Crisis, collapse and transition
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The High Cost and Risk of your Projects' Unknown Unknowns

First the BAD news

All of the major project disasters of the past 30 years were overseen or ‘governed’ by otherwise competent executives who did not know what to do or how to act as their project failed.


Via Claude Emond, Philippe Vallat
Philippe Vallat's insight:
  • Project governance is about improving the business.
  • Project governance is about managing the business to realize the business outcomes, benefits and value.
  • The primary measures of success are the full delivery of the clearly specified and measurable desired business outcomes, benefits and value.
  • The key governance role is to protect and deliver the full business value of the project. To ensure that whatever the project is doing, it is not damaging or destroying the business value.
  • The business value is only realized when the solution is fully operational.


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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, May 21, 2014 9:30 AM
  • Project governance is about improving the business.
  • Project governance is about managing the business to realize the business outcomes, benefits and value.
  • The primary measures of success are the full delivery of the clearly specified and measurable desired business outcomes, benefits and value.
  • The key governance role is to protect and deliver the full business value of the project. To ensure that whatever the project is doing, it is not damaging or destroying the business value.
  • The business value is only realized when the solution is fully operational.


Didier Lebouc's comment, May 22, 2014 2:25 PM
I agree on the fact that uknown unknowns are the greatest risks in a project.
Didier Lebouc's comment, May 22, 2014 2:26 PM
I totally disagree on the explanations driven by a clear separation between project (and its "governance") and business. This approach is too mechanical and not sufficiently holistic.
Crisis, collapse and transition
Initially dealing with risks and uncertainty in a complex world, this curation goes newly beyond: about collapse of complex systems and transition.
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Scientists now know the psychology behind your worries about the environment

Scientists now know the psychology behind your worries about the environment | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it
Researchers detect ties between 'systems thinking' and climate change and environmental concern.

Via Steve Wilhite
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« La 'croissance verte' est une mystification absolue »

« La 'croissance verte' est une mystification absolue » | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it
Auteur de L’âge des Low Tech. Vers une civilisation techniquement soutenable, l’ingénieur Philippe Bihouix alerte sur l’épuisement croissant des ressources de métaux. Et souligne que, en raison de leur besoin de métaux rares, les énergies nouvelles ne sont pas la panacée : une énergie illimitée et propre est un mythe, il faut... économiser, recycler, relocaliser. Un entretien énergisant.

Reporterre - Cinq ans après la sortie de votre livre Quel futur pour les métaux ?, votre diagnostic reste-t-il (...)
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Meadows: les limites de la croissance – 2002

Meadows: les limites de la croissance – 2002 | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it

Trente ans de perdus ! ANALYSE SUCCINCTE DU RAPPORT MEADOWS ( MISE A JOUR - 2002) "En conséquence nous sommes plus pessimistes concernant le futur que nous l'étions en 1972" (dans la préface de l'auteur) (extrait du premier article) Croissance de la population mondiale. Il y a 12 000…

Philippe Vallat's insight:

Un article de fond

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Industry in a Low Energy Future: turning to network theory for solutions

Industry in a Low Energy Future: turning to network theory for solutions | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it
Circulate - the go-to location for circular economy related news and insight.
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Collapse of Complex Societies by Dr. Joseph Tainter (Video 1h30)

http://localfuture.org The collapse of complex societies of the past can inform the present on the risks of collapse. Dr. Joseph Tainter, author of the boo
Philippe Vallat's insight:

This is a long conference, but definitely worth watching. No good news, but very clear

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Environnement, climat : trop tard pour agir... depuis toujours

Environnement, climat : trop tard pour agir... depuis toujours | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it
La question de la fin du monde humain pour cause de destruction de l'équilibre écologique vital accepte une réponse rationnelle, vérifiable et définitive.
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On the cusp of collapse: complexity, energy, and the globalised economy

On the cusp of collapse: complexity, energy, and the globalised economy | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it
The systems on which we rely for our financial transactions, food, fuel and livelihoods are so inter-dependent that they are better regarded as facets of a single global system. Maintaining and operating this global system requires a lot of energy and, because the fixed costs of operating it are high, it is only cost-effective if it is run at near full capacity. As a result, if its throughput falls because less energy is available, it does not contract in a gentle, controllable manner. Instead it is subject to catastrophic collapse.
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Antifragile system design principles

Antifragile system design principles | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it

there are certain design principles that emerge from Taleb’s work that can help reduce the fragility of the systems we design.



Philippe Vallat's insight:

Interesting approach. I like especially: "(5) Resist the urge to suppress randomness"

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Chance as a motivator? Uncertainty can make people work harder

Chance as a motivator? Uncertainty can make people work harder | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it
Can uncertainty motivate people to work harder? According to a new study in the Journal of Consumer Research, people will often put in more effort to obtain uncertain rewards.
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Is Unpredictability the New Norm?

Is Unpredictability the New Norm? | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it
In a world of unpredictability, successful companies will harness technologies like Big Data and in-memory computing to extract actionable information.
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Quote: "Recent events have demonstrated just how difficult it is to anticipate and plan for the future. But if unpredictability has become the new norm, we should not be surprised."

