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Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Complex systems and projects
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The High Cost and Risk of your Projects' Unknown Unknowns

First the BAD news

All of the major project disasters of the past 30 years were overseen or ‘governed’ by otherwise competent executives who did not know what to do or how to act as their project failed.


Via Claude Emond, Philippe Vallat
Philippe Vallat's insight:
  • Project governance is about improving the business.
  • Project governance is about managing the business to realize the business outcomes, benefits and value.
  • The primary measures of success are the full delivery of the clearly specified and measurable desired business outcomes, benefits and value.
  • The key governance role is to protect and deliver the full business value of the project. To ensure that whatever the project is doing, it is not damaging or destroying the business value.
  • The business value is only realized when the solution is fully operational.


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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, May 21, 9:30 AM
  • Project governance is about improving the business.
  • Project governance is about managing the business to realize the business outcomes, benefits and value.
  • The primary measures of success are the full delivery of the clearly specified and measurable desired business outcomes, benefits and value.
  • The key governance role is to protect and deliver the full business value of the project. To ensure that whatever the project is doing, it is not damaging or destroying the business value.
  • The business value is only realized when the solution is fully operational.


Didier Lebouc's comment, May 22, 2:25 PM
I agree on the fact that uknown unknowns are the greatest risks in a project.
Didier Lebouc's comment, May 22, 2:26 PM
I totally disagree on the explanations driven by a clear separation between project (and its "governance") and business. This approach is too mechanical and not sufficiently holistic.
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Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Complex systems and projects
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The High Cost and Risk of your Projects' Unknown Unknowns

First the BAD news

All of the major project disasters of the past 30 years were overseen or ‘governed’ by otherwise competent executives who did not know what to do or how to act as their project failed.


Via Claude Emond, Philippe Vallat
Philippe Vallat's insight:
  • Project governance is about improving the business.
  • Project governance is about managing the business to realize the business outcomes, benefits and value.
  • The primary measures of success are the full delivery of the clearly specified and measurable desired business outcomes, benefits and value.
  • The key governance role is to protect and deliver the full business value of the project. To ensure that whatever the project is doing, it is not damaging or destroying the business value.
  • The business value is only realized when the solution is fully operational.


more...
Philippe Vallat's curator insight, May 21, 9:30 AM
  • Project governance is about improving the business.
  • Project governance is about managing the business to realize the business outcomes, benefits and value.
  • The primary measures of success are the full delivery of the clearly specified and measurable desired business outcomes, benefits and value.
  • The key governance role is to protect and deliver the full business value of the project. To ensure that whatever the project is doing, it is not damaging or destroying the business value.
  • The business value is only realized when the solution is fully operational.


Didier Lebouc's comment, May 22, 2:25 PM
I agree on the fact that uknown unknowns are the greatest risks in a project.
Didier Lebouc's comment, May 22, 2:26 PM
I totally disagree on the explanations driven by a clear separation between project (and its "governance") and business. This approach is too mechanical and not sufficiently holistic.
Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Influence vs manipulation
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Are You Too Tentative? Four Ways To Take Smarter Risks, Not Just Safe Ones

Are You Too Tentative? Four Ways To Take Smarter Risks, Not Just Safe Ones | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
When weighing a risk, potential losses tend to loom larger than potential gains. That is, we tend to focus more on what might go wrong ? what we might lose or sacrifice ? than what might go right.

Via Barb Jemmott, Jean-Philippe D'HALLUIN
Philippe Vallat's insight:

History has shown that we fail far more from timidity than we do from over daring.

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Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Complex systems and projects
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Zones d’inconfort et ancres de certitude (1/2): la peur

Zones d’inconfort et ancres de certitude (1/2): la peur | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it

Qu'on le veuille ou pas, l'incertitude génère inconfort, inquiétude, peur voire anxiété, soit des émotions « managérialement incorrectes » dans un monde où certains croient encore dur comme fer que la décision dite rationnelle est le summum de l'intelligence de l'homo economicus.

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, April 7, 3:07 AM

1ère partie d'une réflexion sur les ancres de certitude: la peur

Anne-Laure Delpech's curator insight, April 7, 4:24 AM

Un excellent billet sur l'incertitude, la peur et le courage ! 

A lire absolument pour avoir une vision synthétique de ce que l'incertitude provoque chez nous et chez les autres. 

Loïc CARO's curator insight, April 7, 4:37 AM
Anne-Laure Delpech's insight:

"Un excellent billet sur l'incertitude, la peur et le courage ! 

A lire absolument pour avoir une vision synthétique de ce que l'incertitude provoque chez nous et chez les autres. "

Avec plaisir!

Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Safety Risk
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‘False Consciousness’ and Perception in Risk and Safety

‘False Consciousness’ and Perception in Risk and Safety | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
Very thought provoking article by Dr Rob Long from Human Dymensions.

