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Scooped by Deb Nystrom, REVELN
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Nassim Taleb's 'Antifragile' Celebrates Randomness In People, Markets - Forbes

Nassim Taleb's 'Antifragile' Celebrates Randomness In People, Markets - Forbes | Change Management Resources | Scoop.it

'Antifragile' is a celebration of risk and randomness and a call to arms to recognize and embrace antifragility.

Many readers misunderstand Taleb’s core message.  They assume that because Taleb writes about unseen and improperly calculated risks, his objective must be to reduce or eliminate risk.  Nothing could be further from the truth. 


Antifragile is a celebration of risk and randomness and a call to arms to recognize and embrace antifragility. 


Rather than reduce risk, organize your life, your business or your society in such a way that it benefits from randomness and the occasional Black Swan event.


Taleb’s own life is a case in point.  He had the free time to write Fooled, The Black Swan and Antifragile because—in his own words—he made “F___ you money” during the greatest Black Swan event of our lifetimes, the 1987 stock market crash.  


...Taleb’s trading style is antifragile, had the 1987 crash never happened, Taleb would not have been materially hurt.  His trading style puts little at risk but allows for outsized returns.



Other antifragile Scoops:

    

         
         

    Deb's related posts:

         

        
    Deb Nystrom, REVELN's insight:

    Taleb's coinage of "Antifragile" is compelling.  Change practitioners might find this a useful concept to understanding how to survive and thrive in a VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) world.  ~  Deb

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    Deb Nystrom, REVELN's comment, April 17, 2013 2:57 PM
    Anne, your layering encourages critical nuanced views beyond the book's "shiny new term" idea. Sometimes the first thing to do is "not do," as in, don't just do something, stand there. Doe we need an "intervention?" What are the other perspectives available, thinking systemically? Re: Iatrogenics: From the "Black Swan Report: "...the argument of Chapters 21 and 22 on the convexity of iatrogenics (only treat the VERY ill): Mortality is convex to blood pressure."
    Anne Caspari's comment, April 22, 2013 9:42 AM
    Hi Deb, thanks :-). I also reckon there are MANY fresh perspectives on how to handle different systems (or leave them alone), may they be health, financial, socio-political, ecological.... I love it and keep smiling to myself when I see the aha - moments on applied convexity/anti/fragility pop up in daily life, business and otherwise... compliments also on your scoops...
    Deb Nystrom, REVELN's comment, April 22, 2013 10:16 PM
    Thanks Anne. Systems and org. groupies a bit, maybe. ;-)
    Rescooped by Deb Nystrom, REVELN from A New Society, a new education!
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    Application of Complexity Theory: Away from Reductionist Phase Transitions

    Application of Complexity Theory: Away from Reductionist Phase Transitions | Change Management Resources | Scoop.it

    Reductionism [is useful] in understanding and managing the world around us.     However the possibility space is now expanding to higher levels of resolution such as a focus on complex systems. Learning and tools are ratcheting in lock-step.


    Via juandoming
    Deb Nystrom, REVELN's insight:

    Here's a handy list for referencing complexity theory in a practical way.  Many change projects reference concepts mentioned here including non-linear dynamics, networks, chaos, fractals, and power laws.  ~ Deb

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    Understanding simple, complicated, complex, and chaos in Systems Thinking

    " If you manage a complex organization as if it were just a complicated one, you’ll make serious, expensive mistakes.”


    Most of the approaches used to address complex system are approaches for complicated system ( Six Sigma, Balance Scorecard, …).


    But how to work in a complex system ?  


    According to Gökçe Sargut and Rita Gunther McGrath , they recommend to:
        
    · Improve the way you forecast by using tools/models that simulate the behavior of the system. Process Behaviour Chart (see Shewart)
    · Improve the way you mitigate risk by minimizing the need to rely on predictions/expectations to experiment, by…
    · Make different resource tradeoffs by providing diversity of thoughts and by investing in incremental and small investment in new project/approaches.



    They describe some of the essential parts of " a system of profound knowledge" :
    • appreciation for a system, 
    • knowledge about variation, 
    • theory of knowledge, and 
    • psychology. 
         
    The system of profound knowledge is a complex system as we've to consider it a a network of interdependent components that work together to accomplish the purpose of the system.
       
    The  4 interrelated parts can't be understood if separated from one another.
         
    As Deming said : "Rational prediction requires theory and builds knowledge through systematic revision and extension of the theory based on comparison of prediction with observation."(Deming, The New Economics). 
         
    The system of profound knowledge is based on the premise that management is prediction.  
        
    If we fail to predict what we expect  ("Theory), we fail to predict the results of our experiment to improve, we fail to analyze the results of our experiment and we fail to learn about our system.
         
    So we don't improve. 
    Deb Nystrom, REVELN's insight:

    As many large change projects ARE in complex systems, dealing with forecasts (alternate scenarios included), and risk and resource allocation changes IS key to agile  & appropriate change plans.  ~  D

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    Change Useful: The Cynefin Framework helps with Complexity, Complex, Chaos and Simplicity

    The Cynefin (play /ˈkʌnɨvɪn/) framework is used to describe problems, situations and systems. It provides a typology of contexts that guides what sort of explanations and/or solutions may apply. Cynefin is a Welsh word, which is commonly translated into English as 'habitat' or 'place', although this fails to convey its full meaning. A more complete translation of the word would be that it conveys the sense that we all have multiple pasts of which we can only be partly aware: cultural, religious, geographic, tribal etc. The term was chosen by the Welsh scholar Dave Snowden to illustrate the evolutionary nature of complex systems, including their inherent uncertainty. The name is a reminder that all human interactions are strongly influenced and frequently determined by our experiences, both through the direct influence of personal experience, and through collective experience, such as stories or music.

    The Cynefin framework draws on research into complex adaptive systems theory, cognitive science, anthropology and narrative patterns, as well as evolutionary psychology. It "explores the relationship between man, experience and context"[1] and proposes new approaches to communication, decision-making, policy-making and knowledge management in complex social environments.

    The Cynefin framework was originally developed in 1999 in the context of knowledge management and organisational strategy by Dave Snowden[2] It was originally a modification of Max Boisot's I-Space[3] combined with the study of actual, as opposed to stated management practice in IBM. By 2002 it had developed to include complex adaptive systems theory and had started to become a general strategy model.[4] It was then further developed and elaborated with Cynthia Kurtz as a part of their work with the IBM Institute of Knowledge Management (IKM).[5] Kurtz had worked with Snowden as a part of an IBM special interest group on narrative from 1999 before joining the IKM in 2001)[6] Kurtz and others continued this work in Cognitive Edge formed by Snowden when he left IBM in 2005. This period included work to extend the model to Leadership with Mary E Boone which culminated in the HBR article referenced below.

    Deb Nystrom, REVELN's insight:

    Quotable, "There's nothing so practical as a good theory, " and this one in particular helps with the complexity of change.  ~  D

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