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Telecommunications data show civic dividing lines in major countries

Telecommunications data show civic dividing lines in major countries | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it

Many residents of Britain, Italy, and Belgium imagine there to be a kind of north-south divide in their countries, marking a barrier between different social groups and regional characteristics. Now a new study by MIT researchers reveals that such divides can be seen in the patterns of communication in those countries and others.

 


Via Claudia Mihai, Complexity Institute
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Escaping the poverty trap: modeling the interplay between economic growth and the ecology of infectious disease

The dynamics of economies and infectious disease are inexorably linked: economic well-being influences health (sanitation, nutrition, treatment capacity, etc.) and health influences economic well-being (labor productivity lost to sickness and disease). Often societies are locked into ``poverty traps'' of poor health and poor economy. Here, using a simplified coupled disease-economic model with endogenous capital growth we demonstrate the formation of poverty traps, as well as ways to escape them. We suggest two possible mechanisms of escape both motivated by empirical data: one, through an influx of capital (development aid), and another through changing the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare. We find that a large influx of capital is successful in escaping the poverty trap, but increasing health spending alone is not. Our results demonstrate that escape from a poverty trap may be possible, and carry important policy implications in the world-wide distribution of aid and within-country healthcare spending.

 

Escaping the poverty trap: modeling the interplay between economic growth and the ecology of infectious disease
Georg M. Goerg, Oscar Patterson-Lomba, Laurent Hébert-Dufresne, Benjamin M. Althouse

http://arxiv.org/abs/1311.4079


Via Complexity Digest, Eugene Ch'ng
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OptionsCity Launches Freeway Analytics Trading-Simulation Platform - www.waterstechnology.com

OptionsCity Launches Freeway Analytics Trading-Simulation Platform - www.waterstechnology.com | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
OptionsCity Launches Freeway Analytics Trading-Simulation Platform www.waterstechnology.com Electronic options trading technology vendor OptionsCity Software has launched Freeway Analytics, a visualization engine and an exchange simulator based on...
ComplexInsight's insight:

As more financial simulation trading platforms ermerge it will be interesting to see how economics researchers incorporate, contrast, benchmark them to validate trading platforms and validate economic modeling of trading versus other modeling approaches.

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Cancer costing Europe 'billions'

Cancer costing Europe 'billions' | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it

Cancer costs countries in the European Union 126bn euro (£107bn) a year, according to the first EU-wide analysis of the economic impact of the disease.

ComplexInsight's insight:

Researchers from the University of Oxford and King's College London analysed data from each of the 27 nations in the EU in 2009. The showed the total cost was 126bn euro and of that 51bn (£43bn) euro was down to healthcare costs including doctors' time and drug costs. Lost productivity, because of work missed through sickness or dying young, cost 52bn (£44bn) euro while the cost to families of providing care was put at 23bn (£19.5bn) euro. While the figures will probably attract the headlnes and hopefulyl motivate new research and solution creation, for those impacted by cancer's on individual and family life  the costs are often seemingly immeasurable. 

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National disability insurance scheme has priced some services 'much too low'

National disability insurance scheme has priced some services 'much too low' | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
Chief executive says service providers will not be financially sustainable if the budgeted rates are not increased Parts of the national disability insurance scheme have been priced too low and will have to be significantly increased when the...
ComplexInsight's insight:

The problem with models - Australian government discover their cost models for national disability insurance don't add up and the figures applied in the budget won't be sufficient to pay for actuql services.. 

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Complexity Economics: A Different Framework for Economic Thought

This paper provides a logical framework for complexity economics. Complexity economics builds from the proposition that the economy is not necessarily in equilibrium: economic agents (firms, consumers, investors) constantly change their actions and strategies in response to the outcome they mutually create. This further changes the outcome, which requires them to adjust afresh. Agents thus live in a world where their beliefs and strategies are constantly being “tested” for survival within an outcome or “ecology” these beliefs and strategies together create. Economics has largely avoided this nonequilibrium view in the past, but if we allow it, we see patterns or phenomena not visible to equilibrium analysis. These emerge probabilistically, last for some time and dissipate, and they correspond to complex structures in other fields. We also see the economy not as something given and existing but forming from a constantly developing set of technological innovations, institutions, and arrangements that draw forth further innovations, institutions and arrangements.(...) 

 

Complexity Economics: A Different Framework for Economic Thought
W. Brian Arthur
SFI WP 13-04-012

http://www.santafe.edu/research/working-papers/abstract/36df2f7d8ecd8941d8fab92ded2c4547/


Via Complexity Digest, Ashish Umre, John Symons
ComplexInsight's insight:

Brian Arthur was an early pioneer of applying concepts of complex systems to economic systems and its good to see an update publication that builds on his earlier work and other work in this area. Certainly worth reading.

