causal flows, informed by data like this set and more, is what's coming next.


From the article: "NOAA said it seeks to “unleash the potential” of its environmental data by working with entities outside of government. NOAA has 10s of petabytes of data stored in various ways, and produces more than 15 million products daily — from weather forecasts for New York City to tide-gauge observations in Seattle — which it said amounts to about 20 terabytes per day. This is twice the data of the entire printed collection of the U.S. Library of Congress, according to a press release."



more...
No comment yet.
Decision Intelligence
Decision intelligence (DI) is an interdisciplinary field with a mission to solve the world's most complex problems.  It is based on the premise that the decisionis most important when dealing with complexity.   Closely related to Decision Engineering, Decision intelligence draws upon  technology such as machine learning, visual decision modeling, complex systems modeling, big data, predictive analytics, machine learning, UX design, statistical analysis, business intelligence, business process management, causal reasoning, evidence-based analysis, and more. For an overview, see the webinar at http://youtu.be/XRTJt3bVCaEand more videos at http://www.youtube.com/quantellia. Many of these topics are vigorously discussed in the Decision Intelligence discussion group: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=205078.  See http://www.lorienpratt.com/the-decision-intelligence-and-decision-engineering-ecosystem/ to learn about the emerging ecosystem of decision intelligence companies, influencers, and problems solved. Also, I offer DI and machine learning consulting services, see http://bit.ly/1X8O2zF to learn more.
Curated by Lorien Pratt
Your new post is loading...
Your new post is loading...
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

The Ninth Intelligence

The Ninth Intelligence | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"In Howard Gardner's catalog of Multiple Intelligences, the Ninth Intelligence is the rarest of them all...."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

A great insight from Barry Kort.  And a beautiful little gem of a video trailer about Gregory Bateson here.  A couple of my favorite quotes:
"...He was interested in larger patterns, he was interested in how things are connected"

and

"The major problems of the world are the result of the difference between how nature works and how people think."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

New Spaceship Speed in Conway’s Game of Life

New Spaceship Speed in Conway’s Game of Life | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"To explain why this is such a groundbreaking discovery, I should first tell you that Life spaceships can be loosely divided into two categories. Engineered ships are the ones that consist of various small components. They often have adjustable speed. However, the population of tens of thousands to millions of cells causes these spaceships to have no practical value. There is much more incentive in hunting for elementary spaceships, which can be used for complex constructions."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Imagine you have a spreadsheet.  Some cells are black ("live"), others white.  Now you have software that updates that spreadsheet, using these simple rules:

  1. Any live cell with fewer than two live neighbours dies (referred to as underpopulation or exposure[1]).
  2. Any live cell with more than three live neighbours dies (referred to as overpopulation or overcrowding).
  3. Any live cell with two or three live neighbours lives, unchanged, to the next generation.
  4. Any dead cell with exactly three live neighbours will come to life.

As it turns out, there are emergent patterns from these simple rules: blinkers, "spaceships", and more.  And as shown in this article, an entire discipline has grown up around finding patterns that move, eat others, blink, and much much more.  I had no idea.

 

Why does this matter?  Because emergent patterns underlie everything.  From individual decisions made by people, individual strategies made by flocking birds, individual marketing decisions made by companies, and individual legislation introduced into governments, emerge *completely non-intuitive* patterns.

 

Understanding emergence is critical to solving the world's hardest problems, which happen as individual elements interact over time.  Much like the black and white cells on your spreadsheet.   

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

Wicked problems, machine learning, and the artistic brain

"What is the future of Silicon Valley technology? Will it always be about consumer applications, advertising, and media, or will we extend this technology to the wicked problems of the world?  And what role does art and media play?"

Lorien Pratt's insight:

A grand tour of decision intelligence, with a focus on art and visual reasoning, also including what's happening in the Silicon Valley SimCenter and the Reality Stack vision

Thanks to Don Kimber of FXPAL for making it happen

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

New evidence for subconscious rationality

New evidence for subconscious rationality | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Old-fashioned symbolic AI was based on the notion that reasoning happened consciously (and could be captured by logic and language).  Subsymbolic AI - of which today's (primarily neural network-based) machine learning is a subfield, recognizes that to emulate human thought, we must go beyond the consciously introspectable.

 

So what are the implications of subconscious rationality on decision intelligence?  If decisions are made "below the water line", then how can a consciously accessed thing - like a dashboard or visualization - help?  By training our subconscious reasoning. 

