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Resilience:: foundation for a sustainable model

Resilience:: foundation for a sustainable model | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
"What is needed is fundamental and revolutionary change – the kind that causes the management world, whether private or public, to take note and acknowledge that managing risk is the key to surviva...
David G Wilson's insight:

Even if the Global Consultancies, to whom Global and major Corporates tend to defer for ‘guidance’ on such matters, possessed the tools and quantitative justification that Ontonix can provide – they DO NOT – how many organisations can afford a firm like PwC &/or an in-house resource to enable them to anticipate and adapt?


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Can Complexity Thinking Fix Capitalism?

Can Complexity Thinking Fix Capitalism? | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
Can Complexity Thinking Advance Management and Fix Capitalism?
David G Wilson's insight:

"An intense effort at regulating the banks has side-stepped the root cause—a lack of transparency—and instead has tried to build fences around the problem. But fences won’t help in the case of a global financial meltdown: the amounts of money involved are just too large. If we want to avoid an even larger meltdown in future, the only solution is to have transparency on what the banks are up to. It’s possible that complexity thinkers like Mark Buchanan may be able to helpdevise mechanisms that constitute a step towards the needed transparency. But the key requirement here is political will to insist on transparency, not the modelling of complexity science"

http://wp.me/p16h8c-1tK

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Ontonix S.r.l.: Beyond Pre-Crisis Analytics

Ontonix S.r.l.: Beyond Pre-Crisis Analytics | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it

Every time you do something to data you destroy some of the information it contains. But data is expensive. We have developed innovative model-free technology that doesn’t destroy information. In fact, our approach emulates the way the brain works when you actually look at data. By transforming raw data into structure we also achieve an unprecedented degree of synthesis.

David G Wilson's insight:

SUPERIOR BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE = SURVIVAL

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Ontonix S.r.l.: Complexity Profiling and Causality

Ontonix S.r.l.: Complexity Profiling and Causality | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it

Complexity is a measure of how much information a system “contains” and how much this information is structured. One could simply sum up the Shannon entropies of each variable and conclude that this is the total amount of information in a system. However, because variables can be correlated, they give rise to structure. Structure means the system can “do more” and, potentially, perform new functions. Structure is present everywhere in Nature.

David G Wilson's insight:

The potential to track causality through identification of 'Causal Relationships' offers insight where an early warning can serve as a means to prevent a potentially major loss.

 

Invaluable insight for carriers of financial and insurance risks where the causal relationship between its own profitability and risk profile is apparent...so, WHY, if loss prevention is achievable, are those charged with the responsibility to underwrite such risks, 'content' with conventional wisdom and a limited 'risk horizon' when:

 

AN INFORMATIONAL ADVANTAGE CAN CREATE A SIGNIFICANT COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE!? 

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Ontonix S.r.l.: A Dynamic Look at the Eurozone.

Ontonix S.r.l.: A Dynamic Look at the Eurozone. | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it

Just click on any country and move the mouse. 

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Ontonix S.r.l.: Making Predictions Based on Murphy's Laws

Ontonix S.r.l.: Making Predictions Based on Murphy's Laws | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
David G Wilson's insight:
When given the choice, the simpler solution is the preferable one.


This is why an experienced engineer will seek a simple solution to a design problem. This is also why a portfolio of lower complexity will exhibit a better degree of risk diversification than a more complex one.

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Ontonix S.r.l.: Visual Analytics and Cognitive Computing - Ontonix Beats IBM

Ontonix S.r.l.: Visual Analytics and Cognitive Computing - Ontonix Beats IBM | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
David G Wilson's insight:

The method of "Visual Analytics" has been pioneered by Ontonix over a decade ago when we introduced and patented (in 2005) our model-free technique of data processing which actually mimics the human brain. The method doesn't use conventional mathematics or math models - it just "sees data" and extracts workable conclusions and knowledge from it...

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What is Resilience? Why is it Important in a Turbulent Economy

What is Resilience? Why is it Important in a Turbulent Economy | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it

The concept of resilience of a corporation - which today may be measured based on the technology developed by Ontonix - is crucial because our economy is unstable, turbulent, and most importantly, punctuated by shocks. It is difficult to imagine, in the face of galloping globalization, that these fluctuations and shocks would become progressively less intense and severe... 


business resilience is a new and fundamental KPI
David G Wilson's insight:

The age of overpaying to Financial Institutions for inferior products and services – particularly those firms whose raison detre is to strip customers of promised value in order to fund excessively complex, over-remunerated and inflexible infrastructures – MUST BE NEARING AN END! http://wp.me/p16h8c-BA

 
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Ontonix S.r.l.: How To Transform a Set of Curves Into One

Ontonix S.r.l.: How To Transform a Set of Curves Into One | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
How To Transform a Set of Curves Into One (using complexity) http://t.co/4esdkbe5R9
David G Wilson's insight:

No matter how many read-outs or KPI's there are for a system the task of management is simplified by operating with a single 'Complexity measurement', as a means to manage resilience  

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Ontonix S.r.l.: Conventional Ratings Versus Resilience Rating

Ontonix S.r.l.: Conventional Ratings Versus Resilience Rating | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
David G Wilson's insight:

In a turbulent regime, a fundamental characteristic of a business is its resilience, or the capacity to face shocks or sudden and extreme events (known as Black Swans). Because our global economy will be characterized by increasingly frequent and intense shocks, resilience is becoming a salient characteristic of any kind of business.

