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Simulating Social Complexity: A Handbook (by Bruce Edmonds & Ruth Meyer)

Simulating Social Complexity: A Handbook (Understanding Complex Systems)

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Social systems are among the most complex known. This poses particular problems for those who wish to understand them. The complexity often makes analytic approaches infeasible and natural language approaches inadequate for relating intricate cause and effect. However, individual- and agent-based computational approaches hold out the possibility of new and deeper understanding of such systems.

 Simulating Social Complexity examines all aspects of using agent- or individual-based simulation. This approach represents systems as individual elements having each their own set of differing states and internal processes. The interactions between elements in the simulation represent interactions in the target systems. What makes these elements "social" is that they are usefully interpretable as interacting elements of an observed society. In this, the focus is on human society, but can be extended to include social animals or artificial agents where such work enhances our understanding of human society.

 

This handbook is intended to help in the process of maturation of this new field. It brings together, through the collaborative effort of many leading researchers, summaries of the best thinking and practice in this area and constitutes a reference point for standards against which future methodological advances are judged.

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The Computable City Histories, Technologies, Stories, Predictions. By Michael Batty

The Computable City Histories, Technologies, Stories, Predictions. By Michael Batty | CxBooks | Scoop.it

How computers simulate cities and how they are also being embedded in cities, changing our behavior and the way in which cities evolve.

At every stage in the history of computers and communications, it is safe to say we have been unable to predict what happens next. When computers first appeared nearly seventy-five years ago, primitive computer models were used to help understand and plan cities, but as computers became faster, smaller, more powerful, and ever more ubiquitous, cities themselves began to embrace them. As a result, the smart city emerged. In The Computable City, Michael Batty investigates the circularity of this peculiar evolution: how computers and communications changed the very nature of our city models, which, in turn, are used to simulate systems composed of those same computers.

Batty first charts the origins of computers and examines how our computational urban models have developed and how they have been enriched by computer graphics. He then explores the sequence of digital revolutions and how they are converging, focusing on continual changes in new technologies, as well as the twenty-first-century surge in social media, platform economies, and the planning of the smart city. He concludes by revisiting the digital transformation as it continues to confound us, with the understanding that the city, now a high-frequency twenty-four-hour version of itself, changes our understanding of what is possible.

More at: mitpress.mit.edu

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EPS Grand Challenges: Physics for Society in the Horizon 2050, edited by Carlos Hidalgo

There are many images of science and the activities of scientists. Some would imply that science will eventually reach the limits of knowledge while others create an expectation of endless horizons. Some people would believe that science has or will provide the answers to key open questions that lie ahead, while others experience fear regarding its development. In this book, we will look at all these aspects, going from particles, via atoms, cells, stars, galaxies, our place in the universe, to explore what makes us, human beings, really unique in nature: our ability to imagine and shape the future by making use of the scientific method. The book is an EPS action designed to address the social dimension of science and the grand challenges in physics that will bring radical change to developed societies, raise standards of living at the global scale, and provide basic understanding of nature on the horizon 2050.

Read the full book at: iopscience.iop.org

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Extreme Philosophy: Bold Ideas and a Spirit of Progress, edited by Stephen Hetherington

Extreme Philosophy: Bold Ideas and a Spirit of Progress, edited by Stephen Hetherington | CxBooks | Scoop.it

Philosophy’s value and power are greatly diminished when it operates within a too closely confined professional space. Extreme Philosophy: Bold Ideas and a Spirit of Progress serves as an antidote to the increasing narrowness of the field. It offers readers–including students and general readers–twenty internationally acclaimed philosophers who highlight and defend odd, extreme, or ‘mad’ ideas. The resulting conjectures are often provocative and bold, but always clear and accessible.
Ideas discussed in the book, include:
propaganda need not be irrational
science need not be rational
extremism need not be bad
tax evasion need not be immoral
anarchy need not be uninviting
democracy need not remain as it generally is
humans might have immaterial souls
human minds might have all-but-unlimited powers
knowing might be nothing beyond being correct
space and time might not be ‘out there’ in reality
value might be the foundational part of reality
value might differ in an infinitely repeating reality
reality is One
reality is vague
In brief, the volume pursues adventures in philosophy. This spirit of philosophical risk-taking and openness to new, ‘large’ ideas were vital to philosophy’s ancient origins, and they may also be fertile ground today for philosophical progress.

