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Complexity science meets bottom-up development

Complexity science meets bottom-up development | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Systems models may offer realistic solutions for development, a workshop hears. But what about the building blocks?
Lorien Pratt's insight:

More "Systevism".  I intend to buy this book, right now.

"The last thing I expected to hear at this week’s workshop in London, United Kingdom, on complexity science was that this is an approach that can lead to realistic solutions to development challenges from the bottom up. But it is one of the messages that came through from freelance science writer Philip Ball, as well as Ben Ramalingam, author of the widely acclaimed book Aid on the Edge of Chaos, which draws on complexity research to argue for its role in rethinking development aid."

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Decision Intelligence
Decision intelligence is an interdisciplinary field with a mission to solve the world's most complex problems in an increasingly nonlinear and rapidly changing world. It is based on the premise that "the decision" is the atomic unit of complex problem-solving, along with the observation that a decision requires predicting the future outcome of an action in an uncertain world. Decision intelligence draws upon  technology such as visual decision modeling, complex systems modeling, big data, predictive analytics, machine learning. UX design, statistical analysis, business intelligence, business process management, causal reasoning, evidence-based analysis, and more. For an overview, see the webinar at http://youtu.be/XRTJt3bVCaEand more videos at http://www.youtube.com/quantellia. Many of these topics are vigorously discussed in the LinkedIn group Effective Decision Making in the Midst of Complexity: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=205078.  Also see http://www.tdi3.org, http://www.quantellia.com, http://www.absolutdata.com/, and http://www.informeddecisions.se/
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Always wanted to learn Decision Intelligence? Start right now.

Here's a nine-part video introduction to Decision Intelligence. 



Lorien Pratt's insight:

A video tutorial series to learn decision intelligence

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There are two kinds of software: It’s time to take world modeling seriously

There are two kinds of software: It’s time to take world modeling seriously | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
It's time to get serious about world modeling.  Here's why: There are two kinds of software in the world. (1) Tools (like Microsoft word) and (2) software that depends on a model of the world as its core capability Examples of the second category are...
Lorien Pratt's insight:

This crystallized for me earlier today.  I hope you find it useful.

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Teaching Your Kid to Read (or to navigate a complex world)? Let Her Play Minecraft 

Teaching Your Kid to Read (or to navigate a complex world)? Let Her Play Minecraft  | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Successful games steer players through their complex systems incrementally, in a sort of feedback loop between player and game that’s as fun as it is difficult, encouraging success and growth instead of defeat.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

I've been reading about the Quest to Learn school for years, and they seem to have a great handle on how to use modern computer technology to teach critical thinking, complex system understanding, and more.  Yet another great development from this world-class institution.

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Quick Study: Modeling a basic decision in World Modeler

Quick Study: Modeling a basic decision in World Modeler | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Hello and welcome to World Modeler! 
Quick Study 1 includes a step-by-step guide to the basics of model building, including time-based simulation.  You can download the PDF document, then use it t...
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Please enjoy this step-by-step video, the first in a series of World Modeler tutorials.

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Why Decision Intelligence?

Why Decision Intelligence? | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Lorien Pratt's insight:

The greatest challenges facing humanity in the 21st century require that we do a better job of integrating people, processes, and technology. Whether we’re talking about how to distribute medicine and doctors to solve a health epidemic, or looking to reduce supply chain risk in a complex multinational organization, we must use computers, data, and our own judgment in unprecedented ways.


The good news is that there’s a simple way to think about how we can work together with data and other experts in complex situations.

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Calipus Software's curator insight, February 20, 2:14 PM

Software Development Company India
http://www.calipus.com

luc taesch's curator insight, February 21, 4:52 AM

DI/DQ concept seems to propagate ... great ! #antifragile #design #agile

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Announcing the beta release of World Modeler(tm) 7.3.0: Try Decision Intelligence for free!

Announcing the beta release of World Modeler(tm) 7.3.0: Try Decision Intelligence for free! | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Try World Modeler for free

Lorien Pratt's insight:

I'm delighted to announce the beta release of World Modeler 7.3.0.   This is our professional desktop edition.   Try it for free from this page. 

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Data from the future

Sally's got a tough decision to make. She's overwhelmed with charts and graphs and spreadsheets. But they don't answer the question: "If I make this decision today, given this data, what will happen?". See how she solves the problem.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

A good quick summary about what's different about decision intelligence: systems models and cause-and-effect give us "Data from the future."

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Non-Equilibrium social science: Feedbacks, Fragility and Failure

Non-Equilibrium social science: Feedbacks, Fragility and Failure | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

NESS organised a policy-oriented conference in London on October 2014, where there were discussed practical implications of policy making.

