Decision Intelligence
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Quantum computers: antifragile complex systems

Commentary from D-Wave Chief Scientist, Eric Ladizinsky

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Amazing story, including some antifragiilty of quantum computing content: 08:15: "You're going to have these systems of interest coupled with these uncontrolled fluctuating environments... It'll work anyway, and in fact it might work a little bit better with a little noise...we now have a programmable piece of quantum matter...and that's a treasure, in terms of making progress."

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Decision Intelligence
Decision intelligence (DI) is an interdisciplinary field with a mission to solve the world's most complex problems.  It is based on the premise that the decision is most important when dealing with complexity.   DI integrates multiple technologies like machine learning, visual decision modeling, complex systems modeling, big data, predictive analytics, UX design, statistical analysis, business intelligence, business process management, causal reasoning, evidence-based analysis, and more. For an overview, see the webinar at http://youtu.be/XRTJt3bVCaE, and more videos at http://www.youtube.com/quantellia. Many of these topics are vigorously discussed in the Decision Intelligence LinkedIn group: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=205078.  See http://www.lorienpratt.com/the-decision-intelligence-and-decision-engineering-ecosystem/ to learn about the emerging ecosystem of decision intelligence companies, influencers, and problems solved. Also, I offer DI and machine learning consulting services.  See http://bit.ly/1X8O2zF to learn more.
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Why do you make bad decisions?

Why do you make bad decisions? | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
From cognitive bias to groupthink - this chart shows what could be clouding your thinking

Via Philippe Vallat
Lorien Pratt's insight:

A nice chart with the classic biases

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Gary Bamford's curator insight, December 27, 2015 5:28 AM

Something to consider in the New Year.

Paulo Amendoeira's curator insight, February 1, 6:11 AM

Why do you make bad decisions?

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The Science of Intuition: How to Measure 'Hunches' and 'Gut Feelings'

The Science of Intuition: How to Measure 'Hunches' and 'Gut Feelings' | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"The results showed that when the participants were shown the positive subliminal images, they did better on the task: They were more accurate in determining which way the dots were moving. But they also responded more quickly and reported feeling more confident in their choice.

The experiments also suggested that the participants became better at using their intuition over time, Pearson said. "It's all about learning to use unconscious information in your brain," he said. Just as people can become more comfortable making decisions when they apply logic and reasoning, they may also become more adept at trusting their intuition when they use it more frequently over time, the study revealed. "

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Unlike previous studies, which relied primarily on questionnaires, this study used a clever subliminal design to present information to only the subconscious - and not the conscious - mind.

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The Ninth Intelligence

The Ninth Intelligence | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"In Howard Gardner's catalog of Multiple Intelligences, the Ninth Intelligence is the rarest of them all...."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

A great insight from Barry Kort.  And a beautiful little gem of a video trailer about Gregory Bateson here.  A couple of my favorite quotes:
"...He was interested in larger patterns, he was interested in how things are connected"

and

"The major problems of the world are the result of the difference between how nature works and how people think."

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New Spaceship Speed in Conway’s Game of Life

New Spaceship Speed in Conway’s Game of Life | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"To explain why this is such a groundbreaking discovery, I should first tell you that Life spaceships can be loosely divided into two categories. Engineered ships are the ones that consist of various small components. They often have adjustable speed. However, the population of tens of thousands to millions of cells causes these spaceships to have no practical value. There is much more incentive in hunting for elementary spaceships, which can be used for complex constructions."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Imagine you have a spreadsheet.  Some cells are black ("live"), others white.  Now you have software that updates that spreadsheet, using these simple rules:

  1. Any live cell with fewer than two live neighbours dies (referred to as underpopulation or exposure[1]).
  2. Any live cell with more than three live neighbours dies (referred to as overpopulation or overcrowding).
  3. Any live cell with two or three live neighbours lives, unchanged, to the next generation.
  4. Any dead cell with exactly three live neighbours will come to life.

As it turns out, there are emergent patterns from these simple rules: blinkers, "spaceships", and more.  And as shown in this article, an entire discipline has grown up around finding patterns that move, eat others, blink, and much much more.  I had no idea.

 

Why does this matter?  Because emergent patterns underlie everything.  From individual decisions made by people, individual strategies made by flocking birds, individual marketing decisions made by companies, and individual legislation introduced into governments, emerge *completely non-intuitive* patterns.

 

Understanding emergence is critical to solving the world's hardest problems, which happen as individual elements interact over time.  Much like the black and white cells on your spreadsheet.   