More at: www.taylorfrancis.com

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The Evolution of Biological Information: How Evolution Creates Complexity, from Viruses to Brains: Christoph Adami

The Evolution of Biological Information: How Evolution Creates Complexity, from Viruses to Brains: Christoph Adami | CxBooks | Scoop.it

Why information is the unifying principle that allows us to understand the evolution of complexity in nature

More than 150 years after Darwin’s revolutionary On the Origin of Species, we are still attempting to understand and explain the amazing complexity of life. Although we now know how evolution proceeds to build complexity from simple ingredients, quantifying this complexity is still a difficult undertaking. In this book, Christoph Adami offers a new perspective on Darwinian evolution by viewing it through the lens of information theory. This novel theoretical stance sheds light on such matters as how viruses evolve drug resistance, how cells evolve to communicate, and how intelligence evolves. By this account, information emerges as the central unifying principle behind all of biology, allowing us to think about the origin of life—on Earth and elsewhere—in a systematic manner.

Adami, a leader in the field of computational biology, first provides an accessible introduction to the information theory of biomolecules and then shows how to apply these tools to measure information stored in genetic sequences and proteins. After outlining the experimental evidence of the evolution of information in both bacteria and digital organisms, he describes the evolution of robustness in viruses; the cooperation among cells, animals, and people; and the evolution of brains and intelligence. Building on extensive prior work in bacterial and digital evolution, Adami establishes that (expanding on Dobzhansky’s famous remark) nothing in biology makes sense except in the light of information. Understanding that information is the foundation of all life, he argues, allows us to see beyond the particulars of our way of life to glimpse what life might be like in other worlds.

Read the full article at: press.princeton.edu

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Scaling deep learning for materials discovery

Scaling deep learning for materials discovery | CxBooks | Scoop.it

Amil Merchant, Simon Batzner, Samuel S. Schoenholz, Muratahan Aykol, Gowoon Cheon & Ekin Dogus Cubuk 
Nature (2023)

Novel functional materials enable fundamental breakthroughs across technological applications from clean energy to information processing1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11. From microchips to batteries and photovoltaics, discovery of inorganic crystals has been bottlenecked by expensive trial-and-error approaches. Concurrently, deep-learning models for language, vision and biology have showcased emergent predictive capabilities with increasing data and computation12,13,14. Here we show that graph networks trained at scale can reach unprecedented levels of generalization, improving the efficiency of materials discovery by an order of magnitude. Building on 48,000 stable crystals identified in continuing studies15,16,17, improved efficiency enables the discovery of 2.2 million structures below the current convex hull, many of which escaped previous human chemical intuition. Our work represents an order-of-magnitude expansion in stable materials known to humanity. Stable discoveries that are on the final convex hull will be made available to screen for technological applications, as we demonstrate for layered materials and solid-electrolyte candidates. Of the stable structures, 736 have already been independently experimentally realized. The scale and diversity of hundreds of millions of first-principles calculations also unlock modelling capabilities for downstream applications, leading in particular to highly accurate and robust learned interatomic potentials that can be used in condensed-phase molecular-dynamics simulations and high-fidelity zero-shot prediction of ionic conductivity.

Read the full article at: www.nature.com

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Elements and Relations: Aspects of a Scientific Metaphysics

Elements and Relations: Aspects of a Scientific Metaphysics | CxBooks | Scoop.it

This textbook is built around the central proposition that systems theory is an attempt to construct an “exact and scientific metaphysics” (an ESM).

