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From Artificial Intelligence to Compassionate Intelligence: Steve Omohundro

Steve Omohundro interviewed at the Royal Botanical Gardens in Melbourne Australia. He speaks about artificial intelligence and compassionate technology - app...
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Underneath Decision intelligence are a lot of cutting-edge technologies: big data, machine learning, deep learning, quantum computing, and more, which are also part of a re-emergence of AI.  But what are the greater implications of this increasingly powerful technology?  I lost track of Steve Omohundro a few years back and was delighted to make his re-acquaintance through this video, which covers "compassionate intelligence" (including the work of Marshall Rosenberg, who is one of the great ones imho), balancing multiple outcomes, avoiding unintended consequences, animal intelligence, and more.  A real treat, and worth a watch.


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Decision Intelligence
Decision intelligence is a framework to apply an interdisciplinary set of technologies to solve the world's most complex problems in an increasingly nonlinear and rapidly changing world. Technology includes predictive intelligence, visual decision modeling, complex systems modeling, big data, predictive analytics, machine learning. UX design, statistical analysis, business intelligence, business process management, causal reasoning, evidence-based analysis, and more. For an overview, see the webinar at http://youtu.be/XRTJt3bVCaEand more videos at http://www.youtube.com/quantellia. Many of these topics are vigorously discussed in the LinkedIn group Effective Decision Making in the Midst of Complexity: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=205078.  Also see http://www.quantellia.com
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Always wanted to learn Decision Intelligence? Start right now.

These four videos are a good way to get started with decision intelligence:



Lorien Pratt's insight:

Everyone who cares about how to understand the complex problems in our world, and who wants to make a difference, should watch these videos. 

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Ready for Cyber Analytics? - GovExec.com

Ready for Cyber Analytics? - GovExec.com | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
GovExec.com
Ready for Cyber Analytics? GovExec.com The Department of Defense is shifting the cyber defense paradigm from a strategy characterized by static, labor intensive risk assessments to a more dynamic posture relying on big data analytics to...
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Machine Learning's on its way back

Machine Learning's on its way back | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Check out these graphs I created today.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Out of curiosity, I ran this Google Trends report today.  If you're not familiar with Google Trends, it tracks phrases used in searches over the years.  It's an interesting - if imperfect - barometer of global interest in certain topics.

 

Some interesting findings from this graph:

  • Machine Learning is on its way back
  • Neural Networks have been dropping in popularity, and have crossed below machine learning in 2012
  • Although interest in Data Science and Data Scientists is growing, it is still much smaller than interest in Machine Learning.
  • These topics are most popular in India, followed by South Korea, Singapore, Iran, Hong Kong, China, and Taiwan.  The US is not on the top 7 list of countries.
  • If we sort by city, the most interest is in Pittsburgh (CMU friends: care to comment?), followed by Cambridge, Bangalore, San Jose, Beijing, Chennai, and Hyderabad.
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A Journey Through Uncertainty, To Better Outcomes

A Journey Through Uncertainty, To Better Outcomes | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"I was at a conference this past week, with government leaders at the state and municipal levels from the state of Maryland in the U.S.  Again and again I met and heard from people who continue to act and lead from the belief that all of their problems have solutions that can be managed, controlled, and predicted."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

This is a really great Decision Intelligence blog post, by a guy who hasn't heard of it (yet :) ) but understands many of the key principals.  My summary:

- Waltuk attends a conference where Lean Improvement people are working to map their systems (good) but using Vizio (not state of the art: need World Modeler)

- Waltuk has been asking these important questions for years of the Lean movement ,without an answer (my paraphrase):

1. How do you systematize collaborative, continuous, generative dialogue?

2. How can you detect activities that do not impact goals?

- Evidence-based management and big data also lack these answers

- None of them have a good approach to complex systems management

- "Management by objectives" initiatives often drive an unintended consequence: short-cuts to achieve the goals that end up creating negative outcomes that were not part of the original model (this is the *spoofing* unintended consequence pattern, see http://www.scoop.it/t/uconsq )

- Part of the problem is a "Newtonian worldview" that doesn't allow for typically complex causal relationships.  He's got this exactly right.






