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Predictability of social interactions

The ability to predict social interactions between people has profound applications including targeted marketing and prediction of information diffusion and disease propagation. Previous work has shown that the location of an individual at any given time is highly predictable. This study examines the predictability of social interactions between people to determine whether interaction patterns are similarly predictable. I find that the locations and times of interactions for an individual are highly predictable; however, the other person the individual interacts with is less predictable. Furthermore, I show that knowledge of the locations and times of interactions has almost no effect on the predictability of the other person. Finally I demonstrate that a simple Markov chain model is able to achieve close to the upper bound in terms of predicting the next person with whom a given individual will interact.

Predictability of social interactions. (arXiv:1306.1271v1 [cs.SI]) http://t.co/uKzEy4ZazR
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Complexity - Complex Systems Theory
Complex systems present problems both in mathematical modelling and philosophical foundations. The study of complex systems represents a new approach to science that investigates how relationships between parts give rise to the collective behaviors of a system and how the system interacts and forms relationships with its environment. The equations from which models of complex systems are developed generally derive from statistical physics, information theory and non-linear dynamics, and represent organized but unpredictable behaviors of natural systems that are considered fundamentally complex. wikipedia (en)
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The Slime Mould Collective - An international network of/for intelligent organisms

The Slime Mould Collective - An international network of/for intelligent organisms | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it

The Slime Mould Collective is a portal for interesting, progressive and ground breaking research and creative practice working with the simple yet intelligent organisms. If you are involved with or interested in slime moulds as a scientist, artist (or somewhere in between or other) please join and share what you do...

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[1505.05738] Predictability of Critical Transitions

[1505.05738] Predictability of Critical Transitions | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it

Critical transitions in multistable systems have been discussed as models for a variety of phenomena ranging from the extinctions of species to socio-economic changes and climate transitions between ice-ages and warm-ages. From bifurcation theory we can expect certain critical transitions to be preceded by a decreased recovery from external perturbations. The consequences of this critical slowing down have been observed as an increase in variance and autocorrelation prior to the transition. However especially in the presence of noise it is not clear, whether these changes in observation variables are statistically relevant such that they could be used as indicators for critical transitions. In this contribution we investigate the predictability of critical transitions in conceptual models. We study the the quadratic integrate-and-fire model and the van der Pol model, under the influence of external noise. We focus especially on the statistical analysis of the success of predictions and the overall predictability of the system. The performance of different indicator variables turns out to be dependent on the specific model under study and the conditions of accessing it. Furthermore, we study the influence of the magnitude of transitions on the predictive performance.

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PLOS Pathogens: Systems Biology for Biologists

PLOS Pathogens: Systems Biology for Biologists | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it

Have You Been Put Off by Systems Biology?

 

Do you avoid papers thick with mathematical details and unfamiliar statistical analyses? If so, this article is for you! Systems biology, at its core, is not a set of computational and mathematical techniques; these are merely tools, incredibly useful, but secondary. The heart of systems biology is simple: explaining how a system works requires an integrated outlook. For any phenotype—molecular, macroscopic, or ecological—a set of interrelated factors exist that contribute to this phenotype. Since these factors interact, they need to be studied collectively, not merely individually. That’s it!

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What magnets tell us about nature's 'flash mobs' - Futurity

What magnets tell us about nature's 'flash mobs' - Futurity | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it
The question of what generates ecological "flash mobs" has long perplexed scientists. Part of the answer has to do with what makes a magnet a magnet.
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La thermodynamique des transitions économiques - François Roddier - YouTube

Conférence donnée à aux Ateliers du think-tank The Shift Project le 12 mars 2015, par François Roddier, astrophysicien. LA THERMODYNAMIQUE DES TRANSITIONS ÉC...
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Complexity and Interconnection: The Dao, Sade, and Time/Quantum Biology, Part 1

Complexity and Interconnection: The Dao, Sade, and Time/Quantum Biology, Part 1 | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it
Caveat - This essay is an attempt to make sense of disparate philosophies, texts, concepts and human conquests. It is a patchwork of very diverse

Via Christophe Bredillet
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Synchronization of chaotic systems

