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Why Rational People Can't Succeed as Economic Forecasters

Why Rational People Can't Succeed as Economic Forecasters | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
Historian Walter Friedman on the pioneers of forecasting, and why we haven't gotten better at it.

 

We’re all used to economic forecasts. We’re also used to them being wrong. But there was a time when forecasts were new and exciting, and people were genuinely surprised when they didn’t pan out. This was during the first decades of the previous century, an era that Harvard Business School historian Walter Friedman chronicles in his new book Fortune Tellers: The Story of America’s First Economic Forecasters.

John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

Economics isn't science and therefore not rational.

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Building a more resilient economy with Bay Bucks - KALW

Building a more resilient economy with Bay Bucks - KALW | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it

Lub has tried all kinds of complementary and alternative currencies through the years. He’s an old hand at bartering – he once traded jewelry for an entire house. If you order from Lub’s website, there’s an option at checkout for wholesale, retail, or barter exchange.


Via jean lievens
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John Lasschuit ®™'s comment, May 19, 2013 11:40 AM
I fully agree!
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From basic income to social dividend: sharing the value of common resources | Share The World's Resources (STWR)

From basic income to social dividend: sharing the value of common resources | Share The World's Resources (STWR) | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
It’s time to broaden the debate on how to fund a universal basic income by including options for sharing resource rents, which is a model that can be applied internationally to reform unjust economic systems, reduce extreme poverty and protect the global commons.
John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

I really believe in a Universal Basic Income (#UBI) for those countries that have the resources to implement it. Which are almost all Western developed countries. 
By Rajesh Makwana

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Universal Basic Income is the Hottest HR Technology

Universal Basic Income is the Hottest HR Technology | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
A friend of mine just asked, “What HR technology excites you most? What’s new? What’s hot?” Those are complicated questions. The easy answer is to send you to analysts and advisors who tell me that
John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

By Laurie Ruettimann. When people ask me what HR technology or program excites me most, I tell them: universal basic income. It’s a defined and guaranteed sum of money given by a government to keep people above the poverty line. #UBI

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That’s Cognitive Capitalism, baby. — Medium

That’s Cognitive Capitalism, baby. — Medium | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it

We often call it #sharingeconomyon-demand economy; sometimes we use other definitions but, in reality, all these trends are co-generated by an endless series of collisions between socio-technological trend that we can try to classify in two different macro-groups.

John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

By Simone Cicero. The future of work and organisations.

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The Economics of Personal Data

The Economics of Personal Data | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
The Economics of Personal Data All kinds of organisations are collecting data about us all of the time. Companies, governments and other organisations want
John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

By Paula Newton. “The growing volumes of data, the lack of institutional capacities and the speed of change have outstripped existing policy frameworks.”

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(Future 9) : New Economic Philosophy: "Network Economies of Abundance" by Melanie Swan

(Future 9) : New Economic Philosophy: "Network Economies of Abundance" by Melanie Swan | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
Schematic of Fig. 1 downloadable from: :  ((This article reposted here was published earlier in Sept 14:  and in "the Broader Perspective" blog on September 13, 2015:   A New Kind of Economic Philo...
John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

By Melanie Swna. Rebolgged by Jaap van Till

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‘Neucoin Will Have More Consumers Using It Than Bitcoin within One Year’ - Founder

‘Neucoin Will Have More Consumers Using It Than Bitcoin within One Year’ - Founder | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
NeuCoin (NEU), a cryptocurrency specifically designed to aid the implementation of online microtransactions and tipping within online products and services, finally launched September 23
John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

By Erin Lace.To make NeuCoin a stable and secured currency, team and angel investors have committed themselves to respect strict conditions for resale of coins. Terms of re-sales are strictly limited to a period of 5 years (for example, NeuCoin owners will be able to sell only 2% of its coins a month during the first year, and 6% on the sixth year).

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Economists Vs. Economics

Economists Vs. Economics | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it

Ever since the late nineteenth century, when economics, increasingly embracing mathematics and statistics, developed scientific pretensions, its practitioners have been accused of a variety of sins. The charges – including hubris, neglect of social goals beyond incomes, excessive attention to formal techniques, and failure to predict major economic developments such as financial crises – have usually come from outsiders, or from a heterodox fringe. But lately it seems that even the field’s leaders are unhappy.

John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

By Dani Rodrik. Richard Thaler, a distinguished behavioral economist at the University of Chicago, has taken the profession to task for ignoring real-world behavior in favor of models that assume people are rational optimizers. And finance professor Luigi Zingales, also at the University of Chicago, has charged that his fellow finance specialists have led society astray by overstating the benefits produced by the financial industry.

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Ivon Prefontaine's curator insight, January 26, 4:17 PM

Economy comes from the Greek word oikos which means household. A good economy is one that is cared for and tended to much like a good household and suggests something local happens.

 

Wendell Berry and Marc Anielisksi write about these etymological roots. What does that mean for education? Dewey and Whitehead suggested that education is about the present time and place. There is a sense of appreciation for what happens in the space we share with others, an immedicacy.