Read the full article at: link.springer.com

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The Experience Machine by Andy Clark

The Experience Machine by Andy Clark | CxBooks | Scoop.it

For as long as we’ve studied human cognition, we’ve believed that our senses give us direct access to the world. What we see is what’s really there—or so the thinking goes. But new discoveries in neuroscience and psychology have turned this assumption on its head. What if rather than perceiving reality passively, your mind actively predicts it?

Widely acclaimed philosopher and cognitive scientist Andy Clark unpacks this provocative new theory that the brain is a powerful, dynamic prediction engine, mediating our experience of both body and world. From the most mundane experiences to the most sublime, reality as we know it is the complex synthesis of sensory information and expectation. Exploring its fascinating mechanics and remarkable implications for our lives, mental health, and society, Clark nimbly illustrates how the predictive brain sculpts all human experience. Chronic pain and mental illness are shown to involve subtle malfunctions of our unconscious predictions, pointing the way towards more effective, targeted treatments. Under renewed scrutiny, the very boundary between ourselves and the outside world dissolves, showing that we are as entangled with our environments as we are with our onboard memories, thoughts, and feelings. And perception itself is revealed to be something of a controlled hallucination.

Unveiling the extraordinary explanatory power of the predictive brain, The Experience Machine is a mesmerizing window onto one of the most significant developments in our understanding of the mind.


More at: www.penguinrandomhouse.com

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Superorganism: Toward a New Social Contract for Our Endangered Species by Peter A. Corning

Superorganism: Toward a New Social Contract for Our Endangered Species by Peter A. Corning | CxBooks | Scoop.it

As evidence of our global survival crisis continues to mount, the expression 'too little, too late' comes to mind. We all live in an interdependent world which has an increasingly shared fate. We are participants in an emerging global 'superorganism' that is dependent on close cooperation. Indeed, positive synergy (cooperative effects) has been the key to our evolutionary success as a species. However, our ultimate fate is now in jeopardy. Going forward, we must either create a more effective global society (with collective self-governance) or our species will very likely be convulsed by mass starvation, waves of desperate migrants, and lethal social conflict. The greatest threat we may face is each other, and a regression into tribalism and violent conflict. This Element has a more hopeful prescription for a new global social contract. It is based on the many examples of superorganisms – socially organized species – in the natural world, and in evolution.

More at: www.cambridge.org

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Organisms as Agents of Evolution

Organisms as Agents of Evolution | CxBooks | Scoop.it

Philip C. Ball

Agency – the capacity to make goal-directed changes to one’s self and environment – seems to be a real and general characteristic of living organisms. Yet unlike other general features such as replication and metabolism, we lack widely accepted models or theories of what agency is and how it arises. Do modern biology and evolutionary theory need them? If so, what might they look like?

Read the full book at: www.templeton.org

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End Times by Peter Turchin

End Times by Peter Turchin | CxBooks | Scoop.it

From the pioneering co-founder of cliodynamics, the groundbreaking new interdisciplinary science of history, a big-picture explanation for America’s civil strife and its possible endgames

Peter Turchin, one of the most interesting social scientists of our age, has infused the study of history with approaches and insights from other fields for more than a quarter century. End Times is the culmination of his work to understand what causes political communities to cohere and what causes them to fall apart, as applied to the current turmoil within the United States. 

Back in 2010, when Nature magazine asked leading scientists to provide a ten-year forecast, Turchin used his models to predict that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order circa 2020. The years since have proved his prediction more and more accurate, and End Times reveals why.

The lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied. He calls this process the wealth pump; it’s a world of the damned and the saved. And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. Turchin’s models show that when this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it’s very hard to exit.

In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. As cliodynamics shows us, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture.  That is only one possible end time, and the choice is up to us, but the hour grows late.

