This new report by the Carbon Tracker Initiative and the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at LSE calls for regulators, governments and investors to re-evaluate energy business models against carbon budgets, to prevent $6trillion carbon bubble in the next decade.
Unburnable carbon 2013: Wasted capital and stranded assets has revealed that fossil fuel reserves already far exceed the carbon budget to avoid global warming of 2°C, but in spite of this, spent $674billion last year to find and develop new potentially stranded assets.
They conclude that “Between 60-80% of coal, oil and gas reserves of publicly listed companies are ‘unburnable’ if the world is to have a chance of not exceeding global warming of 2°C.”
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For the first time in human history, concentrations of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) could rise above 400 parts per million (ppm) for sustained lengths of time throughout much of the Northern Hemisphere as soon as May 2013.
To provide a resource for understanding the implications of rising CO2 levels, Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego is providing daily updates of the “Keeling Curve,” the record of atmospheric CO2 measured at Hawaii’s Mauna Loa. These iconic measurements, begun by Charles David (Dave) Keeling, a world-leading authority on atmospheric greenhouse gas accumulation and Scripps climate science pioneer, comprise the longest continuous record of CO2 in the world, starting from 316 ppm in March 1958 and approaching 400 ppm today with a familiar saw-tooth pattern. For the past 800,000 years, CO2 levels never exceeded 300 parts per million. “I wish it weren’t true, but it looks like the world is going to blow through the 400-ppm level without losing a beat,” said Scripps geophysicist Ralph Keeling, who has taken over the Keeling Curve measurement from his late father. “At this pace we’ll hit 450 ppm within a few decades.”
Athena Drakou's insight:
For the past 800,000 years, CO2 levels never exceeded 300 parts per million.
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A new report co-authored by Michael McElroy, the Gilbert Butler Professor of Environmental Studies, and D. James Baker, a former administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, connects global climate change, extreme weather, and national security. During the next decade, the report concludes, climate change could have wide-reaching effects on everything from food, water, and energy supplies to critical infrastructure and economic security.
“Over the last century, the trend has been toward urbanization — to concentrate people in smaller areas,” McElroy said. “We’ve built an infrastructure — whether it’s where we build our homes or where we put our roads and bridges — that fits with that trend. If the weather pattern suddenly changes in a serious way, it could create very large problems. Bridges may be in the wrong place, or sea walls may not be high enough.” Possible effects on critical infrastructure, however, only scratch the surface of the security concerns.
On an international scale, the report points to recent events, such as flooding in Pakistan and sustained drought in eastern Africa, that may be tied to changing weather patterns. How the United States responds to such disasters — whether by delivering humanitarian aid or through technical support — could affect security.
“By recognizing the immediacy of these risks, the U.S. can enhance its own security and help other countries do a better job of preparing for and coping with near-term climate extremes,” Baker said.
Athena Drakou's insight:
“The bottom line is that our national security depends on our ability to sustain and augment our scientific and technical capacity to monitor unfolding events and forewarn of important changes. The imminent increase in extreme events will affect water availability, energy use, food distribution, and critical infrastructure — all elements of both domestic and international security.” Delete the scoop?
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The glaciers in the tropical Andes shrunk between 30 and 50% in 30 years, which represents the highest rate observed over the last three centuries. IRD researchers and their partners(1) recently published a summary which chronicles the history of these glaciers since their maximum extension, reached between 1650 and 1730 of our era, in the middle of the Little Ice Age*. The faster melting is due to the rapid climate change which has occurred in the tropics since the 1950s, and in particular since the end of the 1970s, leading to an average temperature rise of 0.7°C in this part of the Andes. At the current pace of their retreat, small glaciers could disappear within the next 10 to 15 years, affecting water supply for the populations. For the first time, a study conducted by IRD researchers and their partners(1), recently published in the journal The Cryosphere, provides a retrospective of more than three centuries on glacier evolution in the entire tropical Andean region (3).
Athena Drakou's insight:
Since their maximum extension, reached between 1650 and 1750, during the Little Ice Age, the tropical Andean glaciers have gradually retreated. Over the last 30 years, however, their decline has taken dramatic proportions. This summary clearly shows the peculiarity of these last decades, with melting speeds that had never been reached before in 300 years: the surface areas of glaciers in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia were reduced from 30-50% since the end of the 1970s and up to 80-100% in extreme cases. This new study confirms the acceleration of climate change in this part of the world at the end of the 20th century. Delete the scoop?