Via Dave Collins
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Counterintelligence Now Riskier Than Terrorism, Intelligence Officials Report

Counterintelligence Now Riskier Than Terrorism, Intelligence Officials Report | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
During a Senate hearing yesterday, top U.S. intelligence officials released a new threat assessment report that outlines the top risks to national security.
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4ème semaine du MOOC Effectuation: Retour sur l'incertitude et le risque

4ème semaine du MOOC Effectuation: Retour sur l'incertitude et le risque | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
La 4ème session était donc consacrée spécifiquement à l'incertitude et à la différence entre incertitude et risque. Revenons sur ces principes au nom parfois étrange... Le risque, il concerne un fu...
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Définitions intéressantes:

Le risque concerne un futur dont la distribution d’états possibles n’est pas connue a priori, mais estimable sur la base d’un certain nombre de tirage.

L’incertitude, en revanche, correspond à un futur dont la distribution d’états est non seulement inconnue, mais impossible à connaître. Cette incertitude est dite « objective » : elle ne tient pas à l’incompétence de l’observateur mais à la nature même du phénomène

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Uncertainty management of projects from the owners’ perspective, with main focus on managing delivered functionality

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, November 6, 2013 12:30 PM

The study shows that the projects’ uncertainty management did not have a project owner’s perspective, but was mainly focused on the success factors of the project management. In the quantitative part of the studies it was found that a great majority (91%) of the risk elements in the projects studied were operational risks; i.e. risks mainly concerning the projects’ operational goals. Also, most of the projects’ risk elements were threats (67%)

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Difficulty in Modeling for Terrorism

Difficulty in Modeling for Terrorism | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
The following is an excerpt from the RIMS executive report “Terrorism Risk Insurance Act: The Commercial Consumer’s Perspective.” The report is available for download here.
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Agile and Risk Management: Prioritization Techniques, Part 1 ...

Agile and Risk Management: Prioritization Techniques, Part 1 ... | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
The difference between the classic and Agile approaches to risk management boils down to a few serious dichotomies. The first is that classic methods tend to be project-manager driven, while Agile processes involve and ...
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Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Une passion pour l'humain dans toutes ses vérités :-) by Pharmacomptoir
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Arbre de décision en communication de crise

Arbre de décision en communication de crise | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it

Via Morgane Gourvennec, Mounira HAMDI, Bruno Sanlaville , Pharmacomptoir / Corinne Thuderoz
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Morgane Gourvennec's curator insight, August 5, 2013 11:06 AM

Arbre de décisions

Antoine Gravet's curator insight, August 9, 2013 12:00 PM

Comment gérer une crise, un bad buzz en communicant, gérer son identité numérique, sa marque employeur, la solution dans la communication par ici...

Djebar Hammouche's curator insight, August 16, 2013 3:17 AM

Crisis Communication Network 

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Protecting the Enterprise Against Unconventional Competitive Social Risks

Protecting the Enterprise Against Unconventional Competitive Social Risks | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
Today’s “social age” has brought many changes to the corporate world and increased the competitive threats enterprises have to deal with on an ongoing basis.
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Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Mindfull Decision Making
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Communicating the uncertainty in science is necessary to improve public confidence and decision-making of non-specialists

Communicating the uncertainty in science is necessary to improve public confidence and decision-making of non-specialists | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
Uncertainty is part of science. But is scientific uncertainty a reason to worry about the reliability of findings? Tabitha Innocent presents a new public guide, Making Sense of Uncertainty, where s...
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Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Complex systems and projects
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Le facteur chance? Philippe Gabilliet

Philippe GABILLIET, Docteur en Sciences de Gestion, Professeur Associé et Directeur Académique du Executive European MBA (biograpphie: http://escpeuro.pe/1ab...
Philippe Vallat's insight:

La chance, une compétence qui se travaille:

1) posture de vigilance, curiosité, sortir de ses routines

2) se constituer un réseau, devenir celui qui met les autres en relation

3) être conscient que la chance ne marche pas toujours, transformer les échecs en projets

4) anticipation: avoir un projet d'avance

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, July 18, 4:45 AM

La chance, une compétence qui se travaille:

1) posture de vigilance, curiosité, sortir de ses routines

2) se constituer un réseau, devenir celui qui met les autres en relation

3) être conscient que la chance ne marche pas toujours, transformer les échecs en projets

4) anticipation: avoir un projet d'avance

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Antifragile: what phenomena Gains from Disorder (Incerto)?

Antifragile: what can Gain from Disorder (Incerto)?  And Nassim Nicholas Taleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals ...
Philippe Vallat's insight:

The Black Swan theory states: “In complex systems, especially man-made complex systems, it is not feasible to comprehend all the interactions among the hundred of variables affecting outcomes.

In Antifragile, Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner.

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THE FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS | N. Taleb

THE FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS | N. Taleb | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it

Statistical and applied probabilistic knowledge is the core of knowledge; statistics is what tells you if something is true, false, or merely anecdotal; it is the "logic of science"; it is the instrument of risk-taking; it is the applied tools of epistemology; you can't be a modern intellectual and not think probabilistically—but... let's not be suckers. The problem is much more complicated than it seems to the casual, mechanistic user who picked it up in graduate school.

