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The countries most at risk for a coup in 2013

The countries most at risk for a coup in 2013 | AP Human Geography Finnegan | Scoop.it

"The map [above] sorts the countries of the world into three groups based on their relative coup risk for 2013: highest (red), moderate (orange), and lowest (beige)."


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Seth Dixon's curator insight, January 25, 2013 7:11 AM

While this is not predicting a coup in any of these places, this map is a visualization of data that was used to assess the factors that would make a coup likely (to see an alternate map, here is the Washington Post's review of the same data that mapped the 30 countries most likely to have a coup). 


Questions to Ponder: What factors do you think would be important in compilling data of this nature?  What makes a country susceptible to this type of governmental overthrow?  What creates governmental stability? 


Tags: political, conflict, unit 4 political, governance, Africa.

wereldvak's curator insight, January 26, 2013 2:28 AM

Factoren die meespelen zijn hieronder genoemd.

 

The algorithm for successful coups uses just four risk factors, one of which is really just an adjustment to the intercept.

Infant mortality rate (relative to annual global median, logged): higher risk in countries with higher rates.Degree of democracy (Polity score, quadratic): higher risk for countries in the mid-range of the 21-point scale.Recent coup activity (yes or no): higher risk if any activity in the past five years.Post-Cold War period: lower risk since 1989.

The algorithm for any coup attempts, successful or failed, uses the following ten risk factors, including all four of the ones used to forecast successful coups.

Infant mortality rate (relative to annual global median, logged): higher risk in countries with higher rates.Recent coup activity (count of past five years with any, plus one and logged): higher risk with more activity.Post-Cold War period: lower risk since 1989.Popular uprisings in region (count of countries with any, plus one and logged): higher risk with more of them.Insurgencies in region (count of countries with any, plus one and logged): higher risk with more of them.Economic growth (year-to-year change in GDP per capita): higher risk with slower growth.Regime durability (time since last abrupt change in Polity score, plus one and logged): lower risk with longer time.Ongoing insurgency (yes or no): higher risk if yes.Ongoing civil resistance campaign (yes or no): higher risk if yes.Signatory to 1st Optional Protocol of the UN’s International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (yes or no): lower risk if yes.

from:http://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2012/01/30/assessing-coup-risk-in-2012/ ;
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The Conflict in Syria

The Conflict in Syria | AP Human Geography Finnegan | Scoop.it

Brown University's Choices Program has many excellent resources for social studies teachers including "Teaching with the News."  Many teachers are seeing the importance of Syria, but might lack the regional expertise to put it in context or to the time to link it with the curriculum.  If that is the case (and even if it is not), this is the perfect place to find lesson plans on the ongoing Syrian conflict. 

 

Tags: political, MiddleEast, conflict, war.


Via Seth Dixon
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Somalia: A failed state is back from the dead

Somalia: A failed state is back from the dead | AP Human Geography Finnegan | Scoop.it
Eighteen months ago, central Mogadishu was like an African Stalingrad.

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Jerod Garland's curator insight, October 2, 2013 11:06 AM

Many other countries complain about the US getting into things that aren't our business, but what I've noticed, if we don't intervene, it does  become our problem because of all the ties we have around the world. One place fights another because they think something isn't going their way. But if one place goes down, there is other places that rely on the place that just fell. Then it becomes a butterfly effect and more people are affected than intended.

Cam E's curator insight, March 18, 9:57 AM

Somalia has been the go-to criticism example for anarchy and lawlessness in my generation, but with the times our metaphors must also change. I'm interesting in seeing how Somalia gains control after a time of such factionalism.

Nathan Chasse's curator insight, March 25, 10:12 AM

This article describes the stabilizing political situation in Somalia. The country was long without a central government and the instability made Somalia a haven for Islamic extremists and piracy. In 2012, Somalia held successful elections and the new government, located in the Puntland region, has been taking territory from Al Shabaab and reducing piracy. The increasing stability could improve Somalia's economy as interest in its oil could see significant foreign investment into the former "failed state."

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Afghan Troops Get a Lesson in American Cultural Ignorance

Afghan Troops Get a Lesson in American Cultural Ignorance | AP Human Geography Finnegan | Scoop.it
Afghan troops are told that insulting behavior by Americans is an oversight, not a slight.

 

Cross-cultural interactions can be beautiful when immersed into a new cultural setting and the visitor learns to appreciate it.  Unfortunately, it can often lead to clumsy missteps that are born out of ignorance of a new guiding set of cultural norms.  Some missteps can lead to great laughter while others can be gravely insulting.  The United States military seeks to train U.S. soldiers about Afghan customs, but they are trying a new tactic as well to minimize these issues.  The U.S. military has prepared a cultural guide to teach the Afghan soldier that they work with about the curious customs that are part of social interaction in the United States but not considered offensive. 

 

Tags: culture, war, unit 3 culture, conflict.


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Charles Matley's comment, October 1, 2012 8:31 AM
Shows that the United States could use a higher quality education.
Rich's comment, October 3, 2012 10:28 AM
We could have used an idea like this quite a long time ago. The cultural bridges have already been burnt to the ground.