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Every Model is Wrong | Free Radical

Every Model is Wrong | Free Radical | Behaviour | Scoop.it
We have been discussing Austrians and their relationship to "mainstream" economics here lately and that topic raises a lot of issues. I want to go into some of those issues in depth but I want to address them in a very broad ...
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Workshop: Argumentation, Rationality and Decision | RAIL

Workshop: Argumentation, Rationality and Decision | RAIL | Behaviour | Scoop.it
Argumentation, Rationality and Decision Imperial College London, 18th-19th September 2014 Argumentation, initially studied in philosophy and law, has in recent years been the subject of extensive formal research in ...
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Explainer: neuroeconomics, where science and economics meet - The Conversation

Explainer: neuroeconomics, where science and economics meet - The Conversation | Behaviour | Scoop.it
Explainer: neuroeconomics, where science and economics meet
The Conversation
This has been possible because of the increased collaboration of researchers from three disciplines: economics, neuroscience and psychology.
Peter Lawlor's insight:

Fascinating in its utter cluelessness: the woman is very nearly illiterate, e.g. "Decision-making is perhaps the most crucial and defining part of our lives. We spend every awake minute of our lives deciding. Some decisions may seem basic but are necessary for survival, such as what to eat or drink"; if her knowledge of economics could be assigned a number, it would not be a positive one, for example, "Economists have been interested in decision-making to the extent that it would allow them to improve well-being. The idea is that once we can predict people’s behaviour, we ought to be able to design economies with a set of rules that makes everybody better off."

What a clueless moron she is. Economics is an attempt to construct a science of decision making by AGENTS; she commits the mereological fallacy, "We now understand the basic architecture of the brain and how it actually makes choices." MORON, the brain does not make choices any more that my hand plays squash, or my foot kicks you in the teeth; the final extract is of such utter utter incompetence that it can speak for itself: "Towards the end of their lives though, people appear to lose their decision-making abilities. Studies have shown that even highly functioning older adults have trouble choosing the retirement and health plans that would meet their needs. They make errors when voting and can lose substantial amounts of money by making very simple mistakes." 

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Best Selling Economics Writer Piketty Defends His Data After Paper's Criticism ... - International Business Times

Best Selling Economics Writer Piketty Defends His Data After Paper's Criticism ... - International Business Times | Behaviour | Scoop.it
Manawatu Standard
Best Selling Economics Writer Piketty Defends His Data After Paper's Criticism ...
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Why economics needs a revolution - mydigitalfc.com

Why economics needs a revolution - mydigitalfc.com | Behaviour | Scoop.it
mydigitalfc.com
Why economics needs a revolution
mydigitalfc.com
The controversy surrounding Yilmaz reflects a broader revolt spreading among economics students.
Peter Lawlor's insight:

Another piece of economic illiteracy. Here are some examples Fred:

 

1. "students should absorb a standard canon founded on rational behaviour and convergence to a benign equilibrium — the very ideas that failed so spectacularly in the past decade." 


Even back in the 80s we were taught about disequilibrium, market failure, and imperfect information. Notice that guy, like so many other commentators, conflates "rationality" with "perfect foresight", the ARE NOT THE SAME.


2. "In one online discussion, he explained that students need more exposure to different mathematical methods and basic principles of science. That way, they’ll be better equipped to judge the empirical plausibility of a theory —and able to spot the absurd assumptions hidden in so many of the models economists use to explain the world."


It is strange that he makes the point that students need more "exposure to the basic principles of science", that is true, but he seems to have missed the notion of "instrumentalism".  The predictive accuracy of a model may be in spite of its unrealistic assumptions.

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Reducing our humanity is the cause of many of our ills - Financial Times

Reducing our humanity is the cause of many of our ills - Financial Times | Behaviour | Scoop.it
Reducing our humanity is the cause of many of our ills
Financial Times
At our first tutorial, the tutor introduced us to the fact that “man is a rational being”. When he asked for questions, I raised a timid hand: “Hasn't man got feelings too?
Peter Lawlor's insight:
A typically confused critique of the foundations of economics. The persistent habit of the critics to conflate "rationality" with "selfish behaviour" is moronic.
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Angry economics students are naive – and mostly right - FT.com

Angry economics students are naive – and mostly right - FT.com | Behaviour | Scoop.it
Students of economics are in revolt – again. A few years ago, even before the crisis, they established an “autistic economics” network. After the crisis, in 2011, a Harvard class staged a walkout from Gregory Mankiw’s introductory course.
Peter Lawlor's insight:

The notion of students with little or no knowledge of economic theory, (and absolutely no knowledge of commerce), feeling confident that they know economic theory to be wrongheaded is utterly preposterous. They may be right, but only by luck. 

