Complexity & Systems
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Complexity & Systems
Complex systems present problems both in mathematical modelling and philosophical foundations. The study of complex systems represents a new approach to science that investigates how relationships between parts give rise to the collective behaviors of a system and how the system interacts and forms relationships with its environment. The equations from which models of complex systems are developed generally derive from statistical physics, information theory and non-linear dynamics, and represent organized but unpredictable behaviors of natural systems that are considered fundamentally complex.  wikipedia (en)
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Mathematical modeling of human behaviors during catastrophic events.

Mathematical modeling of human behaviors during catastrophic events. | Complexity & Systems | Scoop.it

In this paper, we introduce a new approach for modeling the human collective behaviors in the specific scenario of a sudden catastrophe, this catastrophe can be natural (i.e. earthquake, tsunami) or technological (nuclear event). The novelty of our work is to propose a mathematical model taking into account different concurrent behaviors in such situation and to include the processes of transition from one behavior to the other during the event. Thus, in this multidisciplinary research included mathematicians, computer scientists and geographers, we take into account the psychological reactions of the population in situations of disasters, and study their propagation mode. We propose a SIR-based model, where three types of collective reactions occur in catastrophe situations: reflex, panic and controlled behaviors. Moreover, we suppose that the interactions among these classes of population can be realized through imitation and emotional contagion processes. Some simulations will attest the relevance of the proposed model.

 

 

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Eli Levine's curator insight, May 20, 2014 11:19 AM

It's all algorithmic.

 

We only have so many potential solutions for a functional psychological composition in any given situation, thus leading to only a limited number of possibilities as to what can happen with a group of people (let alone, a single person).

 

We are not so much free on this plane of existence, as we are going through our neurological algorithms, which are produced by the physics of the universe and the chemistry of our brains and sense organs.  Each cultural group is likely to have its own response to fear or trouble, especially if they haven't interminged DNA and memes with others for an extended period of time.  This can possibly get down to genetic and epi-genetic levels, which then produce the deep environmental roots in which we are raised, even in heterogenous societies where people work together at the very least and live and reproduce amongst each other at the very most.  We're not so much free on this plane of existence, as we are running a program within our own mind as part of a larger social, ecological and cosmological algorithm.  It all blends seemlessly together, like a gigantic computer.  We are bound by our own natural laws on the lowest level; the biological, the physical, and we operate within the context of a higher law that we are both shaped by and are sometimes shapers of.  We are also bound by our social laws and sensibilities, which is both the product of our individual and collective brains and the shaper of our brains.  We are operating within a program and sometimes are the operators of a program; it all depends on where we are, what capabilities we have as individual people and what capabilities we are allowed as people within the context of a given society and environmental situation.  Everything is relative to another thing in this place; not a single thing stands on its own or can stand on its own for very long.

 

Therefore, why should we bother wanting "freedom", when there really is none to be had on this plane of existence?

 

Yet try to get people to see things in this more accurate and holistic manner, and you'll get spat at and looked down on, especially in American society.

 

What freedom is there on this plane of existence?

 

Silly brains.

 

Think about it.

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Why Model? Joshua M. Epstein

Why Model? Joshua M. Epstein | Complexity & Systems | Scoop.it

This lecture treats some enduring misconceptions about modeling. One of these is that the goal is always prediction. The lecture distinguishes between explanation and prediction as modeling goals, and offers sixteen reasons other than prediction to build a model. It also challenges the common assumption that scientific theories arise from and 'summarize' data, when often, theories precede and guide data collection; without theory, in other words, it is not clear what data to collect. Among other things, it also argues that the modeling enterprise enforces habits of mind essential to freedom. It is based on the author's 2008 Bastille Day keynote address to the Second World Congress on Social Simulation, George Mason University, and earlier addresses at the Institute of Medicine, the University of Michigan, and the Santa Fe Institute.

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António F Fonseca's curator insight, March 23, 2014 5:20 AM

The classical paper about modelling and simulation. Very clear.

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Kaya, l'équation qui calcule l'avenir de l'humanité

Kaya, l'équation qui calcule l'avenir de l'humanité | Complexity & Systems | Scoop.it
Comprendre l'équation de Kaya, qui permet de dynamiser les rapports entre les composantes d'un écosystème, est primordial pour penser l'avenir de l'espèce.
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Pattern and Process | Spatial Simulation: Exploring Pattern and Process

Pattern and Process | Spatial Simulation: Exploring Pattern and Process | Complexity & Systems | Scoop.it

Across broad areas of the environmental and social sciences, simulation models are an important way to study systems inaccessible to scientific experimental and observational methods, and also an essential complement of those more conventional approaches.  The contemporary research literature is teeming with abstract simulation models whose presentation is mathematically demanding and requires a high level of knowledge of quantitative and computational methods and approaches.  Furthermore, simulation models designed to represent specific systems and phenomena are often complicated, and, as a result, difficult to reconstruct from their descriptions in the literature.  Spatial Simulation: Exploring Pattern and Process aims to provide a practical and accessible account of dynamic spatial modelling, while also equipping readers with a sound conceptual foundation in the subject, and a useful introduction to the wide-ranging literature.

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Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?

Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'? | Complexity & Systems | Scoop.it

Nafeez Ahmed: Natural and social scientists develop new model of how 'perfect storm' of crises could unravel global system

 

 

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