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Research: Risk of a Systemic Financial Crisis in China Still Manageable in 2013

Research: Risk of a Systemic Financial Crisis in China Still Manageable in 2013 | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
Research: Risk of a Systemic Financial Crisis in China Still Manageable in 2013 http://t.co/9G8m8XqRqS #forexnews
David G Wilson's insight:

A BOLD claim...so please tell the world HOW??? I remain to be convinced and am open to persuasive arguments.

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Crisis Management Preparedness and Resilience | Towers Watson

Crisis Management Preparedness and Resilience | Towers Watson | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it

 

Towers Watson provide the answers BUT NOT THE SOLUTION [www.rate-a-business.com]: "Preparedness and resilience are critical features of crisis risk management, and understanding the nature of the risk in detail is vital to ensuring appropriate measures. While it is essential that a company anticipate or take measures to prevent a crisis, it is also important to prepare robust measures to respond and recover should an incident occur"

 

 

http://t.co/0HchgFxiBF

David G Wilson's insight:

Business System Resilience CANNOT be assessed subjectively! Only Ontonix can provide the means by which the resilience of systems and networks of sub-systems or processes can be quantified. http://wp.me/p16h8c-1z6

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Regulation, Capital Concerns Top Insurance Worries - Wall Street Journal (blog)

Regulation, Capital Concerns Top Insurance Worries - Wall Street Journal (blog) | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
Economic Times Regulation, Capital Concerns Top Insurance Worries Wall Street Journal (blog) “A focus on capital management and regulations is familiar territory for insurance companies and therefore the least surprising finding in our survey,”...
David G Wilson's insight:

INSURERS AS SOURCES OF SYSTEMIC RISK: An industry that can't establish 'causal relationships' within its OWN systems has no chance of identifying or addressing THE issues that cost them more than customer claims, affect their ability to build RESILIENCE into their own portfolios without their customers (and partners) becoming, measurably, more resilient..."A survey of insurance companies worldwide shows many see an increasing regulatory burden as being one of the their biggest challenges over the next several years, along with capital management issues, the impact of social media and the adoption of big data and other technologies"

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UK regulators leave banking at risk of another crash - The Guardian

UK regulators leave banking at risk of another crash - The Guardian | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
The Guardian
UK regulators leave banking at risk of another crash
The Guardian
The Bank of England's financial policy committee (FPC) said that the target should be 7% of risk-weighted assets under Basel III definitions.
David G Wilson's insight:

Co-incidence, collusion or incompetence?: Government officials have identified far too closely with the distorted, self-interested worldview of global banking executives. The result is great peril for the rest of us...

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EBN - Hailey Lynne McKeefry - Supply Chain Complexity Expands Risk

Potential risk is part of nearly every aspect of the supply chain. Deciding where to focus is becoming increasingly important.
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A room full of mirrors - cycan

A room full of mirrors - cycan | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
In business and life there are increasing levels of paradox and complexity - how are your managing? http://t.co/vJ8gnmgqJ3
David G Wilson's insight:

One paradox is that success can breed complacency. But why change something that works? The reality is that change is inevitable and occurs unnoticed. If you are not changing, then there is a strong probability that you are diminishing. A basic natural law is that if something is not growing, then it is decaying.

 
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General ignorance:: accident or design?

General ignorance:: accident or design? | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
I’m sure that there are those conspiracy theorists who would suggest that this is no accident. I’m not so sure. Although I could be easily persuaded that leaders of the prevailing culture – some of...
David G Wilson's insight:

Layering technological and human processes, legislative and regulatory requirements, instead of integrating and aligning them, is one sure-fire way of  increasing risk as well as hurting the effectiveness and profitability of a business.

 
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Innovation:: managing complexity & reducing risk [Design News]

Innovation:: managing complexity & reducing risk [Design News] | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
If you are in the business of making money based upon the ability of another party to avoid financial loss, then your own ability to identify the properties that distinguish 'good risk from bad' is...
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Ontonix - Complex Systems Management, Business Risk Management

Ontonix has established a radically innovative complexity-based approach to understanding and managing risk. Excessive complexity is a formidable source of exposure and vulnerability hence it must be measured and monitored.
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Business Insurance:: ISO 31000 should we believe the hype?

Business Insurance:: ISO 31000 should we believe the hype? | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
If you only rate and manage according to projections of the future based upon the frequency and outcomes of past events, RM is unable to identify and address known sources of risk. Events aren't just probable but plausible (unforseeable) or possible: foreseeable but unseen...because assumption and prediction have become the accepted (but erroneous) substitutes for more detailed analysis
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Shared Value: from vicious circle to virtuous cycle

Shared Value: from vicious circle to virtuous cycle | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
A big part of the problem lies with companies themselves, which remain trapped in an outdated approach to value creation that has emerged over the past few decades. They continue to view value crea...
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Operational Risk Management...: Business Resilience: Supply Chain Risk to National Security...

The risk of your supplier's "Supply Chain" may have consequences far beyond the bottom line at the next shareholders meeting. It could mean the difference between having a resilient economy or a devastating asymmetric attack on the homeland.
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Big Data Needs a Big Theory to Go with It: Scientific American

Big Data Needs a Big Theory to Go with It: Scientific American | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
Our traditional approaches to these problems are often qualitative and disjointed and lead to unintended consequences. To bring scientific rigor to the challenges of our time, we need to develop a deeper understanding of complexity itself.
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Resilience:: foundation for a sustainable model

Resilience:: foundation for a sustainable model | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
"What is needed is fundamental and revolutionary change – the kind that causes the management world, whether private or public, to take note and acknowledge that managing risk is the key to surviva...
David G Wilson's insight:

Even if the Global Consultancies, to whom Global and major Corporates tend to defer for ‘guidance’ on such matters, possessed the tools and quantitative justification that Ontonix can provide – they DO NOT – how many organisations can afford a firm like PwC &/or an in-house resource to enable them to anticipate and adapt?