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Wicked problems, machine learning, and the artistic brain

"What is the future of Silicon Valley technology? Will it always be about consumer applications, advertising, and media, or will we extend this technology to the wicked problems of the world?  And what role does art and media play?"

Lorien Pratt's insight:

A grand tour of decision intelligence, with a focus on art and visual reasoning, also including what's happening in the Silicon Valley SimCenter and the Reality Stack vision

Thanks to Don Kimber of FXPAL for making it happen

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New evidence for subconscious rationality

New evidence for subconscious rationality | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Old-fashioned symbolic AI was based on the notion that reasoning happened consciously (and could be captured by logic and language).  Subsymbolic AI - of which today's (primarily neural network-based) machine learning is a subfield, recognizes that to emulate human thought, we must go beyond the consciously introspectable.

 

So what are the implications of subconscious rationality on decision intelligence?  If decisions are made "below the water line", then how can a consciously accessed thing - like a dashboard or visualization - help?  By training our subconscious reasoning. 

 

That's the core premise of DI: that we "train the brain" through rich, interactive, whole-body visualizations.  This article is good recent evidence that this is on the right track.

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Artificial intelligence and human limits

Artificial intelligence and human limits | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Are we getting dumber?  Or is stuff just harder? Both are true.  Between-silo problems are the new bottleneck.  We're inundated with information, so we take cognitive short cuts.   And "wicked" problems keep getting wickeder. Take this "invisible art" artist.  She sold a few.* Real decisions are made in the heart, the gut, based on…
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Vinay Gupta: The Man Who is Constantly Trying to Solve Humanity's Largest Problems and Save All of Our Lives

Vinay Gupta: The Man Who is Constantly Trying to Solve Humanity's Largest Problems and Save All of Our Lives | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Vinay Gupta is the smartest human you've never heard of. He's a technologist, inventor, futurist, systems theorist, and global resilience guru whose life's work focuses on how to ensure the long-term survival and flourishing of the human race.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Another bucky follower  / systems thinker working on wicked problems

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Watch out, Bucky’s back

Watch out, Bucky’s back | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Conferences are for meeting and learning.  Project teams are for solving problems and building deliverables.   Data analysis is done by senior researchers, trained by their mentors.  Online communities are for socializing. Right? Maybe there's a new mix.  Can we solve difficult problems in a short-term conference setting?  Is there a new way ...

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Watch out, Bucky’s back

 

The latest on the Silicon Valley Sim Center

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Decision intelligence for data center disaster planning

Decision intelligence for data center disaster planning | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Much of the world's information is handled in data centers: nondescript on the outside, indoors you'll find a din of humming machine in acres of racks.  If an earthquake or other natural disaster should strike a data center, the cost can be enormous. So spending money on risk mitigation strategies like earthquake-proofing makes sense."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

To help you understand what decision intelligence is all about, here's how it can be used in a data center.  Includes an interactive decsion model in the web page.

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Wicked problems, machine learning, and the artistic brain

Wicked problems, machine learning, and the artistic brain | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"What is the future of Silicon Valley technology?  Will it always be about consumer applications, advertising, and media, or will we extend this technology to the “wicked problems”, like poverty, hunger, conflict, and climate change?  In this talk, I provide a taste of how Silicon Valley ingredients like big data and deep learning are beginning to mix with other technologies, such as the systems models of Buckminster Fuller, complex systems analysis, machine learning, and advanced UX.  At the heart of these new solutions is an increasing importance of what we might call the “artistic” brain: visual-spatial and motor skills that haven’t historically played a large part in the solution of complex problems.  Indeed, the ability to reason about complex systems in an immersive, visual, way is the most important literacy of the 21st century.  Gamers know this.  The Silicon Valley Sim Center initiative is making it happen.  Join me to learn how these technologies are crystallizing into new solutions that bridge the gap to solving the important issues of our time, in both the private and public sectors.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Join me in San Jose next Thursday

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Guest post: The convergence of behavioral economics and big data

Guest post: The convergence of behavioral economics and big data | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
What does cold dead fish have to do with random forests? If you were to open a restaurant that served cold dead fish, you would not stay open for very long. However, if you used the concept of framing and instead sold a delicacy called Sushi, you would have much better chance of staying in…
Lorien Pratt's insight:
Behavioral economics is closely related to DI: it's understanding how to understand and influence behavior
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Awakening from the Illusion of Separation

Awakening from the Illusion of Separation | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"There is always a lot of input and output. The input and the output happen in every second, and we should learn how to look at life as streams of being, and not as separate entities. This is a very profound teaching of the Buddha."