 

That's the core premise of DI: that we "train the brain" through rich, interactive, whole-body visualizations.  This article is good recent evidence that this is on the right track.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

Artificial intelligence and human limits

Artificial intelligence and human limits | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Are we getting dumber?  Or is stuff just harder? Both are true.  Between-silo problems are the new bottleneck.  We're inundated with information, so we take cognitive short cuts.   And "wicked" problems keep getting wickeder. Take this "invisible art" artist.  She sold a few.* Real decisions are made in the heart, the gut, based on…
more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

Vinay Gupta: The Man Who is Constantly Trying to Solve Humanity's Largest Problems and Save All of Our Lives

Vinay Gupta: The Man Who is Constantly Trying to Solve Humanity's Largest Problems and Save All of Our Lives | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Vinay Gupta is the smartest human you've never heard of. He's a technologist, inventor, futurist, systems theorist, and global resilience guru whose life's work focuses on how to ensure the long-term survival and flourishing of the human race.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Another bucky follower  / systems thinker working on wicked problems

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

Watch out, Bucky’s back

Watch out, Bucky’s back | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Conferences are for meeting and learning.  Project teams are for solving problems and building deliverables.   Data analysis is done by senior researchers, trained by their mentors.  Online communities are for socializing. Right? Maybe there's a new mix.  Can we solve difficult problems in a short-term conference setting?  Is there a new way ...

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Watch out, Bucky’s back

 

The latest on the Silicon Valley Sim Center

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

Decision intelligence for data center disaster planning

Decision intelligence for data center disaster planning | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Much of the world's information is handled in data centers: nondescript on the outside, indoors you'll find a din of humming machine in acres of racks.  If an earthquake or other natural disaster should strike a data center, the cost can be enormous. So spending money on risk mitigation strategies like earthquake-proofing makes sense."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

To help you understand what decision intelligence is all about, here's how it can be used in a data center.  Includes an interactive decsion model in the web page.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

Wicked problems, machine learning, and the artistic brain

Wicked problems, machine learning, and the artistic brain | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"What is the future of Silicon Valley technology?  Will it always be about consumer applications, advertising, and media, or will we extend this technology to the “wicked problems”, like poverty, hunger, conflict, and climate change?  In this talk, I provide a taste of how Silicon Valley ingredients like big data and deep learning are beginning to mix with other technologies, such as the systems models of Buckminster Fuller, complex systems analysis, machine learning, and advanced UX.  At the heart of these new solutions is an increasing importance of what we might call the “artistic” brain: visual-spatial and motor skills that haven’t historically played a large part in the solution of complex problems.  Indeed, the ability to reason about complex systems in an immersive, visual, way is the most important literacy of the 21st century.  Gamers know this.  The Silicon Valley Sim Center initiative is making it happen.  Join me to learn how these technologies are crystallizing into new solutions that bridge the gap to solving the important issues of our time, in both the private and public sectors.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Join me in San Jose next Thursday

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

Guest post: The convergence of behavioral economics and big data

Guest post: The convergence of behavioral economics and big data | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
What does cold dead fish have to do with random forests? If you were to open a restaurant that served cold dead fish, you would not stay open for very long. However, if you used the concept of framing and instead sold a delicacy called Sushi, you would have much better chance of staying in…
Lorien Pratt's insight:
Behavioral economics is closely related to DI: it's understanding how to understand and influence behavior
more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

Awakening from the Illusion of Separation

Awakening from the Illusion of Separation | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"There is always a lot of input and output. The input and the output happen in every second, and we should learn how to look at life as streams of being, and not as separate entities. This is a very profound teaching of the Buddha."

Lorien Pratt's insight:
Input and output, streams of being, interdependence...it's nice how principles of decision intelligence reach down and up to other ways of thinking.  In this case it's a Dharma talk by Engaged Buddhist Thich Nhat Hanh.
more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

johnmac's rants: What Will Save Us? - How AI and Cyberspace Contention Will Impact Our Future

johnmac's rants: What Will Save Us? - How AI and Cyberspace Contention Will Impact Our Future | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
"For generations, we have rewarded deep knowledge of individual disciplines, such as chemistry, economics, technology, physics, etc. while not paying the attention necessary to unify these solutions when required to address much larger problems. To do so, you need software that will take complex problems and provide answers that are simple enough for comprehension."
Lorien Pratt's insight:
Nice article by John McMullen, quotes me on reductionism-to-synthesis transition being catalyzed by DI.
more...
No comment yet.
Suggested by Edoardo Binda Zane
Scoop.it!

