We will look back and wonder what madness was this (4% conversion rates) nonsense. What were we thinking.
You don't have to be around me long to hear some favorite themes. I practically stop strangers on the street to discuss why the future converts better. I present tonight to the Triangle Analysts.
I'm not a big believer in PowerPoint with enough information on every slide so everyone in the audience dies twice. Since some, like my friend Steve, can't join us tonight at Chow here are the Top 5 Reasons The Future Converts Better:
* Big Data's Democracy.
* Web Is Weather & We Are Weathermen (and women).
* Mobile Bends Time and Space.
* Magic of Predictive Analytics.
Since chances are you will not be joining us at Chow tonight at 6:30. Here are some quick notes on what each of these ideas means.
I read Asimov as a kid. His idea that the future could be predicted within some mathematical certainty at an aggregate fascinated. In the Foundation Series mankind's history is predictable because there is that much math in the room. An individual's history remained unknown. The individual data sets were too small, but man's future was known.
IF this sounds familiar it is because the web's proprietary linking network is psychohistory. There is so much data at the aggregate every visit to every website in the world can, once we harness the math, be known within some weather forecasting certainty.
Any website is, at its core, a mathematical engine. The amount of feedback, history and data is so complete and complex small futures such as what you will do coming in on X keyword from Y location and making a first click on Z producing the magical 3 touches (come from location, on keyword x, first click behavior). Once we have 3 touches we know your and our future - Asimov's Psychohistory in miniature on a moveable stage we built for the purpose of conversion.
Big Data's Democracy
Ever try to run an A/B test on a site with low traffic? Takes forever to get statistically significant data. Social Nets solve the low data problem. I love that there remain a stalwart group of social marketing naysayers. ARE YOU KIDDING ME, put aside all of your ROI questions and answer me this.
If I could show you a way to pump enough data through even the smallest sites to be able to construct a 3 touch model where your conversions have a 90% or better chance would you be interested. If you say NO then send me a postcard from wherever you end up (lol). Embrace social media for whatever reason works for you, but embrace it you must.
Web Is Weather
What has so much math we can only predict it, we can't know for sure, we guess with intent? The weather and the web are on parallel tracks. Let's Compare by checking similarities between weather and the web:
* Weather is emergent for random but identifiable reasons (check).
* Weather is changeable in erratic patterns (check).
* Weather can surprise, build and destroy simultaneously (check).
* Weather has ideas to predict its behavior except when they don't (check).
* Weather is POWERFUL, exerts influence beyond our understanding (check).
I don't mind being called a weatherman, what about you?
Mobile Bends Time And Space
No marketer at any time has known as much about their customers, segments and archetypes as Internet marketers. Now we know the most undeniable conversion truth - where you are now. This information is stunning in its implication and complexity.
We tap you on the shoulder and you run to the basement, eat can goods and load your guns. We have a permission based conversation IN THIS MOMENT mixing Godin and the best ideas of Tim Ash on landing page conversion and we will create conversion numbers we've only ever seen in dreams.
Mobile's bending time and space into an infinite NOW is going to be worth billions to those who GET IT and a painful but quick departure for those who don't. We've been rehearsed enough, now the real show starts and it’s LOCAL, NOW and it CONVERTS.
Magic Of Predictive Analytics
Quants have taken over Wall Street and they are about to take over Internet marketing at least in the near term. We need the complex algorithms that copulate with Google in ways only Amazon knows how to do now.
Once we, rabbit like, can read the weather, create the shelter needed long before the storms and bask in the sun unafraid we play the game. The game as structured by Bezos and the Google Boys is arbitrage and you don't have to wait for the river or the turn to know playing is mandatory and ruthless.
Arthur C. Clarke said any new technology is indistinguishable from magic. You may be reading this thinking I'm nuts. Please be one of my competitors :).