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Rescooped by António F Fonseca from Nice and Complex
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IEEE - 2014 Second World Conference on Complex Systems (WCCS)


Via Bryan Knowles
António F Fonseca's insight:

Complex Systems are going west.

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Zipf's Law for All the Natural Cities around the World

Two fundamental issues surrounding research on Zipf's law regarding city sizes are whether and why Zipf's law holds. This paper does not deal with the latter issue with respect to why, and instead investigates whether Zipf's law holds in a global setting, thus involving all cities around the world. Unlike previous studies, which have mainly relied on conventional census data, and census- bureau-imposed definitions of cities, we adopt naturally and objectively delineated cities, or natural cities, to be more precise, in order to examine Zipf's law. We find that Zipf's law holds remarkably well for all natural cities at the global level, and remains almost valid at the continental level except for Africa at certain time instants. We further examine the law at the country level, and note that Zipf's law is violated from country to country or from time to time. This violation is mainly due to our limitations; we are limited to individual countries, and to a static view on city-size distributions. The central argument of this paper is that Zipf's law is universal, and we therefore must use the correct scope in order to observe it. We further find that this law is reflected in the distribution of cities: the number of cities in individual countries follows an inverse power relationship; the number of cities in the first largest country is twice as many as that in the second largest country, three times as many as that in the third largest country, and so on. 

 

Zipf's Law for All the Natural Cities around the World
Bin Jiang, Junjun Yin, Qingling Liu

http://arxiv.org/abs/1402.2965


Via Complexity Digest
António F Fonseca's insight:

This is a problem almost a century old, Zip's law was formulated in the 40's with English words.

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Epidemiological modeling of online social network dynamics

António F Fonseca's insight:

Very good idea: validating epidemic models with Google Trends. It seems Facebook is declining. But Facebook replied: https://www.facebook.com/notes/mike-develin/debunking-princeton/10151947421191849

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Rescooped by António F Fonseca from Papers
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The Future Is Cities

The Future Is Cities | Aggregate Intelligence | Scoop.it

Cities around the world are growing faster than you can say megalopolis. More than half the world lives in cities, and by 2050, it will be two-thirds. In China alone, 300 million people will move to the city within the next 15 years, and to serve them, China must build the equivalent of the entire built infrastructure of the United States by 2028.
At the same time, 250 million new urban dwellers are expected in India and 380 million in Africa. Even though cities will soon account for 90 percent of population growth, 80 percent of global CO2, and 75 percent of energy consumption, more and more, it’s where people want to live.
Why? Because it’s where 80 percent of the wealth is created, and it’s where people find opportunities, especially women in the developing world. But beyond basic needs from housing to jobs, how do we enjoy the benefits of the city—like cafes, art galleries, restaurants, cultural facilities—without the traffic, crowding, crime, pollution, and disease?

 

http://spectrum.mit.edu/articles/the-future-is-cities/ ;


Via Complexity Digest
António F Fonseca's insight:

Living in cities is efficient and less costly to the natural environment.

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Eli Levine's curator insight, February 8, 2:47 PM

Personally, I'd rather get us off the notion in our highest levels of policy making that money-making and monetary gain is the pinnacle of achievement for the individual in a given society.

 

But this appears to be a new front that's forming for our governments (not just the Federal, in the US) to tackle.

 

And it's going to, unfortunately, take us a relatively long time to figure this stuff out in our usual incomplete and sub-optimal manner.

 

I've got no evidence to suggest that we're going to do it otherwise.

 

Wish it wasn't the case.  But there you go.

 

Think about it.

Rescooped by António F Fonseca from CoCo: Collective Dynamics of Complex Systems Research Group
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Complex Systems in the Arts & Humanities

Collective Dynamics of Complex Systems Research Group Seminar Series October 23, 2013 Thomas Lombardi (Computing and Information Studies, Washington and Jefferson…

Via Hiroki Sayama
António F Fonseca's insight:

Very interesting presentation of the scientific analysis of art and literature.

