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Are You Too Tentative? Four Ways To Take Smarter Risks, Not Just Safe Ones

Are You Too Tentative? Four Ways To Take Smarter Risks, Not Just Safe Ones | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
When weighing a risk, potential losses tend to loom larger than potential gains. That is, we tend to focus more on what might go wrong ? what we might lose or sacrifice ? than what might go right.

Via Barb Jemmott, Jean-Philippe D'HALLUIN
Philippe Vallat's insight:

History has shown that we fail far more from timidity than we do from over daring.

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Black swans, risks and crisis
Dealing with risks and uncertainty in a complex world
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Chance as a motivator? Uncertainty can make people work harder

Chance as a motivator? Uncertainty can make people work harder | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
Can uncertainty motivate people to work harder? According to a new study in the Journal of Consumer Research, people will often put in more effort to obtain uncertain rewards.
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Is Unpredictability the New Norm?

Is Unpredictability the New Norm? | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
In a world of unpredictability, successful companies will harness technologies like Big Data and in-memory computing to extract actionable information.
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Quote: "Recent events have demonstrated just how difficult it is to anticipate and plan for the future. But if unpredictability has become the new norm, we should not be surprised."

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Nassim NicholنTaleb : Genealogy of my version of the Black Swan Problem and intersection of mathematics/philosophy/FatTonyism

Nassim NicholنTaleb : Genealogy of my version of the Black Swan Problem and intersection of mathematics/philosophy/FatTonyism | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
Genealogy of my version of the Black Swan Problem and intersection of mathematics/philosophy/FatTonyism pic.twitter.com/MUEY5IlC77
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Agile IS Risk Management

How applying core agile principles make the development process robust and at times antifragile to the disorder of uncertain events, allowing us to avoid harm …
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Interesting merge btw Agile and Risk Management

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, August 4, 2014 1:15 PM

Interesting merge btw Agile and Risk Management

Sección de Metodologías de la Universidad de Murcia's curator insight, October 16, 2014 4:01 AM

How to handle project risk? One option is managing risk via the Product Backlog, handling risk as a factor in priorization. More info at http://fr.slideshare.net/Innolution/agile-isriskmanagementagile2014kenrubininnolution

 

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Le facteur chance? Philippe Gabilliet

Philippe GABILLIET, Docteur en Sciences de Gestion, Professeur Associé et Directeur Académique du Executive European MBA (biograpphie: http://escpeuro.pe/1ab...
Philippe Vallat's insight:

La chance, une compétence qui se travaille:

1) posture de vigilance, curiosité, sortir de ses routines

2) se constituer un réseau, devenir celui qui met les autres en relation

3) être conscient que la chance ne marche pas toujours, transformer les échecs en projets

4) anticipation: avoir un projet d'avance

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, July 18, 2014 4:45 AM

La chance, une compétence qui se travaille:

1) posture de vigilance, curiosité, sortir de ses routines

2) se constituer un réseau, devenir celui qui met les autres en relation

3) être conscient que la chance ne marche pas toujours, transformer les échecs en projets

4) anticipation: avoir un projet d'avance

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Antifragile: what phenomena Gains from Disorder (Incerto)?

Antifragile: what can Gain from Disorder (Incerto)?  And Nassim Nicholas Taleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals ...
Philippe Vallat's insight:

The Black Swan theory states: “In complex systems, especially man-made complex systems, it is not feasible to comprehend all the interactions among the hundred of variables affecting outcomes.

In Antifragile, Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner.

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THE FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS | N. Taleb

THE FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS | N. Taleb | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it

Statistical and applied probabilistic knowledge is the core of knowledge; statistics is what tells you if something is true, false, or merely anecdotal; it is the "logic of science"; it is the instrument of risk-taking; it is the applied tools of epistemology; you can't be a modern intellectual and not think probabilistically—but... let's not be suckers. The problem is much more complicated than it seems to the casual, mechanistic user who picked it up in graduate school.

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The four types of incertitude – Tom Vladeck

The four types of incertitude – Tom Vladeck | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it

This post was inspired by a recent tweet:

With uncertainty the underlying distribution of outcomes is undefined; with risk we know the distribution. http://t.co/rnUtv32YOg

— Tren Griffin (@trengriffin) March 30, 2014

Philippe Vallat's insight:

About risk - uncertainty - ambiguity - ignorance

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Miklos Szilagyi's curator insight, April 12, 2014 12:40 PM

Good point... look at the quadrates of outcome/probability and certitude/incertitude...:-))) that is it...

