China Commentary
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China Commentary
Tracking Military, Geopolitical & Strategic trends to determine China's impact Regionally Globally and Domestically
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Chinese-Made Parts Found in North Korean Missile- Report

Chinese-Made Parts Found in North Korean Missile- Report | China Commentary |
A South Korean military official said that some of the parts used in North Korea’s successful rocket launch last month appear to have been made in China.


A United Nations Security Council resolution stipulates member countries cannot export missile parts to the isolated communist regime of North Korea.

The military of South Korea has analyzed the debris, which includes a fuel tank, from the rocket launch that fell into the Yellow Sea, a source told Japanese broadcaster NHK. The official did not specify which part came from China, but said there was Chinese writing on it. 


The official said that parts appear to have come from four other countries, but did not elaborate. The South Korea-based Yonhap News Agency said that “some European nations” produced the other components. 


But it appears that the components do not violate the Missile Technology Control Regime, which was adopted by 34 nations in 1987 to prevent the proliferation of missile and drone technology, because they are non-core parts, the agency reported.


The South Korean defense ministry believes that the North has made a relative advance in its missile technologies after examining the debris, reported Yonhap. It has placed the range of the rocket at around 6,000 miles—on par with a number of other intercontinental ballistic missiles.


“Most of core components used in the long-range missile were manufactured by North Korea itself,” a high-level official with the defense ministry’s Defense Intelligence Agency told Yonhap.

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Behind China's Roaring Solar Industry

Behind China's Roaring Solar Industry | China Commentary |

Bloomberg reported that Chinese solar stocks had soared based on market expectations that demand in China for alternative energy will increase given the Chinese government's increasing solar capacity targets. Earlier this week, China's National Energy Administration announced its intention to add 10 gigawatts of solar power capacity in 2013, more than twice its current level. According to Barron's and others, China has already begun implementing its ambitious plan to increase installations

Via Pol Bacquet
Pol Bacquet's curator insight, January 11, 2013 10:35 AM

It's just one example of the opportunity ahead.

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Chinese Eugenics Programme-Unnatural selection :The Race War

Chinese Eugenics Programme-Unnatural selection :The Race War | China Commentary |

Geoffrey Miller, Evolutionary psychologist, NYU Stern Business School and University of New Mexico; author of "The Mating Mind and Spent Chinese Eugenics".



China has been running the world's largest and most successful eugenics program for more than thirty years, driving China's ever-faster rise as the global superpower. I worry that this poses some existential threat to Western civilization. Yet the most likely result is that America and Europe linger around a few hundred more years as also-rans on the world-historical stage, nursing our anti-hereditarian political correctness to the bitter end.


When I learned about Chinese eugenics this summer, I was astonished that its population policies had received so little attention. China makes no secret of its eugenic ambitions, in either its cultural history or its government policies.

For generations, Chinese intellectuals have emphasized close ties between the state (guojia), the nation (minzu), the population (renkou), the Han race (zhongzu), and, more recently, the Chinese gene-pool (jiyinku). Traditional Chinese medicine focused on preventing birth defects, promoting maternal health and "fetal education" (taijiao) during pregnancy, and nourishing the father's semen (yangjing) and mother's blood (pingxue) to produce bright, healthy babies (see Frank Dikötter's bookImperfect Conceptions). Many scientists and reformers of Republican China (1912-1949) were ardent Darwinians and Galtonians. They worried about racial extinction (miezhong) and "the science of deformed fetuses" (jitaixue), and saw eugenics as a way to restore China's rightful place as the world's leading civilization after a century of humiliation by European colonialism. The Communist revolution kept these eugenic ideals from having much policy impact for a few decades though. Mao Zedong was too obsessed with promoting military and manufacturing power, and too terrified of peasant revolt, to interfere with traditional Chinese reproductive practices.


But then Deng Xiaoping took power after Mao's death. Deng had long understood that China would succeed only if the Communist Party shifted its attention from economic policy to population policy. He liberalized markets, but implemented the one-child policy —partly to curtail China's population explosion, but also to reduce dysgenic fertility among rural peasants. Throughout the 1980s, Chinese propaganda urges couples to have children "later, longer, fewer, better"—at a later age, with a longer interval between birth, resulting in fewer children of higher quality. With the 1995 Maternal and Infant Health Law (known as the Eugenic Law until Western opposition forced a name change), China forbade people carrying heritable mental or physical disorders from marrying, and promoted mass prenatal ultrasound testing for birth defects. Deng also encouraged assortative mating through promoting urbanization and higher education, so bright, hard-working young people could meet each other more easily, increasing the proportion of children who would be at the upper extremes of intelligence and conscientiousness.


One of Deng's legacies is China's current strategy of maximizing "Comprehensive National Power". This includes economic power (GDP, natural resources, energy, manufacturing, infrastructure, owning America's national debt), military power (cyberwarfare, anti-aircraft-carrier ballistic missiles, anti-satellite missiles), and 'soft power' (cultural prestige, the Beijing Olympics, tourism, Chinese films and contemporary art, Confucius Institutes, Shanghai's skyscrapers). But crucially, Comprehensive National Power also includes "biopower": creating the world's highest-quality human capital in terms of the Chinese population's genes, health, and education (see Governing China's Population by Susan Greenhalgh and Edwin Winkler).


Chinese biopower has ancient roots in the concept of "yousheng" ("good birth"—which has the same literal meaning as "eugenics"). For a thousand years, China has been ruled by a cognitive meritocracy selected through the highly competitive imperial exams. The brightest young men became the scholar-officials who ruled the masses, amassed wealth, attracted multiple wives, and had more children. The current "gaokao" exams for university admission, taken by more than 10 million young Chinese per year, are just the updated version of these imperial exams—the route to educational, occupation, financial, and marital success. With the relaxation of the one-child policy, wealthier couples can now pay a "social fostering fee" (shehui fuyangfei) to have an extra child, restoring China's traditional link between intelligence, education, wealth, and reproductive success.


