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Welcome to the Future

Welcome to the Future | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

New D-Wave website is live. 

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Historic moment.

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Decision Intelligence
Decision intelligence (DI) is an interdisciplinary field with a mission to solve the world's most complex problems.  It is based on the premise that the decisionis most important when dealing with complexity.   Closely related to Decision Engineering, Decision intelligence draws upon  technology such as machine learning, visual decision modeling, complex systems modeling, big data, predictive analytics, machine learning, UX design, statistical analysis, business intelligence, business process management, causal reasoning, evidence-based analysis, and more. For an overview, see the webinar at http://youtu.be/XRTJt3bVCaEand more videos at http://www.youtube.com/quantellia. Many of these topics are vigorously discussed in the Decision Intelligence discussion group: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=205078.  See http://www.lorienpratt.com/the-decision-intelligence-and-decision-engineering-ecosystem/ to learn about the emerging ecosystem of decision intelligence companies, influencers, and problems solved. Also, I offer DI and machine learning consulting services, see http://bit.ly/1X8O2zF to learn more.
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Decision intelligence and empathy: TEDx Livermore

Decision intelligence and empathy: TEDx Livermore | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

http://www.tedxlivermore.com/news/: "This year’s theme, the economics of empathy, is a highly nuanced theme. It is about how we can use empathy to shape our community when our empathies are in conflict. Literally, we can see all sides of an issue and know that there is no solution that leaves everyone with everything they want. But, because we start with empathy as currency, we try to at least get our community as a whole, and individuals, what they need. "

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Mark your calendar: I'll be speaking June 25 at TEDx Livermore.  More soon.

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Necessary, but not sufficient

Necessary, but not sufficient | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"...no one thing alone is enough: not a great idea like Decision Intelligence or a fantastic initiative like the Silicon Valley Sim Center Instead, we catalyze existing movements, nudge and sway, and put in the hard long hours of pitch after pitch.  I like to think of Jodie Foster’s character in this scene from Contact, going to one funding agent after another with her crazy idea (“a nice presentation, doctor”).  But even she was only necessary, not sufficient."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Necessary, but not sufficient: Innovation is freaking hard, and is about way more than technical issues, especially today.  Ideas, and even technology, are no longer the risk points . It's about catalyzing *existing* movements in communities of practice.

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Stop Measuring Value!

Stop Measuring Value! | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"We all know that brushing our teeth twice a day is a productive action needed to get to dental health, which we value. If we attempted to measure what is of value (dental health) we’d be keeping track of the number of cavities we have. We might even get obsessed about more sophisticated measures involving x-rays. But none of these “measures of value” would drive the essential action to brush twice a day. On the other hand, the simple and humble metric of the number of times we have brushed is very productive in getting us to actually brush. Without even requiring a deep understanding of dental health, this metric gets us to dental health because it drives productive action. In simple terms, it drives results."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

One of my favorite new friends from Banff

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Guesstimate: models for uncertain things

Guesstimate: models for uncertain things | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
A spreadsheet for things that aren't certain
Lorien Pratt's insight:
I wrote a while back that the age of models was ascending as data plateaus.  Guesstimate - currently in beta - offers web-based models that make it easy to visualize uncertainty.  Awesome.
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What Happens When the Surveillance State Becomes an Affordable Gadget?

What Happens When the Surveillance State Becomes an Affordable Gadget? | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"The more complex the system becomes, the more vulnerable it is."

Lorien Pratt's insight:
I am seeing dozens of situations that follow this pattern: complexity + automation = insidious and hidden fragility / vulnerability / unintended consequences.  I think that good systems / decision models are essential to solving these issues at the same speed that the bad guys exploit them.
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How Data Analytics Impacts Business Decisions

How Data Analytics Impacts Business Decisions | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
"Google Maps does one thing, and does it well: it tells you where to turn when you’re going somewhere. It doesn’t tell you what satellites it’s using, what the wind speed is, and what other cars are doing. It gives you simple information to act on."
Lorien Pratt's insight:
Why we must build simple decision-focused interfaces to sophisticated systems. 
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Dané Davis's curator insight, March 5, 7:59 AM
Why we must build simple decision-focused interfaces to sophisticated systems. 
Martin McGaha's curator insight, March 5, 10:08 PM
Why we must build simple decision-focused interfaces to sophisticated systems. 
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The Missing Link of Artificial Intelligence

The Missing Link of Artificial Intelligence | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
We don’t know how to make software that learns without explicit instruction—but we need to if dreams of humanlike AI are to come true.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

A good introduction to supervised versus unsupervised versus reinforcement learning.