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Super Bowl Ad Chart: Who's Buying What in Super Bowl 2014

super bowl xlviii: ad age's chart of every advertiser in the upcoming super bowl, their creative plans and the agencies behind the scenes.
António F Fonseca's insight:

The 30 second most expensive advertising time should happen today.

Human attention costs money. From the attention needed for the caring in early childhood to the needed attention to convince a consumer, human attention may be the scarcest resource of humanity.

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Rescooped by António F Fonseca from Philosophy and Complexity
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Interdisciplinary Symposium on Complex Systems


Via John Symons
António F Fonseca's insight:

Just before ECCS2014 in September and also in Italy.

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John Symons's curator insight, January 29, 8:05 PM

Please consider sending a paper/poster

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SFI working paper picked as a top business article in 2013

SFI working paper picked as a top business article in 2013 | Aggregate Intelligence | Scoop.it
António F Fonseca's insight:

The paper aims to analise the foundations of economics as a complexity science.

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Rescooped by António F Fonseca from e-Xploration
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Le compost de l'intelligence collective | #CI Intelligence Collective Holomidale

Le compost de l'intelligence collective | #CI Intelligence Collective Holomidale | Aggregate Intelligence | Scoop.it
Luc Schuiten, les villes de demain   Il ne faut pas opposer l'ancien système de l'intelligence pyramidale, mourant, à celui, naissant, de l'intelligence collective holomidale. J'entends tout l...

Via Nathalie Carpentier, Claude Emond, luiy
António F Fonseca's insight:

Powerful idea : all new regimes only evolve from and within old ones not ab initio.

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luiy's curator insight, January 26, 7:49 AM

Il ne faut pas opposer l’ancien système de l’intelligence pyramidale, mourant, à celui, naissant, de l’intelligence collective holomidale. J’entends tout le temps des gens dire que même s’il y a une innovation sociale indéniable, les outils demeurent le monopole des organisations à intelligence collective pyramidale, faites pour faire du profit et pour contrôler. Les gens qui disent cela opposent des systèmes politiques dans une vision intellectuelle des idéologies. Mes recherches se contentent d’observer l’évolution, pas d’argumenter si tel ou tel système politique devrait prévaloir. De manière pragmatique et concrète, on a une loi du vivant : tout nouvel écosystème doit pousser sur l’ancien. L’ancien, tout en rejetant le nouveau, lui offre les briques fondamentales ainsi que le compost issu de sa propre décomposition. Ses manifestations paroxystiques –plus de concentration des pouvoirs et de l’argent, plus de normalisation, etc– provoquent également une dynamique d’évolution pour ceux qui veulent s’extraire de cette matrice. Ainsi l’intelligence collective holomidale, en attendant de devenir un écosystème social autonome, pousse-t-elle sur le terreau de l’intelligence collective pyramidale. Il y a un processus fractal, complexe et non-linéaire.

 

 

Claude Emond's comment, January 26, 8:25 AM
Le mécanisme décrit (bâtir sur les anciennes fondations) est celui décrit dans la «spyrale dynamique» de Graves, Beck et récupéré par Wilber dans les stages de développement de son modèle du monde AQAL. Je vais vous scooper quelques sites et ouvrages là dessus, au cas où c'est un peu nouveau pour vous :)
Dominique Marot's curator insight, February 7, 5:12 AM

Les grands changements passent par une petite minorité...

Rescooped by António F Fonseca from Complexity - Complex Systems Theory
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▶ On the Nature of Causality in Complex Systems, George F.R. Ellis - YouTube

Big Bang cosmology, chemical and biological evolutionary theory, and associated sciences have been extraordinarily successful in revealing and enabling us to understand the development of the universe from the Planck era to the present, as well as the emergence of complexity, life, and consciousness here on Earth. After briefly sketching this amazing story, and the key characteristics of nature, this paper will reflect on the different types and levels of causality involved -- stressing the important and pervasive role of highly differentiated and dynamic relationships and networks of relationships. Philosophical considerations build on and enrich scientific ones to probe these relationships. They also take us beyond the limits of strictly scientific methodology to consider and model -- however inadequately -- the ultimate sources of existence and order. This is the issue of creation, which introduces another very different -- and transcendent -- level of causality. We show that this is compatible with the -- and even essential to -- the causalities operative in nature, including those of quantum cosmology, if we acknowledge the limits of physics.

