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COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN NATIONAL SECURITY
A gathering of articles/websites/books etc that involve the use of CAS and national security issues
Curated by Betty Cares
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Complex Systems Analysis-A Necessary Tool for Homeland Security

Complex Systems Analysis-A Necessary Tool for Homeland Security | COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN NATIONAL SECURITY | Scoop.it
Many of the threats the United States faces, and many of the means available to counter them, are embedded in webs of complex systems-from the transportation networks to the electrical grids.The responsibilities of the DHS include making the...
Betty Cares's insight:

A few years old but worth a look

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Luciano Lampi's curator insight, April 22, 2013 8:44 AM

Very good concepts of Complex Systems and  its applications to critical Homeland Security issues. 

Deserves a carefull reading.

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Stop Hyping Big Data and Start Paying Attention to 'Long Data'

By “long” data, I mean datasets that have massive historical sweep — taking you from the dawn of civilization to the present day. The kinds of datasets you see in Michael Kremer’s “Population growth and technological change: one million BC to 1990,” which provides an economic model tied to the world’s population data for a million years; or in Tertius Chandler’s Four Thousand Years of Urban Growth, which contains an exhaustive dataset of city populations over millennia. These datasets can humble us and inspire wonder, but they also hold tremendous potential for learning about ourselves.


Via Complexity Digest
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Complexity, patterns and links

Complexity, patterns and links | COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN NATIONAL SECURITY | Scoop.it
The mainstream ways of thinking about management are based on the sciences of certainty. The whole system of strategic choice, goal setting and choosing actions to reach the given goals in a contro...

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Defining and Modeling Complex Adaptive Systems

Defining and Modeling Complex Adaptive Systems | COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN NATIONAL SECURITY | Scoop.it
Almost all the critical problems of our time are problems of control and almost all of them concern complex adaptive systems. If we want to know more about our bodies, it is not just to increase knowledge but so that we can control our health.

 

CAS are  “systems that don’t yield compact forms of representation”1. In other words a complex system cannot be described by a simple set of equations. Why would this be the case? It is the “adaptive” nature of these systems that leads to this intractability. Agents within the system respond to each set of environmental conditions within a complex adaptive system with a different set of responses and the number of such environments and their corresponding agent responses that need to be accounted for to construct an accurate model of the system is simply too large. But is this simply a problem of impracticality? Could we, at least in theory, construct a model that takes into account all possible environmental conditions and all possible agent behaviours? Although some scientists may argue that such an approach is theoretically possible, there is ample evidence that the critical “adaptive” component of some complex adaptive systems may in fact be unmodelable


Via Anne Caspari
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luiy's curator insight, March 18, 2013 1:12 PM
What Is A Complex Adaptive System?

The first question that then needs to be answered is: What is a complex adaptive system? David Krakauer defines complex systems as “systems that don’t yield compact forms of representation”1. In other words a complex system cannot be described by a simple set of equations. Why would this be the case? As Krakauer notes, it is the “adaptive” nature of these systems that leads to this intractability. Agents within the system respond to each set of environmental conditions within a complex adaptive system with a different set of responses and the number of such environments and their corresponding agent responses that need to be accounted for to construct an accurate model of the system is simply too large. But is this simply a problem of impracticality? Could we, at least in theory, construct a model that takes into account all possible environmental conditions and all possible agent behaviours? Although some scientists may argue that such an approach is theoretically possible, there is ample evidence that the critical “adaptive” component of some complex adaptive systems may in fact be unmodelable. There is no better example of this than the problems faced by the economist Hyman Minsky in formalising many of his most important ideas.

Luciano Lampi's curator insight, March 19, 2013 9:02 AM

Interesting to read!

Léonne Willems's curator insight, March 25, 2013 4:27 PM

Another way to think about environmental influences at the source of tensions at work (as opposed to individual lack of employee performance or motivational problems). Are these 'tensions' actually symptoms of a system out of balance? Are these tensions the real gems for organisational steering? Check out how Holacracy capitalises just on that! 

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Free online Model Thinking course with Scott Page starts today

Scott Page of University of Michigan offers his "Model Thinking" class again for free!  Check out his and many other Complex Systems course being offered through coursera---major universities are allowing their profs to teach these classes for free--many subjects offered.  Pass it on!

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Complex systems made simple

Complex systems made simple | COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN NATIONAL SECURITY | Scoop.it
Network scientists at Northeastern have designed an algorithm capable of identifying the subset of components that reveal a complex system's overall nature.