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The 5th Assembly of the World Bank’s Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) is coming to an end after rich and rewarding meetings in Washington DC this week. I had the opportunity to present China’s final Market Readiness Proposal (MRP) (pdf), or in more simple language, China’s proposal to build a national emission trading system (ETS). Together with China, the PMR also received proposals from Chile, Costa Rica and Mexico on their initiatives.
From the Chinese perspective, our MRP serves as a summary of the Government’s initial thoughts on how a domestic ETS would be established to cover the whole country. For this to happen, a lot of work needs to be done, and this proposal provides a framework and roadmap to guide us on our journey. We are expecting domestic and international institutions, experts and stakeholders from different levels to be involved in this design process. Above all, we hope to draw on the experience of existing carbon markets around the world as well as from the seven pilot ETSs - comprising five cities and two provinces - set to start this year in China. Facilitating continuous technical dialogues, PMR serves as a knowledge exchange platform for our team from China and all the participant countries Delete the scoop?
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OVER the past 15 years air temperatures at the Earth’s surface have been flat while greenhouse-gas emissions have continued to soar. The world added roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010. That is about a quarter of all the CO₂ put there by humanity since 1750. And yet, as James Hansen, the head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, observes, “the five-year mean global temperature has been flat for a decade.”
Temperatures fluctuate over short periods, but this lack of new warming is a surprise. Ed Hawkins, of the University of Reading, in Britain, points out that surface temperatures since 2005 are already at the low end of the range of projections derived from 20 climate models (see chart 1). If they remain flat, they will fall outside the models’ range within a few years.
Athena Drakou's insight:
A well- researched article published this week at The Economist about climate sensitivity that is the ways climate reacts in carbon dioxide levels. A surprise really for an economic journal to explore such a technical topic, but climate sensitively has become a very hot topic lately. Research shows that over the past decade the climate sensitivity is relatively slow. The article describes well the uncertainties in model predictions of future climate as well as individual climatic influences and feedback loops that amplify or dampen global warming.
Two comments.The author touches briefly the role of the oceans, the slowed global surface seawater temperatures, specifically, but does not discuss the “missing heat” * that is the accelerated warming of the deep ocean and how this will affect global warming.
The other thing that really concerns me is the author’s suggestion that it might be better off adapting climate change instead of trying to mitigate, if the equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2°C to a doubling of carbon dioxide. This could be a dangerous policy for the future greenhouse gas emissions. The best way is to advance policies (locally and globally) that reduce our emissions while preparing to adapt to a hotter world Delete the scoop?
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WASHINGTON (AP) — A new study looking at 11,000 years of climate temperatures shows the world in the middle of a dramatic U-turn, lurching from near-record cooling to a heat spike.
Research released Thursday in the journal Science uses fossils of tiny marine organisms to reconstruct global temperatures back to the end of the last ice age. It shows how the globe for several thousands of years was cooling until an unprecedented reversal in the 20th century.
Scientists say it is further evidence that modern-day global warming isn't natural, but the result of rising carbon dioxide emissions that have rapidly grown since the Industrial Revolution began roughly 250 years ago.
The decade of 1900 to 1910 was one of the coolest in the past 11,300 years — cooler than 95 percent of the other years, the marine fossil data suggest. Yet 100 years later, the decade of 2000 to 2010 was one of the warmest, said study lead author Shaun Marcottof Oregon State University. Global thermometer records only go back to 1880, and those show the last decade was the hottest for this more recent time period.
"In 100 years, we've gone from the cold end of the spectrum to the warm end of the spectrum," Marcott said. "We've never seen something this rapid. Even in the ice age the global temperature never changed this quickly."
Athena Drakou's insight:
Did humans delayed the onset of the next ice age and are now heading into an unknown future where they control the thermostat of the planet? Delete the scoop?
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Academic paper largely clears President Obama of blame over failure to pass climate legislation through Congress
The author argues that there is little prospect Barack Obama will put climate change on the top of his agenda in his second term. Theda Skocpol in effect accuses the DC-based environmental groups of political malpractice, saying they were blind to extreme Republican opposition to their efforts. Environmental groups overlooked growing opposition to environmental protections among conservatives voters and, underestimated the rising force of the Tea Party, believing – wrongly, as it turned out – they could still somehow win over Republican members of Congress through "insider grand bargaining". Delete the scoop?
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This year's World Economic Forum Global Risks Report reminds us of the many ways in which systems inevitably affect one another in our interdependent world.
More important, the report warns of the dangers of multiple systems failing. Two of the world’s most fundamental systems, for example, are the economy and the environment; their interplay underpins the first of three case studies of risk in this year’s report.