Videos from the conference are now available at NESS:

* Charles Bean, Former Deputy Governor, Bank of England, discussed Macro-prudential Regulation http://www.nessnet.eu/2015/01/19/charlie-bean-at-the-ness-policy-conference-macro-prudential-regulation/
* David Tuckett, Director of the Centre for the Study of Decision-Making Uncertainty Psychoanalysis, University College London, discussed Psychological Foundations of Macro-prudential policy http://www.nessnet.eu/2015/01/19/david-tuckett-at-the-ness-policy-conference-psychological-foundations-of-macro-prudential-policy/
* Mike Batty, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA) at University College London, discussed infrastructure, decision-making and cities http://www.nessnet.eu/2015/01/19/mike-batty-at-the-ness-policy-conference-cities-are-far-from-equilibrium/
* Paul Ormerod, Volterra Partners LLP, London, discussed how are decisions made http://www.nessnet.eu/2015/01/19/paul-ormerod-at-the-ness-policy-conference-how-are-decisions-made/
* Bridget Rosewell, Volterra Partners LLP, London, discussed transport infrastructures and economics http://www.nessnet.eu/2015/01/18/bridget-rosewell-at-the-ness-policy-conference-transport-infrastructures-and-economics/
* Greg Fisher, Chief Executive of Synthesis, discussed uncertainty and policy making http://www.nessnet.eu/2015/01/18/greg-fisher-at-the-ness-policy-conference-uncertainty-and-policy-making/


Via NESS
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Non-equilibrium social sciences model the dynamic nature of things: systems in motion instead of the simplifying assumption of traditional modeling where we only consider equilibrium states.  Non-equilibrium modeling applies to decision making, transportation, economics, policy-making, and more. 

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The thinker's toolbox, updated for the 21st century: van Gelder and Monk

The thinker's toolbox, updated for the 21st century: van Gelder and Monk | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
We help organisations think more effectively about almost anything by bringing to bear our unique range of methods, tools and insights, and drawing on our extensive experience.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

With deep expertise in argument mapping as well as offerings in critical thinking, process analysis, wicked problem solving, and more, vG&M is an important company in the decision intelligence space.  Worth a look.

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Econometric model for OMEGA: how can #algae systems be profitable? #eaba #decint

Econometric model for OMEGA: how can #algae systems be profitable? #eaba #decint | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Slide from Jonathan Trent's talk at #eaba

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Quantellia built this decision intelligence model to support econometric analysis of an integrated water / food / solar / biofuels system.  Thanks to Informed Decisions for sponsoring this important work!

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Cause And Effect: The Revolutionary New Statistical Test That Can Tease Them Apart

Cause And Effect: The Revolutionary New Statistical Test That Can Tease Them Apart - The Physics arXiv Blog - Medium
Statisticians have always thought it impossible to tell cause and effect apart using observational data. Not any more.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

In the face of overwhelming spurious correlations from really big data sources, this could be very important.

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Stop googling Prince if you want to lose weight #decisionengineering #decint #prince #bigdata @ichartny

Stop googling Prince if you want to lose weight #decisionengineering #decint #prince #bigdata @ichartny | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
VIDEO: Mathematically sound but instinctively insane.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

The core building block of Decision Intelligence is the cause-and-effect link, preferably supported by good data.  But without a good understanding of the underlying system, things can go a little nutty. Thanks to Sara Silverstein!

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Landmark study: the new art and science of decision making

Landmark study: the new art and science of decision making | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Businesses make thousands of routine decisions a day. But what happens when the time comes for a business to shift course and how can data and analytics help? Explore our survey findings to learn more.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

PWC is rapidly becoming one of the world's decision intelligence thought leaders, and arguably the most influential of us all.  If you read one report this year, Dan DeFilippo and Paul Blase's "Gut and gigabytes" should be it. 


This report is based on interviews with 1,135 senior executives, over half of which (54%) are C-level executives or board members. Some excerpts:


  • "Nearly 1 in 3 executives value [big] decisions at least at $1 billion:
  • "...this is the time for the C-suite to upgrade the art as well as the science behind their decision making"
  • "using data to test different scenarios before making a decision is becoming increasingly common"
  • Most "big decisions" are made between every month and every 3 months.
  • "Defensive" decision making : overly cautious decisions that no one will get into trouble for making, are common, accounting for between one-third and one-half of all decisions


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7 Pricing Mistakes To Avoid: Data-Based Insights from Salesforce, Uber and Kraft

7 Pricing Mistakes To Avoid: Data-Based Insights from Salesforce, Uber and Kraft | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
“Pricing is one of those things that till you go and make the change you don’t know what will happen. You go in with a lot more confidence if you have data,” says Anil Kaul, the founder and CEO of Absolutdata, a San Francisco-based firm with offices in Singapore, the Middle East, India, and the United Kingdom. Founded in 2001, Absolutdata now has more than 450 employees.
The company, which has a $20 million investment from Fidelity, specializes in what it calls “decision engineering.” This is the discipline of applying data to your decision-making process in a structured fashion. Among other things, the company provides pricing scenarios based on analytics.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Congratulations to my new friend Anil Kaul and Absolutdata for this great article about decision engineering in pricing decision making in Forbes!

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What is a decision engineer?

What is a decision engineer? | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Engineers know how to exercise judgment when data is not available. (Early in my engineering career I was told that, “Engineering is the art of approximation.”) Decision engineers know how to help other people assign probabilities to uncertain events and overcome cognitive biases.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

An absolutely top-notch article from one of the world's first and best Decision Engineers, Steve Barrager.  Talk to this man, he really knows his stuff.