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Stephen Hawking’s advice for twenty-first century grads: Embrace complexity | The Curious Wavefunction, Scientific American Blog Network

Stephen Hawking’s advice for twenty-first century grads: Embrace complexity | The Curious Wavefunction, Scientific American Blog Network | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
As the economy continues to chart its own tortuous, uncertain course, there seems to have been a fair amount of much-needed discussion on the kinds of ...
David G Wilson's insight:
"Many of the most important fields of twenty-first century research including neuroscience, synthetic and systems biology, materials science and energy are inherently composed of multilevel phenomena that proliferate across different levels of complexity"
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Spot the difference for underwriters

Spot the difference for underwriters | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
Q. How do you identify and differentiate between the good and bad risk, providing a verifiable basis for an underwriting decision that enables you to win the business?
David G Wilson's insight:

How can the 'carrier' of financial risk identify, win, retain and reward operations that (1) are inherently resilient (2) bring resilience to their risk portfolio?

 

After all, how can the risk carrier be deemed to be resilient without, first, assessing and monitoring the resilience of the individual risks upon which its future performance is reliant?  

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Risk Rating, Self Rating, Company Analysis And Risk Management Solutions -  RateABusiness

Risk Rating, Self Rating, Company Analysis And Risk Management Solutions -  RateABusiness | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
Self-Rating is a revolutionary internet-based risk assessment service offering risk management solutions,Risk Rating, business diagnosis, business ratings, complexity management, financial risk assessment, business diagnosis, rate business, online...
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Quantitative Complexity Management: A simple 5 step process

There are plenty of self-anointed subject matter experts happy to pontificate upon complexity.
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Ontonix S.r.l.: Is Risk Management a Source of Risk

Ontonix S.r.l.: Is Risk Management a Source of Risk | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it

If you have risk function, however, that fully understands the business model, the deployment of its operational strategy, the sector the business operates in and the macro-economic and socio-political environment in which it operates, then they will be able to provide risk information that is relevant to the business, and can be understood by the business.

David G Wilson's insight:

'Knowledge' that fails to distinguish between practises based upon sound theory and assumptions do not lead to understanding but to a feedback loop of unintended consequences...patterns and correlations of our own making!


Unidentified sources of risk and ill-informed (albeit well-intentioned) efforts to manage without UNDERSTANDING 'causal relationships' has the opposite of the desired effect...


...unmanaged risk does not dissipate but is a source of systemic risk, mis-managed, it adds complexity is amplified through the business' interdependencies and interactions, feeding-back as volatility and adding to uncertainty.


'Conventional wisdom' (or herd mentality) based upon assumptions of knowledge, can/does impair our ability to understand and address issues at source.


Before we had the tools to increase our knowledge we were ignorant but, to have the tools and not use them is dangerous and costly ineptitude!:


'Corporate Latency' is a significant source of, reducible, exposure in every domain and, unless it is better managed, we cannot build resilient systems or create ecosystems that can claim to be truly sustainable.     

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UK General insurers have most to gain from “simplicity”| Siegel+Gale [report]

UK General insurers have most to gain from “simplicity”| Siegel+Gale [report] | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
UK brands have much to gain if they can effectively streamline their communications and experiences for their consumers. UK respondents said they would pay over £2.75bn a year for simpler communica...
David G Wilson's insight:

The simplicity of providing sustainable, transparent, value to customers’ should only be as complex as it needs, to be BOTH effective and profitable!

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Alexander@ONTONIX's curator insight, January 14, 8:14 PM

For some the more complex it becomes the more job security they have - just look at our politcians !

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Ontonix S.r.l.: Complexity Monitoring - A Formidable Early-Warning Tool

Ontonix S.r.l.: Complexity Monitoring - A Formidable Early-Warning Tool | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
David G Wilson's insight:

"...tracking the evolution of the distance of a system from its critical complexity yields a measure of the system’s vulnerability. As increasingly high thresholds of complexity are crossed, warning of increasing exposure may be issued. Systems that are kept at a safe distance from criticality are robust and therefore enjoy a lower risk exposure than near-critical systems. This may be said of corporations, markets or societies, or the World as a whole."

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Governance, complexity, and resilienc

David G Wilson's insight:

"a complex system perspective is essential for understanding and analytically capturing the dynamics of rapid, interlinked, and multifaceted processes of change in social–ecological systems...rethinking problems of

governance and law in a resilience perspective can often prove
very helpful in identifying strengths and weaknesses of contemporary governance systems.


