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How Does Stress Affect the Decision Making Process?

How Does Stress Affect the Decision Making Process? | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
A guest post by Ryan Rivera who suffered from panic attacks for seven years. Although it is a premise that is quite obvious, stress has been proven to have far-reaching impact in the decision making process.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

"Studies show that cognitive stress, such as distractions, affects rational decision making. People experiencing stress are likely to choose the positive side of choices given to them."

Read more: http://www.weighteddecision.com/how-does-stress-affect-the-decision-making-process/#ixzz2tBdNqata

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Decision Intelligence
Decision intelligence is a framework to apply an interdisciplinary set of technologies to solve the world's most complex problems in an increasingly nonlinear and rapidly changing world. Technology includes predictive intelligence, visual decision modeling, complex systems modeling, big data, predictive analytics, machine learning. UX design, statistical analysis, business intelligence, business process management, causal reasoning, evidence-based analysis, and more. For an overview, see the webinar at http://youtu.be/XRTJt3bVCaEand more videos at http://www.youtube.com/quantellia. Many of these topics are vigorously discussed in the LinkedIn group Effective Decision Making in the Midst of Complexity: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=205078.  Also see http://www.quantellia.com
Curated by Lorien Pratt
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Always wanted to learn Decision Intelligence? Start right now.

These four videos are a good way to get started with decision intelligence:



Lorien Pratt's insight:

Everyone who cares about how to understand the complex problems in our world, and who wants to make a difference, should watch these videos. 

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Why the usual macro models fail in crises

Why the usual macro models fail in crises | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Many central banks rely on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models – known as DSGEs to cognoscenti. This column – which is more technical than most Vox columns – argues that the models’ mathematical basis fails when crises shift the underlying distributions of shocks. Specifically, the linchpin ‘law of iterated expectations’ fails, so economic analyses involving conditional expectations and inter-temporal derivations also fail. Like a fire station that automatically burns down whenever a big fire starts, DSGEs become unreliable when they are most needed.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, September 10, 5:02 PM

A good analysis at moderate depth showing the essential mathematical reasons why the usual way that economics is done - called dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) modeling - is not able to handle deep shifts in the underlying situation.  In contrast, most macro economic models make certain assumptions that are only valid absent a fundamental shift in the underlying system.  So just as that shift is occurring, these models begin to fail.  Yet another reason we need good systems / causal models. 

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Facts don't matter.

Facts don't matter. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Say goodnight to the dream that education, journalism, scientific evidence, or reason can provide the tools that people need in order to make good decisions.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

The study described here is to me one of the most compelling reasons that we need decision intelligence. Think about it: if we didn't have ways to overcome our biases / tendency to overlook certain facts when designing bridges or airplanes, they'd fall down.  It's no surprise that we are also biased and blind in certain ways when it comes to making decisions in a complex environment, especially when they're emotionally and tribally charged as political decisions often are. So of course we need mechanisms (visualization, collaboration, QA, and more) to help here as well.

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Decision Fail No More

Decision Fail No More | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Big decisions sometimes lead to big failures. Why? Our examination of the 3 Signs of Decision Doom will give you perspectives and actions you can take right away to increase the decision success rate in your team or organization

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Looks like a good one

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From divisions and walls to integration and webs

From divisions and walls to integration and webs | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Lorien Pratt's insight:

I had no idea that there was so much literature around systems thinking, especially for children.  This article has a good overview of the genre, plus a list of resources.  Time to connect the dots, I think, from complex systems analysis to decision analysis to Forrester to "Bucky" to the analytics work here in Silicon Valley.  Emergence is...emerging :-)

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A revolution in aquifer data

"Wonder where your water comes from?"

Lorien Pratt's insight:

I don't usually post data-only stuff here (because data overload) but this one was too important/awesome to pass up.  It's a magnetometer hanging from a helicopter that produces 3D aquifer maps: a huge improvement (cost, resolution) over drilling giant cores and analyzing the dirt.  Great PBS video. 


Now we need to use this data to drive great decisions about water usage, worldwide (sorry, couldn't resist).