More at: www.penguinrandomhouse.com

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Conflicting Models for the Origin of Life

Editor(s):Stoyan K. Smoukov, Joseph Seckbach, Richard Gordon

Conflicting Models for the Origin of Life provides a forum to compare and contrast the many hypotheses that have been put forward to explain the origin of life.

There is a revolution brewing in the field of Origin of Life: in the process of trying to figure out how Life started, many researchers believe there is an impending second creation of life, not necessarily biological. Up-to-date understanding is needed to prepare us for the technological, and societal changes it would bring. Schrodinger’s 1944 “What is life?” included the insight of an information carrier, which inspired the discovery of the structure of DNA. In “Conflicting Models of the Origin of Life” a selection of the world’s experts are brought together to cover different aspects of the research: from progress towards synthetic life – artificial cells and sub-cellular components, to new definitions of life and the unexpected places life could (have) emerge(d). Chapters also cover fundamental questions of how memory could emerge from memoryless processes, and how we can tell if a molecule may have emerged from life. Similarly, cutting-edge research discusses plausible reactions for the emergence of life both on Earth and on exoplanets. Additional perspectives from geologists, philosophers and even roboticists thinking about the origin of life round out this volume. The text is a state-of-the-art snapshot of the latest developments on the emergence of life, to be used both in graduate classes and by citizen scientists.

More at: onlinelibrary.wiley.com

dalmatica's comment, March 5, 2023 11:46 PM
good
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Agents, Networks, Evolution: A Quarter Century of Advances in Complex Systems, edited by Frank Schweitzer

Agents, Networks, Evolution: A Quarter Century of Advances in Complex Systems, edited by Frank Schweitzer | CxBooks | Scoop.it

Scientific progress during the last three decades has greatly profited from our advances in understanding complex systems. Fundamental modeling approaches were considerably improved, particularly agent-based modeling, network science, nonlinear dynamics, and system science. At the same time, these approaches have been applied to and adopted by various scientific disciplines, ranging from physics and chemistry to engineering, molecular biology, economics, and the social sciences.

This book reflects the success of complexity science both from a historical and a modeling perspective. It uses 25 articles from different disciplines, published over 25 years, to demonstrate the power and problems of modeling complex systems.

The book's four parts, Agent-based Models, Network Models, Models of System Dynamics, and Models of Evolution, each provide an informative synopsis of the respective modeling approach. An introductory overview summarizes each approach's essential concepts, addresses the main research directions, and reviews applications in various disciplines. The selection of reprinted publications is motivated by their scientific relevance and methodological contributions to understanding complex phenomena. A chronological list of publications details the development of each modeling approach over the past 25 years.

The e-book is freely accessible for one year from the date of release.

Read the full book at: www.worldscientific.com

dalmatica's comment, March 5, 2023 11:47 PM
nice
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Early Detection of Mental Health Disorders by Social Media Monitoring: The First Five Years of the eRisk Project

Early Detection of Mental Health Disorders by Social Media Monitoring: The First Five Years of the eRisk Project | CxBooks | Scoop.it

Editors: Fabio Crestani, David E. Losada, Javier Parapar
Presents techniques for the early Detection of Mental Health Disorders by Social Media Monitoring

Recent research on eRisk which stands for Early Risk Prediction on the Internet

Presents the best results of the first five years of the eRisk project

Read the full article at: link.springer.com

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Wicked Problems: How to Engineer a Better World, by Guru Madhavan

Wicked Problems: How to Engineer a Better World, by Guru Madhavan | CxBooks | Scoop.it

An ode to systems engineers―whose invisible work undergirds our life―and an exploration of the wicked problems they tackle.

Our world is filled with pernicious problems. How, for example, did novice pilots learn to fly without taking to the air and risking their lives? How should cities process mountains of waste without polluting the environment? Challenges that tangle personal, public, and planetary aspects―often occurring in health care, infrastructure, business, and policy―are known as wicked problems, and they are not going away anytime soon.