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Interview: Volgens Paul Verhaeghe wordt alles beter als we autoriteit niet langer als vies woord zien

Interview: Volgens Paul Verhaeghe wordt alles beter als we autoriteit niet langer als vies woord zien | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
Psycholoog en psychoanalyticus Paul Verhaeghe gaf in zijn vorige boek Identiteit (2012) een scherpe, maar zwartgallige diagnose van een op competitie gerichte samenleving waarin psychologische ziektes op de loer liggen. In september komt zijn nieuwe boek uit: Autoriteit. Gastcorrespondent Pepijn van Eeden zocht hem op en ontdekte dat Verhaeghe tege
John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

Interview door Rob WIjnberg met Paul Verhaeghe wiens ideëen helemaal niet zo slecht zijn. Het zijn in ieder geval concrete, geloofwaardige en reëele veranderingen die hij voorstelt.

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Should We Redesign Capitalism to Address Our Jobless Future? - Singularity HUB

Should We Redesign Capitalism to Address Our Jobless Future? - Singularity HUB | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it

There are more net jobs in the world today than ever before, after hundreds of years of technological innovation and hundreds of years of people predicting the death of work. The logic on this topic is crystal clear. Because of that, the contrary view is necessarily religious in nature, and, as we all know, there’s no point in arguing about religion.”


John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

For instance: the unconditional or universal basisincome would fit. 

By Vivek Wadhwa. 

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See Ya Later, Capitalism — the Collaborative Economy Is Taking Over — Backchannel — Medium

See Ya Later, Capitalism — the Collaborative Economy Is Taking Over — Backchannel — Medium | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
Zipcar’s founder says why the Peer ecosystem will tap incredible abundance
John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

In the new collaborative economy, sharing and networking assets, like platforms, car seats and bedrooms, will always deliver more value faster.

By Robin Chase.

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Why automation means we need a new economic model

Why automation means we need a new economic model | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
A future of unlimited production by few, for consumption by whoever can afford it, is a recipe for economic and social collapse, Robert Reich writes.
John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

By Robert Reich. Redistribution of wealth. An Unconditional BasicIncome would work.

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After Robots Take Our Jobs, This Is What the Economy Will Look Like

After Robots Take Our Jobs, This Is What the Economy Will Look Like | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it

Imagine a world where robots perform the vast majority of our jobs. Food is factory-farmed by automated machines and delivered to us by fleets of drones and self-driving trucks. Our houses are built by giant, roving 3-D printers. We're free to simply pursue our passions and explore. Now ask yourself: How is anyone going to make any money?

For many futurists and economic theorists, the answer is a "basic income," a wage you receive from the government just for being human.

The idea isn't as far-fetched as it sounds. 

Imagine a world where humans are paid just for being alive.

John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

By Jack Smith IV - "Even if you're not working a blue-collar gig, you could be affected, because automation has the potential to damage"

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Het Rijnland Model anders bekeken

Het Rijnland Model anders bekeken | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
In 1991 introduceerde de Fransman Michel Albert (1930-2015) het begrip Rijnland Model in zijn spraakmakende boek ‘Capitalisme contre Capitalisme’. Na het vallen van de Muur in 1989 viel het hem op dat zich twee vormen van kapitalisme ontwikkelden: een Europese (landen in het stroomgebied van de Rijn) en een Amerikaanse variant (Angelsaksisch Model). Je ziet het pas als je het door hebt. Dit is typisch zo’n geval. In dit artikel gaan we vooral in op het meest essentiële verschil tussen de beide varianten binnen de organisatiekunde. Belangrijk is dat je een weloverwogen keuze maakt en niet ergens stuck in the middle blijft hangen.
John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

Jaap Peters over Rijnlands,Holocracy, LEAN en Semco. Bij Rijnlanders is de organisatie in handen van de vakmensen zelf en die op hun beurt worden ondersteund door een goed geolied ondersteunend apparaat (‘de achterkant’).

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Finland: Universal Basic Income and deregulation — Medium

Finland: Universal Basic Income and deregulation — Medium | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it

The Government pursues a deregulatory agenda in conjunction it has drawn up plans to pay every adult citizen a basic income of €800 each month. Under proposals drafted by the Finnish Social Insurance Institution (Kela), the tax-free payments would replace all other benefit payments, and would be paid to all adults regardless of whether or not they receive any other income.

John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

By Andrew Brady. It is estimated to cost Finland €46.7 billion per year

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List of My Gurus and NewSophers

List of My Gurus and NewSophers | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
My personal list of Gurus consist of wonderful teachers and visionaries who continue to spread light and life-energy each day for me, and I hope for you too. I call them my NewSophers (= New Philosophers)   They are the present day likes of: John the Baptist, Rumi, Kahlil Gibran, Pytagoras, Galileo, Giordano Bruno, Joan…
John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

Wow. I'm trully honered. And it's a real pleasant surprise to me. Thanks Jaap van Till!