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Open source intelligence analysis using citizen journalists uncovers critical MH17 information

Open source intelligence analysis using citizen journalists uncovers critical MH17 information | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
The citizen journalist known as Brown Moses, with the help of his Twitter followers, was able to pinpoint the location of a Buk launcher while it was being transported through a pro-Russian rebel-held town in Ukraine, using only open source information like Google searches and YouTube videos.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

National intelligence is a good application area for decision intelligence.  And the combination of citizen journalists and open source information has the potential to tremendously expand the capacity for this analysis.

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Decision Making in a Complex and Uncertain World

Decision Making in a Complex and Uncertain World | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
This course will teach you the first principles of complexity, uncertainty and how to make decisions in a complex world.

Via Jorge Louçã, NESS
Lorien Pratt's insight:

This course looks awesome!  I've signed up. See you there?

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Tree roots form a sort of "neural network" with one another, in an antifragile complex adaptive system

Tree roots form a sort of "neural network" with one another, in an antifragile complex adaptive system | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"In this real-life model of forest resilience and regeneration, Professor Suzanne Simard shows that all trees in a forest ecosystem are interconnected, with the largest, oldest, "mother trees" serving as hubs. The underground exchange of nutrients increases the survival of younger trees linked into the network of old trees. Amazingly, we find that in a forest, 1+1 equals more than 2"

Lorien Pratt's insight:

This blows me away; I had no idea about these interconnected, synapse-like links from one tree to the next. 

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Flora Moon's curator insight, August 20, 8:51 AM

I was just thinking about anti-fragile systems,  great example, thanks!

Kathy Mays's curator insight, August 26, 3:58 AM

Consider Jung's concept of the collective unconscious while looking at this.

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Collaborate.org: Global platform for GIS, collaboration, videos, and more

Collaborate.org: Global platform for GIS, collaboration, videos, and more | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Lorien Pratt's insight:

This looks like a good platform on which to build Decision Intelligence: combining collaboration, GIS, videos, and more.

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Size doesn't matter: can SMEs conquer Big Data?

Size doesn't matter: can SMEs conquer Big Data? | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Big Data involves collecting a large volume of information. As SMEs don't have access to the same amount of data as larger corporations, does it mean SMEs can't make use of Big Data? Here is a case study with Ovolo Hotels.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Yes!  Or maybe I should say "duh" :-)  Good job Julien.  "Ovolo Hotels takes a different path: only questions with a purpose are used. If the answer to a question cannot impact the business directly, the question shall not be asked."

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Patterns for Systemic Change: Commons Abundance Network

Patterns for Systemic Change: Commons Abundance Network | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Details of: Exploring how to embed into the system the code for its renewal. Fostering factors of opportunity and renewal as commons. Leveraging agency and empowering change agents in their own contexts across the board.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

This looks pretty interesting.  The idea of a community-based approach to implementing systematic change is relatively new to me; this group looks pretty informed on some of the complex systems dynamics.  I'll join, and read,and see what it's about.

 

Some bits that are particularly tantalizing:

"Our System is stuck in self-reinforcing feedback loops...the interactions between the multiple human and natural systems that make up our world, and the flows and accumulations they generate."

 

"We end up with resources attracted, captured and extracted by a few 'winners', cumulating advantage (opportunity, success, power, credit, capital) in a reinforcing feedback loop, dedicated to reinforce the mechanisms that maintain the status quo..."

 

"We need to embed the reproduction of distributed factors of opportunity & renewal in the code of the system at all levels and scales for the system to become generative rather than extractive."

 

I bet World Modeler could help.  I'd appreciate an introduction if anyone here knows folks in this group.

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Ignorance Is Bliss: Study Shows People Avoid Information About Complex Social Issues

Ignorance Is Bliss: Study Shows People Avoid Information About Complex Social Issues | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Lorien Pratt's insight:

I've long talked about the "complexity ceiling" in my work, and now here's a study that illustrates it.  The actionable item here, is that when communicating complex social issues, we need to break them down into understandable pieces.  (Yet, if we stop there, we'll miss key dynamics: there must be a reduction/synthesis cycle).