In linked chapters focusing on key facets of systems engineering―efficiency, vagueness, vulnerability, safety, maintenance, and resilience―engineer Guru Madhavan illuminates how wicked problems have emerged throughout history and how best to address them in the future. He examines best-known tragedies and lesser-known tales, from the efficient design of battleships to a volcano eruption that curtailed global commerce, and how maintenance of our sanitation systems constitutes tikkun olam, or repair of our world. Braided throughout is the uplifting tale of Edwin Link, an unsung hero who revolutionized aviation with his flight trainer. In Link’s story, Madhavan uncovers a model mindset to engage with wickedness.

An homage to society’s innovators and maintainers, Wicked Problems offers a refreshing vision for readers of all backgrounds to build a better future and demonstrates how engineering is a cultural choice―one that requires us to restlessly find ways to transform society, but perhaps more critically, to care for the creations that already exist.

More at: www.amazon.com

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Modeling Social Behavior: Mathematical and Agent-Based Models of Social Dynamics and Cultural Evolution, by Paul E. Smaldino

Modeling Social Behavior: Mathematical and Agent-Based Models of Social Dynamics and Cultural Evolution, by Paul E. Smaldino | CxBooks | Scoop.it

This book provides a unified, theory-driven introduction to key mathematical and agent-based models of social dynamics and cultural evolution, teaching readers how to build their own models, analyze them, and integrate them with empirical research programs. It covers a variety of modeling topics, each exemplified by one or more archetypal models, and helps readers to develop strong theoretical foundations for understanding social behavior. Modeling Social Behavior equips social, behavioral, and cognitive scientists with an essential tool kit for thinking about and studying complex social systems using mathematical and computational models.

More at: press.princeton.edu

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Systems Medicine: Physiological Circuits and the Dynamics of Disease, by Uri Alon

Systems Medicine: Physiological Circuits and the Dynamics of Disease, by Uri Alon | CxBooks | Scoop.it

Why do we get certain diseases, whereas other diseases do not exist?

In this book, Alon, one of the founders of systems biology, builds a foundation for systems medicine.

Starting from basic laws, the book derives why physiological circuits are built the way they are. The circuits have fragilities that explain specific diseases and offer new strategies to treat them.

By the end, the reader will be able to use simple and powerful mathematical models to describe physiological circuits. The book explores, in three parts, hormone circuits, immune circuits, and aging and age-related disease. It culminates in a periodic table of diseases.

Alon writes in a style accessible to a broad range of readers - undergraduates, graduates, or researchers from computational or biological backgrounds. The level of math is friendly and the math can even be bypassed altogether. For instructors and readers who want to go deeper, the book includes dozens of exercises that have been rigorously tested in the classroom

More at: www.taylorfrancis.com

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A Passion for Cooperation: Adventures of a Wide-Ranging Scientist, By Robert Axelrod

A Passion for Cooperation: Adventures of a Wide-Ranging Scientist, By Robert Axelrod | CxBooks | Scoop.it

A Passion for Cooperation is the exciting autobiography of Robert Axelrod, one of the most acclaimed and wide-ranging scientists of the last fifty years. After being recognized by President Kennedy for being a promising young scientist while in high school, Axelrod built a career dedicated to collaborating with business school professors, international relations scholars, political scientists, computer scientists, and even evolutionary biologists and cancer researchers. Fifty years later, he was honored by President Obama with the National Medal of Science for scientific achievement and leadership and his work has been referred to as the gold standard of interdisciplinary research. 

Yet Axelrod’s autobiography is not just an account of his wide-ranging passion for cooperation. It reveals his struggles to overcome failures and experience the joys of gaining new insights into how to achieve cooperation. A Passion for Cooperation recounts Robert Axelrod’s adventures talking with the leader of the organization Hamas, the Prime Minister of Israel, and the Foreign Minister of Syria. Axelrod also shares stories of being hosted in Kazakhstan by senior Soviet retired generals and visiting China with well-connected policy advisors on issues of military aspects of cyber conflict. Through stories of the difficulties and rewards of interdisciplinary collaborations, readers will discover how Axelrod’s academic and practical work have enriched each other and demonstrated that opportunities for cooperation are much greater than generally thought. 

