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Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past

Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it

In Issac Asimov's classic science fiction saga Foundation, mathematics professor Hari Seldon predicts the future using what he calls psychohistory.

Drawing on mathematical models that describe what happened in the past, he anticipates what will happen next, including the fall of the Galactic Empire.

That may seem like fanciful stuff. But Peter Turchin is turning himself into a real-life Hari Seldon — and he’s not alone.

Turchin — a professor at the University of Connecticut — is the driving force behind a field called “cliodynamics,” where scientists and mathematicians analyze history in the hopes of finding patterns they can then use to predict the future. It’s named after Clio, the Greek muse of history.

These academics have the same goals as other historians — “We start with questions that historians have asked for all of history,” Turchin says. “For example: Why do civilizations collapse?” — but they seek to answer these questions quite differently. They use math rather than mere language, and according to Turchin, the prognosis isn’t that far removed from the empire-crushing predictions laid down by Hari Seldon in the Foundation saga. Unless something changes, he says, we’re due for a wave of widespread violence in about 2020, including riots and terrorism.


Via Wildcat2030, Szabolcs Kósa
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Christophe CESETTI's curator insight, April 11, 2013 2:34 AM

it's said...but not expected "Unless something changes, we’re due for a wave of widespread violence in about 2020, including riots and terrorism"

Asset Management Engineering
Not the financial services kind - more the physics kind!
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Asset managers crave location data

Asset managers crave location data | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it
Visually seeing and tracking your company's assets can help save money, time and trouble.
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The Rise of the Digital Bank

The Rise of the Digital Bank | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it

As European consumers move online, retail banks will have to follow. The problem is that most banks aren’t ready. 

 

Neither customers nor digital upstarts are likely to wait for retail banks to catch up. Recent analysis shows that over the next five years, more than two-thirds of banking customers in Europe are likely to be “self-directed” and highly adapted to the online world. In fact, these same consumers already take great advantage of digital technologies in other industries—booking flights and holidays, buying books and music, and increasingly shopping for groceries and other goods via digital channels. Once a credible digital-banking proposition exists, customer adoption will be breathtakingly fast and digital laggards will be left exposed.

 


Via Kenneth Mikkelsen
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Kenneth Mikkelsen's curator insight, September 17, 5:47 PM

Across Europe, retail banks have digitized only 20 to 40 percent of their processes; 90 percent of European banks invest less than 0.5 percent of their total spending on digital. As a result, most have relatively shallow digital offerings focused on enabling basic customer transactions.

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IBM Unleases the Watson Discovery Advisor

IBM Unleases the Watson Discovery Advisor | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it
 Artificial Intelligence IBM has announced IBM Watson Discovery Advisor, an integrated package of artificial intelligence technologies that will be delivered as a cloud service. Discovery Advisor is...

Via Spaceweaver
Gary Bamford's insight:

Now it just needs a Holmes to solve the problem!

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How Computer Technology Will Transform Schools Of The Future

How Computer Technology Will Transform Schools Of The Future | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it

Nearly every other industry has been changed beyond recognition by the invention of computers. Why not education, arguably one of the industries with the most to gain?


The answer is probably some combination of rank incompetence, institutional conservatism, and perverse incentives.


Via Nik Peachey
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Allan Tsuda's curator insight, August 26, 5:17 PM

It's happening faster than a lot of people realize. Interested in seeing "results" in student learning growth between the "have and have not" countries. Hopefully the gap will close.

Sieg Holle's curator insight, August 29, 9:21 AM

Moving toward the age of "learning" abundance despite the opposition inevitable.....

Aris P. Louvris's curator insight, August 30, 4:46 AM

Μία αρκετά τεχνολογική προσέγγιση που αξίζει να διαβαστεί

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Sir Richard Leese: _FreebeeMCR is helping Manchester become a world-leading digital city

Sir Richard Leese: _FreebeeMCR is helping Manchester become a world-leading digital city | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it
Sir Richard Leese explains how Manchester's digital strategy is taking the city into the future
Gary Bamford's insight:

Don't forget if you come 'up-North' your fix is free ;)

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Hadoop and Big Data: 101

Hadoop and Big Data: 101 | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it
What is Hadoop and how might it fit in your organisation?
Gary Bamford's insight:

With thanks to @deveshsinha for the link.

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The 'Internet Of Things' Will Soon Be A Truly Huge Market, Dwarfing All Other ... - Business Insider

The 'Internet Of Things' Will Soon Be A Truly Huge Market, Dwarfing All Other ... - Business Insider | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it
The 'Internet Of Things' Will Soon Be A Truly Huge Market, Dwarfing All Other ...
Business Insider
That's roughly equal to the number of smartphones, smart TVs, tablets, wearable computers, and PCs combined.