This lecture was delivered by George Ellis during the 16th Kraków Methodological Conference "The Causal Universe", May 17-18, 2012.


Via Bernard Ryefield
António F Fonseca's insight:

Very interesting from the philosophical point of view.

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Andrew Glynn's curator insight, January 14, 8:37 AM

As I keep repeating ad nauseum, bottom up causality doesn't work when you go from things of a lower genera (subsystems) to things of a higher genera (system, which may themselves be subsystems of even higher genera).

Zaphod Beeblebrox's curator insight, January 30, 1:39 PM

This really brings up the question - what is the nature of choice inherent in the universe?  If causality defines itself as the operation of a cause onto a single, definable effect, then how does it relate to the POSSIBILITES that exist as a consequence of probability and human limitation?  In other words, can physics be the perpatrator of - and therefore the potential predictor of - what can be viewed as choice as an inexorable consequence of the surrounding conditions?

Eli Levine's curator insight, March 25, 10:59 PM

I've said it several times before.

 

It's going to take a change in the logic of politics, a different program, as it were, to operate and produce a new base level of hardware.  We are bound by some of the lower levels of physics, biology and psychology and the realities of the economic market.  These are the lower level, mechanistic laws that have to be obeyed first, in order to realize what ought to be a common goal of leading relatively happy, prosperous, sustainable and resilient lives.

 

But the politics, by engaging in a different logic that's not meant to benefit only the well to do, will ultimately save itself from collapse and destruction (ironically, the big goal for conservatives, who are so keen on implementing these boot-licking, elite worshipping and poor-punishing programs and policies) and produce a new effect from the established lower level laws that could, potentially, mitigate against major economic and social collapses that, ultimately, ruins the politics as well.

 

Way cool stuff here.  Very relevant for government and governing policy.

 

Think about it.

Rescooped by António F Fonseca from Complex World
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Twitter Trends Help Researchers Forecast Viral Memes

Twitter Trends Help Researchers Forecast Viral Memes | Aggregate Intelligence | Scoop.it

What makes a meme— an idea, a phrase, an image—go viral? For starters, the meme must have broad appeal, so it can spread not just within communities of like-minded individuals but can leap from one community to the next. Researchers, by mining public Twitter data, have found that a meme's “virality” is often evident from the start. After only a few dozen tweets, a typical viral meme (as defined by tweets using a given hashtag) will already have caught on in numerous communities of Twitter users. In contrast, a meme destined to peter out will resonate in fewer groups.

 


Via Claudia Mihai
António F Fonseca's insight:

Impressive amount of data extracted in only one month, impressive algorithm implementation with such amount of data, not so impressive conclusions.

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june holley's curator insight, January 23, 8:31 AM

Some important ideas here for people interested in change.

Premsankar Chakkingal's curator insight, January 30, 8:58 AM

Forecasting the Future Twitter Trends in hashtags

Christian Verstraete's curator insight, February 3, 4:48 AM

Twitter, what happens when things go viral?

Rescooped by António F Fonseca from Non-Equilibrium Social Science
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How Can the Study of Complexity Transform Our Understanding of the World?

How Can the Study of Complexity Transform Our Understanding of the World? | Aggregate Intelligence | Scoop.it

The “study of complexity” refers to the attempt to find common principles underlying the behavior of complex systems—systems in which large collections of components interact in nonlinear ways. Here, the term nonlinear implies that the system can’t be understood simply by understanding its individual components; nonlinear interactions cause the whole to be “more than the sum of its parts.”