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Random things make beautiful patterns when they are bumped around in systematic ways

Random things make beautiful patterns when they are bumped around in systematic ways | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

This video shows salt scattered on a surface, which is made to vibrate at different frequencies.  The salt creates beautiful different patterns depending on the frequency.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

If a) we live inside systems that have structure (economic, cultural, political, etc.) and b) these systems are subjected to noise, then c) this video shows how systems create emergent patterns.  So d) if we can learn to model that emergence, we can e) do a much better job of achieving the goals that we want and avoiding unintended consequences.


h/t @Linda Larson Kemp

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Self-Service Decision Intelligence: a path to FREEDOM OF CHOICE?

Self-Service Decision Intelligence: a path to FREEDOM OF CHOICE? | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

The question of the headline is in fact composed of the following down-to-earth questions: Can self-service decision intelligence (SSDI) lead to freedom of choice for the decision-maker? Can she, i...

Lorien Pratt's insight:

What it means for a Decision Intelligence (DI) system to qualify as Self Service Decision Intelligence (SSDI).  Includes an example of a decision model implemented in Analytica.

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Where to start if you'd like to learn about systems, whether you're five or fifty

Where to start if you'd like to learn about systems, whether you're five or fifty | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Here’s the good news: you already think about systems. And you have some good intuitions about them. For instance, when someone says “we’re on a roll!” (an indicator of reinforcing feedback at work), you know there will likely be some built-in limit that ends the growth (that’s a systems pattern known as limits to growth). And you also get it when someone says, in reference to a family or a high performing team, that “1 + 1 = 3” or “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts” (that's the concept of emergence).

Lorien Pratt's insight:

This looks like a terrific resource: lots of books, articles, training, resources to learn about systems: from complexity to clarity.

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Guess what? Data's irrelevant when the future is different than the past.

Guess what?  Data's irrelevant when the future is different than the past. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

“One of the key reasons that successful organizations and individuals eventually fail is that they assume their future is an extension of their past.”

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Good to keep this in mind in a world filled with data.

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You think you've got data blindness now... just wait until your data starts to get old.

You think you've got data blindness now... just wait until your data starts to get old. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"...if collected within the current infrastructure at most companies, the data deluge is more likely to make an enterprise slower, less responsive and – in the long term – less 'intelligent'.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Here's my YouTube on the data deluge.  It's a big deal: http://youtu.be/dPEhq4Mpw24 .

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Worst business decisions are frequently the result of unintended consequences.

Worst business decisions are frequently the result of unintended consequences. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Q: What was the worst business decision ever made?
Lorien Pratt's insight:

I hadn't realized this!  Bad decisions often come from unintended consequences, and most of those can be seen as arising from a lack of ability to see the entire system.  Ergo: solve them through better systems thinking.


We seem to be suffering from an epidemic of hindsight, judging the situation by the data, not the system.  It's like trying to predict where the elephant will walk based on  her footprints (or maybe something else she leaves behind) rather than actually understanding elephants themselves.


Many of the bad decisions in this article can be seen a consequence of this lack of deep systems knowledge / systems navigational ability: the firing of Steve Jobs, Bank of America's purchase of Countrywide Financial, Fed moves that led to the Great Depression, and many more.


Wow.  Hadn't realized.  Let's fix this together, OK, friends???!!

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, July 24, 1:53 PM

I hadn't realized this!  Bad decisions often come from unintended consequences, and most of those can be seen as arising from a lack of ability to see the entire system.  Ergo: solve them through better systems thinking.


We seem to be suffering from an epidemic of hindsight, judging the situation by the data, not the system.  It's like trying to predict where the elephant will walk based on  her footprints (or maybe something else she leaves behind) rather than actually understanding elephants themselves.