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Bill Aukett's curator insight, July 16, 2013 7:24 PM

If you've read Waldrop's account of the development of the complexity paradigm at the Sante Fe Institute (Waldrop, M, (1992) Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Chaos, Simon & Schuster, New York), the name Brian Arthur will be familiar.

Betty Cares's curator insight, July 17, 2013 6:39 AM

Another interesting paper from one of our great complexity thinkers, Brian Arthur, author of the El Farol Problem.  I will publish that here soon too!

Luciano Lampi's curator insight, July 18, 2013 5:11 AM

does democracy represent the best tool to face non-equilibrium states and emergence? 

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How Do You Feed 9 Billion People?

How Do You Feed 9 Billion People? | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
EAST LANSING, Mich. — An international team of scientists has developed crop models to better forecast food production to feed a growing population – projected to reach 9 billion by mid-century – in the face of climate change.
ComplexInsight's insight:

 A recurrent and central theme for us at Complex Insight is how important simulations are to tackling major real world challenges.  In a paper appearing in Nature Climate Change, Bruno Basso, Michigan State University ecosystem scientist and other members of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project unveiled an all-encompassing modeling system that integrates multiple crop simulations with improved climate change models.The new simulation model better predicts global wheat yields while reducing political and socio-economic influences that can skew data and planning efforts..In engineering simulation there has long been a trend to model based design - hopefully other areas of public policy can leverage work such as this to follow in a similar direction. 

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Flow motifs reveal limitations of the static framework to represent human interactions

Networks are commonly used to define underlying interaction structures where infections, information, or other quantities may spread. Although the standard approach has been to aggregate all links into a static structure, some studies have shown that the time order in which the links are established may alter the dynamics of spreading. In this paper, we study the impact of the time ordering in the limits of flow on various empirical temporal networks. By using a random walk dynamics, we estimate the flow on links and convert the original undirected network (temporal and static) into a directed flow network. We then introduce the concept of flow motifs and quantify the divergence in the representativity of motifs when using the temporal and static frameworks. We find that the regularity of contacts and persistence of vertices (common in email communication and face-to-face interactions) result on little differences in the limits of flow for both frameworks. On the other hand, in the case of communication within a dating site and of a sexual network, the flow between vertices changes significantly in the temporal framework such that the static approximation poorly represents the structure of contacts. We have also observed that cliques with 3 and 4 vertices containing only low-flow links are more represented than the same cliques with all high-flow links. The representativity of these low-flow cliques is higher in the temporal framework. Our results suggest that the flow between vertices connected in cliques depend on the topological context in which they are placed and in the time sequence in which the links are established. The structure of the clique alone does not completely characterize the potential of flow between the vertices.

 

Flow motifs reveal limitations of the static framework to represent human interactions

Luis E. C. Rocha and Vincent D. Blondel 

Phys. Rev. E 87, 042814 (2013)

http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.87.042814


Via Complexity Digest
ComplexInsight's insight:

In our own research temporality of relationships or interactions between agents is a common property of various systems (think infection, traffic, economic exchange). Maybe its coming from a computer graphics background but their use of Flow motifs reminds me a lot of flow fields and   glyph representations in scientific visualizations.

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Financial Networks and Cartography

Talk at Understanding Financial Catastrophe Risk: Developing a Research Agenda.
ComplexInsight's insight:

Good introduction talk by Kimmo Soramaki on understanding financial risk and types of tools for network analysis. Worth a quick look.

 
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The Dynamics of Nestedness Predicts the Evolution of Industrial Ecosystems

In economic systems, the mix of products that countries make or export has been shown to be a strong leading indicator of economic growth. Hence, methods to characterize and predict the structure of the network connecting countries to the products that they export are relevant for understanding the dynamics of economic development. Here we study the presence and absence of industries in international and domestic economies and show that these networks are significantly nested.

 

Bustos S, Gomez C, Hausmann R, Hidalgo CA (2012) The Dynamics of Nestedness Predicts the Evolution of Industrial Ecosystems. PLoS One 7(11): e49393. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0049393


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Learning to Love Volatility

Learning to Love Volatility | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it

 Nassim Nicholas Taleb who coined the term black swans writes an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal on the need for systems to be non-fragile in order to cope with unexpected change. Its a good application of complex adaptive systems thinking on shaping possible paths to governance and large scale systems such as banking regulation. Worth reading. Click on the image or the title to learn more.