Chinese eugenics will quickly become even more effective, given its massive investment in genomic research on human mental and physical traits. BGI-Shenzhen employs more than 4,000 researchers. It has far more "next-generation" DNA sequencers that anywhere else in the world, and is sequencing more than 50,000 genomes per year. It recently acquired the California firm Complete Genomics to become a major rival to Illumina.


The BGI Cognitive Genomics Project is currently doing whole-genome sequencing of 1,000 very-high-IQ people around the world, hunting for sets of sets of IQ-predicting alleles. I know because I recently contributed my DNA to the project, not fully understanding the implications. These IQ gene-sets will be found eventually—but will probably be used mostly in China, for China. Potentially, the results would allow all Chinese couples to maximize the intelligence of their offspring by selecting among their own fertilized eggs for the one or two that include the highest likelihood of the highest intelligence. Given the Mendelian genetic lottery, the kids produced by any one couple typically differ by 5 to 15 IQ points. So this method of "preimplantation embryo selection" might allow IQ within every Chinese family to increase by 5 to 15 IQ points per generation. After a couple of generations, it would be game over for Western global competitiveness.


There is unusually close cooperation in China between government, academia, medicine, education, media, parents, and consumerism in promoting a utopian Han ethno-state. Given what I understand of evolutionary behavior genetics, I expect—and hope—that they will succeed. The welfare and happiness of the world's most populous country depends upon it.


My real worry is the Western response. The most likely response, given Euro-American ideological biases, would be a bioethical panic that leads to criticism of Chinese population policy with the same self-righteous hypocrisy that we have shown in criticizing various Chinese socio-cultural policies. But the global stakes are too high for us to act that stupidly and short-sightedly. A more mature response would be based on mutual civilizational respect, asking—what can we learn from what the Chinese are doing, how can we help them, and how can they help us to keep up as they create their brave new world? 

DOSID's insight:

Some more thought provoking and well researched articles on this subject can be found using th links below:


The Big Questions: Eugenics and Ethno-States -


The Coming Eugenic Wars-


China's Eugenics Program: A Billion Person Experiment to Create Humanity 2.0

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Militaristic Chinese Waitress Group Performance Goes Viral

Militaristic Chinese Waitress Group Performance Goes Viral | China Commentary |
A viral video of Chinese waitresses at a Liaoning Dandong Arirang Restaurant in a motivational group performance is criticized as militaristic and brainwashing.


On Sina Weibo:

#Dandong Arirang#

Dandong Arirang Restaurant’s “Show” Attracts Onlookers, So Exaggeratedly Excited As If They Injected Chicken Blood打鸡血]


A video titled “Dandong Arirang Restaurant Training Exercise” has been widely circulated on Sina Weibo. In the video, the excited female waitstaff perform a 15-minute synchronized and exaggerated show. Netizens commented saying: “An army of women that has been completely trained by a militarized management style”, “They are performing with their lives”, “Some people watch and are bowled over by laughter, truly out of the ordinary; Some people see and cry, making money sure isn’t easy”…What do you think?



On leading Chinese video-sharing website Youku, this video accumulated nearly 2 million views in its first day and currently (at time of translation) has nearly 3 million views with over 42k comments spanning over 1400 pages. On leading Chinese microblogging platform Sina Weibo, the most popular posts about the video have thousands of comments and tens of thousands of reshares each.


Select Comments from Youku:



"Taking back the Diaoyu Islands will now depend on this group of girls…"


Our hard work today is for the niubi [boasting] our boss did yesterday! Just what did this company feed these children [young women]!  Not only can we take back the Diaoyu Islands, we no longer have to fear alien invasions anymore!




From China Daily:


Liaoning Dandong Arirang Restaurant’s Annual “Brainwashing Program” is Uncomfortable to Watch


“They’re performing with their lives! Making money sure isn’t easy!” Recently, onWeibo, a video titled “Restaurant Waitresses’s Extreme Joint Performance Captured” went viral on the internet. The “leading performers” in this video are employees of the Liaoning province Dandong Arirang Restaurant. In the video, the female staff neatly lined up in ranks shout passionate slogans and lines, the atmosphere simply stunning. Yesterday, this microblog post had many netizens commenting and forwarding, with netizens claiming this video shows a brainwashing joint performance, and millions of netizens ridiculing this video as essentially being a drama.


Yesterday, this reporter watched this 15 minute and 45 second long video. “With the person on the right as a marker, face and line up to the right!” Under the commands of a woman dressed in a black business suit, a group of women dressed as restaurant service staff began to line up. After lining up, the woman in black loudly shouted: “Reporting to Manager Wang, request performance.” Then the employees shout slogans, started their “daily morning reading”, with the slogans not only referencing company culture but also “quotes” guiding everyone on how they can become successful such as the woman in black loudly asking: “The fastest way to success is…?” and the other employees loudly shouting: “Following the right people, doing the right things.”… Throughout the entire performance, under the instructions and maneuvering of the woman in black, everyone passionately stamped their feet, moving in unison, and there was even a segment where they “passed through the line of fire”. Even as everyone was jumping and shouting, breathing heavily, everyone “advanced forward bravely”.


This video had netizens shocked, with them expressing their various views. Many netizens criticized this kind of company and management style, with netizen “枪与红玫瑰” saying, “At first I thought it was funny at first, but then I felt uncomfortable, like it was a multilevel marketing event. This kind of company is really lousy, not valuing employees’ dignity, and inevitably will not achieve long-term success. Netizen “LoBer-V-E” also said, “This simply cannot be understood using the line of thinking possessed by normal people. Facing this kind of waitstaff will truly make you lose your appetite.”


Yesterday, this reporter called the Liaoning province Dandong Arirang restaurant. A worker of this restaurant told this reporter that the video spreading online is indeed a video of their restaurant employees’ team performance, and is a program for the restaurant’s annual meeting this year. With regards to this, well-known Southwestern psychologist Dr. Chen Zhilin expressed during an interview with this journalist that, with corporate culture that relies long-term on this kind of exaggerated show-like “motivational” activity, employees will not only have conflicts but even more will bring their discontent and resentment to their work, instead lowering work efficiency and service quality.