Via Alejandro J. Alvarez S.
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Self-Organizing Networked Systems: You don’t cite me anymore - Scientific publications and the ravages of time

Self-Organizing Networked Systems: You don’t cite me anymore - Scientific publications and the ravages of time | COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN NATIONAL SECURITY | Scoop.it
Self-Organizing Networked Systems -- A new paradigm for controlling networked systems
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You Can’t Put Old Wine in New Bottles: The Effect of Newcomers on Coordination in Groups

You Can’t Put Old Wine in New Bottles: The Effect of Newcomers on Coordination in Groups | COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN NATIONAL SECURITY | Scoop.it

A common finding in social sciences is that member change hinders group functioning and performance. However, questions remain as to why member change negatively affects group performance and what are some ways to alleviate the negative effects of member change on performance? To answer these questions we conduct an experiment in which we investigate the effect of newcomers on a group’s ability to coordinate efficiently. Participants play a coordination game in a four-person group for the first part of the experiment, and then two members of the group are replaced with new participants, and the newly formed group plays the game for the second part of the experiment. Our results show that the arrival of newcomers decreases trust among group members and this decrease in trust negatively affects group performance. Knowing the performance history of the arriving newcomers mitigates the negative effect of their arrival, but only when newcomers also know the oldtimers performance history. Surprisingly, in groups that performed poorly prior to the newcomers’ arrival, the distrust generated by newcomers is mainly between oldtimers about each other rather than about the newcomers.


Via Ashish Umre, Complexity Digest
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Dataset of 13 billion clicks available | Center for Complex Networks and Systems Research

Dataset of 13 billion clicks available | Center for Complex Networks and Systems Research | COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN NATIONAL SECURITY | Scoop.it

To foster the study of the structure and dynamics of Web traffic networks, we are making available to the research community a large Click Dataset of about 13 billion HTTP requests collected at Indiana University. During about seven months of collection in 2006-2007, our system generated data at a rate of about 60 million requests per day, or about 30 GB/day of raw data. We hope that this data will help develop a better understanding of user behavior online and create more realistic models of Web traffic. The potential applications of this data include improved designs for networks, sites, and server software; more accurate forecasting of traffic trends; classification of sites based on the patterns of activity they inspire; and improved ranking algorithms for search results.


Via Complexity Digest
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Fil Menczer's comment, January 31, 2013 9:24 AM
Actually it turns out the dataset has 53+ billion records and it spans until 2010.
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Perspectives on a Hyperconnected World: Insights from the Science of Complexity

by the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Complex Systems

 

Every day our world becomes more complex and dynamic. The global population continues to rise with urbanization occurring at an exponential rate. Economic growth brings people from diverse cultures and regions into contact with one another through increased trade and travel. The Internet and social media now seem to connect each person to everyone else, and to make information available to all.


Via Complexity Digest
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Ellie Kesselman Wells's comment, January 27, 2013 1:43 PM
They were quite wise not to explicitly mention Davos. This is what should be discussed at Davos, not celebrity photos! Thank you for sharing with us, Dr. Nooo!
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The 11th International Symposium on Autonomous Decentralized Systems (ISADS 2013)

The 11th International Symposium on Autonomous Decentralized Systems (ISADS 2013) | COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN NATIONAL SECURITY | Scoop.it

June 15, 2012: Workshop and panel proposals due.

July 31, 2012: Acceptance notification for workshop proposals.

September 24, 2012: Final papers due. NEW EXTENDED DATE!

November 15, 2012: Acceptance notification for paper authors and panel organizers.

December 31, 2012: Camera-ready copies of accepted papers and panelist position papers due.

 

Opportunities and challenges for implementing highly complex, efficient, and dependable business and control systems have been steadily increasing, driven by the continuous growth in the power, intelligence, adaptiveness and openness of technologies and standards applied in computing, communication and control systems. Dynamically changing social and economic situations demand the next-generation of systems to be based on adaptive, reusable, and internet and Web-enabled technologies and applications. Such systems are expected to have the characteristics of living systems composed of largely autonomous and decentralized components. Such systems are called Autonomous Decentralized Systems (ADS). The International Symposium on Autonomous Decentralized System (ISADS) has been the premier events in the past twenty-two years to have successfully addressed these challenges. The 11th ISADS 2013 will continue to focus on the advancements and innovations in ADS concepts, technologies, applications strategic issues, and other related topics. The special topic for ISADS 2013 is the smart cities and e-applications.

 


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6 mechanisms that will help create the global brain | Trends in the Living Networks

Ross Dawson is a smart guy. The six mechanisms in the paper he discusses are: an idea ecology, a web of dependencies, an intellectual supply chain, a collaborative deliberation, a radically fluid virtual organization, a multi-user game. -- Howard

 

"One of the many reasons humanity is at an inflection point is that the age-old dream of the “global brain” is finally becoming a reality.

I explored the idea in my book Living Networks, and at more length in my piece Autopoiesis and how hyper-connectivity is literally bringing the networks to life.

Today, my work on crowdsourcing is largely focused on the emerging mechanisms that allow us to create better results from mass participation.