Synchronization of chaotic systems | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it
We review some of the history and early work in the area of synchronization in chaotic systems. We start with our own discovery of the phenomenon, but go on to establish the historical timeline of this topic back to the earliest known paper. The topic of synchronization of chaotic systems has always been intriguing, since chaotic systems are known to resist synchronization because of their positive Lyapunov exponents. The convergence of the two systems to identical trajectories is a surprise. We show how people originally thought about this process and how the concept of synchronization changed over the years to a more geometric view using synchronization manifolds. We also show that building synchronizing systems leads naturally to engineering more complex systems whose constituents are chaotic, but which can be tuned to output various chaotic signals. We finally end up at a topic that is still in very active exploration today and that is synchronization of dynamical systems in networks of oscillators.
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Ackoff Center Weblog: Why few organizations adopt systems thinking

Ackoff Center Weblog: Why few organizations adopt systems thinking | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it

I frequently talk to groups of managers on the nature of systems thinking and its radical implications to management. In doing so I use several case studies involving prominent American corporations. At the end of the presentation I am almost alwaysasked, "If this way of thinking is as good as you say it is, why don't more organizations use it?"
It is easy to reply by saying that organizations naturally resist change. This of course is a tautology. I once asked a vice president of marketing why consumers used his product. He answered, "Because they like it." I then asked him how he knew this. He answered, "Because the use it." Our answer to the question about failure of organizations to adopt systems thinking is seldom any better then this.
There be many reasons why any particular organization fails to adopt systems thinking but I believe there are two that are the most important, one general and one specific. By a general reason I mean one that is responsible for organizations failing to adopt any transforming idea, let alone systems thinking. By a specific reason I mean one responsible for the failure to adopt systems thinking in particular.

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Does Longer Copyright Protection Help or Hurt Scientific Knowledge Creation?

Does Longer Copyright Protection Help or Hurt Scientific Knowledge Creation? | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it

The Constitution of the United States empowers the Congress to pass copyright laws to promote knowledge creation in the society and more specifically scientific knowledge. Many interesting economic studies have been conducted on copyright law, but very little research has been done to study the impact of the law on knowledge creation. In this paper we develop and analyze an agent-based model to investigate the impact of copyright on the creation and discovery of new knowledge. The model suggests that, for the most part, the extension of the copyright term hinders scholars in producing new knowledge. Furthermore, extending the copyright term tends to harm everyone, including scholars who have access to all published articles in the research field. However, we also identify situations where extending copyright term promotes rather than hinders knowledge creation. Additionally, scholars that publish copyrighted materials tend to out-perform those who do not creating a potential tension between individual incentives and the public good.

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Exploring Creativity and Urban Development with Agent-Based Modeling

Exploring Creativity and Urban Development with Agent-Based Modeling | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it

Scholars and urban planners have suggested that the key characteristic of leading world cities is that they attract the highest quality human talent through educational and professional opportunities. They offer enabling environments for productive human interactions and the growth of knowledge-based industries which drives economic growth through innovation. Both through hard and soft infrastructure, they offer physical connectivity which fosters human creativity and results in higher income levels. When combined with population density, socio-economic diversity and societal tolerance; the elevated interaction intensity diffuses creativity and improves productivity. In many developing country cities however, rapid urbanization is increasing sprawl and causing deteriorating in public services. We operationalize these insights by creating a stylized agent-based model where heterogeneous and independent decision-making agents interact under the following three scenarios: (1) improved urban transportation investments; (2) mixed land-use regulations; and (3) reduced residential segregation. We find that any combination of these scenarios results in greater population density and enables the diffusion of creativity, thus resulting in economic growth. However, the results demonstrate a clear trade-off between rapid economic progress and socioeconomic equity mainly due to the crowding out of low- and middle-income households from clusters of creativity.

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Chaos Theory and the Logistic Map - Geoff Boeing

Chaos Theory and the Logistic Map - Geoff Boeing | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it
Using Python to visualize chaos, fractals, and self-similarity to better understand the limits of knowledge and prediction.
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Strange Stars Pulse to the Golden Mean | Quanta Magazine

Strange Stars Pulse to the Golden Mean |  Quanta Magazine | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it
Strange Stars Pulse to the Golden Mean
Nature has revealed peculiar mathematical objects that connect order and chaos.
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What Isn't Complexity?