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The Failure of Risk Management in Information Systems Projects

New product development projects are highly risky technical undertakings. Organizations frequently seek to manage the risk involved using standard risk management procedures, knowing that a company that better manages risks is less vulnerable. Nevertheless, NPD projects continue to fail to meet expectations for delivery time, budget, and outcomes. In this paper, we explore reasons why, despite employing self-evidently correct risk management procedures, adversities occurred in 19 major information systems projects. Project managers focused on the familiar, the measurable, the favorable, the noncommittal, and the controllable while excluding other risks that significantly affected their project performance. We have characterized this tendency as a series of five lures that leave projects vulnerable to risks.

Philippe Vallat's insight:

Quote: All too often, risk management rests upon what can easily be counted-what we call the "lure of the measurable."


Albert Einstein once wrote on a blackboard: “Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.”...

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Fragile, Resilient & Antifragile

Fragile, Resilient & Antifragile | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
There are three types of reactions that people make towards stress in their life. These reactions define how we live our lives. Stress is an inevitable aspect of life that can only be avoided if yo...
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Using Chaos Theory to Predict and Prevent Catastrophic 'Dragon King' Events

Using Chaos Theory to Predict and Prevent Catastrophic 'Dragon King' Events | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it

Stop a stock trade and avoid a catastrophic global financial crash. Seal a microscopic crack and prevent a rocket explosion. Push a button to avert a citywide blackout.

Though such situations are mostly fantasies, a new analysis suggests that certain types of extreme events occurring in complex systems – known as dragon king events – can be predicted and prevented.


Via Claudia Mihai, Complexity Digest, Philippe Vallat
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Ali Anani's curator insight, November 9, 2013 3:54 AM

Can we control  the uncontrollable? 

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The Conditional Complexity of Risk Models - The State of Security

The Conditional Complexity of Risk Models - The State of Security | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
“Conditional complexity” (also called cyclomatic complexity) is a term used to measure the complexity of software. The term refers to the number of possible paths through a program function; a higher value means higher maintenance and testing costs.

Via Christophe Bredillet
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If Greece Embraces Uncertainty, Innovation Will Follow

If Greece Embraces Uncertainty, Innovation Will Follow | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it

Countries that score high on uncertainty avoidance score low on innovation (as measured in the innovation union scoreboard of the European Commission) and high on bureaucracy (as measured on the easiness to do business ranking of the World Bank).

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Antifragile Fitness: why you should fast more, sprint less…and do press-ups all the time

Antifragile Fitness: why you should fast more, sprint less…and do press-ups all the time | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
Life is tough, and also unpredictable. Nicholas Taleb has made a literary career out of pointing this out - after making at least two fortunes betting on it as a risk analyst. To massively oversimp...
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Are We Creating "Fragile" Systems And Organizations?

Are We Creating "Fragile" Systems And Organizations? | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
"Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty."  -Nassim Taleb 'Antifragile: Thing...

Via Jürgen Kanz
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Antifragile – Black Box

Antifragile – Black Box | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
  Not only does Taleb link the notions of Failure with Leadership and Management, but he often delves into other adjacent topics that I’ve also found myself meandering down. One of the most pr...
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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, November 3, 2014 11:16 AM

Some good points about unpredictability, data, ignorance...

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How to build an antifragile business that gains from disorder, uncertainty, and failure

How to build an antifragile business that gains from disorder, uncertainty, and failure | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
Most businesses break from uncertainty, some survive (barely), but a rare few GAIN from uncertainty because they are antifragile. Here's how.
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The High Cost and Risk of your Projects' Unknown Unknowns

First the BAD news

All of the major project disasters of the past 30 years were overseen or ‘governed’ by otherwise competent executives who did not know what to do or how to act as their project failed.


Via Claude Emond, Philippe Vallat
Philippe Vallat's insight:
  • Project governance is about improving the business.
  • Project governance is about managing the business to realize the business outcomes, benefits and value.
  • The primary measures of success are the full delivery of the clearly specified and measurable desired business outcomes, benefits and value.
  • The key governance role is to protect and deliver the full business value of the project. To ensure that whatever the project is doing, it is not damaging or destroying the business value.
  • The business value is only realized when the solution is fully operational.