The 1,000 experts who responded to the WEF’s annual Global Risks Perception Survey, on which the report is based, ranked climate-change adaptation as their top environmental concern in the coming decade. This reflects a wider shift in thinking about the climate, with growing acceptance that we are now locked in to some degree of global temperature change and need to adapt locally – for example, by strengthening our critical infrastructure systems in order to boost their resilience to extreme weather events. Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-world-economic-forum-s-global-risks-assessment-by-lee-howell#JAmcDS3FoDp6P2WW.99 Delete the scoop?
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By comparing reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and sea level over the past 40 million years, researchers based at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton have found that greenhouse gas concentrations similar to the present (almost 400 parts per million) were systematically associated with sea levels at least nine metres above current levels. The study determined the ‘natural equilibrium’ sea level for CO2 concentrations ranging between ice-age values of 180 parts per million and ice-free values of more than 1,000 parts per million. It takes many centuries for such an equilibrium to be reached, therefore whilst the study does not predict any sea level value for the coming century, it does illustrate what sea level might be expected if climate were stabilized at a certain CO2 level for several centuries. Lead author Dr Gavin Foster, from Ocean and Earth Science at the University of Southampton which is based at the centre, said, “A specific case of interest is one in which CO2 levels are kept at 400 to 450 parts per million, because that is the requirement for the often mentioned target of a maximum of two degrees global warming.” The researchers compiled more than two thousand pairs of CO2 and sea level data points, spanning critical periods within the last 40 million years. Some of these had climates warmer than present, some similar, and some colder. They also included periods during which global temperatures were increasing, as well as periods during which temperatures were decreasing.
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Dr Gavin Foster, the lead author of this paper, is the project coordinator of the "Descent into the Icehouse" research project http://descentintotheicehouse.org.uk/ Delete the scoop?
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With climate talks inching along, gains in energy efficiency could slow the rise in emissions.
Athena Drakou's insight:
The World Energy Outlook 2012 report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that the global infrastructure could lock in enough carbon emissions by 2017 to exceed the 2 °C goal, unless facilities such as power plants, factories and buildings are expensively retrofitted or prematurely retired. But the IEA found that improving energy efficiency could give the world another five years to change course and begin the transition to renewables and other low-carbon energies.
Globally, energy use is projected to increase by more than one-third by 2035, despite promises by Japan, Europe, China and the United States to curb demand. In an ‘efficient world’ scenario, with more countries embracing bigger efficiency goals, the projected energy demand could be cut by half. For perspective, the IEA estimates that the modest efficiency increases achieved between 1980 and 2010 reduced global energy demand by 35% — roughly equivalent to the energy currently consumed by China and the United States combined.
The IEA suggests that more-aggressive efficiency measures, such as a broad shift toward efficient appliances, vehicles, homes and factories, would cost an extra US$11.8 trillion between now and 2035. But the pay-off would be substantial: direct fuel expenditures would fall by $17.5 trillion, and investments in energy infrastructure by nearly $5.9 trillion. Those savings would be reinvested elsewhere, helping to increase global economic output by some $18 trillion. Unfortunately, the potential gains are dispersed throughout a complex marketplace that tends to reward short-term thinking. Delete the scoop?
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The United States could eliminate the need for crude oil by using a combination of coal, natural gas and non-food crops to make synthetic fuel, a team of Princeton researchers has found.
Besides economic and national security benefits, the plan has potential environmental advantages. Because plants absorb carbon dioxide to grow, the United States could cut vehicle greenhouse emissions by as much as 50 percent in the next several decades using non-food crops to create liquid fuels, the researchers said. Synthetic fuels would be an easy fit for the transportation system because they could be used directly in automobile engines and are almost identical to fuels refined from crude oil. That sets them apart from currently available biofuels, such as ethanol, which have to be mixed with gas or require special engines.
In a series of scholarly articles over the past year, a team led by Christodoulos Floudas, a professor of chemical and biological engineering at Princeton, evaluated scenarios in which the United States could power its vehicles with synthetic fuels rather than relying on oil. Floudas' team also analyzed the impact that synthetic fuel plants were likely to have on local areas and identified locations that would not overtax regional electric grids or water supplies. Delete the scoop?
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A large tanker carrying liquified natural gas (LNG) is set to become the first ship of its type to sail across the Arctic. The carrier, Ob River, left Norway in November and has sailed north of Russia on its way to Japan. The specially equipped tanker is due to arrive in early December and will shave 20 days off the journey. The owners say that changing climate conditions and a volatile gas market make the Arctic transit profitable. Long-term preparationBuilt in 2007 with a strengthened hull, the Ob River can carry up to 150,000 cubic metres of gas. The tanker was loaded with LNG at Hammerfest in the north of Norway on 7 November and set sail across the Barents Sea. It has been accompanied by a Russian nuclear-powered icebreaker for much of its voyage.