The question What is Complexity? has occupied a great deal of time and paper over the last 20 or so years. There are a myriad different perspectives and definitions but still no consensus. In this paper I take a phenomenological approach, identifying several factors that discriminate well between systems that would be consensually agreed to be simple versus others that would be consensually agreed to be complex - biological systems and human languages. I argue that a crucial component is that of structural building block hierarchies that, in the case of complex systems, correspond also to a functional hierarchy. I argue that complexity is an emergent property of this structural/functional hierarchy, induced by a property - fitness in the case of biological systems and meaning in the case of languages - that links the elements of this hierarchy across multiple scales. Additionally, I argue that non-complex systems "are" while complex systems "do" so that the latter, in distinction to physical systems, must be described not only in a space of states but also in a space of update rules (strategies) which we do not know how to specify. Further, the existence of structural/functional building block hierarchies allows for the functional specialisation of structural modules as amply observed in nature. Finally, we argue that there is at least one measuring apparatus capable of measuring complexity as characterised in the paper - the human brain itself.

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Complexity in Industrial Ecology: Models, Analysis, and Actions

This special issue brings together articles that illustrate the recent advances of studying complex adaptive systems in industrial ecology (IE). The authors explore the emergent behavior of sociotechnical systems, including product systems, industrial symbiosis (IS) networks, cities, resource consumption, and co-authorship networks, and offer application of complex systems models and analyses. The articles demonstrate the links, relevance, and implications of many (often emerging) fields of study to IE, including network analysis, participatory modeling, nonequilibrium thermodynamics, and agent-based modeling. Together, these articles show that IE itself is a complex adaptive system, where knowledge, frameworks, methods, and tools evolve with and by their applications and use in small and large case studies—multidisciplinary knowledge ecology.

 

Complexity in Industrial Ecology: Models, Analysis, and Actions
Gerard P.J. Dijkema, Ming Xu, Sybil Derrible and Reid Lifset

Journal of Industrial Ecology
Special Issue: Advances in Complex Adaptive Systems and Industrial Ecology
Volume 19, Issue 2, pages 189–194, April 2015

http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12280


Via Complexity Digest
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On the tail risk of violent conflict and its underestimation

On the tail risk of violent conflict and its underestimation | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it

We examine all possible statistical pictures of violent conflicts over common era history with a focus on dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of data. We apply methods from extreme value theory on log-transformed data to remove compact support, then, owing to the boundedness of maximum casualties, retransform the data and derive expected means. We find the estimated mean likely to be at least three times larger than the sample mean, meaning severe underestimation of the severity of conflicts from naive observation. We check for robustness by sampling between high and low estimates and jackknifing the data. We study inter-arrival times between tail events and find (first-order) memorylessless of events. The statistical pictures obtained are at variance with the claims about "long peace".

 

On the tail risk of violent conflict and its underestimation
Pasquale Cirillo, Nassim Nicholas Taleb

http://arxiv.org/abs/1505.04722


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[1505.04518] Emergence-focused design in complex system simulation

[1505.04518] Emergence-focused design in complex system simulation | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it

Emergence is a phenomenon taken for granted in science but also still not well understood. We have developed a model of artificial genetic evolution intended to allow for emergence on genetic, population and social levels. We present the details of the current state of our environment, agent, and reproductive models. In developing our models we have relied on a principle of using non-linear systems to model as many systems as possible including mutation and recombination, gene-environment interaction, agent metabolism, agent survival, resource gathering and sexual reproduction. In this paper we review the genetic dynamics that have emerged in our system including genotype-phenotype divergence, genetic drift, pseudogenes, and gene duplication. We conclude that emergence-focused design in complex system simulation is necessary to reproduce the multilevel emergence seen in the natural world.

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Ce qui vient au hasard est-il complexe ? | Scilogs.fr :Complexités

Ce qui vient au hasard est-il complexe ? | Scilogs.fr :Complexités | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it
La question posée est bien sûr imprécise, et nous allons en donner plusieurs interprétations qui conduiront à plusieurs réponses
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How a well-adapted immune system is organized

The adaptive immune system uses the experience of past infections to prepare its limited repertoire of specialized receptors to protect organisms from future threats. What is the best way of doing this? Building a theoretical framework from first principles, we predict the composition of receptor repertoires that are optimally adapted to minimize the cost of infections from a given pathogenic environment. A naive repertoire can reach these optima through a biologically plausible competitive mechanism. Our findings explain how limited populations of immune receptors can self-organize to provide effective immunity against highly diverse pathogens. Our results also inform the design and interpretation of experiments surveying immune repertoires.

 

How a well-adapted immune system is organized
Andreas Mayer, Vijay Balasubramanian, Thierry Mora, and Aleksandra M. Walczak

http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421827112 ;


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5 Differences between complexity & systems thinking

5 Differences between complexity & systems thinking | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it

“Over the last 10 days I've had the privilege of accompanying Prof Dave Snowden to various workshops and client meetings in Johannesburg & Cape Town. It's been almost 5 years since his last vis...”