More at: press.umich.edu

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Evolution "On Purpose" Teleonomy in Living Systems. Edited by Peter A. Corning, Stuart A. Kauffman, Denis Noble, James A. Shapiro, Richard I. Vane-Wright and Addy Pross

Evolution "On Purpose" Teleonomy in Living Systems. Edited by Peter A. Corning, Stuart A. Kauffman, Denis Noble, James A. Shapiro, Richard I. Vane-Wright and Addy Pross | CxBooks | Scoop.it

A unique exploration of teleonomy—also known as “evolved purposiveness”—as a major influence in evolution by a broad range of specialists in biology and the philosophy of science.

The evolved purposiveness of living systems, termed “teleonomy” by chronobiologist Colin Pittendrigh, has been both a major outcome and causal factor in the history of life on Earth. Many theorists have appreciated this over the years, going back to Lamarck and even Darwin in the nineteenth century. In the mid-twentieth century, however, the complex, dynamic process of evolution was simplified into the one-way, bottom-up, single gene-centered paradigm widely known as the modern synthesis. In Evolution “On Purpose,” edited by Peter A. Corning, Stuart A. Kauffman, Denis Noble, James A. Shapiro, Richard I. Vane-Wright, and Addy Pross, some twenty theorists attempt to modify this reductive approach by exploring in depth the different ways in which living systems have themselves shaped the course of evolution.

Evolution “On Purpose” puts forward a more inclusive theoretical synthesis that goes far beyond the underlying principles and assumptions of the modern synthesis to accommodate work since the 1950s in molecular genetics, developmental biology, epigenetic inheritance, genomics, multilevel selection, niche construction, physiology, behavior, biosemiotics, chemical reaction theory, and other fields. In the view of the authors, active biological processes are responsible for the direction and the rate of evolution. Essays in this collection grapple with topics from the two-way “read-write” genome to cognition and decision-making in plants to the niche-construction activities of many organisms to the self-making evolution of humankind. As this collection compellingly shows, and as bacterial geneticist James Shapiro emphasizes, “The capacity of living organisms to alter their own heredity is undeniable.”

More at: mitpress.mit.edu

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Artificial Life Conference Proceedings 2023

Read the full book at: direct.mit.edu

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In a Flight of Starlings, by Giorgio Parisi

In a Flight of Starlings, by Giorgio Parisi | CxBooks | Scoop.it

The world is shaped by complexity. In this enlightening book, Nobel Prize winner Giorgio Parisi guides us through his unorthodox yet exhilarating work to show us how. It all starts with investigating the principles of physics by observing the sophisticated flight patterns of starlings. Studying the movements of these birds, he has realized, proves an illuminating way into understanding complex systems of all kinds - collections of everything from atoms to planets to other animals like ourselves.

Along the way, Parisi reflects on the lessons he's taken from a life in pursuit of scientific truth: the importance of serendipity to the discovery of new ideas, the surprising kinship between physics and other fields of study and the value of science to a thriving society. In so doing, he removes the practice of science from the confines of the laboratory and into the real world. Complexity is all around us - from climate to finance to biology, it offers a unique way of finding order in chaos.

Part elegant scientific treatise, part thrilling intellectual journey, In a Flight of Starlings is an invitation to find wonder in the world around us.

More at: www.penguin.co.uk

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Handbook on the Politics and Governance of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence

Handbook on the Politics and Governance of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence | CxBooks | Scoop.it

Edited by Andrej Zwitter and Oskar Gstrein
Drawing on the theoretical debates, practical applications, and sectoral approaches in the field, this ground-breaking Handbook unpacks the political and regulatory developments in AI and big data governance. Covering the political implications of big data and AI on international relations, as well as emerging initiatives for legal regulation, it provides an accessible overview of ongoing data science discourses in politics, law and governance.