Via Spaceweaver
Gary Bamford's insight:

A graph of the future ....

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Future of Rail – Driverless high-speed trains and maintenance drones

Future of Rail – Driverless high-speed trains and maintenance drones | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it
More driverless trains and roaming maintenance drones are two trends identified in a new report looking at the future of rail travel. The Future of Rail 2050, which has been authored…

Via howard parkinson
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HP initiates computer revolution with machine that calculates 640TBs of data in one billionth of a second - Electronic Products

HP initiates computer revolution with machine that calculates 640TBs of data in one billionth of a second - Electronic Products | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it

Via Spaceweaver
Gary Bamford's insight:

"The Machine" to help "The Man" - 160 petabytes in 250 nanoseconds that should keep him busy for a while ;)

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The Promise of a New Internet

The Promise of a New Internet | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it
It's not too late to rebuild this thing for the people. 

 

People tend to talk about the Internet the way they talk about democracy—optimistically, and in terms that describe how it ought to be rather than how it actually is. 

This idealism is what buoys much of the network neutrality debate, and yet many of what are considered to be the core issues at stake—like payment for tiered access, for instance—have already been decided. For years, Internet advocates have been asking what regulatory measures might help save the open, innovation-friendly Internet.


Via John Lasschuit ®™, Pascale Mousset
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John Lasschuit ®™'s curator insight, June 12, 10:54 AM

Adrienne Lafrance at the Atlantic about #mesh #infrastructures.

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Out in the Open: The Little-Known Open Source OS That Rules the Internet of Things

Out in the Open: The Little-Known Open Source OS That Rules the Internet of Things | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it
You can connect almost anything to a computer network. Light bulbs. Thermostats. Coffee makers. Even badgers. Yes, badgers.

Via Spaceweaver
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The world after Big Data: What the digital revolution means for us

The world after Big Data: What the digital revolution means for us | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it

Never before were politicians, business leaders, and scientists more urgently needed to master the challenges ahead of us. We are in the middle of a third industrial revolution. While we see the symptoms, such as the financial and economic crisis, cybercrime and cyberwar, we haven't understood the implications well. But at the end of this socio-economic transformation, we will live in a digital society. This comes with breath-taking opportunities and challenges, as they occur only every 100 years.

 

http://futurict.blogspot.mx/2014/05/the-world-after-big-data-what-digital.html

 

See also What's the Next Big Thing after Big Data? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5Y76UB080M&list=UUYrlsSzinJN42rKmFlOOYxA


Via Complexity Digest
Gary Bamford's insight:

Come on, keep up!

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Rick Frank's curator insight, May 30, 6:38 AM

This is a bit idealistic but I like the thought process behind it.

James Thomas's curator insight, June 2, 7:27 PM

Two issues with big data in M&E: (1) ethical data use, and (2) monitoring without having to burden someone with more data collection (i.e., using available data).

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Big data: the driver for innovation in databases

Gary Bamford's insight:

How do you know when you've got 'Big Data' on your hands?

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Code of practice “essential” for learning analytics

Code of practice “essential” for learning analytics | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it

Via Ana Cristina Pratas
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14 tech predictions for our world in 2020

14 tech predictions for our world in 2020 | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it
We asked our 2015 intake of Technology Pioneers for their views on how technology will change the world. From printable organs to the “internet of everywhere”, here are their predictions for our near-term future. The ‘humanized’ internet The evolution of modern connectivity is often summarized as: the internet – the world wide web – mobile […]
Gary Bamford's insight:

Services everywhere .....

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The Internet of Things: A Trillion Dollar Market

The Internet of Things: A Trillion Dollar Market | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it
The Internet of Things is a new paradigm that will revolutionise the world of computers, offering widespread automation and connectivity of devices, systems and services, including the emergence of Smart Grids.

Via Spaceweaver
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Allen Taylor's curator insight, August 30, 11:04 PM

The Internet of Things is already hear, enabling you to monitor and control a host of devices with your smart phone. Some of the applications available so far seem pretty trivial, however.

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Systems Thinking and the Future of Cities

Systems Thinking and the Future of Cities | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it

The idea that nothing exists in isolation−but only as part of a system−has long been embedded in folklore, religious scriptures, and common sense. Yet, systems dynamics as a science has yet to transform the way we conduct the public business. This article first briefly explores the question of why advances in systems theory have failed to transform public policy. The second part describes the ways in which our understanding of systems is growing−not so much from theorizing, but from practical applications in agriculture, building design, and medical science. The third part focuses on whether and how that knowledge and systems science can be deployed to improve urban governance in the face of rapid climate destabilization so that sustainability becomes the norm, not the occasional success story.