Many of the bad decisions in this articlecan be seen a consequence of this lack of deep systems knowledge / systems navigational ability: the firing of Steve Jobs, Bank of America's purchase of Countrywide Financial, Fed moves that led to the Great Depression, and many more.


Wow.  Hadn't realized.  Let's fix this together, OK, friends???!!

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Change one thing. Change everything.

Change one thing.  Change everything. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

As human beings, we cannot change the past. We have control only of our individual destiny and the decisions that we make today. The tagline for the movie The Butterfly Effect is, “Change one thing, Change everything.”

Lorien Pratt's insight:

An analysis through the lens of unintended consequences of the situation with the U.S. border children.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, July 22, 12:54 PM

An analysis of the situation with the U.S. border children through the lens of unintended consequences.

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Mental Model: Complex Adaptive Systems

Mental Model: Complex Adaptive Systems | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Let's explore the concept of complex adaptive systems.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Probably the clearest explanation I've read of the distinction between complicated, complex, and adaptive.  Well worth a read

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The wicked problems of the world share something in common

The wicked problems of the world share something in common | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

As many of my colleagues and online acquaintances may know, my professional work has largely been grounded in the application of systems theory, to analyze and solve problems calling for a systems approach"

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Barry's discovered what I call a "systems pattern":


"As I assay it, the ten most intractable plagues of western civilization are conflict, violence, oppression, injustice, corruption, poverty, ignorance, alienation, suffering, and terrorism.


All ten of these hellish problems have something in common. Like cancer, they tend to reseed themselves, round-robin, from one instance to the next, in a never-ending cycle of recursion.


Systemic problems call for a systems approach to problem-solving. But that’s not going to happen until we elevate our collective problem-solving skills to near-genius levels."

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Unintended Consequences of Obama’s ISIS Plan - Foreign Policy Journal

Unintended Consequences of Obama’s ISIS Plan - Foreign Policy Journal | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
This is not the first intervention in the history of U.S. involvement in the Middle East that has resulted in unintended consequences.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Action: US begins bombing ISIS in Iraq and Syria

Intended consequence: Reducing ISIS' influence

Unintended consequences:

- this author says that blowback from civilian collateral damage will incentivize ISIS to attack the U.S.

- Aleppo-based al-Monitor correspondent, Edward Dark says that US attacks would stoke anti-Western resentment, and that ISIS is "secretly overjoyed" at the attacks for this reason.

- "Syria and Iraq as we know them...will disappear"


Analysis:

This is an incredibly complex situation, with wheels within wheels.  Every consequence, intended and otherwise, should be considered, including these. 


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Great list of resources: data science, visualization, machine learning, big data

Great list of resources: data science, visualization, machine learning, big data | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Fantastic resource created by Andrea Motosi. I've only included the 5 categories that are the most relevant to our audience, though it has 31 categories total,…
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In 5 Years, We Could All Have 'Digital Twins' That Make Decisions For Us

In 5 Years, We Could All Have 'Digital Twins' That Make Decisions For Us | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
They'll hold conversations with us and mimic human emotions.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

An interesting aspirational article including an interview with John Smart.  I believe, as the article says (in part) that we'll use digital assistants for decision making long before we hand over decisions in their entirety.  This is the logical next layer on top of social networks, as we move from text (like this) to interactive complex systems Decision Intelligence models that allow us to build, visualize, track, and keep our models up-to-date. 

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Chris Whitside's curator insight, September 23, 9:08 AM

You mean I would actually have to think about and declare my intentions ... at least to myself? 

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Why the usual macro models fail in crises

Why the usual macro models fail in crises | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Many central banks rely on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models – known as DSGEs to cognoscenti. This column – which is more technical than most Vox columns – argues that the models’ mathematical basis fails when crises shift the underlying distributions of shocks. Specifically, the linchpin ‘law of iterated expectations’ fails, so economic analyses involving conditional expectations and inter-temporal derivations also fail. Like a fire station that automatically burns down whenever a big fire starts, DSGEs become unreliable when they are most needed.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, September 10, 5:02 PM

A good analysis at moderate depth showing the essential mathematical reasons why the usual way that economics is done - called dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) modeling - is not able to handle deep shifts in the underlying situation.  In contrast, most macro economic models make certain assumptions that are only valid absent a fundamental shift in the underlying system.  So just as that shift is occurring, these models begin to fail.  Yet another reason we need good systems / causal models. 