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Society of Decision Professionals annual meeting April 6-8 in Banff

Society of Decision Professionals annual meeting April 6-8 in Banff | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

The Decision Analysis Affinity Group (DAAG) is SDP's annual conference and brings together decision professionals from multiple industries to share ideas, successes, and failures. . The Society of Decision Professionals (SDP) supports decision professionals to become the trusted advisors of choice for decision makers facing important and complex decisions.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Thanks to an awesome reader / angel, I'll be going to Banff!!!! THANK YOU (you know who you are).  Who wants to meet me there? -Lorien

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Report: artificial intelligence will cause "structural collapse" of law firms by 2030

Report: artificial intelligence will cause "structural collapse" of law firms by 2030 | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Robots and artificial intelligence (AI) will dominate legal practice within 15 years, perhaps leading to the "structural collapse" of law firms, a report predicting the shape of the legal market has envisaged.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

This seems to be plausible, based on what I've been hearing from senior experts in the law and technology.  Indeed, where machine learning for vision and speech are fueling today's explosion, the demand I'm seeing for text analytics and machine learning from documents and web sites in my own consulting work indicates indicates that text will be the next wave of AI disruption.  Watson too.  And this will hit law firms particularly hard.

 

I like the silver lining idea here: that law firms can spend more time on the human side of things.

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Sandy Gilchrist's curator insight, February 15, 4:02 AM

"It's never going to happen to me," I hear you say, "besides, it's nearly 15 years away - I've got plenty of time to worry about things like that, and I may even be retired by then."  A friend of mine has a plate on his wall with the simple print on it: TU IT - he likes to remind us that we all suffer from the phenomena of the urge to get 'a round tu it' (er, 'around to it'), also known as procrastination, and its elder brother 'procrastination is the thief of time' if you don't do something about it.  The point is that change is inevitable - just like death and taxes, it's not a "what if...", it's a "when..."  And core to platforms like LifeBank is the ability to make preparations well in advance for the day when the change happens - indeed, it's part of the process of making the change.  Digital disruption is happening to everyone - "Uber is the world's biggest taxi company that doesn't own any taxis"; "LifeBank will be the world's biggest data company that doesn't now any data"'; but who will be "the worlds biggest legal firm that doesn't have any lawyers?"  Ha ha ha.  Laugh all you like.  But if you're a lawyer with another 20+ years 'practice' in you, it's worth considering diversification in your career - there is, after all, no such thing in life as zero risk.  You don't need to take the chance whilst you have plenty of warning.  LifeBank helps lawyers to secure their customers and prepare for their own disruptions... LifeBank is not a bad way for lawyers to start preparing themselves for the disruptions too.

Lewis J. Perelman's curator insight, February 21, 1:12 PM

Major law firms already are collapsing. This is an ongoing trend.

Martin McGaha's curator insight, March 5, 10:11 PM

This seems to be plausible, based on what I've been hearing from senior experts in the law and technology.  Indeed, where machine learning for vision and speech are fueling today's explosion, the demand I'm seeing for text analytics and machine learning from documents and web sites in my own consulting work indicates indicates that text will be the next wave of AI disruption.  Watson too.  And this will hit law firms particularly hard.

 

I like the silver lining idea here: that law firms can spend more time on the human side of things.

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Happy 97th birthday, Russell Ackoff

Happy 97th birthday, Russell Ackoff | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

It is possible to solve the many crises America faces. It is possible to not just solve but dissolve our crises in education, health care, job creation, etc. But we won't do so if we keep trying to solve them the way we have... separately. We must solve them in the context of redesigning the larger sociological system in which they all reside.

 

And this is why I am urging all of you to explore the life's work of Dr. Russell Ackoff - and that of the other systems thinking theorists with whom he worked - on this, the occasion of his death. There is no more critical thing "we, the people" can do for the long-term health of our nation than to reorient how we approach solving our problems.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Time to read some Ackoff. Where's a good place to start?