Effective Decision-Making: How to make better decisions under uncertainty and pressure

Effective Decision-Making: How to make better decisions under uncertainty and pressure (English Edition) eBook: Edoardo Binda Zane: Amazon.de: Kindle-Shop
Lorien Pratt's insight:

It's so exciting to see this new book on effective decision making.  Congratulations Edoardo!

more...
Edoardo Binda Zane's comment, February 25, 11:23 AM
HI Lorien, thanks for all your support!! :-)
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

Lorien Pratt to speak on "Empathy: the core of complex decisions": Tickets now on sale for TEDxLivermore

Lorien Pratt to speak on "Empathy: the core of complex decisions": Tickets now on sale for TEDxLivermore | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Conference theme is "The economics of empathy".  See main web site here: http://www.tedxlivermore.com/tedxlivermore-2016/ , and buy tickets here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/tedxlivermore-2016-tickets-24303286785

Lorien Pratt's insight:

I hope to see you in Livermore in June.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

The hidden intelligence behind Ouija boards

The hidden intelligence behind Ouija boards | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

The ideomotor effect says that people can move or move something without their conscious mind realizing it. In the case of the Ouija board, if you really want the answer to a question to be yes and your partner knows it, you could both push the planchette to “YES” without either of you consciously applying any force. (And if you think you can ever keep your hands completely still, try keeping a laser pointer’s dot perfectly motionless.)"

Lorien Pratt's insight:

More evidence for unconscious rationality: this time it's the "ideomotor effect": you can move things - and even do so in cooperation with others - without the conscious mind realizing it. 

 

When I throw a ball at an audience during a DI talk, and when I say that decision intelligence is meant to train our intuitions to align more effectively in complex situations, this is what I'm talking about. 

 

There's a myth that "conscious == rational" and "unconscious == irrational".  I think that Kahneman and behavioral economics have debunked the former.  And now there's an increasing understanding of the validity of may aspects of the rational unconscious. 

 

Of course, this is what Malcolm Gladwell covered in "Blink".  DI takes the cognitive science insights there and transitions them into practical applications that solve "wicked" problems.

 

In DI we do this using a combination of methods, from systems thinking, to AI, to big data, and the interconnectedness insights of Buckminster Fuller, all on a basis of improved understanding of neuroscience and cognition.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

How researchers identified a heart condition using telephone metadata and search engines alone

How researchers identified a heart condition using telephone metadata and search engines alone | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
A new study finds government surveillance of telephone metadata can easily lead to invasions of privacy.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

This is a cautionary tale for machine learning: by detecting weak signals we can discover way more than what is apparent in a raw data source.  And in this article the researchers found that it didn't even require that level of sophistication to deduce a heart condition, a gun buyer, and a woman planning an abortion: not from the content of a phone call, but from the identity of who was called as well as the timing of those calls (aka metadata /  CDRs for my telecom friends).

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

Artificially Intelligent Lawyer “Ross” Has Been Hired By Its First Official Law Firm

Artificially Intelligent Lawyer “Ross” Has Been Hired By Its First Official Law Firm | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Ross, the world's first artificially intelligent attorney, has its first official law firm. Baker & Hostetler announced that they will be employing Ross for its bankruptcy practice, currently comprised of almost 50 lawyers.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Congrats to my friend Bob, quoted here.   Thing are getting interesting :-)

more...
Sandy Gilchrist's curator insight, May 13, 4:04 AM
Before you know it, judges will also be AI - with intelligent cities, joined-up surveillance and data gathering across the Internet of Things, like cars, CCTV, ATMs, as soon as a crime is committed, it's already detected, analysed, lawyers appointed, case argued, decision, appealed, and conviction all in 23.4 seconds - and you'll find your bank account has been automatically deducted with costs as well as the fine.  Why not... anything's possible, because that's the beauty of technology.  Hmmm.  What if, er, the AI was wrong?  AI is made in our own image.  Sadly, we are not flawless, so AI too will not be flawless, even with machine learning.  We already are worried about how the run-away train of big data has affected our Privacy.  We should not let our imaginations run any more wild in thinking that laws will be created by AI... or should we.  Regardless of the dystopian outlook, there are things that you can do today to ensure your Privacy - using LifeBank to create your own master-file, off the Cloud, because you never know what tomorrow will bring.  Email info@lifebanksystems.com for more details and to place your order... 
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

Fed Up With SXSW And TED? Learn The Art Of World-Changing From The Progenitor, Buckminster Fuller