DOSID's insight:

We have taken the liberty to Scoop / Repost this content in Full. Just in case the said "content" is “made to disappear”. Being “made to disappear” is a full time industry in certain parts of the world.

DOSID's comment, January 17, 2013 11:21 AM
Video link on you tube:
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Xi questions propaganda chief’s handling of censorship row

Xi questions propaganda chief’s handling of censorship row | China Commentary |
BEIJING--In an apparent attempt to quell the uproar over censorship, Chinese leader Xi Jinping expressed displeasure toward the media control division and said he would not punish journalists who disobeyed its latest order, sources said.


Xi, general secretary of the Communist Party of China, appears to have given top priority to preventing the row from expanding further and threatening his new leadership installed in November.


Arguments for free speech erupted after the reform-oriented Southern Weekly based in Guangzhou, Guangdong province, was forced to rewrite its New Year edition before it was published on Jan. 3.


The propaganda department then instructed all major newspapers to toe the party line concerning the censorship of the Southern Weekly.


At a meeting in Zhongnanhai in Beijing on the night of Jan. 9, Xi, visibly displeased, asked if the media control division was not adding to confusion, sources familiar with the discussions said.

DOSID's insight:

Xi is trying hard to position himself as the 'Fair Reformer".

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China's Online Population Rises by 51 Million in 2012

China's Online Population Rises by 51 Million in 2012 | China Commentary |

China has added 51 million new internet users in the last year, the Associated Press reports citing data from the China Internet Network Information Center.

Compared to 2011, China's internet user population rose 10 percent, bringing the total number to 564 million. That's more than the entire population of Russia and the U.S. combined.


The increase is largely due to a surge in mobile web surfing. The number of Chinese web surfers who access the internet from mobile phones, tablets and other wireless devices, rose 18.1 percent in 2012 to 420 million.


China's huge web usage growth comes despite the government's measures to prevent access to a large number of online services. The world's largest online social networks — Facebook,Google Plus and Twitter — have been completely blocked in China for years.

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Queries over billion-dollar China-Cambodia deal

Queries over billion-dollar China-Cambodia deal | China Commentary |
Mining and transport project worth $11 billion said to be lacking environmental impact assessments


China’s overseas footprint is taking another massive step into south-east Asia.


Two Chinese companies have signed a memorandum of understanding with the Cambodian government to build an US$11.2 billion project in the south-east Asian nation. The project, which includes a seaport, a steel mill and a 400-kilometre cross-country rail line linking the two, is worth nearly 90% of Cambodia’s current gross domestic product.  The new rail line will link a steel mill in Preah Vihear – a northern province believed to have iron ore deposits – to a new seaport to be built on an island off southern Koh Kong province. Construction will begin this year and could take up to four years to complete, Cambodia Iron & Steel Mining Industry Group chairman Zhang Chuan Li told reporters at a Phnom Penh press conference following the December 31 signing.
DOSID's insight:

Chinas Gift?Windfall for Cambodia ! Seaport, Rail link, and a Still mill all worth UD$ 11.2bn- A project worth 905 of Cambodias GDP!

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Tensions easing ?China To Survey Islands Disputed With Japan As Part Of Mapping Exercise

Tensions easing ?China To Survey Islands Disputed With Japan As Part Of Mapping Exercise | China Commentary |
"Some countries infringed and occupied these islands of China."


China is to carry out a geographical survey of islands in the East China Sea at the centre of a bitter dispute with Japan, state media said.


The survey of the Diaoyu islands -- known as Senkakus in Japan, which controls them -- was part of a programme to map China's "territorial islands and reefs", the Xinhua news agency said, citing a state geographical agency.


The maritime dispute, which has simmered off and on for years, intensified last year when the Japanese government nationalised islands in the small chain it did not already own, triggering anger and demonstrations in China.


The protests were allowed to take place by the Communist authorities in Beijing, who use nationalism to bolster their claims to legitimacy, particularly regarding Japan, which occupied parts of China in the 20th century.


The mapping exercise was part of China's efforts to "safeguard its maritime rights and interests", Xinhua said, without saying when it would take place or making clear whether it would involve activities on land, as opposed to sea-based surveying.


DOSID's insight:

Cooling off ?? We are not suprised.

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China tells its army: 'Prepare to fight' -

China tells its army: 'Prepare to fight' - | China Commentary |

China's armed forces have been instructed to raise their fighting ability in 2013, state media reported Tuesday, amid heightened tensions with Japan over disputed islands.

In 2013, "the PLA and the Chinese People's Armed Police Force should focus closely on the objective of being able to fight and win a battle," according to a report in the overseas edition of the People's Daily newspaper, the Communist Party organ.

The directive came in a document released at the beginning of the year by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Staff on military training in 2013, said the report, republished from a website linked to a PLA newspaper.

To prepare for combat, the armed forces must also "vigorously strengthen real-combat-like military training" and intensify efforts to cultivate high-calibre military personnel, the report said.

The report made no mention of the dispute with Tokyo over islands in the East China Sea, which are controlled by Japan as the Senkakus but also claimed by China as the Diaoyus.

A report in state media early last year on military objectives for 2012 did not call on the military to be ready for combat and was more general, focusing on issues including training reform and promoting information technology.


The maritime dispute, which has simmered off and on for years, intensified last year when the Japanese government nationalised islands in the small chain it did not already own, triggering anger and protests in China.

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They Are Getting Ready: “No Obvious Reason” For Why China Is Massively Boosting Stockpiles of Rice, Iron Ore, Precious Metals, Dry Milk

They Are Getting Ready: “No Obvious Reason” For Why China Is Massively Boosting Stockpiles of Rice, Iron Ore, Precious Metals, Dry Milk | China Commentary |

If there were ever a sign that something is amiss, this may very well be it.

United Nations agricultural experts are reporting confusion, after figures show that China imported 2.6 million tons of rice in 2012, substantially more than a four-fold increase over the 575,000 tons imported in 2011.

The confusion stems from the fact that there is no obvious reason for vastly increased imports, since there has been no rice shortage in China. The speculation is that Chinese importers are taking advantage of low international prices, but all that means is that China’s own vast supplies of domestically grown rice are being stockpiled.