Lorien Pratt's insight:
Input and output, streams of being, interdependence...it's nice how principles of decision intelligence reach down and up to other ways of thinking.  In this case it's a Dharma talk by Engaged Buddhist Thich Nhat Hanh.
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Imagine a dog. Got it? I don’t. Here’s what it’s like to be unable to visualize anything.

Imagine a dog. Got it? I don’t. Here’s what it’s like to be unable to visualize anything. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
I have never visualized anything in my entire life. I can't "see" my father's face or a bouncing blue ball, my childhood bedroom or the run I went on 10 minutes ago. I'm 30 years old, and I never knew a human could do any of this.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Written by Firefox founder Blake Ross, this is a fascinating story about a condition I'd never heard of before: "aphantasia".  It means the lack of an ability to form pictures in your head.

 

For me, it's a cautionary tale of decision making diversity: just because decision mental models are *often* visual, they are not so for everyone. So this is reinforcement to a number of conversations I've been having (one just today with Ruth Fisher and John Kelly) that emphasize the importance of story (text) as an adjunct to a good decision visualization.

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Big data is worthless without AI

Big data is worthless without AI | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

What is big data?  Where did big data come from?  Big Data analytics 1.0.  Big Data analytics 2.0.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Slides from a great talk from H2o's Erin LeDell at Oscon last week.  Good view of how machine learning and AI help organizations to extract value from big data investments.

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Lorien Pratt to speak on "Empathy: the core of complex decisions": Tickets now on sale for TEDxLivermore

Lorien Pratt to speak on "Empathy: the core of complex decisions": Tickets now on sale for TEDxLivermore | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

Conference theme is "The economics of empathy".  See main web site here: http://www.tedxlivermore.com/tedxlivermore-2016/ , and buy tickets here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/tedxlivermore-2016-tickets-24303286785

Lorien Pratt's insight:

I hope to see you in Livermore in June.

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The hidden intelligence behind Ouija boards

The hidden intelligence behind Ouija boards | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

The ideomotor effect says that people can move or move something without their conscious mind realizing it. In the case of the Ouija board, if you really want the answer to a question to be yes and your partner knows it, you could both push the planchette to “YES” without either of you consciously applying any force. (And if you think you can ever keep your hands completely still, try keeping a laser pointer’s dot perfectly motionless.)"

Lorien Pratt's insight:

More evidence for unconscious rationality: this time it's the "ideomotor effect": you can move things - and even do so in cooperation with others - without the conscious mind realizing it. 

 

When I throw a ball at an audience during a DI talk, and when I say that decision intelligence is meant to train our intuitions to align more effectively in complex situations, this is what I'm talking about. 

 

There's a myth that "conscious == rational" and "unconscious == irrational".  I think that Kahneman and behavioral economics have debunked the former.  And now there's an increasing understanding of the validity of may aspects of the rational unconscious. 

 

Of course, this is what Malcolm Gladwell covered in "Blink".  DI takes the cognitive science insights there and transitions them into practical applications that solve "wicked" problems.

 

In DI we do this using a combination of methods, from systems thinking, to AI, to big data, and the interconnectedness insights of Buckminster Fuller, all on a basis of improved understanding of neuroscience and cognition.

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How researchers identified a heart condition using telephone metadata and search engines alone

How researchers identified a heart condition using telephone metadata and search engines alone | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
A new study finds government surveillance of telephone metadata can easily lead to invasions of privacy.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

This is a cautionary tale for machine learning: by detecting weak signals we can discover way more than what is apparent in a raw data source.  And in this article the researchers found that it didn't even require that level of sophistication to deduce a heart condition, a gun buyer, and a woman planning an abortion: not from the content of a phone call, but from the identity of who was called as well as the timing of those calls (aka metadata /  CDRs for my telecom friends).

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Artificially Intelligent Lawyer “Ross” Has Been Hired By Its First Official Law Firm

Artificially Intelligent Lawyer “Ross” Has Been Hired By Its First Official Law Firm | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Ross, the world's first artificially intelligent attorney, has its first official law firm. Baker & Hostetler announced that they will be employing Ross for its bankruptcy practice, currently comprised of almost 50 lawyers.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Congrats to my friend Bob, quoted here.   Thing are getting interesting :-)