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J. Doyne Farmer on Agent-Based Modeling

Good interview at the Institutional Investor with J. Doyne Farmer,  an external professor at the Santa Fe Institute, a private, nonprofit research organization, but was originally trained as a physicist. In the 1980s he worked at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, home of the Manhattan Project, where scientific luminaries like J. Robert Oppenheimer and Richard Feynman once plied their trade. At Los Alamos Farmer founded the Complex Systems Group in the theoretical division. In 1991, he co-founded the Prediction Company, a quantitative trading firm which was purchased by Swiss banking giant UBS in 2005.The Santa Fe academic and Los Alamos alum says the insights of classical and behavioral finance can be much refined by using computers to simulate how real people act — and interact — when making economic decisions. Click on the title to learn more.

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A Warning on Bank Complexity, From Someone Who Would Know

A Warning on Bank Complexity, From Someone Who Would Know | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it

The interdependence and complexity of the global finanical system is is a rich area for complex systems research. So it is interesting when bank executives state who needs to own and manage the complexity of the system. Sallie L. Krawcheck, a former Bank of America and Citigroup executive, discussed her concerns about the complexity of financial behemoths at the Bloomberg Markets 50 Summit in Manhattan conference.“If you look at the job of the board, if you look at the job of investors, it’s the concern about complexity,”  When asked whether she saw evidence that banks had become too complex.

“It’s tough to generalize,” she said. “My concern is when the products themselves become too complex to understand, one begins to have a problem.” 

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Artificial Economics 2014 - AE 2014

The main aim of the Symposium is to facilitate the meeting of people working on different topics in different fields (mainly Economics, Finance and Computer Science) in order to encourage a structured multi-disciplinary approach to social sciences. Presentations and keynote sessions center around multi-agent modelling, from the viewpoint of both applications and computer-based tools. The event is also open to methodological surveys.

The event will be hosted by Social Simulation 2014, the 10th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association at the Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
September 1-5th, 2014.

http://essa2014.org


Via Complexity Digest
ComplexInsight's insight:

Understanding how to simulate economic and social systems will be critical in future planning and analysis tools- The Social Simulation 2014 conference will be a key event. 

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ComplexInsight's curator insight, December 11, 2013 3:50 AM

bookmarking so can come back and read later.

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Bill Gates: Here's My Plan to Improve Our World — And How You Can Help | Wired Business | Wired.com

Bill Gates: Here's My Plan to Improve Our World — And How You Can Help | Wired Business | Wired.com | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
Bill Gates on how innovation is the key to a brighter future, and how we're only just getting started.
ComplexInsight's insight:

Who wouldnt want to talk about fertilizer with Bill Gates... or books, or education, vaccinations or development economics..for that matter. Worth reading.

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Biotech, farmer associations key for climate adaptation - panel - Reuters AlertNet (blog)

Biotech, farmer associations key for climate adaptation - panel - Reuters AlertNet (blog) | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
Biotech, farmer associations key for climate adaptation - panel Reuters AlertNet (blog) LONDON (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - An increasingly extreme climate is presenting new challenges to farmers across the world, and biotechnology and greater...
ComplexInsight's insight:

The potential for genetically modified crops and relation to climate change - which recently helped drive Monsanto to acquire The Climate Corporation  is once again in the headlines. At the recent Iowa discussion, five farmers from Malawi, India, Portugal, Argentina and Kenya said they were strong believers in using biotech crops to survive and thrive in the face of a changing climate, and said that farmers needed to share ideas and help each other improve farming techniques.  Trust.org does a great job in summarizing the ideas discussed at the event. Worth reading.

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Study: Some Americans Will Pay Just $34 Per Year Under Obamacare

Study: Some Americans Will Pay Just $34 Per Year Under Obamacare | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
Obamacare will dramatically reduce the cost of health care for some of the poorest Americans, a new study finds.
ComplexInsight's insight:

Its not often that we get to model, assess and evaluate the outcome of major insurance system changes. With the advent of affordable care act - the United States is providing such an opportunity. Rand Corporaton released figures based on their cost modeling of the Affordable Care Act that indicate out-of-pocket health care costs will drop from $1,463 to just $34 per year in 2016 for the approximately11.5 million amercans who get insurance via the Affordable Care Act’s expansion of Medicaid. President Obama's health care reform law will also reduce the likelihood that this group will face catastrophic medical costs -- defined as 10 percent of income -- by 40 percent, according to the study. As the law comes into effect it will be interesting to assess the efficacy of these studies and contrast them with data provided by those who oppose the affordable care act and hopefully in doing so - step closer to better healthcare and economic policy informed by data.