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The "secret sauce" at the center of complex decisions is in cause-and-effect links. Here's how to make them rock.

The "secret sauce" at the center of complex decisions is in cause-and-effect links.  Here's how to make them rock. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"...with a decision model, we can see how machine learning, AHP, and machine learning fit into an overall picture of how to make decisions more rigorous, transparent, and agile."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Cause-and-effect links live at the heart of complex systems.  And understanding them means we can go beyond historical data to understand situations we haven't faced before, using piecewise causal links from the past to inform new situations.  This is incredible, because it breaks us from the tyranny of using only historical data in data science, machine learning, AI, and more..    Here's how three previously separate approaches can be used to help us get the links right.

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Who is your Company's Chief Decision Officer?

Who is your Company's Chief Decision Officer? | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Lorien Pratt is co-founder and chief scientist of Mountain View-based Quantellia, which offers data, analytics, and decision intelligence software and services worldwide. Pratt previously served as global director of telecommunications research for Stratecast (a division of Frost & Sullivan) and also worked at Bellcore and IBM. A graduate of Dartmouth College and Rutgers University, she... Read more »
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Join me in the spring in Raleigh.  This will be a great conference!

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Grok: Lorien Pratt new blog on decision intelligence, complex systems, and more. Free Decision Engineering eBook for subscribers.

Grok: Lorien Pratt new blog on decision intelligence, complex systems, and more. Free Decision Engineering eBook for subscribers. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

This blog is for those interested in what's next, past big data and analytics: I'll cover decision intelligence, decision engineering, and related topics like machine learning, analytics, big data, and more. 

Lorien Pratt's insight:

I'd love to have you as a subscriber, and if you choose to join, I'll send you my Decision Engineering primer eBook for free right away.


Join me!

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Absolutdata Introduces First 'Decision Engineering' Product

Absolutdata Introduces First 'Decision Engineering' Product | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

The first 'Decision Engineering' product from Absolutdata, NAVIK Converter identifies users who are primed for conversion and recommends how and when to target them with marketing messages and/or product changes.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Congratulations to Absolutdata for its first Decision Engineering product!    Truly a milestone.

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Decisions based on copying others + huge network effects = nonlinear emergent decision dynamics. Even Keynes knew it.

Decisions based on copying others + huge network effects = nonlinear emergent decision dynamics. Even Keynes knew it. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Paul Ormerod, from Volterra Partners (London), discussed how are decisions made, at the NESS Policy-Oriented Conference in London, October 2014.Source: www.youtube.comSee on Scoop.it - Non-Equilibr...
Lorien Pratt's insight:

What a terrific talk by Paul Ormerod at the NESS conference last October.  Check out this image from the talk: even Keynes knew that, when the future was not like the past, we tended to fall back on conventional wisdom.  The only solution imho, is an explicit systems model of the future, so that we get away from superficial copycat modeling, which gets us into trouble again and again.  Please check out a free evaluation copy of World Modeler (http://www.quantellia.com); in honor of Omerod's work, I've told our support staff to triple the usual evaluation period for any economists interested in giving it a spin, who signs up by 1/26.

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What’s next after Big Data? It’s Decision Engineering

What’s next after Big Data? It’s Decision Engineering | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
To take power out of Big Data and use it to make better engineered business decisions will be the next big thing in 2015…And there will be plenty of high paying jobs too!! Big Data is currently at the peak of the hype cycle. A lot is being talked, written, researched and reported around it. …
Lorien Pratt's insight:

An excellent short article from the IndiaTimes people about Decision Engineering (aka Decision Intelligence). 

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Following the money trail using unstructured data for document analysis

Following the money trail using unstructured data for document analysis | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Big data analysis is great if your information is in formats that are easy for computers to read, such as spreadsheets with numbers, or responses on a scale from one to five. But a lot of information isn't organized like that. Instead, it's in presentations, memos, reports, comments or just plain e-mail. Analysis of that kind of information -- often called "unstructured" or "dark" data -- is really tough to do by computer

Lorien Pratt's insight:

A good quick read on new technology for unstructured data analysis, including case study about following ARRA money

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Causality Workbench

Causality Workbench | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Datasets for challenges on causality
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Challenges every year to discover causation in data.

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Data science without statistics is possible, even desirable

Data science without statistics is possible, even desirable | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
The purpose of this article is to clarify a few misconceptions about data and statistical science.
I will start with a controversial statement: data science ba…
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Very important to read.  There's a lot of confusion around statistical learning, traditional statistics, data science.  This article is part of the untangling.

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▶ Is it better to rent or buy a home? Crunching the numbers using DI.

The decision as to whether to rent or buy a house used to be straightforward: homes appreciated in value, and renting was a "black hole". But in many world e...
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Here's a Decision Intelligence analysis of this important question.  I hope you find it valuable.

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Participate in a brief survey studying what matters the most in decision making #decint @tedmarra

Participate in a brief survey studying what matters the most in decision making #decint @tedmarra | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"The purpose with this study is to get an understanding of what the respondents perceive as challenges around decision making and /or consequences of decisions (both good or bad). "

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Looks like an interesting global survey.  Looking forward to hearing the results!

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