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Facts don't matter.

Facts don't matter. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Say goodnight to the dream that education, journalism, scientific evidence, or reason can provide the tools that people need in order to make good decisions.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

The study described here is to me one of the most compelling reasons that we need decision intelligence. Think about it: if we didn't have ways to overcome our biases / tendency to overlook certain facts when designing bridges or airplanes, they'd fall down.  It's no surprise that we are also biased and blind in certain ways when it comes to making decisions in a complex environment, especially when they're emotionally and tribally charged as political decisions often are. So of course we need mechanisms (visualization, collaboration, QA, and more) to help here as well.

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Decision Fail No More

Decision Fail No More | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Big decisions sometimes lead to big failures. Why? Our examination of the 3 Signs of Decision Doom will give you perspectives and actions you can take right away to increase the decision success rate in your team or organization

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Looks like a good one

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From divisions and walls to integration and webs

From divisions and walls to integration and webs | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Lorien Pratt's insight:

I had no idea that there was so much literature around systems thinking, especially for children.  This article has a good overview of the genre, plus a list of resources.  Time to connect the dots, I think, from complex systems analysis to decision analysis to Forrester to "Bucky" to the analytics work here in Silicon Valley.  Emergence is...emerging :-)

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A revolution in aquifer data

"Wonder where your water comes from?"

Lorien Pratt's insight:

I don't usually post data-only stuff here (because data overload) but this one was too important/awesome to pass up.  It's a magnetometer hanging from a helicopter that produces 3D aquifer maps: a huge improvement (cost, resolution) over drilling giant cores and analyzing the dirt.  Great PBS video. 


Now we need to use this data to drive great decisions about water usage, worldwide (sorry, couldn't resist).

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Open source intelligence analysis using citizen journalists uncovers critical MH17 information

Open source intelligence analysis using citizen journalists uncovers critical MH17 information | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
The citizen journalist known as Brown Moses, with the help of his Twitter followers, was able to pinpoint the location of a Buk launcher while it was being transported through a pro-Russian rebel-held town in Ukraine, using only open source information like Google searches and YouTube videos.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

National intelligence is a good application area for decision intelligence.  And the combination of citizen journalists and open source information has the potential to tremendously expand the capacity for this analysis.

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Decision Making in a Complex and Uncertain World

Decision Making in a Complex and Uncertain World | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
This course will teach you the first principles of complexity, uncertainty and how to make decisions in a complex world.

Via Jorge Louçã, NESS
Lorien Pratt's insight:

This course looks awesome!  I've signed up. See you there?

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Tree roots form a sort of "neural network" with one another, in an antifragile complex adaptive system

Tree roots form a sort of "neural network" with one another, in an antifragile complex adaptive system | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"In this real-life model of forest resilience and regeneration, Professor Suzanne Simard shows that all trees in a forest ecosystem are interconnected, with the largest, oldest, "mother trees" serving as hubs. The underground exchange of nutrients increases the survival of younger trees linked into the network of old trees. Amazingly, we find that in a forest, 1+1 equals more than 2"

Lorien Pratt's insight:

This blows me away; I had no idea about these interconnected, synapse-like links from one tree to the next. 

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Flora Moon's curator insight, August 20, 8:51 AM

I was just thinking about anti-fragile systems,  great example, thanks!

Kathy Mays's curator insight, August 26, 3:58 AM

Consider Jung's concept of the collective unconscious while looking at this.

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Collaborate.org: Global platform for GIS, collaboration, videos, and more

Collaborate.org: Global platform for GIS, collaboration, videos, and more | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Lorien Pratt's insight:

This looks like a good platform on which to build Decision Intelligence: combining collaboration, GIS, videos, and more.

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