Decision Intelligence
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How Does Stress Affect the Decision Making Process?

How Does Stress Affect the Decision Making Process? | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
A guest post by Ryan Rivera who suffered from panic attacks for seven years. Although it is a premise that is quite obvious, stress has been proven to have far-reaching impact in the decision making process.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

"Studies show that cognitive stress, such as distractions, affects rational decision making. People experiencing stress are likely to choose the positive side of choices given to them."

Read more: http://www.weighteddecision.com/how-does-stress-affect-the-decision-making-process/#ixzz2tBdNqata

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Decision Intelligence
Decision intelligence (DI) is an interdisciplinary field that solves the world's most complex problems.   DI connects human decision makers to technologies like machine learning, AI, deep learning, visual decision modeling, complex systems modeling, big data, predictive analytics, UX design, statistical analysis, business intelligence, business process management, causal reasoning, evidence-based analysis, and more. For an overview, see the webinar at http://youtu.be/XRTJt3bVCaE, and more videos at http://www.youtube.com/quantellia. Many of these topics are vigorously discussed in the Decision Intelligence LinkedIn group: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=205078.  See http://www.lorienpratt.com/the-decision-intelligence-and-decision-engineering-ecosystem/ to learn about the emerging ecosystem of decision intelligence companies, influencers, and problems solved. Also, I offer DI and machine learning consulting services.  See http://bit.ly/1X8O2zF to learn more. Would you like to receive the DI News in email? Click here to sign up: http://bit.ly/29wYd1u
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Gongos Leverages Technology-Based Solutions to Propel Consumer-Centric Decision Making

Gongos Leverages Technology-Based Solutions to Propel Consumer-Centric Decision Making | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"Gongos, Inc. is a decision intelligence company that partners with Global 1000 corporations to help build the capability and competency in making great consumer-minded decisions."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

The latest news from a DI pioneer.

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Decision Intelligence at Mastercard

Decision Intelligence at Mastercard | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Mastercard has introduced Decision Intelligence, a comprehensive decision and fraud detection service.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Nice to see DI gaining traction.

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NASA Frontier Development Lab

NASA Frontier Development Lab | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Lorien Pratt's insight:

AI/ ML friends: I'll be attending the Frontier Development Lab's Big Think on December 15 in San Francisco.  This is an important domain for machine learning, so I hope you can join me there.

 

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Responsibility, authority, and insanity

Responsibility, authority, and insanity | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
So this is pretty basic.  But it's huge. Problem: You are working at a bank and have been tasked with developing a new customer care program.  You're making good progress, and reach out one day to a colleague for their ideas.  Word of the meeting gets around, and an executive walks into your office one…
Lorien Pratt's insight:

As I build DI solutions for clients, I am increasingly using DI-based mental models in my day-to-day work and personal lives.  This is one that's I've found particularly valuable as I and my friends have our agency removed without a commensurate removal of responsibility.  Explaining the simple necessity of aligning authority and responsibility is an incredibly useful tool.

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What If It’s All Connected? Humanity and the Global Crisis

What If It’s All Connected? Humanity and the Global Crisis | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

We could easily let this massive clockwork of complexity overwhelm us. If it’s all connected, where and how shall I intervene? Isn’t it all too big for me to do anything about? Again, this is the beauty of interdependence. Tug at the right piece of frayed string and the whole rug will unravel before you....Humanity needs to think systemically. We need to act from a place of holistic insight.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

The latest explanation of the critical importance of systems thinking from the incomparable Joe Brewer.

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Prospect Identified: Now What?

Prospect Identified: Now What? | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

There is more to selling than knowing who will buy. Knowing when to contact a prospect and what to say can be just as important.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Absolutdata is one of a handful of companies selling solutions under the decision engineering (which we now call DI) banner.   Marketing and sales tend to be the early adopters of advanced tech (e.g. google, Amazon), so here's another data point in this pattern: AI/decision engineering for sales analysis.  Looks like a great new offering.