From the article:

The participants who received the complex description indicated higher levels of perceived helplessness in getting through the economic downturn, more dependence on and trust in the government to manage the economy, and less desire to learn more about the issue.

 

“This is despite the fact that, all else equal, one should have less trust in someone to effectively manage something that is more complex”

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A Journey Through Uncertainty, To Better Outcomes

A Journey Through Uncertainty, To Better Outcomes | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"I was at a conference this past week, with government leaders at the state and municipal levels from the state of Maryland in the U.S.  Again and again I met and heard from people who continue to act and lead from the belief that all of their problems have solutions that can be managed, controlled, and predicted."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

This is a really great Decision Intelligence blog post, by a guy who hasn't heard of it (yet :) ) but understands many of the key principals.  My summary:

- Waltuk attends a conference where Lean Improvement people are working to map their systems (good) but using Vizio (not state of the art: need World Modeler)

- Waltuk has been asking these important questions for years of the Lean movement ,without an answer (my paraphrase):

1. How do you systematize collaborative, continuous, generative dialogue?

2. How can you detect activities that do not impact goals?

- Evidence-based management and big data also lack these answers

- None of them have a good approach to complex systems management

- "Management by objectives" initiatives often drive an unintended consequence: short-cuts to achieve the goals that end up creating negative outcomes that were not part of the original model (this is the *spoofing* unintended consequence pattern, see http://www.scoop.it/t/uconsq )

- Part of the problem is a "Newtonian worldview" that doesn't allow for typically complex causal relationships.  He's got this exactly right.






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Random things make beautiful patterns when they are bumped around in systematic ways

Random things make beautiful patterns when they are bumped around in systematic ways | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

This video shows salt scattered on a surface, which is made to vibrate at different frequencies.  The salt creates beautiful different patterns depending on the frequency.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

If a) we live inside systems that have structure (economic, cultural, political, etc.) and b) these systems are subjected to noise, then c) this video shows how systems create emergent patterns.  So d) if we can learn to model that emergence, we can e) do a much better job of achieving the goals that we want and avoiding unintended consequences.


h/t @Linda Larson Kemp

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Self-Service Decision Intelligence: a path to FREEDOM OF CHOICE?

Self-Service Decision Intelligence: a path to FREEDOM OF CHOICE? | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

The question of the headline is in fact composed of the following down-to-earth questions: Can self-service decision intelligence (SSDI) lead to freedom of choice for the decision-maker? Can she, i...

Lorien Pratt's insight:

What it means for a Decision Intelligence (DI) system to qualify as Self Service Decision Intelligence (SSDI).  Includes an example of a decision model implemented in Analytica.

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Where to start if you'd like to learn about systems, whether you're five or fifty

Where to start if you'd like to learn about systems, whether you're five or fifty | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Here’s the good news: you already think about systems. And you have some good intuitions about them. For instance, when someone says “we’re on a roll!” (an indicator of reinforcing feedback at work), you know there will likely be some built-in limit that ends the growth (that’s a systems pattern known as limits to growth). And you also get it when someone says, in reference to a family or a high performing team, that “1 + 1 = 3” or “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts” (that's the concept of emergence).

Lorien Pratt's insight:

This looks like a terrific resource: lots of books, articles, training, resources to learn about systems: from complexity to clarity.

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Guess what? Data's irrelevant when the future is different than the past.

Guess what?  Data's irrelevant when the future is different than the past. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

“One of the key reasons that successful organizations and individuals eventually fail is that they assume their future is an extension of their past.”

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Good to keep this in mind in a world filled with data.

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You think you've got data blindness now... just wait until your data starts to get old.

You think you've got data blindness now... just wait until your data starts to get old. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"...if collected within the current infrastructure at most companies, the data deluge is more likely to make an enterprise slower, less responsive and – in the long term – less 'intelligent'.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Here's my YouTube on the data deluge.  It's a big deal: http://youtu.be/dPEhq4Mpw24 .

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Worst business decisions are frequently the result of unintended consequences.

Worst business decisions are frequently the result of unintended consequences. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Q: What was the worst business decision ever made?
Lorien Pratt's insight:

I hadn't realized this!  Bad decisions often come from unintended consequences, and most of those can be seen as arising from a lack of ability to see the entire system.  Ergo: solve them through better systems thinking.