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From Systems Thinking to Systems Being

From Systems Thinking to Systems Being | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Systems being and systems living brings it all together: linking head, heart and hands. The expression of systems being is an integration of our full human capacities. It involves rationality with reverence to the mystery of life, listening beyond words, sensing with our whole being, and expressing our authentic self in every moment of our life. "

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Beyond systems thinking.  I think those of us doing this have been feeling something along this lines.  Nice to hear it articulated.

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Martin McGaha's curator insight, March 5, 10:10 PM

Beyond systems thinking.  I think those of us doing this have been feeling something along this lines.  Nice to hear it articulated.

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Bugs, Scopes, Decisions, and Regulations

Bugs, Scopes, Decisions, and Regulations | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Recent headlines about “superbug” transmission by endoscopes highlight the importance of high-quality decision making when information about adverse consequences surfaces after medical devices are marketed. Existing practice (ISO 14971) emphasizes the use of the Risk Matrix, which lacks foundation in decision science and may lead to arbitrary decision making.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

The SDP webinars are excellent.  Highly recommended.

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Boatload of new US government data now available

Boatload of new US government data now available | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
  • Promoting employment by unlocking workforce data, including training, skill, job, and wage listings.
  • Enhancing transparency and participation by expanding available Federal services to the Open311 platform currently available to cities, giving the public a seamless way to report problems and request assistance.
  • Releasing public information from the electronically filed tax forms of nonprofit and charitable organizations (990 forms) as open, machine-readable data.
  • Expanding access to justice through the White House Legal Aid Interagency Roundtable.
  • Promoting open and accountable implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals.


Lorien Pratt's insight:

Important new data to support your favorite DI projects:


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Watch out, Bucky’s back

Watch out, Bucky’s back | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Conferences are for meeting and learning.  Project teams are for solving problems and building deliverables.   Data analysis is done by senior researchers, trained by their mentors.  Online communities are for socializing. Right? Maybe there's a new mix.  Can we solve difficult problems in a short-term conference setting?  Is there a new way ...

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Watch out, Bucky’s back

 

The latest on the Silicon Valley Sim Center

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Decision intelligence for data center disaster planning

Decision intelligence for data center disaster planning | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Much of the world's information is handled in data centers: nondescript on the outside, indoors you'll find a din of humming machine in acres of racks.  If an earthquake or other natural disaster should strike a data center, the cost can be enormous. So spending money on risk mitigation strategies like earthquake-proofing makes sense."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

To help you understand what decision intelligence is all about, here's how it can be used in a data center.  Includes an interactive decsion model in the web page.

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Wicked problems, machine learning, and the artistic brain

Wicked problems, machine learning, and the artistic brain | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"What is the future of Silicon Valley technology?  Will it always be about consumer applications, advertising, and media, or will we extend this technology to the “wicked problems”, like poverty, hunger, conflict, and climate change?  In this talk, I provide a taste of how Silicon Valley ingredients like big data and deep learning are beginning to mix with other technologies, such as the systems models of Buckminster Fuller, complex systems analysis, machine learning, and advanced UX.  At the heart of these new solutions is an increasing importance of what we might call the “artistic” brain: visual-spatial and motor skills that haven’t historically played a large part in the solution of complex problems.  Indeed, the ability to reason about complex systems in an immersive, visual, way is the most important literacy of the 21st century.  Gamers know this.  The Silicon Valley Sim Center initiative is making it happen.  Join me to learn how these technologies are crystallizing into new solutions that bridge the gap to solving the important issues of our time, in both the private and public sectors.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Join me in San Jose next Thursday

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Guest post: The convergence of behavioral economics and big data

Guest post: The convergence of behavioral economics and big data | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
What does cold dead fish have to do with random forests? If you were to open a restaurant that served cold dead fish, you would not stay open for very long. However, if you used the concept of framing and instead sold a delicacy called Sushi, you would have much better chance of staying in…
Lorien Pratt's insight:
Behavioral economics is closely related to DI: it's understanding how to understand and influence behavior
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Awakening from the Illusion of Separation

Awakening from the Illusion of Separation | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"There is always a lot of input and output. The input and the output happen in every second, and we should learn how to look at life as streams of being, and not as separate entities. This is a very profound teaching of the Buddha."

