Research reveals large increases in population expected in the next three decades need not result in widespread hunger.
The world’s existing cropland could feed at least 3 billion extra people if it were used more efficiently, a new study has found, showing that the large increases in population expected in the next three decades need not result in widespread hunger.
More than half of the fertiliser currently poured on to crops in many countries is wasted, according to the study. About 60% of the nitrogen applied to crops worldwide is not needed, as well as about half of the phosphorus, an element whose readily available sources are dwindling.
Cutting waste even by modest amounts would also feed millions, the authors found: between one-third and a half of the viable crops and food produced from them around the world are wasted, in the developing world usually because of a lack of infrastructure such as refrigerated transport, and in the rich world because of wasteful habits.
The study, published in the peer-review journal Science and led by scientists at the University of Minnesota in the US, suggested that a focus on staple crops such as wheat and rice in key countries, including China, India, the US, Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan and Europe, would pay off in terms of producing more food for the world’s growing population. Most forecasts are that the world will number more than 9 billion people by 2050, up from about 7 billion people today.
Looking after water could also yield vast dividends, the report found: if the water used for irrigation was pinpointed more efficiently to where it is needed, then much more could be grown, but currently much of it is sprayed uselessly over crops. Between 8% and 15% of the water currently used could be saved, the study suggested.
But the research also found that at least 4 billion people could be fed with the crops we currently devote to fattening livestock, fuelling the argument that the over-reliance on meat in the west and among the growing middle classes in the developing world is an increasing problem when it comes to feeding the world.