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Magpie's Asymmetric Warfare: Moving to Oz? (IX)

Amanda Pregl (25yo), a young German national visiting Sydney on a student visa, became this week a bit of an example of what may be awaiting thousands of foreign visitors or migrants to Australia.

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UDADISI: China puzzles

Keith Bradsher writes in the NYT:

 . . . [A]mong people in their early 20s, those with a college degree were four times as likely to be unemployed as those with only an elementary school education. 

How this could be good?

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Chinese Sex Video Extortion Scam Leads To 10 More Officials Being Fired

Chinese Sex Video Extortion Scam Leads To 10 More Officials Being Fired | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it
Local developers had been getting favors by filming government officials with young mistresses.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Yen Set for 11th Weekly Drop; Japan Records Largest Trade Deficit in History

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Yen Set for 11th Weekly Drop; Japan Records Largest Trade Deficit in History | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

Without a doubt, currency wars have ramped up to a new high. It's hard to say when or where this stops, but those who thought Shinzo Abe was bluffing, need think again.  However, and as I have said repeatedly, a weaker yen will not do Japan any good.

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China's advanced AWACS aircraft to hunt US F-22

China's advanced AWACS aircraft to hunt US F-22 | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

To counter the F-22 stealth fighter in a potential air war against
the United States, China is developing third-generation early
warning aircraft, according to our sister paper Want Daily.  Reports published by the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based

thinktank, have noted that the phased array radar technology of the
KJ-2000 and KJ-200 AWACS systems of the PLA Air Force is already
one full generation ahead of the E-3C and E-2C early warning
aircraft of the US.

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In Indian inflation is always and everywhere a rainy phenomenon

In Indian inflation is always and everywhere a rainy phenomenon | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it
Take a look at this “Phillips” curve for India (its not really a real Phillips curve – as it is the relationship between annual real GDP growth and inflation): Do you notice somet...
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Stratfor: China’s Expanding Maritime Claims

This is really good stuff and what we see as the biggest swan risk of 2013 “China is using its presence to make a case in any future international mediation that possession is nine- tenths of...
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China Economic Paradigm Nearing End Game « naked capitalism

China Economic Paradigm Nearing End Game « naked capitalism | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

Skeptics of China’s economic model have looked like hopeless gloomsters for years. Even though they are correct when they point out negatives, such as the fact that no large economy has ever had 50% of GDP coming from investments and exports for a sustained basis or has managed the transition from being export driven to consumption driven gracefully (the US’s and Japan’s deflations are prime examples) seemed irrelevant as China was able to maintain attractive growth rates in the wake of the financial crisis by providing massive stimulus (aka more investment

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China stimulus: End of 2012 saw lots of government investment spending.

China stimulus: End of 2012 saw lots of government investment spending. | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it
Was China's bear-defying strong fourth quarter a sign that they've successfully "rebalanced" their economy toward growth oriented toward domestic consumers and away from heavy investment spending? Nope.
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Did China Just Start Its Long Term Decline? | Balding's World

Think a declining and again population doesn’t matter?  Just ask Japan how much it matters.

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5 New Reasons China And Japan May Really Go To War Over Disputed Islands

5 New Reasons China And Japan May Really Go To War Over Disputed Islands | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it
Actions behind all the talk.
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Renminbi goes mainstream

Last year, reports SWIFT, the worldwide bank-owned payment system, the
renminbi moved from 20th spot in the rankings of the world’s most-used
currencies to 14th in August, ahead of the Danish kroner but behind the
Russian ruble. The No. 1 position is held by the euro, with the U.S.
dollar at No. 2. Canada’s loonie ranks sixth.By November, the renminbi
(RMB) had slipped to 16th spot. But that was more a reflection of the
crisis in Europe slowing demand for Chinese exports than a crisis in
the currency.

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The rewards of royalty

The rewards of royalty | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it
EVEN now, when India is desperate to attract capital to fund its big balance-of-payments gap, the red carpet it rolls out is a little dusty. A year after rules were...
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Bruegel - The Brussels-based think tank | blog > Yen at war

Bruegel - The Brussels-based think tank | blog > Yen at war | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

Talks about currency wars have resurged since the recently elected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared war on deflation, using the heavy armament of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing. His moves have given rise to much controversy; see eg the recent Bruegel blog review and a video interview with Professor Mitsuhiro Fukaofrom Keio University.