Why would China suddenly be stockpiling millions of tons of rice for no apparent reason?

Perhaps it’s related to China’s aggressive military buildup and war preparations in the Pacific and in central Asia.

If a 400% year-over-year increase in rice stockpiles isn’t enough to convince you the Chinese are preparing for a significant near-term event, consider that in Australia the country’s two major baby formula distributors have reported they are unable to keep up with demand for their dry milk formula products.

Grocery stores throughout the country have been left empty of the essential infant staple as a result of bulk exports by the Chinese.

A surge in sales of one of Australia’s most popular brands of infant formula has led to an unusual sight for this wealthy nation: barren shelves in the baby aisle and even rationing of baby food in some leading retail outlets.

We’d be more apt to believe the Chinese were panic-buying baby formula had the Chinese milk scandal occurred recently. The problem is that it happened four years ago. Are we to believe the Chinese are just now realizing their baby food may be tainted?

In addition to the apparent build-up in food stocks, the Chinese are further diversifying their cash assets (denominated in US Dollars) into physical goods.

In fact, in just a single month in 2012, the Chinese imported and stockpiled more gold than the entirety of the gold stored in the vaults of the European Central Bank (and did we mention they did this in one month?).

Their precious metals stockpiles have grown so quickly in recent years that Chinese official holdings remain a complete mystery to Western governments and it’s rumored that the People’s Republic may now be the second largest gold hoarding nation in the world, behind the United States.

We won’t know for sure until the official disclosure which will come when China is ready and not a moment earlier, but at the current run-rate of accumulation which is just shy of 1,000 tons per year, it is certainly within the realm of possibilities that China is now the second largest holder of gold in the world, surpassing Germany’s 3,395 tons and second only to the US.

But the Chinese aren’t just buying precious metals. They’re rapidly acquiring industrial metalsas well.

Spot iron prices are up to an almost 15-month high at $153.90 per tonne. The rally in prices, which started in December 2012, is mainly due to China’s rebuilding of its stockpiles as the Asian giant gears to boost its economy, which in turn, could improve steel demand.

The official explanation, that China is preparing stockpiles in anticipation of an economic recovery, is quite amusing considering that just 8 months ago Reuters reported that China had an oversupply, so much so that their storage facilities had run out of room to store all the inventory!

When metals warehouses in top consumer China are so full that workers start stockpiling iron ore in granaries and copper in car parks, you know the global economy could be in trouble.

At Qingdao Port, home to one of China’s largest iron ore terminals, hundreds of mounds of iron ore, each as tall as a three-storey building, spill over into an area signposted “grains storage” and almost to the street.

Further south, some bonded warehouses in Shanghai are using carparks to store swollen copper stockpiles – another unusual phenomenon that bodes ill for global metal prices and raises questions about China’s ability to sustain its economic growth as the rest of the world falters.

Now, why would China be stockpiling even more iron (and setting 15 month price highs in the process) if they had massive amounts of excess inventory just last year?

Something tells us this has nothing to do with an economic recovery, or even economic theory in terms of popular mainstream analysis.

Why does China need four times as  much rice year-over-year? Why purchase more iron when you already have a huge surplus?

Why buy gold when, as Federal Reserve Chairmen Ben Bernanke suggests, it is not real money? Why build massive cities capable of housing a million or more people, and then keep them empty?

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Infographic: Chinese Attitudes Toward Their Nation, And the World

Infographic: Chinese Attitudes Toward Their Nation, And the World | China Commentary |

This article was produced in collaboration with ChinaFile, a Tea Leaf Nation partner site.

Are Chinese citizens happy with the direction their country is taking? Do they believe in a market economy? Do they believe that hard work brings success?

Each year, the American think tank Pew Research Center asks questions like these to over 300,000 interviewees across 59 countries as part of its “Global Attitudes Project.” This infographic, compiled by Chinese-language news site CNpolitics, highlights some of the major findings from the 3100-plus interviews the Global Attitudes Project conducted this past year in China. Some of the answers may be surprising, particularly given the fact that China is still ruled by a Communist government. Tea Leaf Nation translates, with thanks to partner site ChinaFile’s David M. Barreda for adapting the graphic.

In China, Pew collected 3,177 samples; the results are shown in part below.

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Not a bang, but a whimper - China Shale Gas

Not a bang, but a whimper - China Shale Gas | China Commentary |
The state monopoly will prevent a shale gas revolution in China


China will have overtaken the US as the world’s largest economy by 2030, the US intelligence community projected in its early December report “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.” But the report contained perhaps an even more enviable prediction for North America: By that time, the continent may be entirely energy independent.


The secret to North American self-sufficiency lies in its vast reserves of shale gas. Companies have succeeded in unlocking shale gas through hydraulic fracturing or fracking, a technique in which a slurry of water and chemicals is shot into a horizontal well at awesome pressures. The blast cracks the earth for hundreds of meters, allowing tiny bubbles of gas to escape and float up through the well to the surface.


The resulting natural gas boom has slashed energy costs for US homes and businesses, and it will bring further advantages. The natural gas revolution is reducing American dependence on oil and thus the Middle East. Since shale gas burns cleaner than coal or oil, it is also helping clear the air and mitigate climate change: US emissions are already down to 1992 levels and still falling. 

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China in Africa-Lake Victoria: Ground Zero of Malaria and Fake Drugs

China in Africa-Lake Victoria: Ground Zero of Malaria and Fake Drugs | China Commentary |

The Zimbabwean geologist sitting next to me on a plane across Tanzania from the shores of Lake Victoria to Dar Es Salaam was chatty, asking all sorts of questions about my work in the region and why I was concerned with fake malaria medications made in China. I had just left a clinic in Mwanza where the overworked medical team was trying to save malnourished twin babies. Their mother had died of complications from malaria shortly after they were born and now they weren’t getting enough food. The outlook was poor.


“Have you come to save the world?” he asked with a smile, incorrectly guessing that I was another of the thousands of foreign aid workers who travel through these parts.


