2016 will be a tough election for the GOP to win. 2024 might be impossible.
BY CHRIS CILLIZZA
April 22 at 2:56 pm
It's no secret that Republicans have a demographic problem when it comes to national elections.
In 2012, roughly nine in every ten people who voted for Mitt Romney were white --even as the white vote continued its steady decline as a percentage of the overall electorate. He got crushed among Hispanics and African American voters.
Writing at Commentary magazine on Monday, former Bush Administration official Pete Wehner concludes:
It’s an undeniable empirical truth that the GOP coalition is shrinking, and it’s shrinking in the aftermath of two fairly decisive defeats, with the latter coming against a president whose policies were judged by many Americans to have been failures. Which means the Republican task isn’t simply to nominate a candidate who can fire up the base; it is to find principled conservative leaders who can win over voters who are not now voting for the GOP at the presidential level.
The problem Wehner -- and many other senior strategists and some elected officials within the GOP -- identify is not only incredibly serious as it relates to the party's ability to win national election but is also almost certain to get worse unless something big changes. As in, the 2016 presidential election will be a tough one for Republicans to win given the demographic changes in the country but it won't be nearly as difficult for them as the 2024 or 2028 elections could be.
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