The ship, with an international crew of 40, has been chartered from its Greek owners Dynagas by the Russian Gazprom energy giant. It says it has been preparing for the trip for over a year.
"It's an extraordinarily interesting adventure," Tony Lauritzen, commercial director at Dynagas, told BBC News. "The people on board have been seeing polar bears on the route. We've had the plans for a long time and everything has gone well." Delete the scoop?
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Christof Lehmann (nsnbc)-. On 8 – 9 April a conference was held at the European Parliament, under the title “Beyond Theories of Weather Modification – Civil Society against Geo-Engineering”. The conference reassessed a 1999 resolution and lack from both the sides of legislators and military to safeguard transparency and democratic control over classified programs, which affect entire populations without consent, democratic influence, or access to verifiable information and data. The conference began on 8 April, with an official screening of the documentary “Why in the World are they Spraying ?” of the US-American filmmaker Michael Murphy.
Athena Drakou's insight:
The motion for a resolution has been ignored since 1999 and until this day, which elicits an acute lack of democratic rights, democratic instruments, as well as an acute lack of transparency within the European Union. Delete the scoop?
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The fate of Europe’s struggling carbon market could be decided by a second vote on proposed reforms, according to the EU’s top climate officials.
Speaking at a meeting of Environment Ministers hosted by the Irish Government, holders of the revolving presidency, Ireland’s Environment Minister Phil Hogan said it was time for people to decide if they wanted the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) or not.
“We’re very anxious to get an agreement. We’re either going to have an ETS or not,” he said.
After rejecting a plan to withhold 900m carbon credits from the market in an effort to lift the price, the reforms have been sent to the European Parliament’s Environment Committee for refinement.
A new plan will be sent back to Parliament for a vote, potentially as early as June. It would then be passed on to the European Council, made up of its 27 member governments, for final approval.
“If we’re interested in having an ETS system, and it’s certainly under pressure at the moment, we need some proposals we can get agreement on, otherwise we are into a regulatory approach,” said Hogan. “The alternative, a new regulatory regime has not yet concentrated the minds of some Council members and some MEPs.”
Climate action commissioner Connie Hedegaard warned against the prospect of moving away from a uniform carbon market across the member states to a regime led by domestic laws. Delete the scoop?
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By Paul Brown, Climate News Network The world’s largest concentrated solar power plant opened in March in the middle of Abu Dhabi’s western region, amid the country’s giant oil fields. The $600 million plant’s hundreds of mirrors direct sunlight towards towers full of water. These are heated to drive steam turbines that provide enough electricity for thousands of homes.
In a country whose vast wealth is generated by oil, adopting a new technology that produces only 100 megawatts of power — about a tenth the amount of a large coal-fired plant — may seem a mere token, but it is part of a much larger industrial strategy for the region.
Serious money and political clout in Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa is aimed at building hundreds of similar plants. The potential is so great that all the electricity requirements of these desert countries — and a good slice of Europe’s — could be met by 2050.
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The UK wheat harvest is set to be a third lower than normal after a wet winter and freezing start to the year, putting further financial pressure on farmers and potentially driving up food prices. Via International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center Delete the scoop?
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Poland has voiced dismay after the European Court of Justice rejected a legal complaint it made about the EU's mechanism for cutting carbon emissions.
About 90% of Poland's electricity is generated from burning coal, a fuel blamed for increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere.
Poland says the EU's distribution of CO2 emission permits is unfair because it uses gas-based benchmarks.
But the ECJ in Luxembourg said the EU Commission had not acted unfairly.
"The Commission did not breach the principle of equal treatment when it decided to treat uniformly installations that are in different situations, due to the use of different fuels, when determining the benchmarks," the court ruling said on Thursday.
In a statement to BBC News, Polish environment ministry spokesman Pawel Mikusek said: "The distribution of allowances based on gas-based benchmarks doesn't fit the Polish economy.
"Sometimes in legal terms something looks good, but in real life it doesn't work."
Mr Mikusek, Polish environmental minister, said the CO2 allowance system, managed by the European Commission, "gives a clear advantage to companies not as heavily based on coal as we are". Well, that was the idea !
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Microscopic ocean algae called coccolithophores are providing clues about the impact of climate change both now and many millions of years ago. The study found that their response to environmental change varies between species, in terms of how quickly they grow.