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A $20 trillion rock could turn Planetary Resources into the richest company on Earth | Impact Lab

A $20 trillion rock could turn Planetary Resources into the richest company on Earth | Impact Lab | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
Amun 3554 is a little more than a mile wide and it's one of the smallest M-class (metal-bearing) asteroids yet discovered. Unless it ever decides to smash
John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

The new form of mining. Very lucrative. Could make the miners the richests companies on earth for a long time. A Mega trillion dollar source of metals.

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(Future 8) Fractanomics - The Issue of Scale in the Network Economy (repost from my 1997 version)

(Future 8) Fractanomics - The Issue of Scale in the Network Economy (repost from my 1997 version) | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it

Let’s face it, most success seem to migrate to those people or companies who already are very popular. In Holland we have a saying that ‘the devil shits on the largest shitheap’, meaning that the rich get richer all the time. The Bible also mentions the inequality of the way people use their ‘talents’ over the years.

A more recent example of this phenomenon is the very wide scale of visitor frequency of WWW pages [1]. Some popular pages have millions (and growing) of hits a day and others have only a few. Success seems to attract success, which can result in growth. Whatever the feelings of unfairness and fears of market dominance these inequalities may raise, it looks very interesting to take an objective closer look at what mechanisms may be behind this phenomenon.

John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

#Fractanomics. Still relevant. By Jaap van Till.

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Solving Problems With Collective Intelligence – Towards an Internet of Thinkers?

Solving Problems With Collective Intelligence – Towards an Internet of Thinkers? | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
How can technology that we are able to build with today’s tools help us to solve the big problems of individuals, organizations, and the world at large? More specifically: How can we use the internet in the best way to improve our collective problem-solving capabilities? Questions like these don’t seem to be asked very often, perhaps because people usually focus on specific problems, rather than general problem-solving in its own right.
John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

By Michael Hrenka. Very interesting article with a lot of ideas to come to an internet of thinkers.

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A Universal Basic Income Is The Bipartisan Solution To Poverty We've Been Waiting For

A Universal Basic Income Is The Bipartisan Solution To Poverty We've Been Waiting For | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
What if the government simply paid everyone enough so that no one was poor? It's an insane idea that's gaining an unlikely alliance of supporters.
John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

By Ben Schiller. Even a modest amount had incredible effects on people's savings, economic status, health—so people felt in control of their lives.

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The sharing economy could end capitalism – but that's not all

The sharing economy could end capitalism – but that's not all | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
The sharing economy could bring about the end of capitalism: that’s the provocative claim made by economic journalist Paul Mason. But research indicates that it actually has many possible futures.
John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

By Chris Martin.  Consumption 2.0 and new ways of working.

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aml_think's curator insight, August 1, 2015 9:04 AM

By Chris Martin.  Consumption 2.0 and new ways of working.

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De laatste dagen van het kapitalisme

De laatste dagen van het kapitalisme | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it

n zijn boek ‘Postcapitalism’ kondigt Paul Mason, redacteur economie bij de Britse televisie-zender Channel 4, een nieuw tijdperk aan voorbij het kapitalisme dat op zijn laatste benen loopt. Anders dan de constante voorspellingen van traditioneel links, zullen de kapitalistische structuren volgens Mason echter niet afgebroken worden door de arbeidersklasse.

John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

Een nieuw tijdperk: postkapitalisme. Impressie van het boek van Paul Mason.

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Bitcoin is the world’s most dangerous idea — Medium

Bitcoin is the world’s most dangerous idea — Medium | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete. …
John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

Embrace the possibilities of the bitcoin #blockchain. It’s Digital Darwinism: adapt or die. By Sander Duivestein.

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Why is this Dutch city giving residents free money?

Why is this Dutch city giving residents free money? | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it
Starting this fall, the Dutch city of Utrecht will begin an ambitious yearlong experiment: giving monthly money to numerous people already on welfare.
John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

Unconditional #BasicIncome. By Chris Weller. 

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(NP9) Engines for the New Power: The Four Network Effects, version April 19

(NP9) Engines for the New Power: The Four Network Effects, version April 19 | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it

Everything wants to be connected“, is the famous ‘Renan Law’ of my friend and colleague Sheldon Renan. But, why does everything in the universe want that? What is this self-interest or incentive to connect? And what does one do after the technical connection? On how many levels and how strongly must we connect to achieve meaningful cooperation? And, what is even more difficult, to achieve cooperation between people with very different backgrounds?

John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

Says Jaap van Till - Connectivist.  Van Till’s Law for the value of COOPERATION & COLLABORATION

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The Gift Economy: The Days When More For You Is Also More For Me

The Gift Economy: The Days When More For You Is Also More For Me | Cooperative capitalism | Scoop.it

“Gift economics was the basis for exchange practiced by many cultures around the world until the creation of money, even in the West up to the Middle Ages.”

John Lasschuit ®™'s insight:

Article written by Paula Newton and Maria Fonseca.The fantastic promise of the Gift Economy, is how it aims to integrates humans back to nature. With the gift economy, the world could eventually be a better place.

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