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Will Economics Finally Get Its Paradigm Shift? - Justin Fox - Harvard ...

Will Economics Finally Get Its Paradigm Shift? - Justin Fox - Harvard ... | Behaviour | Scoop.it
On the theoretical side, there seems to be much less consensus than there was 50 years ago about what rational behavior under uncertainty even looks like. When an economist suggests, even jokingly, that it's time for the ...
Peter Lawlor's insight:

let's see if this guy understands economics

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A Possibilistic Hierarchical Model for Behaviour Under Uncertainty.

A Possibilistic Hierarchical Model for Behaviour Under Uncertainty. | Behaviour | Scoop.it
Hierarchical models are commonly used for modelling uncertainty. They arise whenever there is a `correct' or `ideal' uncertainty model but the modeller is uncertain about what it is. Hierarchical models which ...
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IMF Chief Warns That Low Inflation Poses Risk to Global Economy - Wall Street Journal

IMF Chief Warns That Low Inflation Poses Risk to Global Economy - Wall Street Journal | Behaviour | Scoop.it
IMF Chief Warns That Low Inflation Poses Risk to Global Economy
Wall Street Journal
Economy. IMF Chief Warns That Low Inflation Poses Risk to Global Economy. Lagarde's Comments Highlight Concern That Euro Zone Might Be Heading Toward Deflation.
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British Politics and Policy at LSE – Five minutes with Ha-Joon ...

British Politics and Policy at LSE – Five minutes with Ha-Joon ... | Behaviour | Scoop.it
Unless the general public is informed by basic economic theory and by key economic facts, they're going to make wrong decisions. Members of the .... Yes, that's right. Of course it would be silly to deny that we at least try to be rational.
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Ha-Joon Chang : How to 'Use' Economics - Huffington Post UK

Ha-Joon Chang : How to 'Use' Economics - Huffington Post UK | Behaviour | Scoop.it
Ha-Joon Chang : How to 'Use' Economics
Huffington Post UK
Economics is a political argument.
Peter Lawlor's insight:

Notice his naive and utterly unschooled notion of "science". When he argues, no not argues, states that economics is not and can never be a science, he carries the man in the street idea that science leads to objective truth. Very naive, wholly unthought out. I've actually met this guy and liked him but he knows no epistemology. His analysis is (because of that) worthless.

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Can Rational Arguments Actually Change People's Minds? - Lifehacker Australia

Can Rational Arguments Actually Change People's Minds? - Lifehacker Australia | Behaviour | Scoop.it
Can Rational Arguments Actually Change People's Minds?
Lifehacker Australia
My job is based on rational inquiry, yet the picture of human rationality painted by our profession can seem pretty bleak.
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[1405.5860] Asymmetry of Risk and Value of Information

Abstract: The von Neumann and Morgenstern theory postulates that rational choice under uncertainty is equivalent to maximization of expected utility (EU).
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Angry Economics Students Are Naive - And Mostly Right

Angry Economics Students Are Naive - And Mostly Right | Behaviour | Scoop.it
Economist John Kay looks at current economics students protests about economics teaching and explains why they have a point.
Peter Lawlor's insight:

I include this only because it's an illustration of how not to think about economics. Back in the Forsyth and Kay days of "North Sea Oil and Deindustrialisation" (My slightly incorrect memory of the seminal paper written for the IFS in about 1981), Key seemed to be a serious theorist. It wasn't to be. 

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Is There a Development Gap in Rationality? | Bo...

Is There a Development Gap in Rationality? | Bo... | Behaviour | Scoop.it
We report an experimental test of the four touchstones of rationality in choice under risk – utility maximization, stochastic dominance, expected-utility maximization and small-stakes risk neutrality – with students from one of the best...
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Noahpinion: Entrepreneurship and the pricing of uncertainty

Noahpinion: Entrepreneurship and the pricing of uncertainty | Behaviour | Scoop.it
Examining the pricing of uncertainty when it comes to working for a start up. http://t.co/Z98ULyX1Sy @Noahpinion
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Richard Feynman: The Character of Physical Law - Pt. 6. Probability and uncertainty

The Messenger Lectures are a prestigious series of talks given by leading scholars and public figures at Cornell University. They were founded in 1924 by a g...
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The Piketty phenomenon: big picture economics | Editorial ...

The Piketty phenomenon: big picture economics | Editorial ... | Behaviour | Scoop.it
Editorial: When the maelstrom surrounding Capital in the Twenty-First Century dies down, its legacy may be to give economics back its sense of proportion.
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