This talk draws on the latest global modeling research to construct a sweeping thought experiment on what our world will be like in 2050. The World in 2050 combines the lessons of geography and history with state-of-the-art model projections and analytical data-everything from climate dynamics and resource stocks to age distributions and economic growth projections.

Laurence C. Smith  takes as big forces demographics, natural resources, globalization and climate change.

- slowing but still very fast growth rate. developed world: dropping

aging: esp. china

- urbanization: demand for electricity, metals,... (esp. growing word)

   -> relying on globalized companies <-> forgetting basic skills
- water stressed regions will be even more so ("resource wars")

- 1893: phyiscs of climate change prooven -> real problem

   -> greatest uncertainty in prediction

   -> long time to see the results / difference between actions

   -> multiplied in north regions ("greenland-potatoes", polar->grizzly)
   -> arctic ice shelf; shipping - warmer winters

   -> greenland cruiseship tourism <-> permafrost, ice roads melting

- oil and gas in the arctic (est. 13%oil, 30%gas prv. undisc.)

   -> conflicts about territory <-> UNCLOS article 76, geol. diplomacy

   -> Russias oil / gas importance <-> unconventional sources

   -> Canada

- current trend of globalization continuing (north countries =/ Russia)

 

 


Via Martin Daumiller