With regards to the question of what new governance models
are needed to handle complex social–ecological systems, it seems
that there is a need to move beyond the simple diversity
hypothesis towards considering if and how governance systems
handle both change and stability simultaneously"

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Ontonix - new research reveals the negative impact of complexity upon portfolio returns

Ontonix - new research reveals the negative impact of complexity upon portfolio returns | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
Ontonix has established a radically innovative complexity-based approach to understanding and managing risk. Excessive complexity is a formidable source of exposure and vulnerability hence it must be measured and monitored.
David G Wilson's insight:

"... The research shows that size, complexity and momentum stand out as the factors that can influence stock returns the most. Using data from the S&P and spanning the period 2009 - 2013, it has been found that increases in complexity have negative relationships with stock returns...."

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Is it Possible to Make Predictions?: don't ask an Actuary or statistician

Is it Possible to Make Predictions?: don't ask an Actuary or statistician | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it

I don't consider myself particularly clever but I understand that, when it comes to matters of finance and insurance, we CANNOT predict the future...

David G Wilson's insight:

"the phrase "predictive model" is an oxymoron...because of the way the laws of physics work, the future is permanently under construction." http://wp.me/p16h8c-1Ev

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Fooled by 'Certainty'

Fooled by 'Certainty' | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it

“You cannot logically or reasonably determine between your thoughts that are correct or incorrect.  Certainty and similar states of ‘knowing what we know’ are sensations that feel like thoughts, but arise out of the involuntary brain mechanisms that function independently of reason.  The feeling of knowing (certainty) is very similar to other emotions such as love, anger or hate but importantly – the feeling of knowing in itself, functions independently from reason.  This feeling is not a conscious choice or thought process.”

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Ontonix S.r.l.: Rating the Rating Agencies - We've Rated Moody's.

Ontonix S.r.l.: Rating the Rating Agencies - We've Rated Moody's. | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
Rating the Rating Agencies - We've Rated Moody's. http://t.co/TBag4O7nQJ
David G Wilson's insight:

Unlike Moodys (or ANY of the rating agencies) Ontonix DO provide a cost effective solution with 'constructive transparency'   

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David G Wilson's comment, July 17, 2013 5:23 PM
Corrupted Credit Ratings: "The beneficiaries of this rating bias are generally the large financial institutions that issue most structured debt; they in turn provide the rating agencies with most of their fee income. Better ratings on different components (so-called tranches) of the debt-issue amount to a lower average yield at issuance – a cost reduction pocketed by the issuer bank". http://wallstreetpit.com/100419-corrupted-credit-ratings/
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Iain Fraser: how to deal with complexity - Telegraph

Iain Fraser: how to deal with complexity  - Telegraph | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
Project Plus CEO Iain Fraser talks about the project manager's role in delivering complex projects and providing clarity to businesses.
David G Wilson's insight:

Some very good reasons for an objective, complexity meaurement from Ontonix!: "Selfish interest cannot be ruled out in even the most utilitarian of organisations, but different customs, loyalties and friendships can also have a big say in how a project unfolds.

Complexities also arise in the varied ways that organisations tackle projects, with some stakeholders taking the stance that “the old ways are the best”, while others are keen to implement rigid structures and templates for success..."

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Ontonix:: WE have every reason to advocate transparency

Ontonix:: WE have every reason to advocate transparency | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
The Ontonix 'Corporate Mission' is clear and there is no better starting point – or time to start - on the road to building a more effective and resilient business - communities - economies – world...
David G Wilson's insight:

The Ontonix ‘Corporate Mission’ is clear and there is no better starting point – or time to start – on the road to building a more effective and resilient business – communities – economies – world, than RIGHT NOW!"

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Risk Management: Lessons from the Insurance Industry - ValueWalk

Risk Management: Lessons from the Insurance Industry - ValueWalk | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it

In my career as an asset manager, and as a manager of financial risk, I have learned that all good risk management is done upfront, before the first purchase is made or product is sold.

David G Wilson's insight:

Without the ability to identify emerging trends [threats] management of financial risk is reliant upon 'feedback' from outcomes. Is such a reflexive, reactive, approach still adequate when the reach and pace of business is so vast?  

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Risk Management's Evolution In Insurance - Insurance & Technology

Risk Management's Evolution In Insurance - Insurance & Technology | Complexity & Resilience | Scoop.it
Risk Management's Evolution In Insurance Insurance & Technology It gives risk professionals the ability to understand how different kinds of risks affect all aspects of the business -- and to make more informed decisions about how to handle those...
David G Wilson's insight:

I would beg to differ in repect of 'Big Data' and projections...as, if we keep asking the same limited questions of the data (in any quantity) then use these outcomes as a basis to attempt to predict the future what has changed???


However, we at Ontonix, wholeheartedly agree with (and facilitate) quantification of properties that reflect the complexity of the underwriting process: system resilience. In a recent survey of insurance chief risk officers, Ernst & Young identified risk quantification as one of four big themes CROs are addressing. "Quantification is becoming increasingly important and more companies are devoting added resources to economic capital, capital optimization and the measurement of market, credit and operational risks,"

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