 

How Can the Study of Complexity Transform Our Understanding of the World?

Melanie Mitchell

https://www.bigquestionsonline.com/content/how-can-study-complexity-transform-our-understanding-world


Via Complexity Digest, Complejidady Economía, NESS
António F Fonseca's insight:

Wonderful and clarifying text.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, January 22, 11:20 PM

One of my favorite complexity authors.  An excerpt: "In the past it was widely assumed that such phenomena are hard to predict because the underlying processes are highly complex, and that random factors must play a key role.  However, Complex Systems science—especially the study of dynamics and chaos—have shown that complex behavior and unpredictability can arise in a system even if the underlying rules are extremely simple and completely deterministic.  Often, the key to complexity is the iteration over time of simple, though nonlinear, interaction rules among the system’s components."


This insight is at the core of Decision Intelligence, which adds an understanding of these emergent behaviors to the usual big data/predictive analytics/optimization stack.

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Google Music Timeline

Google Music Timeline | Aggregate Intelligence | Scoop.it
António F Fonseca's insight:

Popularity is becoming each day more popular.

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When You Fall in Love, This Is What Facebook Sees

When You Fall in Love, This Is What Facebook Sees | Aggregate Intelligence | Scoop.it
“During the 100 days before the relationship starts, we observe a slow but steady increase in the number of timeline posts shared between the future couple.”
António F Fonseca's insight:

We will assist new times in social science from now, we will see from now how people function in society just from social network data. This is just a breakthrough study.

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Connecting Dream Networks Across Cultures

Many species dream, yet there remain many open research questions in the study of dreams. The symbolism of dreams and their interpretation is present in cultures throughout history. Analysis of online data sources for dream interpretation using network science leads to understanding symbolism in dreams and their associated meaning. In this study, we introduce dream interpretation networks for English, Chinese and Arabic that represent different cultures from various parts of the world. We analyze communities in these networks, finding that symbols within a community are semantically related. The central nodes in communities give insight about cultures and symbols in dreams. The community structure of different networks highlights cultural similarities and differences. Interconnections between different networks are also identified by translating symbols from different languages into English. Structural correlations across networks point out relationships between cultures. Similarities between network communities are also investigated by analysis of sentiment in symbol interpretations. We find that interpretations within a community tend to have similar sentiment. Furthermore, we cluster communities based on their sentiment, yielding three main categories of positive, negative, and neutral dream symbols.

António F Fonseca's insight:

Very interesting research work based on web content.

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Eli Levine's curator insight, February 12, 1:22 PM

Indeed, this does appear to, once again, support the notion that we are of one species with the same basic cultural roots at the core of each of our socieites.

 

Just look at the similarities of religious schools of thought.  Everything from Pagan beliefs in Europe, to the Abrahamic religions of Judaism, Christianity and Islam, to the Eastern religions of Hinduism, Buddhism, Sikhism, Jainism and the Chinese schools of thought: Confucism and Daoism.  They all center around, once again, to the notion that we ought to be treating everybody well and with a basic level of respect. 

 

This appears to be an almost universal phenomenon within our species, across cultures and within them.

 

However, it's a shame that there are so many who are caught in the conservative way of thinking that is more like our chimp ancestors than as actual human beings.

 

What is the purpose of being so tribal and petty about your interactions with other human beings, when it costs you so much on the material and non-material levels?  And, why do they persist in these ways of thinking which cause damage to them, in light of the constant evidence that they are wrong, both on a perceptive level and on a behavioral level?

 

Think about it.

 

 

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Power, Privacy, and the Internet

Power, Privacy, and the Internet | Aggregate Intelligence | Scoop.it
On October 30–31, 2013, The New York Review of Books held a conference at Scandinavia House in New York City on the internet's transformative effect on our lives.
António F Fonseca's insight:

Is The Cloud a 'Black Cloud' or will there be some silver linings?

