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The countries most at risk for a coup in 2013

The countries most at risk for a coup in 2013 | AP Human Geography Finnegan | Scoop.it

"The map [above] sorts the countries of the world into three groups based on their relative coup risk for 2013: highest (red), moderate (orange), and lowest (beige)."


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Seth Dixon's curator insight, January 25, 2013 10:11 AM

While this is not predicting a coup in any of these places, this map is a visualization of data that was used to assess the factors that would make a coup likely (to see an alternate map, here is the Washington Post's review of the same data that mapped the 30 countries most likely to have a coup). 


Questions to Ponder: What factors do you think would be important in compilling data of this nature?  What makes a country susceptible to this type of governmental overthrow?  What creates governmental stability? 


Tags: political, conflict, unit 4 political, governance, Africa.

wereldvak's curator insight, January 26, 2013 5:28 AM

Factoren die meespelen zijn hieronder genoemd.

 

The algorithm for successful coups uses just four risk factors, one of which is really just an adjustment to the intercept.

Infant mortality rate (relative to annual global median, logged): higher risk in countries with higher rates.Degree of democracy (Polity score, quadratic): higher risk for countries in the mid-range of the 21-point scale.Recent coup activity (yes or no): higher risk if any activity in the past five years.Post-Cold War period: lower risk since 1989.

The algorithm for any coup attempts, successful or failed, uses the following ten risk factors, including all four of the ones used to forecast successful coups.

Infant mortality rate (relative to annual global median, logged): higher risk in countries with higher rates.Recent coup activity (count of past five years with any, plus one and logged): higher risk with more activity.Post-Cold War period: lower risk since 1989.Popular uprisings in region (count of countries with any, plus one and logged): higher risk with more of them.Insurgencies in region (count of countries with any, plus one and logged): higher risk with more of them.Economic growth (year-to-year change in GDP per capita): higher risk with slower growth.Regime durability (time since last abrupt change in Polity score, plus one and logged): lower risk with longer time.Ongoing insurgency (yes or no): higher risk if yes.Ongoing civil resistance campaign (yes or no): higher risk if yes.Signatory to 1st Optional Protocol of the UN’s International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (yes or no): lower risk if yes.

from:http://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2012/01/30/assessing-coup-risk-in-2012/ ;
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The Conflict in Syria

The Conflict in Syria | AP Human Geography Finnegan | Scoop.it

Brown University's Choices Program has many excellent resources for social studies teachers including "Teaching with the News."  Many teachers are seeing the importance of Syria, but might lack the regional expertise to put it in context or to the time to link it with the curriculum.  If that is the case (and even if it is not), this is the perfect place to find lesson plans on the ongoing Syrian conflict. 

 

Tags: political, MiddleEast, conflict, war.


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Somalia: A failed state is back from the dead

Somalia: A failed state is back from the dead | AP Human Geography Finnegan | Scoop.it
Eighteen months ago, central Mogadishu was like an African Stalingrad.

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Cam E's curator insight, March 18, 2014 12:57 PM

Somalia has been the go-to criticism example for anarchy and lawlessness in my generation, but with the times our metaphors must also change. I'm interesting in seeing how Somalia gains control after a time of such factionalism.

Nathan Chasse's curator insight, March 25, 2014 1:12 PM

This article describes the stabilizing political situation in Somalia. The country was long without a central government and the instability made Somalia a haven for Islamic extremists and piracy. In 2012, Somalia held successful elections and the new government, located in the Puntland region, has been taking territory from Al Shabaab and reducing piracy. The increasing stability could improve Somalia's economy as interest in its oil could see significant foreign investment into the former "failed state."

Bob Beaven's curator insight, March 26, 2:58 PM

Somalia, or as we referred to it last class "a country that is not really a country".  Somalia is famous for being a fractured, failing state.  The American war film, "Black Hawk Down" is set in Mogadishu and shows the country even in the 1990s fracturing apart under the influence of various warlords.  The movie was based on an actual event that occurred in the early nineties, in which the US tried to oust a large scale crime boss, supposedly to stabilize the nation, however this plan failed, as the nation continued to be fractured.  This article claims that there is progress being made in the country (Circa 2013) as the pro-"government" forces and a coalition for African security pushed back a terrorist group out of the capital and back to their stronghold in the country.  During 2012, the terrorist group lost its last stronghold.  However, Somalia still has a great deal of challenges facing it.  Al Shabbab is not fully eliminated, just weakened.  The pirates still exist on the Somalia coast, and trying to recreate a country out of something that hasn't existed as one for decades will be difficult.  However, I am pulling for the nation to succeed, the people in the region need stability.

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Afghan Troops Get a Lesson in American Cultural Ignorance

Afghan Troops Get a Lesson in American Cultural Ignorance | AP Human Geography Finnegan | Scoop.it
Afghan troops are told that insulting behavior by Americans is an oversight, not a slight.

 

Cross-cultural interactions can be beautiful when immersed into a new cultural setting and the visitor learns to appreciate it.  Unfortunately, it can often lead to clumsy missteps that are born out of ignorance of a new guiding set of cultural norms.  Some missteps can lead to great laughter while others can be gravely insulting.  The United States military seeks to train U.S. soldiers about Afghan customs, but they are trying a new tactic as well to minimize these issues.  The U.S. military has prepared a cultural guide to teach the Afghan soldier that they work with about the curious customs that are part of social interaction in the United States but not considered offensive. 

 

Tags: culture, war, unit 3 culture, conflict.


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Charles Matley's comment, October 1, 2012 11:31 AM
Shows that the United States could use a higher quality education.
Rich's comment, October 3, 2012 1:28 PM
We could have used an idea like this quite a long time ago. The cultural bridges have already been burnt to the ground.
Kendra King's curator insight, February 27, 7:18 PM

I think the comparison to Vietnam at the start of the article shows just how little our culture learned last time. During the Kennedy administration, troops were given "guides" to inform them about the area as the article suggests. However, this "hearts and minds" strategy was a huge failure. So, what does the United States do? Send the army to a forghien country again  with "recommended readings" and superfine "video games." As a result, some are so offended they are killing American fighters. While I might think this a bit extreme, the US also came in the country in an welcomed manner to begin with. Furthermore, the west (overall) consistently looks down upon Middle East culture. Belittling a culture will eventually anger the people. It is common sense that is consistently overlooked. 

 

Something clearly needs to be done and while I think this strategy might not have immediate short term results, the military should continue on with the plan regardless. Currently, the tensions in the country are incredibly high. Clearly, what ever efforts the US put towards working with Afghanistan citizens came of as insincere. As such, people might just look at American's new attempt to work with them as a disingenuous effort. Furthermore, they might think calling it "ignorance," is just excusing Americans' actions. In the long term though, if done correctly, soldier's might actually learn to be more empathetic of the culture and more genuine so that the Afagni's might actually realize it all is just a "big misunderstanding" (there is a significant culture gap that will take time to learn) and not just laziness on the part of American's.