Via Jürgen Kanz
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Thwink.org - Finding and Resolving the Root Causes of the Sustainability Problem

Thwink.org - Finding and Resolving the Root Causes of the Sustainability Problem | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it
RT @C3LivingDesign: Here's a really well done description of #SystemsThinking at http://t.co/jz14i9zSzh: http://t.co/EqcWwdf3Rk | #C3LD #C3…

Via Jürgen Kanz
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Modelling Academics as Agents

Modelling Academics as Agents | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it

The rapid changes occurring in the higher education domain are placing increasing pressure on the actors in this space to focus efforts on identifying and adopting strategies for success. One particular group of interest are academics or scientists, and the ways that these individuals, or collectives as institutional or discipline-based science systems, make decisions about how best to achieve success in their chosen field. The agent-based model and simulation that we present draws on the hypothetical "strategic publication model" proposed by Mölders, Fink and Weyer (2011), and extends this work by defining experimental settings to implement a prototype ABMS in NetLogo. While considerable work remains to fully resolve theoretical issues relating to the scope, calibration and validation of the model, this work goes some way toward resolving some of the details associated with defining appropriate experimental settings. Also presented are the results of four experiments that focus on exploring the emergent effects of the system that result from varying the strategic mix of actors in the system.

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How Evolutionary Dynamics Affects Network Reciprocity in Prisoner's Dilemma

How Evolutionary Dynamics Affects Network Reciprocity in Prisoner's Dilemma | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it

Cooperation lies at the foundations of human societies, yet why people cooperate remains a conundrum. The issue, known as network reciprocity, of whether population structure can foster cooperative behavior in social dilemmas has been addressed by many, but theoretical studies have yielded contradictory results so far—as the problem is very sensitive to how players adapt their strategy. However, recent experiments with the prisoner's dilemma game played on different networks and in a specific range of payoffs suggest that humans, at least for those experimental setups, do not consider neighbors' payoffs when making their decisions, and that the network structure does not influence the final outcome. In this work we carry out an extensive analysis of different evolutionary dynamics, taking into account most of the alternatives that have been proposed so far to implement players' strategy updating process. In this manner we show that the absence of network reciprocity is a general feature of the dynamics (among those we consider) that do not take neighbors' payoffs into account. Our results, together with experimental evidence, hint at how to properly model real people's behavior.

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Responding to Complexity in Socio-­Economic Systems: How to Build a Smart and Resilient Society?

The world is changing at an ever-increasing pace. And it has changed in a much more fundamental way than one would think, primarily because it has become more connected and interdependent than in our entire history. Every new product, every new invention can be combined with those that existed before, thereby creating an explosion of complexity: structural complexity, dynamic complexity, functional complexity, and algorithmic complexity. How to respond to this challenge?

 

Responding to Complexity in Socio-­Economic Systems: How to Build a Smart and Resilient Society?

Dirk Helbing

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2583391


Via Complexity Digest, Complejidady Economía
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When Darwin meets Lorenz: Evolving new chaotic attractors through genetic programming (v2)

In this paper, we propose a novel methodology for automatically finding new chaotic attractors through a computational intelligence technique known as multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP). We apply this technique to the case of the Lorenz attractor and evolve several new chaotic attractors based on the basic Lorenz template. The MGGP algorithm automatically finds new nonlinear expressions for the different state variables starting from the original Lorenz system. The Lyapunov exponents of each of the attractors are calculated numerically based on the time series of the state variables using time delay embedding techniques. The MGGP algorithm tries to search the functional space of the attractors by aiming to maximise the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) of the evolved attractors. To demonstrate the potential of the proposed methodology, we report over one hundred new chaotic attractor structures along with their parameters, which are evolved from just the Lorenz system alone.

  

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Is the Hénon attractor chaotic?

Is the Hénon attractor chaotic? | Complexity - Complex Systems Theory | Scoop.it
By performing a systematic study of the Hénon map, we find low-period sinks for parameter values extremely close to the classical ones. This raises the question whether or not the well-known Hénon attractor—the attractor of the Hénon map existing for the classical parameter values—is a strange attractor, or simply a stable periodic orbit. Using results from our study, we conclude that even if the latter were true, it would be practically impossible to establish this by computing trajectories of the map.
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