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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, May 21, 2014 9:30 AM
  • Project governance is about improving the business.
  • Project governance is about managing the business to realize the business outcomes, benefits and value.
  • The primary measures of success are the full delivery of the clearly specified and measurable desired business outcomes, benefits and value.
  • The key governance role is to protect and deliver the full business value of the project. To ensure that whatever the project is doing, it is not damaging or destroying the business value.
  • The business value is only realized when the solution is fully operational.


Didier Lebouc's comment, May 22, 2014 2:25 PM
I agree on the fact that uknown unknowns are the greatest risks in a project.
Didier Lebouc's comment, May 22, 2014 2:26 PM
I totally disagree on the explanations driven by a clear separation between project (and its "governance") and business. This approach is too mechanical and not sufficiently holistic.
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Are You Too Tentative? Four Ways To Take Smarter Risks, Not Just Safe Ones

Are You Too Tentative? Four Ways To Take Smarter Risks, Not Just Safe Ones | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
When weighing a risk, potential losses tend to loom larger than potential gains. That is, we tend to focus more on what might go wrong ? what we might lose or sacrifice ? than what might go right.

Via Barb Jemmott, Jean-Philippe D'HALLUIN
Philippe Vallat's insight:

History has shown that we fail far more from timidity than we do from over daring.

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Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Complex systems and projects
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Zones d’inconfort et ancres de certitude (1/2): la peur

Zones d’inconfort et ancres de certitude (1/2): la peur | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it

Qu'on le veuille ou pas, l'incertitude génère inconfort, inquiétude, peur voire anxiété, soit des émotions « managérialement incorrectes » dans un monde où certains croient encore dur comme fer que la décision dite rationnelle est le summum de l'intelligence de l'homo economicus.

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, April 7, 2014 3:07 AM

1ère partie d'une réflexion sur les ancres de certitude: la peur

Anne-Laure Delpech's curator insight, April 7, 2014 4:24 AM

Un excellent billet sur l'incertitude, la peur et le courage ! 

A lire absolument pour avoir une vision synthétique de ce que l'incertitude provoque chez nous et chez les autres. 

Loïc CARO's curator insight, April 7, 2014 4:37 AM
Anne-Laure Delpech's insight:

"Un excellent billet sur l'incertitude, la peur et le courage ! 

A lire absolument pour avoir une vision synthétique de ce que l'incertitude provoque chez nous et chez les autres. "

Avec plaisir!

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‘False Consciousness’ and Perception in Risk and Safety

‘False Consciousness’ and Perception in Risk and Safety | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
Very thought provoking article by Dr Rob Long from Human Dymensions.

Via Dave Collins
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Counterintelligence Now Riskier Than Terrorism, Intelligence Officials Report

Counterintelligence Now Riskier Than Terrorism, Intelligence Officials Report | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
During a Senate hearing yesterday, top U.S. intelligence officials released a new threat assessment report that outlines the top risks to national security.
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4ème semaine du MOOC Effectuation: Retour sur l'incertitude et le risque

4ème semaine du MOOC Effectuation: Retour sur l'incertitude et le risque | Black swans, risks and crisis | Scoop.it
La 4ème session était donc consacrée spécifiquement à l'incertitude et à la différence entre incertitude et risque. Revenons sur ces principes au nom parfois étrange... Le risque, il concerne un fu...
Philippe Vallat's insight:

Définitions intéressantes:

Le risque concerne un futur dont la distribution d’états possibles n’est pas connue a priori, mais estimable sur la base d’un certain nombre de tirage.

L’incertitude, en revanche, correspond à un futur dont la distribution d’états est non seulement inconnue, mais impossible à connaître. Cette incertitude est dite « objective » : elle ne tient pas à l’incompétence de l’observateur mais à la nature même du phénomène

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Uncertainty management of projects from the owners’ perspective, with main focus on managing delivered functionality

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, November 6, 2013 12:30 PM

The study shows that the projects’ uncertainty management did not have a project owner’s perspective, but was mainly focused on the success factors of the project management. In the quantitative part of the studies it was found that a great majority (91%) of the risk elements in the projects studied were operational risks; i.e. risks mainly concerning the projects’ operational goals. Also, most of the projects’ risk elements were threats (67%)