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The four types of incertitude – Tom Vladeck

The four types of incertitude – Tom Vladeck | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it

This post was inspired by a recent tweet:

With uncertainty the underlying distribution of outcomes is undefined; with risk we know the distribution. http://t.co/rnUtv32YOg

— Tren Griffin (@trengriffin) March 30, 2014

Philippe Vallat's insight:

About risk - uncertainty - ambiguity - ignorance

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Miklos Szilagyi's curator insight, April 12, 12:40 PM

Good point... look at the quadrates of outcome/probability and certitude/incertitude...:-))) that is it...

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The Failure of Risk Management in Information Systems Projects

New product development projects are highly risky technical undertakings. Organizations frequently seek to manage the risk involved using standard risk management procedures, knowing that a company that better manages risks is less vulnerable. Nevertheless, NPD projects continue to fail to meet expectations for delivery time, budget, and outcomes. In this paper, we explore reasons why, despite employing self-evidently correct risk management procedures, adversities occurred in 19 major information systems projects. Project managers focused on the familiar, the measurable, the favorable, the noncommittal, and the controllable while excluding other risks that significantly affected their project performance. We have characterized this tendency as a series of five lures that leave projects vulnerable to risks.

Philippe Vallat's insight:

Quote: All too often, risk management rests upon what can easily be counted-what we call the "lure of the measurable."


Albert Einstein once wrote on a blackboard: “Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.”...

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Fragile, Resilient & Antifragile

Fragile, Resilient & Antifragile | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
There are three types of reactions that people make towards stress in their life. These reactions define how we live our lives. Stress is an inevitable aspect of life that can only be avoided if yo...
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Using Chaos Theory to Predict and Prevent Catastrophic 'Dragon King' Events

Using Chaos Theory to Predict and Prevent Catastrophic 'Dragon King' Events | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it

Stop a stock trade and avoid a catastrophic global financial crash. Seal a microscopic crack and prevent a rocket explosion. Push a button to avert a citywide blackout.

Though such situations are mostly fantasies, a new analysis suggests that certain types of extreme events occurring in complex systems – known as dragon king events – can be predicted and prevented.


Via Claudia Mihai, Complexity Digest, Philippe Vallat
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Ali Anani's curator insight, November 9, 2013 3:54 AM

Can we control  the uncontrollable? 

Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from CASR3PM
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The Conditional Complexity of Risk Models - The State of Security

The Conditional Complexity of Risk Models - The State of Security | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
“Conditional complexity” (also called cyclomatic complexity) is a term used to measure the complexity of software. The term refers to the number of possible paths through a program function; a higher value means higher maintenance and testing costs.

Via Christophe Bredillet
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From Cascading Complexity To Systemic Collapse: A Walk Thru "Society's Equivalent Of A Heart Attack"

From Cascading Complexity To Systemic Collapse: A Walk Thru "Society's Equivalent Of A Heart Attack" | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it

To make the systems we depend upon more resilient ideally we would want more redundancy within critical systems and weaker coupling between them. Localization and de-complexification of basic needs (food, water, waste etc) would provide some societal resilience if systems resilience was lost. We would have more buffering at all levels, that is, larger inventories throughout society.

All this is the very opposite of the direction of economic forces.

 

 

Philippe Vallat's insight:

How vulnerable is our society?

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Guide pratique pour la Maîtrise et la Gestion des Risques

Le management des risques a pour objectif de ramener les risques
encourus à un niveau résiduel acceptable. Il repose sur trois fondements :
1. Méthodes et outils
2. Pratiques professionnelles (culture)
3. Comportement individuel des acteurs face aux risques.

Philippe Vallat's insight:

Un document complet et bien fait sur la gestion des risques (projet GERMA), 2012, même s'il axe sur le génie civil et urbain.

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Djebar Hammouche's curator insight, August 16, 2013 2:16 PM
Guide pratique pour la Maîtrise et la Gestion des Risques
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Is Your Business Fragile? Or Antifragile?

Is Your Business Fragile? Or Antifragile? | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
Is Your Business Fragile? Or Antifragile?
LinkedIn Today
Inanimate objects are virtually never antifragile, but organic objects and complex systems often are.

Via Spaceweaver
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Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Futurable Planet: Answers from a Shifted Paradigm.
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Skin in the Game as a Required Heuristic for Acting under Uncertainty

Skin in the Game as a Required Heuristic for Acting under Uncertainty | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
How are we to act in the face of all the uncertainty that remains after we have become aware of our ignorance?

Via Anne Caspari
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Anne Caspari's curator insight, August 6, 2013 7:28 AM

"We believe skin in the game is the heuristics of a safe and just society. Opposed to this is the unethical practice of taking all the praise and benefits of good fortune whilst disassociating oneself from the results of bad luck or miscalculation. We situate our view within the framework of ethical debates relating to the moral significance of actions whose effects result from ignorance and luck. We shall demonstrate how the idea of skin in the game can effectively resolve debates about (a) moral luck and (b) egoism vs. altruism, while successfully bypassing (c) debates between subjectivist and objectivist norms of action under uncertainty, by showing how their concerns are of no pragmatic concern." 

 

read Taleb`s book Antifragile, it is one of the best/most intelligently written books I have read in ages. AC