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Empathy: The Core of Complex Decisions | Lorien Pratt | TEDxLivermore

Making decisions based on invisible inputs is like building a sky scraper without a blue-print. Yet that is the norm, even for very complex problems
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Please enjoy my TEDx Livermore talk. This is the core of the decision intelligence vision.  Please share.

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Buckminster Fuller’s Manifesto for the Genius of Generalists

Buckminster Fuller’s Manifesto for the Genius of Generalists | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
"Only mind can discover how to do so much with so little as forever to be able to sustain and physically satisfy all humanity."
Via Steve Wilhite, luc taesch
Lorien Pratt's insight:

So much is moving today from analysis to synthesis.

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luc taesch's curator insight, August 9, 2016 4:30 AM
vital distinction between money-work and purpose, debunking the myth of the zero-sum game of prosperity
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One link think

One link think | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

In the swirl of events, I'm often left wondering if there's something deeper going on.  Our leaders seem to be increasingly missing the bigger picture.  A glimpse, here and there, into the underlying cause of dead ends we've reached: problems with capitalism, the media, politics, climate, conflict, health care.   Is there a common cause? ..."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

When I ran across George Lakoff's article on direct versus systemic causation this morning, it crystallized the "one link think" theme that keeps crossing my mind as I observe world events and think about what's missing.   New to me: the empirical evidence regarding a correlation between one- versus multi-link thinking and political preference. 

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Business School Students Are Taught to Extract Resources and Make a Quick Buck Instead of Creating Value

Business School Students Are Taught to Extract Resources and Make a Quick Buck Instead of Creating Value | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"...executives started to base all of their business decisions on the goal of boosting their firms’ stock prices. When corporations become financialized, executives turn their attention away from investing in the productive capabilities of employees, which is the basic building block for rising American living standards. They also tend to allocate fewer resources to research and development, which is where innovation happens. Instead, executives watch the stock market — in large part because their own compensation was increasingly based on the value of the company’s shares."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

1980s Wall Street->executive shift to focus on shareholder value rather than productive employees / less investment in R&D->Business schools adapted curriculum to appeal to MBAs looking for a "quick buck"->by 1990s shareholders viewed as only constituents-> today focus on Wall Street / quant / modeling rather than on focusing on how to run a business->many teachers don't understand negative impacts of shareholder value (despite Jack Welch calling it "the dumbest idea in the world".

 

My $0.02: this is also an example of an increasing focus on "hard" (e.g. financial) factors rather than "soft" (e.g. social utility) factors in the face of global complexity and competition.

 

DI relevance: look at the first line: it's about business decisions that don't include long-term and soft factors.  That's our mission, people.  Let's do this.

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Pulling Back the Curtain on #MachineLearning Apps in #Business

Pulling Back the Curtain on #MachineLearning Apps in #Business | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"There is a big mistake that many companies are making, spending too much time on their data."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Please enjoy this techemergence interview with me.  I touch on intelligence augmentation (IA), machine learning in vision, text, and other domains, the emerging decision intelligence ecosystem, the limits of data, and how to hire a machine learning consultant.

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Confessions of a former covert CIA agent - Amaryllis Fox

"Because if your enemy is a policy, no matter how complicated...that we can work with."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Believe it or not, this compelling video of a former covert CIA agent is about decision intelligence.

 

Our adversaries are humans too, with children they care about, and people they love.

 

By moving from "us vs. them" and seeking a shared vision and working towards shared synergistic outcomes through getting complex situations under control, we have a chance.  It's about policies being too complicated, and working together to fix them.

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squarebeef's comment, June 15, 2016 3:20 AM
Helpful...!!
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Companies struggling to operationalize big data

Companies struggling to operationalize big data | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

There is a “growing gulf” between companies’ desire to embrace big data and their ability to operationalize it..."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

The explosion of big data has created an adjacent "desert": knowledge and best practices about how to translate that data into value.   This is especially true in large organizations, in areas like telecom (as shown here), health care, and government.  This article is one of many showing that this resource is vastly underutilized. 