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Ontonix - Complex Systems Management, Business Risk Management

Ontonix - Complex Systems Management, Business Risk Management | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
WHAT IS COMPLEXITY?
Complexity, just like for example energy, is a natural property of every system. It is defined as a function of structureand  uncertainty.  Humans instinctively try to stay away from highly complex scenarios because of one fundamental reason – high complexity implies a capacity to deliver surprising behavior. Since complexity is a function of entropy, it is measured in bits. Complexity is an unusual function. It combines two "antagonistic" components which in Nature tend to oppose each other. Structure attempts to persist in the face of the erosive action of entropy. Our complexity metric blends them together
David G Wilson's insight:

Want to know more about YOUR business? Try www.rate-a-business.com for FREE

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Bank Of England Warns Banks Worldwide About Risks In Steep And Abrupt ... - International Business Times

Bank Of England Warns Banks Worldwide About Risks In Steep And Abrupt ... - International Business Times | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
International Business Times
Bank Of England Warns Banks Worldwide About Risks In Steep And Abrupt ...
David G Wilson's insight:

Banks as 'superspreaders' of systemic risk..."Financial institutions and markets are also vulnerable to an abrupt rise in global interest rates”...because it is their already hard-pressed business and personal customers who have to find the funds! Measurable RESILIENCE is the only course: www.rate-a-business.com

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Ontonix - Complex Systems Management, Business Risk Management

Ontonix - Complex Systems Management, Business Risk Management | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
Ontonix has established a radically innovative complexity-based approach to understanding and managing risk. Excessive complexity is a formidable source of exposure and vulnerability hence it must be measured and monitored.
David G Wilson's insight:

Recently performed research indicates that complexity may become a new factor that can influence stock returns. Our results show that among five plausible measures, three measures (size, complexity and momentum) stand out as the factors that can influence stock returns...

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Complexity Rising: From Human Beings to Human C...

Complexity Rising: From Human Beings to Human C... | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
The New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI) is an independent educational and research institution dedicated to advancing the study of complex systems.
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Complexity: “Cholesterol for business”

Complexity: “Cholesterol for business” | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
If you don’t test for it you don’t know if it is doing damage to the vital inter-connections upon which your system is dependent? By the time that the outward signs show themselves irreparable dama...
David G Wilson's insight:

“…in its beginning it is easy to cure, but hard to recognize; whereas, after a time, not having been detected and treated at the first, it becomes easy to recognize but impossible to cure.”

- Niccolo Machievelli

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Business Change | Get "fit for randomness" [with Ontonix UK] | Page 4

Business Change | Get "fit for randomness" [with Ontonix UK] | Page 4 | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
Posts about Business Change written by David G Wilson
David G Wilson's insight:

When confronted with complexity for the first time, many managers say “Aha, yes, I see…” – and then rush to tackle the issues using their conventional management tools. This is rather like the physicist seeing quantum mechanics and then simply applying their well-trusted (and inappropriate) Newtonian tools, or the naturalist discovering a fundamentally uncontrollable beast and saying “well, once we’ve got it under control we’ll be able to make sense of it”. This is not only the wrong approach, it’s the wrong kind of approach. 

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Complexity, risk, uncertainty and change

Complexity, risk, uncertainty and change | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
It is the number, nature and integrity of these multi-scalar, dynamic, interactions that are the sources of strength (enabling performance greater than the sum of the parts). The ability to disting...
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Why We Shouldn't Be Surprised That Managers Don't Embrace Complexity

Why We Shouldn't Be Surprised That Managers Don't Embrace Complexity | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
Seek simplicity, but distrust it.
David G Wilson's insight:

There is no evidence that working with simple, understandable elements gives us any more control, only perhaps the illusion of control.

So another thing that managers will have to accept is that their job is not about nodes, but about networks.  Just because they are adept at managing entities doesn’t mean they understand the interactions between them.

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What if “counterintuitive” is THE mark of a leader?

What if “counterintuitive” is THE mark of a leader? | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
What if this is the new normal? Just because we enjoyed a prolonged period of growth and prosperity it certainly does not mean that this is how the future will be!!! It is like dismissing Quantum Physics in favour of the Newtonian variety simply because one is much (much) easier understood and intuitively correct, than the other.
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AIG, GE and Pru given risk controls - FT.com

AIG, GE and Pru given risk controls - FT.com | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
I have 'discussed' the differences in the perspective on the role of insurers in systemic risk. As far as I am aware in UK the (somewhat naive) stance is that insurers are not 'systemically important'. I have yet to hear a credible counter to my assertion that commercial insurers can act as 'hubs' or 'superspreaders' of systemic risk. “If a firm were to get into material financial distress what are the impacts of the distress on counterparties, on markets, on the services they provide in the financial system?”
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Advances in Project Management Series: The Complexity Dialogues: ‘Complicated’ and ‘Complex’ – the management difference - Project Management World Journal

Advances in Project Management Series: The Complexity Dialogues: ‘Complicated’ and ‘Complex’ – the management difference - Project Management World Journal | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
Complexity increases exponentially against unpredictability, and it demands a ‘Second Order’ management approach – applying systems thinking, experiential learning, appropriate contracting and most of all, flexible and courageous leadership. http://t.co/YhaD7G0vZj #pmot #complexity
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