Coccolithophores, a type of plankton, are not only widespread in the modern ocean but they are also prolific in the fossil record because their tiny calcium carbonate shells are preserved on the seafloor after death – the vast chalk cliffs of Dover, for example, are almost entirely made of fossilised coccolithophores.
In article, published in Nature Geoscience this week, the scientists report that they responded in different ways to a rapid climate warming event that occurred 56 million years ago, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM).
“This is a significant step forward and allows us to view fossils as cells rather than dead ‘rocks’. Through this we can begin to understand the environmental controls on oceanic calcification, as well as the potential effects of climate change and ocean acidification.”
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The study “Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales” by Dr Gavin Foster and Professor Eelco Rohling which was this week published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences had quite an impact on the science websites and blogs.
In an interview in Katy Edgington (ScienceOmega.com), Gavin “expounded on the link between CO2 and the seas, and how the correlation exhibited in this study could influence our forecasts for the future.
“The main advantage of looking at the geological past, and what makes it worthwhile, is that it represents a reality – a state which we can be sure the Earth system once occupied,” explained Dr Foster. “It inherently includes all feedbacks involved in the system whether we currently know about them or not; this is not the case with modelling, of course, which draws directly on the state of our current knowledge.”
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Solar stocks were burning up Thursday, led by a 41% share price boom for SunPower , which this week said it sold a pair of massive Southern California solar power plants to a Warren Buffett company.
San Jose-based SunPower said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it sold two Antelope Valley photovoltaic projects to MidAmerican Solar, a subsidiary of MidAmerican Energy Holdings, itself owned by Buffett’s company Berkshire Hathaway. The 579-megawatt pair is still under development.
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There is clear evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is contributing to sea-level rise. In contrast, West Antarctic temperature changes in recent decades remain uncertain. West Antarctica has probably warmed since the 1950s, but there is disagreement regarding the magnitude, seasonality and spatial extent of this warming.
This is primarily because long-term near-surface temperature observations are restricted to Byrd Station in central West Antarctica, a data set with substantial gaps. Here, we present a complete temperature record for Byrd Station, in which observations have been corrected, and gaps have been filled using global reanalysis data and spatial interpolation. The record reveals a linear increase in annual temperature between 1958 and 2010 by 2.4±1.2 °C, establishing central West Antarctica as one of the fastest-warming regions globally. We confirm previous reports of West Antarctic warming, in annual average and in austral spring and winter, but find substantially larger temperature increases.
In contrast to previous studies, we report statistically significant warming during austral summer, particularly in December–January, the peak of the melting season. A continued rise in summer temperatures could lead to more frequent and extensive episodes of surface melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. These results argue for a robust long-term meteorological observation network in the region.
The paper shows that there is significant warming even in summer time in West Antarctica. If current trends continue it will mean more melting on the ice shelves there, leading to their collapse
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Climate Central did the math, and the numbers don't lie: 2012 will be the hottest U.S. year ever recorded.
Last week NOAA announced that 2012 was “likely” to be the warmest year on record in the 48 states, based on temperatures through November. At some point, however, likelihood turns into certainty. Does a warm December push the nation to the point where it is impossible for 2012 to be anything but the warmest year ever recorded in the U.S.?
To answer that question Climate Central did the math, and the results are in.
There is a 99.99999999 percent chance that 2012 will be the hottest year ever recorded in the continental 48 states, based on our analysis of 118 years of temperature records through Dec. 10, 2012.
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From all innovations in 21st century, international development assistance for Less Developed Countries (LDC) escaped scrutiny through elaborate PR stunt. International aid agencies in partnership with ruling tyrants’ of LDCs defy every rule in governace doing essentially noting except justify spending more good money after bad regimes.
Professor William Easterly of Development Research Institute at New York University and a stanch critic of foreign Aid to authoritarian regimes came up with yet another innovative ways to explain the double standard of morality of foreign aid as surveyed on the Social Media.
The survey reinforces part of the cause of poverty; partnering with cause of the poverty (authoritarian regimes) corresponds with their feeling than their rational. Thus, the cause of poverty must be a function of Western version of morality than the rational of good governance.
The bold statement might not sit well for the new breed of development innovators like Gates/Bono of the world (the funders), the apologist on both sides (the middlemen) and the tyrants of Africa (the recipients). Therefore, the conventional morality of helping the poor in partnership with the totalitarian regime is fast running out of oxygen; sustained by innovative PR stunt at this givers end and at a gun point at the receiving end, what a record?
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