 

Indeed, there isn't even a widely-followed practice of how to write a specification/requirement/objectives document for a project that uses big data.  Indeed, most companies begin with the data, and only later get to the use case / machine learning spec / decision modeling that will translate that data into their business objectives. 

 

This is what we do for our clients (http://bit.ly/1Ukqi98).

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Make the Right Choice: Three Steps to Effective Decision Making

Making an important decision is never easy, but making the right decision is even more challenging.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Three steps: understanding causality, improving forecasts, and sorting relevance.  A nice way to think about some key DI concepts, with some cognitive bias and inside/outside view thrown in for good measure.

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A Tale of Two Dystopias: Order and Chaos on the Electronic Frontier

A Tale of Two Dystopias: Order and Chaos on the Electronic Frontier | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

So I look at the landscape, as many of you do, and try to figure out how to move the right levers to avoid those futures. But every lever you can move makes another lever move in the other direction. For every action, there’s an equal and opposite reaction ...Nobody But Us is going to set the initial conditions for the future of the Internet. Nobody But Us — those of us in this room, and our communities outside of this room, and our opponents who want to abuse the Internet to control us or steal from us or attack us — is going to determine which science fictional future we’re going to live in, whether it looks like the Maelstrom, or Big Brother, or both, or neither. Nobody But Us is going to create the future that we want. We are the butterflies. This is water. It’s up to us, all of us, chaos muppets and order muppets alike, to fight dystopia.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Looking out from inside the vortex, sometimes you get a glimpse of its shape.

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Death by proxy

Death by proxy | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"This year, our priority is customer experience.  Everything we do must connect to that." "We'll upgrade the network in a neighborhood when the bandwidth utilization exceeds 80%." "I'm going to get rich, then I'll be happy." Good ideas, on the surface.  Problem is: they're often wrong. And they share a common thought pattern..."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

To take AI to the next level (and to use it to solve the grand challenges), we need a good understanding of how the world works.  And for most of that thinking, it's not about facts and conclusions, but actions that lead to outcomes.  Unfortunately, we can get lost along the way between the two.  "Death by proxy" is a widespread pattern.

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New Tech Colorado

New Tech Longmont

Wednesday, Nov 16, 2016, 6:00 PM

Longmont Museum and Cultural Center
400 Quail Rd Longmont, CO

85 New Technologists Attending

Artificial Intelligence:  A Perspective From Pioneers Big Data, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence. These are among the biggest knowledge technologies changing everything. Imagine how much Google, Facebook and other companies understand you. How can you learn what these technologies are and what they can do? To see the future it helps to ...

Check out this Meetup →

Artificial Intelligence:  A Perspective From Pioneers
Big Data, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence. These are among the biggest knowledge technologies changing everything.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Join me in Longmont CO Wednesday night for what should be a great panel.  I'll be talking about machine learning, AI, decision intelligence, and new developments like the Silicon Valley Simcenter.

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Physicists have discovered what makes neural networks and deep learning so extraordinarily powerful

Physicists have discovered what makes neural networks and deep learning so extraordinarily powerful | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Nobody understands why deep neural networks are so good at solving complex problems. Now physicists say the secret is buried in the laws of physics.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

I've been getting off-the-charts successful results with deep learning lately, and this article explains a bit of why.  It seems that, although there are an infinite number of models that could possibly be built, the universe is constrained and so reality only follows a subset of them.  And deep learning models a similar subset.  So by choosing a structure that emulates the hierarchical structure of the human brain, which also evolved to model that same subset of functions, deep learning doesn't have to search an infinity of mathematical functions, rather a much smaller space.  And that's how it can be tractable.  How cool is that?

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Humanity, Star Trek, Buckminster Fuller, and the Kobayashi Maru

Humanity, Star Trek, Buckminster Fuller, and the Kobayashi Maru | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"I reprogrammed the simulation so it was possible to rescue the ship"

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Please read this terrific article by my friend @stevebrant.  A rich fictional world is essential for the kind of systems change that we need for DI to be widespread. And Star Trek: Discovery may well be the right vehicle.