He listened intently as I talked about women and children dying from malaria, the fake treatments overwhelming the market, even though there are plenty of reliably safe and effective medications available. Then he asked, with no apparent malice, the question that I suspect so many other people keep to themselves: “So let’s say we save all these women and children. What do we do with them then?”


This is the underlying question, isn’t it? In one of the poorest and most overpopulated parts of the world, basic survival of treatable illness simply is not a given. After more than three weeks of researching the issue on the ground, I came to believe that part of the reason the fake medications crisis in sub-Saharan Africa hasn’t gotten the attention it deserves is because of the nature of the victims. Women and children are particularly vulnerable to the malaria parasite, dying of it in vastly larger numbers than healthy adult men.


The disease kills 800,000 people per year, according to the World Health Organization’s 2010 malaria report. The greatest numbers of victims live in Africa. Children and pregnant women, whose immune systems are not adequately equipped to battle the parasite, are especially susceptible to dying from malaria. They are also, in countries like Uganda, which has the world’s third-highest birth rate, greatly lacking in political power.

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Information Dissemination: China's recent expansion of the maritime agencies

One of the things that I've been really focusing on in the past few months is the recent dramatic expansion of China's civilian maritime force. Much of this is caused by the border disputes with Japan, Vietnam and Phillipines. I think another part of this is the Chinese government supporting its domestic shipbuilding industry during the recent downturn in the global shipbuilding market. Before we start, here is a refresher course on what each of the agencies are about. First, let us focusing on the expansion of CMS (Chinese Maritime Surveillance), which is beneficiary of the majority of the new cutters. From 2008 to 2011, CMS received 11 new large cutters with one of 3000+ ton class (Haijian-84), two of 1500+ ton class (84, 15) and 4 of 1000+ ton class (75、23、66、26). After that, we received the news 36 new cutters of 600 to 1500 ton for provincial CMS. Table below shows which provinces are getting them and where the cutters are built at and for how much.

Via Paulo Félix
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Pathbreaking analysis: The 18th National Congress Report Card

Pathbreaking analysis: The 18th National Congress Report Card | China Commentary |
What can we expect when China's top Party leaders meet in Beijing next month? Here's a quick report card.




As I hope I’ve illustrated through this series, China’s political watchwords can reward us with a wealth of information. These specialized vocabularies, and their shifts over time, provide a glimpse into China’s secretive political culture.

Analyzing China’s political watchwords would have been a painstaking process before the advent of computers and the Internet. Just imagine the time and immense effort it would require to sort through six decades of the People’s Daily for a phrase like “intraparty democracy.”


Fortunately, a new generation of digital search tools makes searching political watchwords in Chinese far easier. We now have, at our fingertips, the means to search through individual articles, through entire archives of a single newspaper, or even through hundreds of newspapers and websites over specified time periods.


With the help of these new search tools, watchwords become keys, allowing us to unlock China’s political past and present, and to make educated guesses about its future. Our basic measure is a given term’s frequency of use, which gives us a reading of that term’s temperature over time. Or, if you prefer, it shows us a term’s changing stock price. Is a watchword (and related ideas, policies or people) on the rise or in decline?


In this series, I’ve looked at the history, origin and context of various political watchwords used by the Chinese Communist Party. I’ve also looked at changes in the frequency of use and meaning of these terms over time.


Political change in China over the past 60 years has been attended by change in the meaning and frequency of political watchwords. Some terms, like “class struggle,” have faded into the past. Others, like “political reform,” have run hot and cold.


The following is a bulleted list of basic points that I hope will help readers make sense of the upcoming 18th National Congress. If you like, you can think of these 10 key points as a basis on which we can come up with a report card telling us which direction the leadership seems likely to go on a number of important issues.


1. The Four Basic Principles (including Mao Zedong Thought).
These watchwords have strong significance as indicators of where Chinese politics is heading. If both of these terms are abandoned, this will signify the leadership’s intention to pursue political reform. If the phrase Four Basic Principles is used to the extent that we saw five years earlier, or its frequency is reduced only slightly, this will signal a perpetuation of the status quo, with no substantive progress on political reform. Any increase in the frequency of use of either term will suggest a political turnabout.


2. Stability Preservation.
If this hard-line term appears in the political report to the 18th National Congress (marking its coming of age as a Party watchword), this will be a serious sign of political backsliding. (Note that an increase for Term 1, the Four Basic Principles, accompanied by Term 2, “stability preservation,” would be a serious sign of political backsliding. If this happens, no situation with respect to the other watchwords below would override this more pessimistic reading.)


3. Cultural Revolution.
A return appearance of this term in 2012 could have special meaning. If the political report to the 18th National Congress attempts any sort of soul-searching about the Cultural Revolution, this could be read as positive sign pointing to possible political reform. If, however, the term is used only in the context of praise for China’s progress, its appearance will have little significance.


4. Political Reform.
Possible positive developments for this watchword at the 18th National Congress would be inclusion in a section header of the political report (which didn’t happen in 2007), or an overall increase in use of the term (which was mentioned five times in 2007). Any decrease in use would be a negative sign. We should also note whether the report includes Wen Jiabao-style language. For example, the appearance of the phrase “protecting rights, checking power” would be a positive sign. The appearance, on the other hand, of hard-line language such as “opposing Westernization” or the “Five Will Nots” would be a negative sign.


5. Power of Decision-Making, Power of Administration and Power of Monitoring.
For this phrase, which did appear in the political report to the 17th National Congress, the critical thing to look for is whether it reappears this year. The full 2007 phrase to look for is: “[The Party] must build and improve power structures for mutual conditioning and mutual coordination of the powers of decision-making, administration and monitoring, improving oversight mechanisms” (要建立健全决策权、执行权、监督权既相互制约又相互协调的权力结构,完善监督机制). If we do not see this phrase repeated in this year’s political report, that will be a negative sign. If the phrase is altered to include the idea of these powers operating independently of one another, that will be a positive sign.


6. Power Is Given by the People.
As I explained in my fifth article in this series, this phrase was introduced by Xi Jinping after the 17th National Congress. Any appearance of this term at all in this year’s political report will be a positive sign.


