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Empirical Studies of Conflict

Empirical Studies of Conflict | Anomalies | Scoop.it

 

 

 

 

 


Via M. Edward (Ed) Borasky
Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

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The Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC) is a new resource for identifying, then analyzing conflict, insurgency or civil war data. It should be helpful for geopolitical risk assessment including changing trends in global political violence.

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Anomalies
Outliers, aberrations, fat tails, trouble at the mill and maybe something good once in awhile
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Highway Trust Fund Ticker | U.S. Department of Transportation

Highway Trust Fund Ticker | U.S. Department of Transportation | Anomalies | Scoop.it
Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

Based on current spending and revenue trends, the U.S. Department of Transportation estimates that the Highway Trust Fund will run out of money to maintain and repair surface roadways before the end of the fiscal year (in mid October 2014). Anticipation of a deficit scenario is already impacting transportation planning at the state level, including Arkansas and Georgia.

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Old tails: a crude power law fit on ebook sales

Old tails: a crude power law fit on ebook sales | Anomalies | Scoop.it

We use R to take a very brief look at the distribution of e-book sales on Amazon.com.

Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

The chart is log-log. It is a plot of daily e-book sales versus Kindle e-book rank for Amazon.com's top 50,000. I don't see much of a tail.

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2048 : comment gagner à tous les coups

2048 : comment gagner à tous les coups | Anomalies | Scoop.it

2048 is a mini-game that is experiencing a strong passion.  Addictive but also annoying, this game is oddly compelling.


Via Dominique Rivière
Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

I never like games, only Tetris, Scrabble, Liar's Poker and MS Windows solitaire, yet I like this! How unusual, maybe even anomalous....

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A Long Tail of Whales: Half of Mobile Games Money Comes From 0.15 % of Players

A Long Tail of Whales: Half of Mobile Games Money Comes From 0.15 % of Players | Anomalies | Scoop.it

"One player spent about $10,000 per month on in-app purchases. The company... assigned an employee to cater just to that whale, to ensure that she was always satisfied with the game."

Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

This sort of extreme revenue concentration indicates that mobile gaming remains speculative, as a business AND as an investment.

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Fed: It’s Not Clear Exactly How Fed Bond Buying Works

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York president says some key aspects of how the central bank’s bond-buying stimulus effort works remain mysterious.
Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

The current policy of years of prolonged bond-buying is unprecedented for central bankers.  

'Mr. Dudley also said that when it comes time to unwind the Fed’s easy-money stance, uncertainty is a major issue facing central bankers.  “There could be unintended consequences” about moving to a more normalized state of monetary policy..."'


Reassuring, no? I have a difficult time believing this was the Fed's prefered course of action. They are not foolish, nor short-sighted. Other than Alan Greenspan, the Fed Board of Governors have few business or political ties, e.g. Ben Bernanke was an economics professor in North Carolina for his entire career. Former president Bush made a good choice with Bernanke.

 

I wish all the best to Janet Yellen! She is highly qualified. I don't think assumptions should be made, that she is "dovish". We'll see.

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Pipeline Safety Tracker

Pipeline Safety Tracker | Anomalies | Scoop.it
Every year the nations oil and natural gas pipelines suffer hundreds of ruptures and spills. We map major pipeline accidents from 1986 to the present.
Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

Pipeline technology at scale was developed 50+ years ago. Ruptures due to material weld equipment failure decreased since 1986, ranging from 16% to an all-time historical low of 8% in 2001. However, incidents due to material weld failures tripled the next year, and continued rising, to 30% in 2010 and 2011. Absolute counts of pipeline incidents per year have been stable since 1986. What's going on with these material weld equipment failures???

A few possibilities to consider are:

1. normal wear and tear, given the weld materials' expected lifetimes;

2. poor maintenance;

3. higher corrosiveness of the pipeline contents than expected or than in the past.

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Noisy Information and Fundamental Disagreement

Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

Very noisy! "We study the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters for key macroeconomic variables."

 

Conclusion - There is great uncertainty about the short term AND long run, even by those who should know. Downward sloping GDP, in the U.S.A. and globally, is conceivable, rather than an extremely low likelihood catastrophic scenario.

This tells me that there is an unusual lack of confidence, and fear.

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Not Your Normal Data: The Impact of the Outlier

Outliers deviate from the norm. But outliers can tell us more about our data, how we gather it, and what is in it, if we examine the data set carefully.
Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

At least 5% of data contains anomalies. Some are errors, many are valid. Try using the IQR, inter-quartile range, to determine whether outlier data is valid. Deleting outliers is another way,  but there are better methods.

