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Scooped by Deb Nystrom, REVELN
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Trends and Predictions by Futurist Thomas Frey » 2 Billion Jobs to Disappear by 2030

Trends and Predictions by Futurist Thomas Frey » 2 Billion Jobs to Disappear by 2030 | Change Leadership Watch | Scoop.it

2 billion jobs disappearing (approx. 50% of the world's jobs) it was intended as a wakeup call about how quickly things are about to change.  Academia ~ the battle ahead will be taking place at YOUR doorstep.


A search for comments on The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era, a non-fiction book by American economist Jeremy Rifkin reminded me of Bob Johansen, Futurist and also led me to another Futurist, Thomas Frey.


Here are excerpts from Frey's TEDx talk:


The article includes a brief overview of five (5) industries – where the jobs will be going away and the jobs that will likely replace at least some of them – over the coming decades.


1) Power Industry


Jobs Going Away

  • Power generation plants will begin to close down.
  • Coal plants will begin to close down.
  • Many railroad and transportation workers will no longer be needed.
  • Even wind farms, natural gas, and bio-fuel generators will begin to close down.
  • Ethanol plants will be phased out or repurposed.
  • Utility company engineers, gone.
  • Line repairmen, gone.


New Jobs Created

  • Manufacturing power generation units the size of ac units will go into full production.
  • Installation crews will begin to work around the clock.
  • The entire national grid will need to be taken down (a 20 year project). Much of it will be recycled and the recycling process alone will employ many thousands of people.
  • Micro-grid operations will open in every community requiring a new breed of engineers, managers, and regulators.
   

2) Automobile Transportation – Going Driverless

  

Over the next 10 years we will see the first wave of autonomous vehicles hit the roads, with some of the first inroads made by vehicles that deliver packages, groceries, and fast-mail envelopes.

    

3) Education

  • ...courses are becoming a commodity. Teachers only need to teach once, record it, and then move on to another topic or something else.
  • ...we are transitioning from a teaching model to a learning model. Why do we need to wait for a teacher to take the stage in the front of the room when we can learn whatever is of interest to us at any moment?

   

Teaching requires experts. Learning only requires coaches.

   

Jobs Going Away

  • Teachers.
  • Trainers.
  • Professors.

  

New Jobs Created

  • Coaches.
  • Course designers.
  • Learning camps
   
4) 3D Printers

Three-dimensional printing makes it as cheap to create single items as it is to produce thousands of items and thus undermines economies of scale. It may have as profound an impact on the world as the coming of the factory did during the Henry Ford era.

   
5) Bots

We are moving quickly past the robotic vacuum cleaner stage to far more complex machines.

   
Read more, Thomas Frey - Futurist Speaker (http://s.tt/1imN0)


Read about Deb's perspective on change planning, facilitating, organizing, implementing or sustaining especially when dealing with demanding deadlines and short staffing via a recent blog posts here (key word search-able.)



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Victoria Morgia Jamolod-Umbo's comment, October 7, 2012 12:19 AM
The worst is yet to come. Hopefully,we will still survive with this prediction. Indeed, the inventions of human beings are not totally beneficial to human beings. It is amazing, but sad to consider....
Deb Nystrom, REVELN's comment, October 7, 2012 9:36 PM
@Victoria, we will adapt, but we will not ALL adapt. Hopefully education in some areas will catch up sooner, rather than later, to help us make the changes we need, learning the skills at the right time.
Rescooped by Deb Nystrom, REVELN from Innovation & Institutions, Will it Blend?
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Leading in a VUCA change world - Are you ready for the volatile, uncertain, complex & ambiguous?

Leading in a VUCA change world - Are you ready for the volatile, uncertain, complex & ambiguous? | Change Leadership Watch | Scoop.it

"How’s your leadership working on in your VUCA world (Volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous)? "


Liz Guthridge has written a great post on leading in a VUCA world; VCUA stands for volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous, a term coined by the US Army War College in the weeks before September 11, 2001.  


Liz & I discussed the need for collaboration and community across disciplines to succeed in a VUCA world in connection with our recent panel + Open Space presentation we did for a global change conference on Success Secrets of Trusted Change Advisors.


__________________________


VUCA can provide threats [and] offer opportunities, especially if you translate VUCA as “vision, understanding, clarity and agility.” ~ Dr. Bob Johansen

__________________________


Here are some excerpts of her take on the insightful presentation by one of our keynote presenters:


"Leading in a VUCA world" is a popular phrase with Bob Johansen, a distinguished fellow and former president of Institute for the Future.


According to Dr. Johansen, who shared his 2020 forecast at the Association of Change Management Professionals global conference this week, our VUCA world is not going away. In fact it’s just going to spin faster during the next decade.


In his talk “External Future Forces That Will Disrupt the Practice of Change Management,” Dr. Johansen noted that VUCA is not necessarily doom and gloom. While VUCA can provide threats, it also can offer opportunities, especially if you translate VUCA as “vision, understanding, clarity and agility.”


As for his two big 2022 predictions for organizational change agents, they are:


1. “The digital natives (now 16 years or younger) will create new practices to make change through gaming.” (The other key phrase besides gaming in this sentence is “make.” Dr. Johansen predicts that a culture of makers will drive the next generation of change. And as a result, leaders need to show the “maker instinct” trait.)


2. “Reciprocity-based innovation will focus on the economic, social and psychological value of reciprocity.” (Two important traits for leaders are smart-mob organizing and commons creating. Think Creative Commons.)


Dr. Johansen challenged the 825 of us in attendance to figure out how to help people and organizations adapt to these changes and others.


To do this, we should watch our terms and our questions.  Read Liz's full post here.

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Tom Hood's curator insight, April 6, 2013 5:16 PM

We just covered this in our townhall this past Monday. Arelene Thomas (AICPA/CGMA) talked about VUCA related to CPAs in Biz/Industry.


VUCA can provide threats [and] offer opportunities, especially if you translate VUCA as “vision, understanding, clarity and agility.” ~ Dr. Bob Johansen

Ivon Prefontaine's curator insight, April 6, 2013 5:26 PM

We need to consider VUCA