Via Erika Harrison, Complexity Digest
Gary Bamford's insight:

Non-linear futures.

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Josie Gibson's curator insight, September 14, 4:11 PM

Timely focus on the critical role of thinking systemically as a leader...

Jason Leong's curator insight, September 29, 1:15 AM

"Despite the inherent logic of systems thinking, governments, corporations, foundations, universities, and non-profit organizations still work mostly by breaking issues and problems into their separate parts and dealing with each in isolation. Separate agencies, departments, and organizations specialize in energy, land, food, air, water, wildlife, economy, finance, building regulations, urban policy, technology, health, and transportation−as if each were unrelated to the others. So, one agency pushes hard to grow the economy while another is charged to clean up the resulting mess and so forth, which is to say that the right hand and left hand seldom knows−or cares−what the other is doing. The results are often counter-productive, overly expensive, risky, sometimes disastrous, and most always ironic."

Miklos Szilagyi's curator insight, September 29, 1:57 AM

Very comprehensive and interesting.... and not only about the cities... Good...

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Laying the foundation of a smart city | Intelligent Utility

Laying the foundation of a smart city | Intelligent Utility | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it
The term “smart city,” like the term “smart grid,” is amorphous. It grows. It changes. It engulfs other ideas through a type of groupthink osmosis.

Via Santosh R. Dubey
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The End of the Internet?

The End of the Internet? | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it

The World Wide Web celebrated its 25th birthday recently. Today the global network serves almost 3 billion people, and hundreds of thousands more join each day. If the Internet were a country, its economy would be among the five largest in the world.

 

Yet all of this growth and increasing connectedness, which can seem both effortless and unstoppable, is now creating enormous friction, as yet largely invisible to the average surfer. It might not remain that way for much longer.

 

Fierce and rising geopolitical conflict over control of the global network threatens to create a balkanized system - what some technorati, including Google’s executive chairman, Eric Schmidt, have called “the splinternet.”


Via Kenneth Mikkelsen
Gary Bamford's insight:

Oh well - it was good while it lasted!

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Karen Kerski's curator insight, August 8, 7:21 AM

We are still creating this new world of shopping, sharing and innovating. I don't see an end - it is still in its infancy.

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Intel, Samsung create Internet of Things group - CNET

Intel, Samsung create Internet of Things group - CNET | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it
A handful of tech giants join forces to create the Open Interconnect Consortium after a similar group was created under the Linux Foundation.

Via Santosh R. Dubey
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Do You Have A Data Strategy? - Forbes

Do You Have A Data Strategy? - Forbes | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it
Do You Have A Data Strategy?
Forbes
Which is why the right data management strategy is so important: it's not about gathering a huge amount of useless information, and much less is it about alienating the client through NSA-style practices.

Via Stuart Goode
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Stuart Goode's curator insight, June 18, 1:20 AM

Do you only collect the minimum data required?

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Did a 19-Year-Old Really Just Solve One of Earth’s Biggest Environmental Problems?

Did a 19-Year-Old Really Just Solve One of Earth’s Biggest Environmental Problems? | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it
Illustration courtesy: Boyan Slat / The Ocean Cleanup “Once there was the Stone Age, then the Bronze Age, and now we are in the middle of the Plastic Age.” So begins 19-year-old Boyan Slat’s TEDx Talk on clearing plastic...

Via M. Edward (Ed) Borasky
Gary Bamford's insight:

How to clean an ocean.

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European taxi protest: Transport tech upheaval

European taxi protest: Transport tech upheaval | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it
Roads snarled in London, Paris and several other major European cities Wednesday as taxi drivers and train workers protested new technology they say endangers passengers and gives upstart enterprises an unfair advantage.
Gary Bamford's insight:

Upstart enterprises - now they sound interesting!

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Mastering the Internet of Everything

Mastering the Internet of Everything | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it

Via Ana Cristina Pratas
Gary Bamford's insight:

New 'Masters of the Universe' - apply here ;)

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Mike Collins's curator insight, June 5, 4:08 AM

Great post from @Hjarche focusing on the journey required and the digital literacies we'll need to develop to master the world wide web to make of the opportunities and potential

niftyjock's curator insight, June 5, 5:11 PM

I can't even master the internet of me

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People Management: data and analytics will change it forever

People Management: data and analytics will change it forever | Asset Management Engineering | Scoop.it
Companies are nothing without the right people. People with the right skills and talent make all the difference and will give companies the competitive edge they need to succeed today and in the

Via HR Trend Institute
Gary Bamford's insight:

Let's hope these 'algorithms' are bug free! Put your hand up if you believe that ;) 

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