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Bacteria 'have lessons for economy'

Bacteria 'have lessons for economy' | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
Colonies of bacteria balance growth against risk, just like financial investors, ecologists have found.
ComplexInsight's insight:

Almost half a century ago Richard Levins first suggested that trade-offs in organisms' investment decisions lead to them exploiting different niches, and this concept may apply both in biological ecology and in financial markets, but it has not previously been demonstrated as clearly by experimental observations. Using lab-based synthetic biology, experiments in bacterial evolution, and mathematical modelling a new study test Levins hypothesis and  finds links between behavioural patterns of micro-organisms and markets.  A research group from the UK and Australia used strains of the bacterium E. coli that were constrained in the amount of resource that they had for growth, but that were also subjected to varying degrees of biological stress. The work is described in a paper in the journal Ecology Letters and covered by the BBC Science team.

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Didier Sornette: How we can predict the next financial crisis

The 2007-2008 financial crisis, you might think, was an unpredictable one-time crash. But Didier Sornette and his Financial Crisis Observatory have plotted a set of early warning signs for unstable, growing systems, tracking the moment when any bubble is about to pop. (And he's seeing it happen again, right now.)


Via Complexity Digest, John Symons
ComplexInsight's insight:

Didier Sornette and team's work .- highlights role of how system feedback can drive a variety of systems through phase transition resulting in dramatic structural and behavioural change in system behaviour.  While many of the underpinning ideas presented have been discussed extensively in the fields of chaos and complex systems - his teams methods of  analysis and publication combined with the variety of systems he and his team study will hopefully help gain a wider acceptance of using these methods to understand, model and steer systems behaviour. A video well worth watching.

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Bernard Ryefield's curator insight, June 17, 2013 1:14 PM

 

Didier Sornette theory of Dragon-Kings vs Black Swans is supported by a number of concepts from complexity science and certainly needs close scrutinity.

 

The Illusion of the Perpetual Money Machine

D. Sornette, P. Cauwels

http://arxiv.org/abs/1212.2833

 

Dragon Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises

Didier Sornette

http://arxiv.org/abs/0907.4290

 

Predictability and suppression of extreme events in complex systems

Hugo L. D. de Souza Cavalcante, Marcos Oria, Didier Sornette, Edward Ott, Daniel J. Gauthier

http://arxiv.org/abs/1301.0244

 

Luciano Lampi's curator insight, June 18, 2013 12:30 PM

si non é vero...é ben trovato!

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Rethinking Economics Using Complexity Theory

In this paper we argue that if we want to find a more satisfactory approach to tackling the major socio-economic problems we are facing, we need to thoroughly rethink the basic assumptions of macroeconomics and financial theory. Making minor modifications to the standard models to remove “imperfections” is not enough, the whole framework needs to be revisited.

 

Dirk Helbing and Alan Kirman: Rethinking Economics Using Complexity Theory http://www.soms.ethz.ch/paper_economics_complexity_theory


Via Complexity Digest
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One for some travel-time reading.

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Big Data for Conflict Prevention

Big Data for Conflict Prevention | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
I had the great pleasure of co-authoring the International Peace Institute's (IPI) unique report on "Big Data for Conflict Prevention" (PDF) with my two colleagues Emmanuel Letouzé and Patrick Vinc...
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To Understand Finance, Embrace Complexity

A highly unusual collaboration between economists and scientists offers an important insight for those who want to fix the world’s crisis-prone financial system: There’s no simple way to understand a complex network.
ComplexInsight's insight:

Good article explaining the realtionships between complex systems science, ecology and some of the problems of the financial industry. Worth reading.

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It's time to redesign our economic system

It's time to redesign our economic system | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it

John Fullerton asks what it will take for mainstream economists and financial theorists to understand the vital connection between economics and ecosystem. Click on the image or title to learn more.

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Complexity and the madness of crowds – lessons from disaster prevention

Complexity and the madness of crowds – lessons from disaster prevention | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it

Recent debates about the crisis vulnerability of international financial networks indicate that in economics complexity is still a widely misunderstood concept. Great post on comparing financial trading with the behaviour of crowds. Worth reading - click on image or title for more info.

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Why teaching economics must now change in light of the crisis | vox

Why teaching economics must now change in light of the crisis | vox | Complex Insight  - Understanding our world | Scoop.it

Diane Coyle talks to Viv Davies about her recent edited volume on 'What's the use of economics?' They discuss what economists need to bring to their jobs and the way in which education in universities could be improved to fit economic graduates better for the real world. The interview was recorded in London on 22 September 2012. Worth listening too. Click on image or title to learn more.

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