We seem to be suffering from an epidemic of hindsight, judging the situation by the data, not the system.  It's like trying to predict where the elephant will walk based on  her footprints (or maybe something else she leaves behind) rather than actually understanding elephants themselves.


Many of the bad decisions in this article can be seen a consequence of this lack of deep systems knowledge / systems navigational ability: the firing of Steve Jobs, Bank of America's purchase of Countrywide Financial, Fed moves that led to the Great Depression, and many more.


Wow.  Hadn't realized.  Let's fix this together, OK, friends???!!

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, July 24, 1:53 PM

I hadn't realized this!  Bad decisions often come from unintended consequences, and most of those can be seen as arising from a lack of ability to see the entire system.  Ergo: solve them through better systems thinking.


We seem to be suffering from an epidemic of hindsight, judging the situation by the data, not the system.  It's like trying to predict where the elephant will walk based on  her footprints (or maybe something else she leaves behind) rather than actually understanding elephants themselves.


Many of the bad decisions in this articlecan be seen a consequence of this lack of deep systems knowledge / systems navigational ability: the firing of Steve Jobs, Bank of America's purchase of Countrywide Financial, Fed moves that led to the Great Depression, and many more.


Wow.  Hadn't realized.  Let's fix this together, OK, friends???!!

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Change one thing. Change everything.

Change one thing.  Change everything. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

As human beings, we cannot change the past. We have control only of our individual destiny and the decisions that we make today. The tagline for the movie The Butterfly Effect is, “Change one thing, Change everything.”

Lorien Pratt's insight:

An analysis through the lens of unintended consequences of the situation with the U.S. border children.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, July 22, 12:54 PM

An analysis of the situation with the U.S. border children through the lens of unintended consequences.

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Mental Model: Complex Adaptive Systems

Mental Model: Complex Adaptive Systems | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Let's explore the concept of complex adaptive systems.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Probably the clearest explanation I've read of the distinction between complicated, complex, and adaptive.  Well worth a read

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The wicked problems of the world share something in common

The wicked problems of the world share something in common | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

As many of my colleagues and online acquaintances may know, my professional work has largely been grounded in the application of systems theory, to analyze and solve problems calling for a systems approach"

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Barry's discovered what I call a "systems pattern":


"As I assay it, the ten most intractable plagues of western civilization are conflict, violence, oppression, injustice, corruption, poverty, ignorance, alienation, suffering, and terrorism.


All ten of these hellish problems have something in common. Like cancer, they tend to reseed themselves, round-robin, from one instance to the next, in a never-ending cycle of recursion.


Systemic problems call for a systems approach to problem-solving. But that’s not going to happen until we elevate our collective problem-solving skills to near-genius levels."

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How the Exec Team Gets Better at Decision Making

Join TDI3 for an informative discussion about how the work done behind the conference room door is evolving, how it needs to evolve, and how “unintended consequences’ can be contained.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

We've substantially improved many aspects of corporate life, except decision making at the executive level, which is done the same as it was 100 years ago.  Seems there might be room for improvement.  Especially as we seem to see an increasing disease of unintended consequences.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, July 17, 1:31 PM

Better executive decisions => reduced unintended consequences.

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Complex systems more popular in books than Artificial Intelligence

Complex systems more popular in books than Artificial Intelligence | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

A search in the Google corpus of books shows that the ngram Complex Systems surpassed Artificial Intelligence in 2006. Check the Google Books Ngram Viewer.


Via Jorge Louçã, NESS
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Not a surprise, but good to see the data. This only goes through 2006, though.  Plotting the same curve on Google Trends (http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22artificial%20intelligence%22%2C%20complexity%2C%20%22unintended%20consequences%22%2C%20%22machine%20learning%22&cmpt=q) shows that "complex systems" has maintained its dominance over "artificial intelligence" since this crossover, except for one short period in early 2012, around the time that Judea Pearl won the Turning Award.


Interestingly, in recent years, "machine learning" has been on the rise, and is on a trend to cross "artificial intelligence" in the near future.

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