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Integrated reporting as a sustainability tool

Integrated reporting as a sustainability tool | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
It's time for integrated thinking — or the development of business models, strategies and decision-making that integrate concerns for society and the environment into the pursuit of profitability — in integrated reporting.

Via Acquisti & Sostenibilità not-for-profit
Lorien Pratt's insight:

We can talk about new things like decision intelligence all we want, but we need to meet organizations where they are at today: and reporting is done by everyone.

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Dr. Sheila Ronis: The Center for Complex and Strategic Decisions - Past, Present and Future

Dr. Sheila Ronis: The Center for Complex and Strategic Decisions - Past, Present and Future | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Hosts: Quantellia; SV SIMCenter; One Island, Ford Innovation presents Dr. Sheila Ronis: The Center for Complex and Strategic Decisions - Past, Present and Future - Wednesday, August 24, 2016 at The Ford Research and Innovation Center, Palo Alto, CA.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Join me August 24 in Palo Alto for this important speaker.

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Now is the Time to Be Rooted In Reality

Now is the Time to Be Rooted In Reality | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"In this time of unprecedented global change, we need to be rooted in reality more than ever. Yet it is quite clear — by simply tracking all the ways people make an exodus from “the real” on a daily basis — that we are not doing this individually or as a collective humanity....there is a profound disconnect between what is needed and the outcomes we are getting....it is essential that we learn how to discern what is really going on. This means disconnecting from the endless streams of novelty on our social media feeds. It means studying the cultural logics of our political and economic systems. Deeply and thoroughly, it means understanding the history of what brought us to this period of mass turbulence that is now changing the very chemistry of our planet — and redefining our place in the world....What we aren’t doing is putting all the pieces together and acting on what we would see if we did so. As a knowledge synthesizer myself, I see where many of the patterns converge. But more watchful eyes are sorely needed. And better ways of coordinating ourselves toward collective action must follow from what we see together. This means we need a LOT more people connecting with reality.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

This is one of the best manifestos on the importance of decision intelligence I've seen.  And, like us, Joe Brewer realizes that Design is core to the solution to the problems we face.  Any friends know Joe?  Yet another tribe member to connect to the hive.... :-)

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Solving All the Wrong Problems

Solving All the Wrong Problems | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"A service that sends someone to fill your car with gas.

A service that sends a valet on a scooter to you, wherever you are, to park your car.

A service that will film anything you desire with a drone.

A service that will pack your suitcase — virtually."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

A very important article, reflecting a growing sentiment in technology circles that we need to focus on the grand challenges.  DI is a road map for bridging the two worlds: hooking in the the big data / machine learning folks complex decisions.

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Empathy Theme of TEDx Livermore

Empathy Theme of TEDx Livermore | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
TEDxLivermore team has chosen empathy as the theme for its 2016 meeting.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Join us tomorrow in Livermore

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The Economy Isn't A Machine. It's Organic and Constantly Evolving. - Evonomics

The Economy Isn't A Machine. It's Organic and Constantly Evolving. - Evonomics | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

The standard, equilibrium approach has been highly successful. It sees the economy as perfect, rational, and machine-like, and many economists – I’m certainly one – admire its power and elegance. But these qualities come at a price. By its very definition, equilibrium filters out exploration, creation, transitory phenomena: anything in the economy that takes adjustment – adaptation, innovation, structural change, history itself. These must be bypassed or dropped from the theory.

 

By the mid 1980s, many economists were ready for a change.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Core DI reading: W. Brian Arthur's overview of the history of complexity economics.  Complexity economics is very closely related to DI: the difference is DI's tighter connection to machine learning, and our emphasis on visual models that make complex models accessible to the masses.  Also, DI has a tighter focus: on the decision - than economics, which seeks to model larger systems. We share identical roots however: the core themes of emergence, systems, and complexity are essential for solving complex problems, and complexity economics is way ahead of the pack in terms of fields that understand this.

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