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Sandy Gilchrist's curator insight, May 13, 4:04 AM
Before you know it, judges will also be AI - with intelligent cities, joined-up surveillance and data gathering across the Internet of Things, like cars, CCTV, ATMs, as soon as a crime is committed, it's already detected, analysed, lawyers appointed, case argued, decision, appealed, and conviction all in 23.4 seconds - and you'll find your bank account has been automatically deducted with costs as well as the fine.  Why not... anything's possible, because that's the beauty of technology.  Hmmm.  What if, er, the AI was wrong?  AI is made in our own image.  Sadly, we are not flawless, so AI too will not be flawless, even with machine learning.  We already are worried about how the run-away train of big data has affected our Privacy.  We should not let our imaginations run any more wild in thinking that laws will be created by AI... or should we.  Regardless of the dystopian outlook, there are things that you can do today to ensure your Privacy - using LifeBank to create your own master-file, off the Cloud, because you never know what tomorrow will bring.  Email info@lifebanksystems.com for more details and to place your order... 
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Fed Up With SXSW And TED? Learn The Art Of World-Changing From The Progenitor, Buckminster Fuller

Fed Up With SXSW And TED? Learn The Art Of World-Changing From The Progenitor, Buckminster Fuller | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Late one evening in the winter of 1927, Buckminster Fuller set out to kill himself in frigid Lake Michigan. At thirty-two years old, he was a failure. He had neither job prospects nor savings, and his wife had just given birth to a daughter. A life insurance policy, bought while he was in the Navy, was all that he had to support his family. So Fuller walked down to a deserted stretch of shoreline on the North Side of Chicago. He looked out over the churning water and calculated how long he'd need to swim before succumbing to hypothermia. But as he prepared to jump, he felt a strange resistance, as if he were being lifted, and he heard a stern voice inside his head: "You do not have the right to eliminate yourself. You do not belong to you. You belong to the universe." Then the voice confided that his life had a purpose, which could be fulfilled only by sharing his mind with the world, and that his family would always be provided for, as long as he submitted to his calling.... Book excerpt from "You Belong to the Universe," by Jonathon Keats.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Yeah, Bucky's back for sure

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Decision intelligence and empathy: TEDx Livermore

Decision intelligence and empathy: TEDx Livermore | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

http://www.tedxlivermore.com/news/: "This year’s theme, the economics of empathy, is a highly nuanced theme. It is about how we can use empathy to shape our community when our empathies are in conflict. Literally, we can see all sides of an issue and know that there is no solution that leaves everyone with everything they want. But, because we start with empathy as currency, we try to at least get our community as a whole, and individuals, what they need. "

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Mark your calendar: I'll be speaking June 25 at TEDx Livermore.  More soon.

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Necessary, but not sufficient

Necessary, but not sufficient | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"...no one thing alone is enough: not a great idea like Decision Intelligence or a fantastic initiative like the Silicon Valley Sim Center Instead, we catalyze existing movements, nudge and sway, and put in the hard long hours of pitch after pitch.  I like to think of Jodie Foster’s character in this scene from Contact, going to one funding agent after another with her crazy idea (“a nice presentation, doctor”).  But even she was only necessary, not sufficient."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Necessary, but not sufficient: Innovation is freaking hard, and is about way more than technical issues, especially today.  Ideas, and even technology, are no longer the risk points . It's about catalyzing *existing* movements in communities of practice.

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Stop Measuring Value!

Stop Measuring Value! | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"We all know that brushing our teeth twice a day is a productive action needed to get to dental health, which we value. If we attempted to measure what is of value (dental health) we’d be keeping track of the number of cavities we have. We might even get obsessed about more sophisticated measures involving x-rays. But none of these “measures of value” would drive the essential action to brush twice a day. On the other hand, the simple and humble metric of the number of times we have brushed is very productive in getting us to actually brush. Without even requiring a deep understanding of dental health, this metric gets us to dental health because it drives productive action. In simple terms, it drives results."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

One of my favorite new friends from Banff

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Guesstimate: models for uncertain things

Guesstimate: models for uncertain things | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
A spreadsheet for things that aren't certain
Lorien Pratt's insight:
I wrote a while back that the age of models was ascending as data plateaus.  Guesstimate - currently in beta - offers web-based models that make it easy to visualize uncertainty.  Awesome.
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What Happens When the Surveillance State Becomes an Affordable Gadget?

What Happens When the Surveillance State Becomes an Affordable Gadget? | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"The more complex the system becomes, the more vulnerable it is."

Lorien Pratt's insight:
I am seeing dozens of situations that follow this pattern: complexity + automation = insidious and hidden fragility / vulnerability / unintended consequences.  I think that good systems / decision models are essential to solving these issues at the same speed that the bad guys exploit them.
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