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How to Beat the Odds at Judging Risk

How to Beat the Odds at Judging Risk | Creativity & Decision-Making |
Fast, clear feedback is crucial to gauging probabilities; for lessons, consult weather forecasters and professional gamblers.


"Most of us have to estimate probabilities every day. Whether as a trader betting on the price of a stock, a lawyer gauging a witness's reliability or a doctor pondering the accuracy of a diagnosis, we spend much of our time—consciously or not—guessing about the future based on incomplete information. Unfortunately, decades of research indicate that humans are not very good at this."


Advice from the article on how to you improve your skills at estimating risks: (1) Assign numerical quanitites, like weather forecasters saying there is a 60% chance of rain. (2) Track your performance. Was your guess right or wrong? (3) Then use the feedback to improve your estimating skills.

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Scooped by Katherine Stevens!

How Three Companies Innovate

How Three Companies Innovate | Creativity & Decision-Making |

At Google, Entrepreneurs Have to Think Bigger

"Google provides resources — infrastructure, money, time and people — but most important, a vision that tests most entrepreneurs to think bigger than they ever have before." 


At General Electric, A Culture of Risk

"we literally measure employees based on their capacity to take risks in championing ideas, learn from the experience and drive improvement." 


At DreamWorks, Permission to Switch Gears 
"We feel it is critical to empower employees to take risks, move boundaries and test the limits of their imagination. Simply put: individuals must be allowed to fail in order to innovate."

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