Lorien Pratt's insight:
Input and output, streams of being, interdependence...it's nice how principles of decision intelligence reach down and up to other ways of thinking.  In this case it's a Dharma talk by Engaged Buddhist Thich Nhat Hanh.
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johnmac's rants: What Will Save Us? - How AI and Cyberspace Contention Will Impact Our Future

johnmac's rants: What Will Save Us? - How AI and Cyberspace Contention Will Impact Our Future | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
"For generations, we have rewarded deep knowledge of individual disciplines, such as chemistry, economics, technology, physics, etc. while not paying the attention necessary to unify these solutions when required to address much larger problems. To do so, you need software that will take complex problems and provide answers that are simple enough for comprehension."
Lorien Pratt's insight:
Nice article by John McMullen, quotes me on reductionism-to-synthesis transition being catalyzed by DI.
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Effective Decision-Making: How to make better decisions under uncertainty and pressure

Effective Decision-Making: How to make better decisions under uncertainty and pressure (English Edition) eBook: Edoardo Binda Zane: Amazon.de: Kindle-Shop
Lorien Pratt's insight:

It's so exciting to see this new book on effective decision making.  Congratulations Edoardo!

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Edoardo Binda Zane's comment, February 25, 11:23 AM
HI Lorien, thanks for all your support!! :-)
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The Circular Economy Business Model Toolkit

The Circular Economy Business Model Toolkit | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

In partnership with Unilever, we have developed a toolkit identifying 10 circular business model archetypes. These archetypes distil our long-term research into circular business models and include case studies we have spotted over the last few years.

 

In the toolkit users can find an infographic summarising the archetypes and a card deck with inspirational case studies. The notes section of every business case also includes more detail on the potential market growth opportunities, the potential to apply the example to brands and the scalability of each case. The user will also find an exercise that can be applied, for example, in workshop situations.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

A practical starting kit for understanding the business models of the 21st century.

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Polythink: disjointed and paralyzed decision making by presidential advisors

Polythink: disjointed and paralyzed decision making by presidential advisors | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

The Polythink Syndrome: U.S. Foreign Policy Decisions on 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and ISIS By Alex Mintz and Carly Wayne, (Stanford University Press 2016)

 

Why do presidents and their advisors often make sub-optimal decisions on military intervention, escalation, de-escalation, and termination of conflicts? The leading concept of group dynamics, groupthink, offers one explanation: policy-making groups make sub-optimal decisions due to their desire for conformity and uniformity over dissent, leading to a failure to consider other relevant possibilities.

 

But presidential advisory groups are often fragmented and divisive.

 

This book therefore scrutinizes polythink, a group decision-making dynamic whereby different members in a decision-making unit espouse a plurality of opinions and divergent policy prescriptions, resulting in a disjointed decision-making process or even decision paralysis.

 

The book analyzes eleven national security decisions, including the national security policy designed prior to the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the decisions to enter into and withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq, the 2007 "surge" decision, the crisis over the Iranian nuclear program, the UN Security Council decision on the Syrian Civil War, the faltering Kerry Peace Process in the Middle East, and the U.S. decision on military operations against ISIS.

 

Based on the analysis of these case studies, the authors address implications of the polythink phenomenon, including prescriptions for avoiding and/or overcoming it, and develop strategies and tools for what they call Productive Polythink. The authors also show the applicability of polythink to business, industry, and everyday decisions.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

This looks important.  A new concept for me: "polythink": Gotta get this one.  Please drop me a line if you've read it

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We have the frightening data. Now what?

"With the data available,  CB7's Transportation Committee had to make a decision about what to do with it..."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

This will happen more and more: faced with data describing a problem, the next question is how to use it to make a decision.  Anybody on the upper west side of Manhattan who wants to build the decision model?  I'll help you out.

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Talking Sustainability with Gil Friend

"On this week's Behind the Headlines editor Jocelyn Dong leads a discussion with guest Gil Friend, chief sustainability officer of Palo Alto and reporters Gennady Sheyner and Sue Dremann about Palo Alto's goals to reduce carbon emissions and promote alternative modes of transportation."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Municipal sustainability planning is one of the most important applications for decision intelligence. 

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Bucky, Bucky, Everywhere

Bucky, Bucky, Everywhere | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
This popped up today: (thanks, Ray Podder!) Of course!  It's a Bucky Ball! ...which is probably the root meme here, driving such new developments as Kimberly Wiefling and Peter Meisen's initiative to bring a Fuller-inspired SIMCenter to Silicon Valley (more on this soon). And here's the graphic I've been using (from the Millennium Project) in…
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Please send along your own buckyball sightings.  I'll add them to the article

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