Fed Up With SXSW And TED? Learn The Art Of World-Changing From The Progenitor, Buckminster Fuller | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Late one evening in the winter of 1927, Buckminster Fuller set out to kill himself in frigid Lake Michigan. At thirty-two years old, he was a failure. He had neither job prospects nor savings, and his wife had just given birth to a daughter. A life insurance policy, bought while he was in the Navy, was all that he had to support his family. So Fuller walked down to a deserted stretch of shoreline on the North Side of Chicago. He looked out over the churning water and calculated how long he'd need to swim before succumbing to hypothermia. But as he prepared to jump, he felt a strange resistance, as if he were being lifted, and he heard a stern voice inside his head: "You do not have the right to eliminate yourself. You do not belong to you. You belong to the universe." Then the voice confided that his life had a purpose, which could be fulfilled only by sharing his mind with the world, and that his family would always be provided for, as long as he submitted to his calling.... Book excerpt from "You Belong to the Universe," by Jonathon Keats.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Yeah, Bucky's back for sure

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

Decision intelligence and empathy: TEDx Livermore

Decision intelligence and empathy: TEDx Livermore | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

http://www.tedxlivermore.com/news/: "This year’s theme, the economics of empathy, is a highly nuanced theme. It is about how we can use empathy to shape our community when our empathies are in conflict. Literally, we can see all sides of an issue and know that there is no solution that leaves everyone with everything they want. But, because we start with empathy as currency, we try to at least get our community as a whole, and individuals, what they need. "

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Mark your calendar: I'll be speaking June 25 at TEDx Livermore.  More soon.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

Necessary, but not sufficient

Necessary, but not sufficient | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"...no one thing alone is enough: not a great idea like Decision Intelligence or a fantastic initiative like the Silicon Valley Sim Center Instead, we catalyze existing movements, nudge and sway, and put in the hard long hours of pitch after pitch.  I like to think of Jodie Foster’s character in this scene from Contact, going to one funding agent after another with her crazy idea (“a nice presentation, doctor”).  But even she was only necessary, not sufficient."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Necessary, but not sufficient: Innovation is freaking hard, and is about way more than technical issues, especially today.  Ideas, and even technology, are no longer the risk points . It's about catalyzing *existing* movements in communities of practice.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

Stop Measuring Value!

Stop Measuring Value! | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"We all know that brushing our teeth twice a day is a productive action needed to get to dental health, which we value. If we attempted to measure what is of value (dental health) we’d be keeping track of the number of cavities we have. We might even get obsessed about more sophisticated measures involving x-rays. But none of these “measures of value” would drive the essential action to brush twice a day. On the other hand, the simple and humble metric of the number of times we have brushed is very productive in getting us to actually brush. Without even requiring a deep understanding of dental health, this metric gets us to dental health because it drives productive action. In simple terms, it drives results."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

One of my favorite new friends from Banff

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

Guesstimate: models for uncertain things

Guesstimate: models for uncertain things | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
A spreadsheet for things that aren't certain
Lorien Pratt's insight:
I wrote a while back that the age of models was ascending as data plateaus.  Guesstimate - currently in beta - offers web-based models that make it easy to visualize uncertainty.  Awesome.
more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

What Happens When the Surveillance State Becomes an Affordable Gadget?

What Happens When the Surveillance State Becomes an Affordable Gadget? | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"The more complex the system becomes, the more vulnerable it is."

Lorien Pratt's insight:
I am seeing dozens of situations that follow this pattern: complexity + automation = insidious and hidden fragility / vulnerability / unintended consequences.  I think that good systems / decision models are essential to solving these issues at the same speed that the bad guys exploit them.
more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

How Data Analytics Impacts Business Decisions

How Data Analytics Impacts Business Decisions | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
"Google Maps does one thing, and does it well: it tells you where to turn when you’re going somewhere. It doesn’t tell you what satellites it’s using, what the wind speed is, and what other cars are doing. It gives you simple information to act on."
Lorien Pratt's insight:
Why we must build simple decision-focused interfaces to sophisticated systems. 
more...
Dané Davis's curator insight, March 5, 7:59 AM
Why we must build simple decision-focused interfaces to sophisticated systems. 
Martin McGaha's curator insight, March 5, 10:08 PM
Why we must build simple decision-focused interfaces to sophisticated systems. 
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
Scoop.it!

The Missing Link of Artificial Intelligence

The Missing Link of Artificial Intelligence | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
We don’t know how to make software that learns without explicit instruction—but we need to if dreams of humanlike AI are to come true.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

A good introduction to supervised versus unsupervised versus reinforcement learning.

more...
No comment yet.