Some of the best work being done in the space is at the MIT Center for Collective Intelligence. A few of their researchers (including founder Thomas Malone) have just written a short paper Programming the Global Brain.

I don’t think “programming” is the best metaphor. I prefer to think about the enabling structures and mechanisms out of which collective intelligence will be created.

However programming can be a useful frame, and in the paper the authors propose six programming metaphors that will facilitate the formation of the global brain:"


Via Howard Rheingold, Ankur Dnyanmote
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Complex Networks 2013

Second International Workshop on Complex Networks and their Applications

COMPLEX NETWORKS 2013

Kyoto, Japan, 2-5 December 2013

https://sites.google.com/site/complexnetworks13/


Via Complexity Digest
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anyone want to go to Japan?

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franz contemplates complexity

A brief animated video on complex systems theory.

Via Anne Caspari
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Anne Caspari's curator insight, February 1, 2013 10:32 AM

this is great food for thought; nicely done! 

Spaceweaver's curator insight, February 3, 2013 10:06 AM

Excellent introduction and some reference books at the end

Luciano Lampi's curator insight, March 25, 2013 9:48 AM

a cool start...

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First cyber war manual released

First cyber war manual released | COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN NATIONAL SECURITY | Scoop.it
NATO's manual possibly the first step towards a cyber 'Geneva Convention'.

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The nature of collective intelligence

Digital data stem from our own personal and social cognitive processes and thus express them in one way or another. But we still don’t have any scientific tools to make sense of the data flows produced by online creative conversations at the scale of the digital medium as a whole.

 

Presentation by Pierre Levy


Via Viktor Markowski, Complexity Digest, Alejandro J. Alvarez S.
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Viktor Markowski's curator insight, March 2, 2013 11:57 AM

45 minute video presentation supported by slides on the nature of collective intelligence and the philosophical and technical construct behind the next level of the internet as a global mind.

Luciano Lampi's curator insight, March 22, 2013 2:15 PM

Pierre Levy, c´est toujours très intéressant!

Bernard Ryefield's curator insight, June 18, 2013 2:32 PM

Pierre Lévy invented IEML; think semantic web

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7th Annual French Complex Systems Summer School

7th Annual French Complex Systems Summer School | COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN NATIONAL SECURITY | Scoop.it

7th Annual French Complex Systems Summer School

"Collective Behaviour and Mobility in Complex Systems"
Le Havre, July 9th to 18th, 2013

http://www.iscpif.fr/CSSS2013


Via Complexity Digest
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New research to uncover nuances of networks

New research to uncover nuances of networks | COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN NATIONAL SECURITY | Scoop.it

When a species disappears from a region, the rest of the ecosystem may flourish or collapse, depending on the role that species played. When a storm rolls across the coast, the power grid might reconfigure itself quickly or leave cities dark for days. A snowstorm might mean business as usual in a hardy city and a severe food shortage in another, depending on the distribution strategies of residents.

 

Each of these systems is a kind of network, with thousands of members and relationships linking them. Understanding how networks behave is key to ensuring their functioning.

 

With current network theory, scientists can predict a few simple trends, such as which web pages are likely to get more hits over time. Mostly, current models “flatten” the system to a list of points (nodes) and connections between them (edges). But the features that bestow a network’s true cohesion and character – such as the nuanced predator-prey dynamics in an ecosystem, hierarchies in a social community, or critical hubs in a distribution system – have eluded quantification.

 

A new four-year, $2.9 million grant from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is supporting SFI research that will, the researchers hope, propel their understanding of networks to the next level.


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Emergent Sensing of Complex Environments by Mobile Animal Groups

Science 1 February 2013: 
Vol. 339 no. 6119 pp. 574-576 
DOI: 10.1126/science.1225883

 

ABSTRACT

The capacity for groups to exhibit collective intelligence is an often-cited advantage of group living. Previous studies have shown that social organisms frequently benefit from pooling imperfect individual estimates. However, in principle, collective intelligence may also emerge from interactions between individuals, rather than from the enhancement of personal estimates. Here, we reveal that this emergent problem solving is the predominant mechanism by which a mobile animal group responds to complex environmental gradients. Robust collective sensing arises at the group level from individuals modulating their speed in response to local, scalar, measurements of light and through social interaction with others. This distributed sensing requires only rudimentary cognition and thus could be widespread across biological taxa, in addition to being appropriate and cost-effective for robotic agents.

 


Via Complexity Digest
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Shady El Damaty's curator insight, February 4, 2013 6:22 AM

Fascinating paper published in February's edition of Science. We often consider intelligence as an emergent phenomena at the scale of individual organisms.  Yet, complex social systems and structures may also exhibit behavior reflecting the predispositions of its members as a whole.  Perhaps we can view the dynamics of societies from this scaled perspective to better understand the issues facing our modern society.