Read the full article at: www.elgaronline.com

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Sleeping Beauties | Book by Andreas Wagner

Sleeping Beauties | Book by Andreas Wagner | CxBooks | Scoop.it

Why do some of nature’s marvels have to wait millions of years for their time in the sun?

Life innovates constantly, producing perfectly adapted species – but there’s a catch.

Many animals and plants eke out seemingly unremarkable lives. Passive, constrained, modest, threatened. Then, in a blink of evolutionary time, they flourish spectacularly. Once we start to look, these ‘sleeping beauties’ crop up everywhere. But why?

Looking at the book of life, from apex predators to keystone crops, and informed by his own cutting-edge experiments, renowned scientist Andreas Wagner demonstrates that innovations can come frequently and cheaply to nature, well before they are needed. We have found prehistoric bacteria that harbour the remarkable ability to fight off 21st-century antibiotics. And human history fits the pattern too, as life-changing technologies are invented only to be forgotten, languishing in the shadows before they finally take off.

In probing the mysteries of these sleeping beauties, Wagner reveals a crucial part of nature’s rich and strange tapestry.

Read the full article at: www.simonandschuster.com

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SFI Press reissues Complexity, Entropy, and the Physics of Information

SFI Press reissues Complexity, Entropy, and the Physics of Information | CxBooks | Scoop.it

The workshop proceedings, Complexity, Entropy and the Physics of Information, were originally published in 1990, but contain many ideas that are still relevant today. In early 2023, the SFI Press issued a reprint of the proceedings as part of its mission to make important works of complexity science affordable and accessible. This re-publication also includes a new foreword by Lloyd. 

Read the full article at: www.santafe.edu

dalmatica's comment, March 5, 2023 11:46 PM
super
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End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration - by Turchin, Peter

End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration - by Turchin, Peter | CxBooks | Scoop.it

From the pioneering co-founder of cliodynamics, the ground-breaking new interdisciplinary science of history, a big-picture explanation for America's civil strife and its possible endgames

Peter Turchin, one of the most interesting social scientists of our age, has infused the study of history with approaches and insights from other fields for over a quarter century. End Times is the culmination of his work to understand what causes political communities to cohere and what causes them to fall apart, as applied to the current turmoil within the United States.

Back in 2010, when Nature magazine asked leading scientists to provide a ten-year forecast, Turchin used his models to predict that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order ca 2020. The years since have proved his prediction more and more accurate, and End Times reveals why.

The lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: when the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. Since the start of the industrial era, this imbalance has been caused not by excessive population growth but by phase shifts of technological innovation and globalization.

More at: www.amazon.com

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The Primacy of Doubt: From Quantum Physics to Climate Change, How the Science of Uncertainty Can Help Us Understand Our Chaotic World, by Tim Palmer

The Primacy of Doubt: From Quantum Physics to Climate Change, How the Science of Uncertainty Can Help Us Understand Our Chaotic World, by Tim Palmer | CxBooks | Scoop.it

Learn how the tools that enabled us to overcome the uncertainty of the weather will enable us to find new answers to modern science's most pressing questions.

Why does your weather app say “There’s a 10% chance of rain” instead of “It will be sunny tomorrow”? In large part this is due to the insight of Tim Palmer, who made uncertainty essential to the study of weather and climate. Now he wants to apply it to how we study everything else.

In The Primacy of Doubt, Palmer argues that embracing the mathematics of uncertainty is vital to understanding ourselves and the universe around us. Whether we want to predict climate change or market crashes, understand how the brain is able to outpace supercomputers, or find a theory that links quantum and cosmological physics, Palmer shows how his vision of mathematical uncertainty provides new insights into some of the deepest problems in science. The result is a revolution—one that shows that power begins by embracing what we don’t know.

More at: www.basicbooks.com

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