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Nassim NicholنTaleb : Genealogy of my version of the Black Swan Problem and intersection of mathematics/philosophy/FatTonyism

Nassim NicholنTaleb : Genealogy of my version of the Black Swan Problem and intersection of mathematics/philosophy/FatTonyism | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it
Genealogy of my version of the Black Swan Problem and intersection of mathematics/philosophy/FatTonyism pic.twitter.com/MUEY5IlC77
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Limits Revisited

Limits Revisited | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it
A new review of Club of Rome’s landmark publication Limits to Growth was recently published. Limits Revisited traces the history of the Club of Rome’s report and dispels some of the myths surrounding it. Limits Revisited draws attention to certain limits which were all but unforeseen in the 1972 report. It highlights in particular the enormous challenge of meeting the 1.50C climate change target established in the Paris Agreement. It also explores the economic and financial challenges of a ‘secular stagnation’. http://limits2growth.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Jackson-and-Webster-2016-Limits-Revisited.pdf

Via Jürgen Kanz
Philippe Vallat's insight:

From the summary:

"There is unsettling evidence that society is still following the ‘standard run’ of the original study – in which overshoot leads to an eventual collapse of production and living standards. Detailed recent studies suggests that production of some key resources may only be decades away.

If the Club of Rome is right, the next few decades are decisive. One of the most important lessons from the study is that early responses are absolutely vital as limits are approached. Faced with these challenges, there is also clearly a premium on creating political space for change and developing positive narratives
of progress. "

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There's No Tomorrow (limits to growth & the future) (video 30')

Short cartoon presenting the relevant facts about growth, energy and the collapse

 

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Collapse des systèmes complexes

Collapse des systèmes complexes | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it

Pourquoi parler d’effondrement et de collapse de notre civilisation ? Parce que le faisceau d’informations factuelles est très convergent, parce que cela a à voir avec les systèmes complexes, et parce que la résilience, individuelle et collective, commence par l’acceptation de la réalité telle qu’elle est.

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Pierre Mongin 's curator insight, April 28, 4:14 AM
juin excellente synthése du film Demain 
Jürgen Kanz's curator insight, May 1, 11:57 AM
The authors are referring to the paper of Graham M. Turner "On the cusp of global collapse?". This document is available here: https://www.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/usys/ites/ecosystem-management-dam/documents/EducationDOC/Readings_DOC/Turner_2012_GAIA_LimitsToGrowth.pdf
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"Nous avons lancé le processus de deuil de notre propre espèce"

"Nous avons lancé le processus de deuil de notre propre espèce" | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it
Paul Jorion n'est pas de ceux qui vous redonnent foi en l'avenir. Dans son dernier ouvrage Le dernier qui s'en va éteint la lumière, l'anthropologue estime qu'il ne reste que deux ou trois générations à l'humanité avant de disparaître. Pour Nom de Zeus, il explique pourquoi la fin est si proche. Entretien pré-apocalypse.
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Démographie, énergie, climat : l’équation explosive

Démographie, énergie, climat : l’équation explosive | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it
Démographie, énergie, climat : l’équation explosive
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Conclusion de l'auteur: "La réalité cruelle, c'est que si l'on n'agit pas, à la fin c'est la géologie qui gagne."

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Pablo Servigne: penser l’effondrement de notre monde (vidéo, 38')

Les yeux sont rivés sur la Grèce et la possibilité que le pays s’effondre. Pablo Servigne réfléchit, plus généralement, à la manière d’envisager l’avenir
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Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?

Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'? | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it
Nafeez Ahmed: Natural and social scientists develop new model of how 'perfect storm' of crises could unravel global system
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Edgar Morin : "Le temps est venu de changer de civilisation"

Edgar Morin : "Le temps est venu de changer de civilisation" | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it

Dans un entretien exceptionnel, le sociologue et philosophe Edgar Morin ausculte, du haut de ses 94 ans, l’état du monde et celui de la France. Economie, Front national, islam, fanatisme, immigration, mondialisation, Europe, démocratie, environnement

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Vertus et vices de la comédie sécuritaire

Vertus et vices de la comédie sécuritaire | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it
Effets du terrorisme Les effets d'une attaque terroriste sont de deux types; directs et indirects. Les effets directs sont les victimes, destructions, causés par les terroristes. Ces effets directs…
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If Greece Embraces Uncertainty, Innovation Will Follow

If Greece Embraces Uncertainty, Innovation Will Follow | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it

Countries that score high on uncertainty avoidance score low on innovation (as measured in the innovation union scoreboard of the European Commission) and high on bureaucracy (as measured on the easiness to do business ranking of the World Bank).

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Antifragile Fitness: why you should fast more, sprint less…and do press-ups all the time

Antifragile Fitness: why you should fast more, sprint less…and do press-ups all the time | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it
Life is tough, and also unpredictable. Nicholas Taleb has made a literary career out of pointing this out - after making at least two fortunes betting on it as a risk analyst. To massively oversimp...
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Are We Creating "Fragile" Systems And Organizations?

Are We Creating "Fragile" Systems And Organizations? | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it
"Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty."  -Nassim Taleb 'Antifragile: Thing...

Via Jürgen Kanz
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Antifragile – Black Box

Antifragile – Black Box | Crisis, collapse and transition | Scoop.it
  Not only does Taleb link the notions of Failure with Leadership and Management, but he often delves into other adjacent topics that I’ve also found myself meandering down. One of the most pr...
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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, November 3, 2014 11:16 AM

Some good points about unpredictability, data, ignorance...