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Quantifying Information Flow During Emergencies

Recent advances on human dynamics have focused on the normal patterns of human activities, with the quantitative understanding of human behavior under extreme events remaining a crucial missing chapter. This has a wide array of potential applications, ranging from emergency response and detection to traffic control and management. Previous studies have shown that human communications are both temporally and spatially localized following the onset of emergencies, indicating that social propagation is a primary means to propagate situational awareness. We study real anomalous events using country-wide mobile phone data, finding that information flow during emergencies is dominated by repeated communications. We further demonstrate that the observed communication patterns cannot be explained by inherent reciprocity in social networks, and are universal across different demographics.

 

Quantifying Information Flow During Emergencies
Liang Gao, Chaoming Song, Ziyou Gao, Albert-László Barabási, James P. Bagrow & Dashun Wang

Scientific Reports 4, Article number: 3997 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep03997


Via Complexity Digest
António F Fonseca's insight:

Extensive study of information bursts in emergency situations, comparative analysis against other high arousal events like a rock concert is very instructive.

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Rescooped by António F Fonseca from Non-Equilibrium Social Science
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Puppies! Now that I’ve got your attention, complexity theory

Animal behavior isn't complicated, but it is complex. Nicolas Perony studies how individual animals -- be they Scottish Terriers, bats or meerkats -- follow simple rules that, collectively, create larger patterns of behavior. And how this complexity born of simplicity can help them adapt to new circumstances, as they arise.

 

http://www.ted.com/talks/nicolas_perony_puppies_now_that_i_ve_got_your_attention_complexity_theory.html


Via Complexity Digest, Jorge Louçã, NESS
António F Fonseca's insight:

The guy seems to be confessing some obscure personal sin but the talk is very interesting.

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Introduction to Complex Systems: Patterns in Nature

This video provides a basic introduction to the science of complex systems, focusing on patterns in nature. (For more information on agent-based modeling, vi...

Via Lorien Pratt
António F Fonseca's insight:

Agent based modeling still is the best tool to understand complex systems when mathematical modeling gets very complicated.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, January 30, 6:35 PM

This is a great introduction to the idea of emergent behavior from complex systems.  Many people don't realize that if individuals have very simple behaviors, there can be very complex behaviors when those individuals act in a group.  Understanding these emergent patterns is critical for good decision making, because you need to know how the decision you make will set other elements in the system in motion.  More and more, our social, economic, political, climate, and other realities have this characteristic.   This video focuses on agent-base complex systems, such flocks of birds, schools of fish, or even nanobot swarms to cure cancer. 

Liz Rykert's curator insight, February 10, 7:25 PM

Always looking for good resources to introduce complexity science to others. This looks great. 

Ian Biggs, MAIPM, CPPE's curator insight, April 16, 8:08 PM

I recently conducted a series of workshops on the subject of 'Complex Project Management - Navigating through the unknown'. This clip provides a great introduction to complex systems and for those interested in Complexity Science, this clip is worth 7:52 of your time.

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Google raises concerns with purchase of 'strong' artificial intelligence developer - allvoices

Google raises concerns with purchase of 'strong' artificial intelligence developer - allvoices | Aggregate Intelligence | Scoop.it
NEWS.com.au
Google raises concerns with purchase of 'strong' artificial intelligence developer
allvoices
Mountain View claims they are building on a chance to break into the field of industry automation, not our collective consciousness.
António F Fonseca's insight:

The owner of a significant portion of earth's curiosity patrimony is turning into deep AI.

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Rescooped by António F Fonseca from visualizing social media
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What Social Networks Should You Use in 2014? [INFOGRAPHIC]

What Social Networks Should You Use in 2014? [INFOGRAPHIC] | Aggregate Intelligence | Scoop.it
We’re now into a whole new year – but which social networks should have your full attention this year?

Via Lauren Moss
António F Fonseca's insight:

Good up to date report on global social networking.

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Amy Williamson's curator insight, February 5, 5:43 AM

A must read for anyone working in social media!