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Corrosion Testing Procedures Adapt to Rising Air Pollution

Corrosion Testing Procedures Adapt to Rising Air Pollution | Anomalies | Scoop.it
Intel develops new testing protocols after seeing uptick in corrosion levels on server boards and connectors used in Asia-Pacific region.

Via kenekaplan
Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

This won't affect Intel alone. I would expect others to take similar measures, and if not, would wonder why. This seems to be an important consideration for operations in that geograhic region, and soon enogh, everywhere.

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Anomaly Tracker

Anomaly Tracker | Anomalies | Scoop.it

For years, our researchers have analyzed and crunched numbers looking for outliers -- instances where a politician relies to an unusual degree on one group of donors, for instance,...

Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

This is a helpful tool for identifying possible anomalies, then ruling out any false positives. The means to do both are provided by the same web app. There's also a thorough caveat about proper data and contextual checks, before drawing conclusions from initial results. While I was in the process of checking why, for example, a particular Republican from MN had the most anomalies, I found that the dollar amounts, and scope of legislation, was much less than that of others, both Republican and Democrat, for the same state. The Anomaly Tracker provided the means to check all of it. They did a good job!

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High-speed Trading: Is It Time to Apply the Brakes?

How fast is high-frequency stock trading? In the time it takes to read this sentence, tens of thousands of high-speed, computer-automated transactions can occur. Winning traders edge out rivals by intervals measured in nanoseconds. Fans of the practice say that high-frequency traders add crucial liquidity to the stock market. Critics dispute that claim and highlight, instead, lurking perils for the global financial system.


Via Complexity Digest
Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

Yes! It IS time for some greater introspection about this, before there are even worse problems. Right now, there is very little understanding of risks to most people, including the voting public. European regulators seem to have a more realistic view and be willing to act upon it than in the U.S.A.

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Ellie Kesselman Wells's comment, January 27, 2013 1:45 PM
Yes! ;o) It is time. Thank you!
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Did the CIO have a Kodak moment?

JPMorgan's Chief Investment Office was given an edict to try to reduce risk-weighted assets, as part of a firm-wide initiative in the face of regulatory changes...

 

Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

The default of Kodak in January 2012 was a credit event that would certainly have influenced JP Morgan's CIO's decisions leading up to the "London Whale" in May 2012. Eastman Kodak was part of many credit default swap indices. Kodak's filing for bankruptcy on January 19th led to a variety of idiosyncratic risk exposures in JPM's synthetic credit portfolio.

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Empirical Studies of Conflict

Empirical Studies of Conflict | Anomalies | Scoop.it

 

 

 

 

 


Via M. Edward (Ed) Borasky
Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC) is a new resource for identifying, then analyzing conflict, insurgency or civil war data. It should be helpful for geopolitical risk assessment including changing trends in global political violence.

more...
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The Protectionism of Food Safety Standards in International Agricultural Trade

The Protectionism of Food Safety Standards in International Agricultural Trade | Anomalies | Scoop.it
Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

Iowa State University used compliance with Maximum Residue Levels of pesticides in food as the basis for a proxy index of trade protectionism by country. An index value of 1.0 means there are no trade barriers. Values greater than 1.0 indicate magnitude of relative protectionism.


Values less than 1.0 are anomalous and potentially harmful, by under-protecting the health of consumers. The index value for the U.S. is slightly less than 1.0.

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Uh-oh

Uh-oh | Anomalies | Scoop.it

HIGHER profits are generally seen as the most positive factor for stock markets. Over time, such profits should lead to more cash flows for investors...

Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

Profits rebounded strongly since the 2009 recession, and relative to U.S. GDP. They approached post-1945 highs.

 

Profits are up, but stock prices are anomalously high relative to profits. Let p/e = the ratio of profit to common equity price. A stock with a high p/e implies market expectation of rapid future profit growth. The same applies to the overall market. It is concerning that operating profits have fallen during the past year, see graph, yet stock prices remain elevated and  p/e has fallen, precipitously.

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Making some Noise about Signals: The Benefits of Predictive Analytics

Making some Noise about Signals: The Benefits of Predictive Analytics | Anomalies | Scoop.it

Adoption of predictive analytics has not taken off as one may have, well, predicted.

Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

Those who don't plan to begin using predictive analytics until 2015 or later are now the largest group in the community, and greater (proportionally) than in the previous two years.

 

"The media’s love affair with data-driven predictions has not proven infectious in the Business Intelligence community."

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Une erreur de stratégie et un manque de vision...

Nokia, Blackberry, Motorola… Pourquoi tous ces grands noms de l’industrie technologique ont-ils mis un genou en terre? Et pour d’autres être phagocyter?


Via Hugues Rey
Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

Google announced that it sold its Motorola operations, but not patents, to Lenovo yesterday.

IBM announced the sale of its low end server business to Lenovo yesterday.

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Earnings Roundup: Company-Issued Guidance at Its Most Negative Level on Record

Earnings Roundup: Company-Issued Guidance at Its Most Negative Level on Record | Anomalies | Scoop.it

The current N/P earnings guidance ratio of 11.4 for Q4 2013 is the worst on record.

Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

S&P 500 companies have issued negative expected earnings guidance 103 times and positive guidance only 9 times. This 11.4 negative-to-positive (N/P) ratio is the highest (worst) on record, ever. The highest N/P ratio prior to this quarter was 6.8 for Q1 2001. 

* The data is incomplete, as it was collected in late November.

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North Korea: Witness to Transformation | Slave to the Blog: Economic Priorities

North Korea: Witness to Transformation | Slave to the Blog: Economic Priorities | Anomalies | Scoop.it

Today, we report on economic news and analysis that reveals regime priorities.

Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

This mobile subscriber time-series data doesn't make sense!

~ 2 million mobile subscribers is equivalent to 1 in 8 North Koreans owning a phone.  

~ In North Korea, mobile phones cost $170 to $700.

~ North Korea's GDP per capita is only $5 per day.

 38North.org analyzes in more detail, without a conclusive explanation.

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Win-Vector Blog » Estimating rates from a single occurrence of a rare event

Win-Vector Blog » Estimating rates from a single occurrence of a rare event | Anomalies | Scoop.it
Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

The suggested way uses survival analysis rather than event rate.

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Q3 2013 Sees Highest Catastrophe Bond Issuance in 15 years

Q3 2013 Sees Highest Catastrophe Bond Issuance in 15 years | Anomalies | Scoop.it

NASDAQ - NEW YORK  6 Nov 2013

Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

What happened 15 years ago, during Q3 1998? Fears regarding Y2K maybe? I'd go have a look at that.

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US NRC proposes rule

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission proposes rulemaking on nuclear emergency preparedness.

Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

I would think that the NRC would have this well covered by now:

   * NRC has identified a lack of regulatory requirements in the areas of           severe accident management guidelines and supporting procedures.

What was the basis for dissent?

   * Four of the staffers agreed with the revised rules, one did not.

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Bermuda Triangle of Space: The South Atlantic Anomaly Threatens Satellites

Bermuda Triangle of Space: The South Atlantic Anomaly Threatens Satellites | Anomalies | Scoop.it
Much fanfare accompanied the Sept. 25, 2010, launch of the Air Force’s Space Based Space Surveillance satellite.
Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

It immediately went offline (though fixed, finally, in August 2012). The malfunction was due to a high-energy, ionizing radiation cloud, identified in 1958 by James Van Allen, when Sputnik I's instruments were also affected. He believed the cause to be anomalous radiation, which led to his discovery of the Van Allen radiation belts. The innermost belt dips closest to Earth above an area 300 km east of Brazil, at 200 km altitude, because the Earth's magnetic field is weakest there. On 8 Mar 2012, the Earth's upper atmosphere experienced the disruptive effects of solar flares. 2013 is the apex of that 11-year solar cycle, Once it has past, we'll only have the more predictable though not well-understood effects of the South Atlantic Anomaly to contend with.

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Dropping the Call in New York City

Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

Interactive graphic via WSJ: New York City-area cell phone service has a 97% success rate. Yet failed calls in a recent Nielsen test show patterns along roadways and various city neighborhoods and suburban counties. The cause? Unclear.

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In Search Of An Absolute Strategy

In Search Of An Absolute Strategy | Anomalies | Scoop.it
Most hedge funds claim to produce positive absolute returns. The reality is sobering: most strategies still largely depend on stock market performance and those not incorporating equities haven't kept their promises either.
Ellie Kesselman Wells's insight:

Natural motivation for a brief discussion of skew and kurtosis

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