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Scooped by Deb Nystrom, REVELN
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Why Data Will Never Replace Thinking, DPPE, What's the Question? What's the Goal?

Why Data Will Never Replace Thinking, DPPE, What's the Question?  What's the Goal? | Change Management Resources | Scoop.it
The answers we get out of data will always depend on the questions we ask.


Useful.  It also reminded me of one of the tools we use in Whole Scale change thinking:  Data, Purpose, Plan, Evaluate, or DPPE.  Thanks to twitter follower  @resilientchange for this link this week.


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"Throughout history ....science has made huge progress in precisely the areas where we can measure things — and lagged where we can't."

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Excerpts:


Data-driven predictions can succeed — and they can fail. It is when we deny our role in the process that the odds of failure rise. Before we demand more of our data, we need to demand more of ourselves.


One key role we play in the process is choosing which data to look at. That this choice is often made for us by what happens to be easiest to measure doesn't make it any less consequential, as Samuel Arbesman writes, 


  • "Throughout history, in one field after another, science has made huge progress in precisely the areas where we can measure things — and lagged where we can't."


In his book,  political forecaster Nate Silver writes about a crucial element, how we go about revising our views as new data comes in.


Silver is a big believer in the Bayesian approach to probability, in which we all have our own subjective ideas about how things are going to pan out, but follow the same straightforward rules in revising those assessments as we get new information.


It's a process that uses data to refine our thinking. But it doesn't work without some thinking first.


Read the full article here.


Perspective on change planning, facilitating, organizing, implementing or sustaining via Reveln.


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Scooped by Deb Nystrom, REVELN
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10 Favorite Systems Thinking Books of the Past 10+ Years > Change that Works

10 Favorite Systems Thinking Books of the Past 10+ Years >  Change that Works | Change Management Resources | Scoop.it

"Here's a helpful list of systems thinking books from the editor of The Systems Thinker news on Pegasus, a favorite blog spot I follow.  Systems and change are married to each other in creating change that works.


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Reality will not be still. And it cannot be taken apart! ....Relationship is everything." ~ Marilyn Ferguson

    

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I have several of these and will probably be getting the e-editions of others from this great list.


"General Systems Theory, a related modern concept

[to holism],says that each variable in any system

interacts with the other variables

so thoroughly that cause and effect

cannot be separated.


A simple variable can be both cause and effect.

Reality will not be still. And it cannot be taken apart!

You cannot understand a cell, a rat, a brain structure,

a family, a culture if you isolate it from its context.

Relationship is everything."    

- Marilyn Ferguson,  

The Aquarian Conspiracy



A sample from her blog post:


She admits Russell Ackoff writings and Senge's new edition of The Fifth Discipline go without saying as great systems thinking classics.  That said, her list includes:


  • Thinking in Systems: A Primer by Donella H. Meadows (Chelsea Green, 2008) Dana Meadows had a unique ability to take the mystery out of what can be perceived as overly complex concepts.
  
  • DN:  I have this one and carry it around on my iPad everywhere, reminding myself when I get stuck how systems can be complex without being complicated.
   
   
  • Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World by John Sterman (McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2000) The core textbook for learning how to apply system dynamics modeling to complex organizational challenges. Even if you aren’t interested in modeling per se, Sterman’s clear, well-written explanations of the core elements of systems thinking make it worth a look.
   
  • Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update by Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis L. Meadows (Chelsea Green, 2004) The most recent version of the influential system dynamics analysis of the impact of a rapidly growing population in a world of finite resources.


She's also listed several good books for children including two books by a relative of a former neighbor of mind.  Good stuff!



Read the full post here.

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