7. Social Construction.
The critical thing to watch here is whether the phrase “expanding the scope for self-governance at the grassroots,” which appeared in 2007, reappears in this year’s political report. If it disappears (and is not replaced by “social self-governance”) that will be a negative sign.


8. Intraparty Democracy.
This term appeared five times in the political report to the 17th National Congress, a relatively high frequency. In this year’s political report we will need to look both at how often the watchword appears, and at whether or not it is accompanied by language about more concrete measures, such as “open nomination and direct election,” “differential election” and “fixed tenure.”


9. Scientific View of Development.
The term, President Hu Jintao’s “banner term,” or qihao, appeared 21 times in the 2007 political report. If the term appears the same number of times or marginally less often in this year’s report, that will be normal. If, however, the term appears with greater frequency, this will signal that Hu intends to extend the influence of his banner term beyond the 18th National Congress. Also worth scrutiny is whether the meaning of the Scientific View of Development is changed in any way. For example, if there is an emphasis on “people-based” governance, or if there is mention of civil and political rights along the lines of what we saw in China’s National Human Rights Action Plan (2012-2015), then this will be a positive sign.

10. Socialism with Chinese Characteristics.

This watchword appeared a whopping 51 times in the political report to the 17th National Congress. Judging from Hu Jintao’s speech on July 23, 2012, this watchword, actually a changing medley of political terms, will become a term representing the banner terms for the last three generations of Chinese leaders — Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. If that’s true, we can expect the term to be used with even greater frequency. That would be the product of political balancing and would not necessarily signify positive or negative political developments.


Observers should carefully monitor how Socialism with Chinese Characteristics is defined in the political report. Specifically, we should look at whether that definition includes the Four Basic Principles or “one core, two basics” (which includes the Four Basic Principles). If either of these terms is bundled into the definition of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics, that will occasion pessimism about the path ahead.


It remains to be seen which particular watchwords will be most useful in reading China’s political situation and prospects at the 18th National Congress. But I hope I’ve made the case that China’s political watchwords are more than just words — they are concrete outcomes of China’s internal politics. Of course, the study of the ups and downs of China’s specialized political vocabulary should always be combined with a keen eye for other political variables. After all, as this year’s Bo Xilai scandal has shown, China is always ready to surprise.

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The Challenge Posed by China’s Military Posture in Tibet

The Challenge Posed by China’s Military Posture in Tibet | China Commentary |

Brig. Vijai K Nair (Retd). Dr. Nair an M Sc. in Defence Studies and a Ph. D. in Political Science. He specializes in Nuclear Strategy formulation and nuclear arms control negotiations.


A         Development of Surface Communications in Tibet 
B         Chinese Nuclear Capabilities Deployed In Central China                         
C         Chinese Nuclear Weapons By Type & Location.
D         Chinese Assistance To Pakistan: Nuclear Field
E          Map of  Area for Diverting Water from Tsangpo 

China is in forceful occupation of approximately 38,000 square Kms of Indian territory in Akshai Chin in the West and claims a further 90,000 square Kms of Indian territories in the East, a claim that was reiterated with vehemence by Beijing as recently as June 1998. This territorial dispute resulted in the deployment of military forces, by both India and China, in direct confrontation along 3488 km of what is called the Line of Actual Control [LAC][i] in place of a mutually recognised international border between them. To add fuel to fire the alignment of the LAC is also disputed thereby causing considerable tensions between the two countries.

Despite having signed an Agreement on Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the Line of Actual Control [LAC] in 1993 Chinese incursions across the LAC continue to be a regular feature and have continued to date.[ii] If anything the frequency of these intrusions registered an upswing after the demise of Deng Xiaoping in February 1997 with exponential increments thereafter when India conducted nuclear tests in May 1998. “Chinese troops have crossed over into Indian territory over 500 times since January, 2010. But much more than the sheer number of these "transgressions" - the government refuses to call them "intrusions" - it's the increasingly aggressive behaviour of the 2.5-million-strong People's Liberation Army [PLA] along the LAC that remains a major worry.”[iii] The propensity of the Indian Government to sweep this aberration under the carpet cannot reduce the threat manifest in the fact that the PLA has:

DOSID's insight:

Very pertinent content and ground breaking analysis by Brigadier Vijai K Nair [rtd]


Brig. Vijai K Nair (Retd). Dr. Nair an M Sc. in Defence Studies and a Ph. D. in Political Science. He specializes in Nuclear Strategy formulation and nuclear arms control negotiations. He has considerable experience on issues related to NPT, CTBT and FMCT.  Dr. Nair is currently revising the nuclear strategy for India [in keeping with nuclear transience] suggested in his book “Nuclear India.” Besides two tenures of combat duty, in service experience includes being a Member Army Experts Committee - 1989-90; Core staff officer to the Committee on Defence Expenditure 1990.
He is the Life Trustee of the Forum for Strategic & Security Studies; and, Managing Director, Magoo Strategic Infotech Pvt Ltd.  An information service providing daily news updates and analyses on “Nuclear Agenda’s”.   
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Shinzo Abe’s Strategic Diamond

Shinzo Abe’s Strategic Diamond | China Commentary |

Will the return of Shinzo Abe as Japan's prime minister mark the attempted revival of his controversial and short-lived 2007 initiative, the quadrilateral dialogue? A reading of his recent article on a "strategic diamond" of Indo-Pacific Asia's maritime democracies – Japan, the United States, Australia and India – certainly leaves that impression.


Just a few weeks into the job, Abe is already being criticized for heightening mistrust between Japan and China. His stance on the issue of so-called comfort women from the time of Japan's World War II occupation of Korea is cause for concern. And any more general attitude of downplaying Japanese contrition over that brutal period of history hardly seems in Japan's interests in terms of winning friends in Asia or beyond.


Yet it would be inaccurate and unfair to dismiss the entirety of the new Abe government’s foreign and security policy platform as needless or provocative nationalism. It is both prudent and understandable, for instance, that Japan appears set on a modest expansion of its maritime defense capabilities, given several years of tensions with China and worsening anxieties about North Korea.