Marianne Naughton's curator insight, February 20, 1:54 PM

Thanks

Monica S Mcfeeters's curator insight, March 30, 9:16 AM

Do you wonder where to put most of your online time for the best reach to viewers? Here is helpful info to help you decide.

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Complexity Rising: From Human Beings to Human Civilization, a Complexity Profile | Yaneer Bar-Yam

Complexity Rising: From Human Beings to Human Civilization, a Complexity Profile | Yaneer Bar-Yam | Aggregate Intelligence | Scoop.it

It is generally recognized that life is becoming more complex. This article analyzes the 
human social environment using the "complexity profile," a mathematical tool for 
characterizing the collective behavior of a system. The analysis is used to justify the 
qualitative observation that complexity of existence has increased and is increasing. The 
increase in complexity is directly related to sweeping changes in the structure and 
dynamics of human civilization—the increasing interdependence of the global economic 
and social system, and the instabilities of dictatorships, communism and corporate 
hierarchies. Our complex social environment is consistent with identifying global human 
civilization as an organism capable of complex behavior that protects its components 
(us) and which should be capable of responding effectively to complex environmental 
demands


Via Bernard Ryefield
António F Fonseca's insight:

Another way of seeing complexity.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, January 25, 9:47 PM

This is so important!  We all feel that things are becoming more complex, now here's some evidence to show we're right. And as we suspected, it comes from increasing interdependence and "sweeping changes in the structure and dynamics of civilization".   Thought so!

Eli Levine's curator insight, February 5, 4:34 PM

You see this in the devolution of religion from hierarchically based forms of morality.

 

Or on the decentralization of wealth from a handful of individuals to the general masses.

 

Or the collaborative work of government, rather than the command and control central systems that dominated the 20th century.

 

We're evolving.

 

And we've only begun this journey.

 

Think about it.

Anastasia Baranowski's curator insight, April 3, 2:40 PM

Dear Sirs,

 

I think that people from different nationalities have to have marriages between different nationalities. The idea is multinational planet, where people live everywhere they want and they don't have any ideas of nationalizm or rasism. In this case all people can live in peace and harmony. No wars, only worldwide police. Economical development is possible only if people from different countries can come to each other and co-operate. The most important problem behind the human race is ecological! All people on the planet have to co-operate and communicate and help each other to save the planet and themselves and future generations!

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Does the internet promote fairness of income distribution?

Does the internet promote fairness of income distribution? | Aggregate Intelligence | Scoop.it

(Phys.org) —The question of how an economic system should be structured in order to best promote fairness and equality is one of the most debated subjects of all time. By approaching the complexities of this question from the field of network science, researchers from MIT and other institutions have found that the average degree to which individuals in a society are connected to each other can crucially affect the fairness of income distribution.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-01-internet-fairness-income-video.html#jCp


Via NESS
António F Fonseca's insight:

Very interesting problem, see Matthew effect.

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Rescooped by António F Fonseca from Sistemas complejos
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éToile Platform

éToile Platform | Aggregate Intelligence | Scoop.it

The éToile Platform is an open, interactive, new way of sharing educational resources for Master and PhD levels in Complexity Sciences domains.

In different modules, students and researchers can:

check their knowledge using the étoile evaluation tests;interact with other people studying the same subjects;use the éToile facilities for studying and researching on the Internet;contribute for an ecology of pedagogical resources;certificated their mastery of a core curriculum in Complexity Sciences;interact with a worldwide community of students and scientific researchers within the CS-Digital Campus.


Via Bernard Ryefield, Complejidady Economía
António F Fonseca's insight:

Portugal is on the first front in Complex Systems Studies.

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Next civilization: countering complexity and extreme events

Dirk Helbing Next civilization: countering complexity and extreme events. TEDx Martigny 2013/09/26

Via Complexity Digest
António F Fonseca's insight:

You should listen to this somehow strange speach, strange, perhaps exotic, but very wise and visionary.

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John Symons's comment, January 19, 1:58 PM
Dirk needs to read Oskar Morgenstern.