As a result, the yen has depreciated sharply recent weeks. But how do the current yen exchange rates look like in a historical perspective?

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Phat Dragon sees a huge pick-up in Chinese railway construction | | MacroBusiness

Phat Dragon sees a huge pick-up in Chinese railway construction | | MacroBusiness | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

Phat Dragon noted with great interest a Caixin report that cited a MOR official indicating that it plans to pursue a 5,400km expansion of the rail network in 2013. If that raw number means nothing to you, tweet your local news provider and ask why no genuine context is ever provided for ‘big number’ headlines.

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Cassandra Does Tokyo: Olympus & TeamJapan (as Explained By S. Suzuki)

Cassandra Does Tokyo: Olympus & TeamJapan (as Explained By S. Suzuki) | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

Shinichi Suzuki's Nurtured by Love, The Classic Approach to Talent Education is an illuminating account of his philosophy regarding life, music, and learning. For those who do not know of Mr Suzuki, he is the father of a global musical instruction movement which posits that everyone has the aptitude  and is capable of reaching a decent level of musicianship with consistent effort and  practice. Teaching begins...

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The growth effects of democratisation: New evidence | vox

The growth effects of democratisation: New evidence | vox | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

The Arab world is undergoing a major political transition. The final outcomes of the changes are far from certain. Nevertheless, there have been and will continue to be economic consequences from the moves towards democracy. This column looks at 90 attempts at transition and finds that countries with rapid transitions, irrespective of whether they are successful or failed, experience swift recoveries and a long-run growth dividend of about one percentage point relative to pre-transition growth levels.

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Mortgage Choice: buying cheaper than renting, not | | MacroBusiness

Mortgage Choice: buying cheaper than renting, not | | MacroBusiness | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

There is a lot that is wrong with Mortgage Choice’s analysis. First, it has chosen to compare the average first home buyer (FHB) loan size against rental payments, and conveniently chosen to ignore the buyer’s deposit, which represents a true opportunity cost. The below table, which adds to Mortgage Choice’s data, illustrates this point:

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What Really Goes On In China | Zero Hedge

What Really Goes On In China | Zero Hedge | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it
China scares us because it looks like a bubble economy. Understanding these kinds of bubbles is important because they represent a situation in which standard valuation methodologies may fail. Just as financial stocks gave a false signal of cheapness before the GFC because the credit bubble pushed their earnings well above sustainable levels and masked the risks they were taking, so some valuation models may fail in the face of the credit, real estate, and general fixed asset investment boom in China, since it has gone on long enough to warp the models' estimation of what "normal" is.
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GMO: China's "Bubble Economy" is Riskier than it Appears - PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM

GMO: China's "Bubble Economy" is Riskier than it Appears - PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

Edward Chancellor of GMO always does very nice work. His latest on China and the risks to the credit system are no exception.

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Magpie's Asymmetric Warfare: Harassing Steve Keen.

My readers, I suppose, already know that the University of Western Sydney decided that his most prominent academic, Steve Keen and economics in general were not wanted anymore. This seems short-sighted, but that's their prerogative.

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Here's Why The Yen Is Soaring, And People Think That The Bank Of Japan's Big Move Could Be Another Big Flop

Here's Why The Yen Is Soaring, And People Think That The Bank Of Japan's Big Move Could Be Another Big Flop | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it
Not as aggressive as the headlines appear.
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Prakash Loungani: House Prices in Hong Kong

Prakash Loungani: House Prices in Hong Kong | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it
From the latest IMF's report on Hong Kong's economy: 
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Philip Pilkington: The Japanese Stimulus – Will It Work? « naked capitalism

Philip Pilkington: The Japanese Stimulus – Will It Work? « naked capitalism | Asian Finance & Economy | Scoop.it

So, what is actually going on with Japan? In order to understand this better we need to look at the data with respect to the last stimulus to see what it did and what it didn’t do, and try to figure out why. The first graph below is Japan’s annual GDP growth rate plotted together with annual growth rates of private sector final consumption – that is, by households and businesses – and government sector final consumption. This, I think, is the key graph to understanding the nature of the so-called Japanese disease.

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