And a more normalized Japanese defense posture – including a military that can operate confidently with partners beyond Japan's immediate neighborhood – could contribute to the maintenance of security and order in the Indo-Pacific regional commons, where Japan has a legitimate interest as a major seafaring and trading nation.

DOSID's insight:

The "Quadrilateral Dialogue" or the "Strategic Diamond" and the encirclement of China.


"In the summer of 2007, addressing the Central Hall of the Indian Parliament as Japan’s prime minister, I spoke of the “Confluence of the Two Seas” – a phrase that I drew from the title of a book written by the Mughal prince Dara Shikoh in 1655 – to the applause and stomping approval of the assembled lawmakers. In the five years since then, I have become even more strongly convinced that what I said was correct." Read more about the Strategic Diamond here:


Also read the excellent piece by reuters " Japan's Abe turns to Southeast Asia to counter China"

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Global Online Espionage Operation-Operation Rocra- "Red October.China or Russia responsible?

Global Online Espionage Operation-Operation Rocra- "Red October.China or Russia responsible? | China Commentary |
Cybersecurity company Kaspersky uncovers 5-year-old global cyber espionage operation codenamed Red October.


Russia or China could be behind one of the largest and most complex cyber espionage campaigns ever revealed, according to cybersecurity experts contacted by Mashable. The operation, codenamed Red October, was uncovered yesterday by the Russian online security giant Kaspersky Lab.


Unfortunately the evidence can't clearly show who is behind the attacks. All the experts, including the Kaspersky researchers, warn that caution is due. "If you don't see clear evidence," said Markus Jakobsson, cybersecurity expert and CTO of FatSkunk, a Silicon Valley anti-mobile malware company, "what you can do is base it on a hunch and look at who's targeted."


The malware targeted mostly government networks, diplomatic or research institutions, and critical infrastructures located in countries across all continents. Claudio Guarnieri, a security researcher at Rapid7, an information security company, said that because of the nature of the targets, the operation is "definitely politically motivated." That opinion is shared by the researchers at Kaspersky, who wrote in the report that "the main purpose of the operation appears to be the gathering of classified information and geopolitical intelligence, although it seems that the information-gathering scope is quite wide."

DOSID's insight:

From Securelist:


Who is behind/responsible for this operation? Is this a nation-state sponsored attack?

The information we have collected so far does not appear to point towards any specific location, however, two important factors stand out:

The exploits appear to have been created by Chinese hackers.The Rocra malware modules have been created by Russian-speaking operatives.

Currently, there is no evidence linking this with a nation-state sponsored attack. The information stolen by the attackers is obviously of the highest level and includes geopolitical data which can be used by nation states. Such information could be traded in the underground and sold to the highest bidder, which can be of course, anywhere.


More from Securelist:

DOSID's comment, January 16, 2013 12:09 AM
Unraveling News. Current at time of scooping.
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China Shipbuilders Chart New Course: Offshore Energy Vessels

China Shipbuilders Chart New Course: Offshore Energy Vessels | China Commentary |

Amid a serious drought in orders for their mainstay cargo ships, leading Chinese shipbuilders are under growing pressure to win more contracts for vessels used in offshore oil and gas exploration.

Relative newcomers, the Chinese face formidable competition from South Korean and Singaporean shipbuilders that are more experienced in building specialized ships. But with strong government backing and a willingness to offer low- or no-margin deals, China could one day hold a strong position in offshore energy vessels in much the same way it won a significant chunk of the market for conventional ships.


“China needs to diversify its shipbuilding product mix away from its dependence on dry bulk vessels,” Barclays analyst Jon Windham wrote in a recent research note. “In our view, 2013 is the year in which Chinese policymakers will be forced to address the collapsing backlog in the industry.”


Mr. Windham said the central government can support the transition to offshore by urging China’s policy banks—lenders such as China Development Bank that make funds available to help Beijing advance its policy goals—to offer generous loan terms including low down payments to potential buyers.

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China should strengthen force on Indian border, researcher says

China should strengthen force on Indian border, researcher says | China Commentary |

A Chinese expert has advised the government to increase supervision on its border with India after New Delhi's decision to form a new mountain strike corps for the 3,380km-long border that the two countries share in total. 

Reacting to a news report in The Times of India, Fu Xiaoqiang, researcher from the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said, "China should strengthen its supervision and control over the border area with India." 

The formation of a new corps shows India sees China as its military competitor, Fu was quoted by Beijing-based newspaper the Global Times. 

The TOI report said that the new corps, having around 40,000 soldiers, will be formed during India's 12th Five-Year Plan from 2012 to 2017, at an estimated cost of 810 billion rupees ($14.9 billion). The idea is to build the capability of launching counter-offensives into the TibetAutonomous Region against potential "Chinese attacks." 

However, Fu felt the Indian proposal has little relation to a military exercise carried out by the Chinese air force over the Tibet Autonomous Region in December. It is part of India's overall plan to strengthen its military power along its border with China, he said..

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Obama’s Nuclear Arms Agenda and its Implications for China | CHINA US Focus

Obama’s Nuclear Arms Agenda and its Implications for China | CHINA US Focus | China Commentary |

The US should take China’s security concerns into full consideration now since strategic suspicion has grown because of US rebalancing strategy.


By Gu Guoliang, Director at the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation Studies at CASS

As President Obama enters his second term, there have been discussions and policy recommendations in the United States on the Obama administration’s next nuclear arms control agenda. We expect to see some new moves in his second term.

During his first term, President Obama focused on three major nuclear issues, including conclusion of a new START treaty with Russia in April 2010, successfully convening the 2010 NPT Review Conference and holding the 2010 Washington Nuclear Security Summit. In his second term, he will continue to put the above three issues on his agenda. Aside from successfully holding the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit and 2015 NPT Review Conference, pushing forward the nuclear disarmament process will be the major focus in his nuclear arms control policy.


President Obama won his 2009 Nobel Peace Prize because of his speech in Prague on April 5, 2009, calling for a world without nuclear weapons. President Obama certainly wishes to safeguard this diplomatic legacy in his second term and achieve further progress in nuclear disarmament. He has been advised to take the following concrete steps in nuclear disarmament in his second term. [1]


(1)  Negotiating a new START II treaty with Russia, with the goal of further reducing their nuclear weapons from 1550 to the level of 1000.