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Tactical Mobile Clouds and Coalition Operations

Tactical Mobile Clouds and Coalition Operations | COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN NATIONAL SECURITY | Scoop.it
#NetworkScience Submitted by COL Kevin Huggins Problem statement US experience with the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan has illuminated the need for information sharing. In particular, soldiers a...
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Spreaders in Complex Networks

#NetworkScience Some members of the Algorithmic Network Science Group in the Network Science Center have been studying identifying spreaders in complex networks. We have mostly focused on the Susce...
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Le 4e Oeil: Appel à communications

Le 4e Oeil: Appel à communications | COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN NATIONAL SECURITY | Scoop.it

APPEL à COMMUNICATIONS
Colloque organisé dans le cadre du Congrès de l’ACFAS
(colloque # 456)

7 et 8 mai 2012
Palais des Congrès de Montréal

Accompagnement, transformation et intelligence collective-
Les pratiques du changement émergent: enjeux théoriques et d’intervention

Dans la turbulence actuelle, les enjeux du monde du travail se traduisent par des troubles multiples, tels les phénomènes de souffrance au travail, de maladie mentale ou de perte de sens. La gravité de la situation appelle à réinterroger les cadres d’intervention actuels afin de faire le point sur leurs ancrages et sur les pratiques. Alors que les jeunes générations créent des entreprises au mode de gestion horizontal, on constate qu’il est le reflet d’une pression sociale vers une plus grande participation aux prises de décision, un appel au dialogue, un besoin d’écoute et une volonté de trouver des espaces de parole. Si les motifs sont clairs, les processus communicationnels qui incarnent ces aspirations démocratiques commencent à interpeler l’organisation. Il ne s’agit plus de dicter, de conduire ou de contrôler le changement, mais de susciter et de mobiliser le savoir. Cet éclatement du cadre managérial bouleverse le pouvoir et les relations, en mobilisant les capacités créatives et l’intelligence collective (IC). Comprise comme la capacité d’une organisation à unir les intelligences et les connaissances pour atteindre un objectif ainsi que la capacité d’un collectif à se poser des questions et à chercher les réponses, l’IC se manifeste lorsque les capacités cognitives et affectives sont mobilisées en mode de co-création. L’animation d’une telle dynamique appelle des processus particuliers. Il s’agit ici d’explorer ces pratiques à la lumière de la montée de l’intérêt pour l’IC, donc pour le changement émergent; de faire le point sur les pratiques de soutien, d’intervention, d’animation et de mobilisation de l’IC. À partir d’une ontologie processuelle de l’émergence, on interrogera la diversité, l’altérité et l’identité des personnes et du collectif à travers des modèles génératifs de transformation, comme la théorie U (Scharmer, 2007), incluant les enjeux éthiques, les ancrages dans la complexité et des thèmes tels que sensible, dialogue, conscience, présence et créativité, le tout à la lumière des enjeux et des besoins en matière d’innovation sociale. Concernant les pratiques émergentes, les thèmes portant sur l’innovation ouverte, l’innovation issue de la pratique, notamment via les Change Lab, et sa mobilisation via les forums ouverts, les world cafés et les démarches appréciatives sont au cœur du thème de ce colloque.


Via Jacques CLOS, Ankur Dnyanmote
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Scientists show how social interaction and teamwork lead to human intelligence

Scientists show how social interaction and teamwork lead to human intelligence | COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN NATIONAL SECURITY | Scoop.it

Scientists have discovered proof that the evolution of intelligence and larger brain sizes can be driven by cooperation and teamwork, shedding new light on the origins of what it means to be human. The study appears online in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B and was led by scientists at Trinity College Dublin: PhD student, Luke McNally and Assistant Professor Dr Andrew Jackson at the School of Natural Sciences in collaboration with Dr Sam Brown of the University of Edinburgh.

 

The researchers constructed computer models of artificial organisms, endowed with artificial brains, which played each other in classic games, such as the 'Prisoner's Dilemma', that encapsulate human social interaction. They used 50 simple brains, each with up to 10 internal processing and 10 associated memory nodes.

 

The brains were pitted against each other in these classic games. The game was treated as a competition, and just as real life favours successful individuals, so the best of these digital organisms which was defined as how high they scored in the games, less a penalty for the size of their brains were allowed to reproduce and populate the next generation of organisms.


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$60 Million Venture To Bring Harvard, MIT Online For The Masses

$60 Million Venture To Bring Harvard, MIT Online For The Masses | COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IN NATIONAL SECURITY | Scoop.it
"I believe we can work with a billion people around the world and change education in a fundamental way as it really hasn’t changed in 1,000 years," Anant Agarwal, who stepped down as head of MIT's Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Lab...
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