(2)  Starting the multilateral nuclear disarmament process, with a view to bringing China into the nuclear disarmament process


(3)  Enhancing the BMD program, including a cooperative NATO-Russian arrangement and increased deployment of BMD system in Asia-Pacific.


(4)  Pushing for the ratification of CTBT and the starting of FMCT negotiation

These steps will have major implications for China’s arms control policy and China-US relations.


Over the past years, China and the United States have had good cooperation over major differences in the field of nuclear arms control.

DOSID's insight:

Totally pacifist in tone and tenor. For Both Obama and The Chinese Government. Why would President Obama ," take China’s security concerns into full consideration" or vice versa.

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Chinese government to publish new map including Senkaku Islands

Chinese government to publish new map including Senkaku Islands | China Commentary |

China‘s state-run Xinhua news agency revealed on Sunday that a new map of the country was to be published that included not only the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands among its territory, but also other areas in the East and South China Seas. The government’s National Administration of Surveying, Mapping, and Geoinformation is said to publish the new map by the end of this month, including around 130 areas currently under dispute.

While notably among the areas highlighted as Chinese on the new map are the Senkaku Islands, currently under Japanese control and at the center of the ongoing diplomatic tensions, there will also be territories in the South China Sea claimed by Vietnam and the Philippines. These include the Spratly Islands, the Paracel Islands, the Pratas Islands, the Macclesfield Bank, and the Scarborough Shoal. This is in line with China’s new passports that started being issued last year which also feature a map with numerous contested areas labeled as Chinese.

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Chinese loans could fuel regional conflict in East Africa

Chinese loans could fuel regional conflict in East Africa | China Commentary |
Dam and irrigation projects could spark “bloody and persistent” conflict, suggests Peter Bosshard of International Rivers.


China has made great efforts to support poverty reduction in Africa, and likes to present itself as a friend of the African people. But loans for contentious dam and irrigation projects now threaten to pull China into an explosive regional conflict between well-armed groups in Kenya, Ethiopia and South Sudan.

The Lower Omo Valley in south-west Ethiopia and Lake Turkana in Northern Kenya are marked by a harsh climate and unique, fragile ecosystems. They are home to 12 indigenous peoples, one of the largest remaining wildlife migrations, and some of the earliest remains of the human species.

The region is currently being transformed by one of Africa’s biggest and most controversial infrastructure ventures. Once completed, the Gibe III hydropower project will dam the Omo River to generate electricity with a capacity of 1,870 megawatts. It will also allow the irrigation of 2,450 square kilometres of sugar plantations, which are currently being developed on indigenous lands and in national parks.

DOSID's insight:

The Gibe III hydropower project:

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China's space activities raising U.S. satellite security concerns

China's space activities raising U.S. satellite security concerns | China Commentary |

The United States is concerned about China's expanding ability to disrupt the most sensitive U.S. military and intelligence satellites, as Beijing pursues its expanded ambitions in space, according to multiple sources in the U.S. government and outside space experts.


A classified U.S. intelligence assessment completed late last year analyzed China's increasing activities in space and mapped out the growing vulnerability of U.S. satellites that provide secure military communications, warn about enemy missile launches and provide precise targeting coordinates, said the sources, who were not authorized to speak publicly.


"It was a very credible and sobering assessment that is now provoking a lot of activities in different quarters," said one former government official who is familiar with U.S. national security satellite programs.


The intelligence report raised red flags about Beijing's ability to disrupt satellites in higher orbits, which could put the most sensitive U.S. spacecraft at risk, according to the sources. China has already conducted several anti-satellite tests at lower orbital levels in recent years.


Given the heightened concerns, Washington is keeping a watchful eye on Chinese activities that could be used to disrupt U.S. satellites. It is also urging Beijing to avoid a repeat of its January 2007 test that created an enormous amount of "space junk," said one senior defense official.


Details of the latest Chinese moves that have raised U.S. concerns remain classified.

U.S. officials charge that China's anti-satellite activities are part of a major military modernization that has seen Beijing test two new stealth fighters; step up cyber attacks on foreign computer networks; and launch more commercial and military satellites in 2012 than the United States.

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Limited Liftoff Looming: Y-20 Transport Prepares for 1st Test Flight

Limited Liftoff Looming: Y-20 Transport Prepares for 1st Test Flight | China Commentary |

While China's stealth aircraft prototypes may get all the buzz, the Y-20 offers new military operational possibilities.

In 2011 and 2012, China flight-tested stealth fighter prototypes developed by Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (J-20) and Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (J-31). In 2013, Xi’an Aircraft Corporation (XAC) will look to get into the new aircraft game by flight-testing a prototype of the Y-20, an indigenously-developed large transport aircraft similar in size to the Russian IL-76 and somewhat smaller than the U.S. C-17. The Y-20 program is part of an effort to develop an indigenous long-range jet-powered heavy transport aircraft, a top priority in China’s “Medium- and Long-Term National Science and Technology Development Program (2006–20)” (MLP).


Now satellite images have revealed the Y-20’s presence at Yanliang airfield, near Xi’an, which hosts the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF)’s China Flight Test Establishment (CFTE). There it reportedly began low-speed taxi testing on  December 21, 2012. On  January 3, 2013, Aviation Industry of China (AVIC) Chairman and Party Secretary Lin Zuoming visited Yanliang to observe the situation there and offer his gratitude for contributions made and successes achieved by the numerous CFTE and XAC personnel who have been toiling to prepare testing and test flights. While it is only natural for an aviation executive to engage in such activities at a flight test center, the Y-20’s presence there nevertheless suggests that its test flight is one of the ones being readied. What will a Y-20 test flight suggest about China’s aviation development and military capabilities?



DOSID's insight:

An excellent and detailed analysis of Military Jet Engine Development in China by the China Sign Post is a must read. We quote:


"For the past two years, we’ve worked hard to bring readers cutting edge analysis of China’s military jet engine development."


China Military Jet Engine Development Overview: An eReader



By China Sign Post

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